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Posts posted by englishoak
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Imagine Thailand getting as concerned about 75 dead on the roads ?
Oh well
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38 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:sure it is...in a country like thailand, where tens of millions of people are leaving hand to mouth. they simply die quietly in their villaGES AND NOBODY counts them. the right thing to do is OPEN THE COUNTRY NOW !! yes hundreads will die daily from covid, but thousands will be saved from starvation.
Nobody ever died of starvation in Thailand,just dosnt happen.
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1 hour ago, The Cipher said:
I am surprised it took this long, to be honest. The myopic focus on case counts has been unhelpful all pandemic long and really only serves the function of scaring the general public.
From the point of view of SAGE sub division SPI-B Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours ( its specific role is influencing public perception & behaviour) That was exactly the conclusion and reason case counts were used so frequently. The purpose was to scare and intimidate thus making the public more malleable and readily willing to accept draconian measures, which would have otherwise met with more resistance and less effect
Right or wrong morally, in practice it seems to have worked on most.
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3 hours ago, placeholder said:I don't think that your projection is valid. Vaccination is still ongoing and while over 60% of the total population has received at least one vaccination, there's still a lot more to go. And those who are already fully vaccinated tend to be older and less healthy.
Projections that are picked up and spread by media nearly always showcase the worst case scenario as it always sells more news and it helps govs in control. There are no valid "projections" and anyone who has ever done them knows they are never even close, the same goofball who came up with the UK original said "projection" one Neil Ferguson ex sage projected 1/2 million dead in the first 6 months in UK alone when it began, he had to resign in disgrace btw. A good example of an OTT "projection" . Like Bird Flu,HIV,Ebola etc etc projections in the past were all OTT too and proven flawed.
The older and more vulnerable in the UK have now mostly been vaccinated.The young ( below 30 ) are at minor risk and below 18 virtually zero. the young adult population are better off gaining full natural herd immunity from a proper variant instead of a bit of DNA code to produce spike.
What is unlikely in the UK imo is Cov cases spiking to even 50k let alone 100k a day, why ? self testing has already been introduced and 90% of the gen pop will not bother for long, less random testing will be done and focus will move to testing only with symptoms.
Logistically as the PPE requirement and restrictions fade away so will self testing, self test kits supplies have already been cut back and will continue to be. Other health issues are now more a concern in the UK. Lack of health check ups, operations, early stage treatments etc leading to increased serious illness treatment and care needs such as cancer Dementia etc. Mental health issues going forward for many especially the very young has and will increase.
The UK public have had enough too and those in gov and control are increasingly coming under fire when they are caught flouting their own rules plus the economy can only take so much. It is time to get on with life, living with the cov risk can just be added to all the other things that "may" kill you.... That was always a certain at some future stage,the UK is now at that point.
Bottom line, imo this current panic pandemic far as the UK Gov are concerned is all but over. Lets hope Thailand isnt far behind but suspect it'll well into 2023 before any sense of normality there returns.
stay safe
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1 minute ago, placeholder said:
I overstated the case. There is some indication that the delta variant is more dangerous but it's still far from being a settled conclusion.
Dangerous in that its more transmissable not that its more deadly when contracted,big difference but a good use of the word dangerous,which is what articles do to attract attention.
Annyway,back on topic,no lockdowns wont work unless the time is used productively such as rolling out a comprehensive inoculation program whilst also allowing herd immunity to build within the population naturally by not totally shutting the doors .This is what the UK has done and Thailand/Oz others havnt
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Just now, placeholder said:
On the contrary, delta has been judged to be more dangerous than previous variants. What has changed in the UK is the large percentage of vaccinated persons.
Delta is just more transmissible thats all, data is showing those contracting delta both unvaccinated AND vaccinated have much less hospitalisation or serious effects, vaccinated or not. We can therefore conclude as the data shows Delta is much less lethal than previous strains.
Which is exactly what a successful virus does as it mutates to survive, the payoff is less lethality for more transmission,ie HIN1 and other previous deadly flu pandemic strains, all still with us but reduced to sometime seasonal inconveniences.
Nature is a wonderful thing and so is heard immunity.
PS there is no "vaccine" perse only flu type shots intended to mitigate the most serious effects in the most vulnerable demographic, thats all any of them actually claim to try and do.
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2 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:A bit off topic as it's the UK, but they are predicting 100,000 cases a day once the restrictions are lifted. But with most people vaccinated the death rate is minimal. How a country, a government, can find 100,000 cases a day acceptable is beyond me.
Cases aren't a concern , only death rates are and thats slowed right down to the point of below the 5 year average per annum...The pandemic far as being lethal is becoming less so with every varient, which is exactly what was expected,for the vast majority contracting delta its literally no more than a few cold symptoms.Sure there will be hospitalisations and death but a bad winter flu affects upto 20% of the population or about 10m contracting and killing 20k in 6 mths over winter some years...covid is now way below that...
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Id say the chances of a V rich couple who cant swim renting a place with or going near any place with a pool, let alone going in is highly unlikely...
RIP,the Island of death strikes again.
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1 hour ago, pookondee said:If you considered an infection rate of 10% in some places (other than India)
that means a massive 90% of people are locked up, no lives, no jobs,
threat of depression, mental illness, suicide,
cant travel
cant visit loved ones...
on and on
seems very unfair to me
Wont matter to most here, those who have pensions and arnt affected in the way most functioning families will be or are.
Be interesting to see how these same expats begging for lockdowns would react if their financial cushion was ripped away or suspended like so many working around the world have had happen....ill wager they wouldnt be so sanctimonious or comfy about things then.
Lockdowns might be ok in a country like Germany with full or almost full financial support from the gov for years yet still lockdowns havnt worked. All it does is delay and reemerge.
In Thailand its different and things would quickly become be very bad for those living one payday to the other also for the huge swath of population that are self employed/casual employed. Cant close markets in the boonies either for many get their food there daily or stop the farmers farming or pause farm production like a factory, many are dependent on migrant workers that simply cant afford to stop working etc or they will just leave. Many issues the west doesnt have to consider but Thailand does.
Unless the Thai gov is prepared to pick up a wages furlong tab similar to something the west is embracing its hard to see how any meaningful lockdown for even a short time could be tried let alone expected to be adhered to.
We shall see.
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Mama noodle time on the horizon.
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Chinese vaccine or Chinese virus ? tough call which carries more risk.
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1 minute ago, BenDeCosta said:
Actually, there is a huge question mark hanging over the efficacy of the covid tests that are currently available.
Indeed, but theres nothing to be done about that since its the method they choose to use.
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15 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:Here's some facts for you:
Photos show the devastation of the COVID-19 humanitarian crisis in India, where the crematoriums have been burning for so long they have started to melt
Pure media hyperbole, you are literally linking a media paper and calling it facts... why because the paper said so ?
Pictures dont explain context. Any picture of a cremation in India would freak people out when labelled as unusual. Unless your actually Indian then know there is nothing unusual about open cremations in India nor hard to find people in poor health or condition. They are everywhere and permanent.
30,000 + die in India every day, they have been through much much worse and crisis when millions have died of starvation, flooding, disease and all manner of disasters.. Covid is literally nothing when put in context and looked at calmly without the media hype.
You just want to be scared because ... no idea tbh
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Just expect to catch it and get on with your day.
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Just now, Jeffr2 said:
That number is wrong. I don't understand why some are so fixated on that fake number?
If you've had CV19. You have LIMITED immunity. Some studies say only for 6 months, and only for that variant. There are now over 2,000 variants of this virus. Some are much more dangerous than the original strains.
Best of luck. In the end, herd immunity won't get us back to "normal". And people like you don't help. We're all in this together.
The number is based on that 50% wont ever know they ever had it, its that dangerous ???? not my estimate but the WHO and its asymptomatic spreading clap trap modelling so i use it happily. Global population wise based on 7 billion its going to end up being a lot closer 99.9% non lethal rate and that would still be with a massive death toll figure of 7 million
Actually there are currently at least 10,000 estimated variants which will continue to increase exponentially as thats what viruses MUST do, mutate and spread... pretty soon the entire globe will become infected and it'll come back over and over and yknow what ? the jabs will always be behind the curve because of that. Youll have to get best guess jabs as mutations spread like the flue jab every year or less for the rest of your life and still not be safe, maybe a version in the future will mutate than is viral resistant and kills 99%. enjoy that worry. Or maybe itll go the way of every other pandemic and simply fade out with herd immunity like all other cov/rhino viruses in the past.
People like me ? ohhh you mean someone who dosnt think the way you do... gotcha ????
No we arnt all in it together, there are those who want to be scared and pretend this is something worth freaking out about thx to the media hype and those that dont...for me it wasnt before and hasnt been since, ive had far worse colds and is not a concern when compared to other conditions or disease risks... I also mountain climb, ride bikes, Dive and do all manner of dangerous things, eat what i want and even drink and enjoy the odd cigar...
We could also get hit by a global disaster tomorrow, develop cancer,drop dead or be killed in some manner or catch some other deadly disease, WW3 etc ... so naaa im not wasting my life worrying about something ive actually had that for healthy people is no big deal at all..
Stay worried and safe. ill get on with my day. ????
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If your fit, healthy with no underlaying conditions 99.5% you would be fine even if catching cv19...
Not interested in being a lab rat, already gained natural immunity through catching it, quarantined and now getting on with life.
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43 minutes ago, internationalism said:
in the UK within the last year 130k died of covid, yearly road deaths are only 2800.
so covid is over 40x higher risk.
in the UK 4.5mln became infected, many of them hospitalised, some of them for months and on ventilation.
Some of them, tens of thousands, are suffering long term effects of illness. As many and as bad as road accident survivors in thailand.
Thailand covid situation might be as bad over time, as in the other countries, when the uk, brasilian, south african strains do arrive sometimes and astrazeneca delivery would be delayed, ineffective for those strains or faulty (poor quality).
Actually they officially died With not Of, gov has been very careful with wording for a reason. Only last week they admitted at least 23% had no link to Covid in their deaths at all but were falsely added in. Also, not one person is recorded of dying from influenza in the past year in the UK, which of course is a statistical impossibility so its likely to to be even more mis reported covid deaths attributed. Hospitalisations did not get to the point of one special unit (nightingale ) being used or needed. Ventilators and the use of was also quickly identified as being the wrong treatment and as since been revised . But yes many less are killed on the roads in the UK but still far more die of cancer and heart disease or any the other top 10 reasons. In fact the UK past years total deaths even with covid is actually "below" the 5 year average. Amazing huh ? You can find that data at public health England.
Long term effects is still unknown as is much of the data and long term useful or effectiveness with any of the vaccines since the trails ARE the rollout. "strains" are in fact just mutations of the same original, which btw they have never isolated or been allowed to investigate or have data of by China where it indisputably originated, and yes that is a real problem with any new virus not having the original or isolated it. Variants will increase over time and this is a natural cycle of any virus as it disperses into the global population not something to be overly feared.
Its a terrible thing to live in fear and imo totally unnecessary. Yes its a thing, yes it can kill but we also live with every disease known and every strain throughout history today, we will simply add this to the list and get on with life,vaccines will not stop the pandemic imo only herd immunity and mutation to the point of it becoming as harmless to 99.9% of us as all the rest of the Rhino/Covid variations floating about out there.
People will always die of something. Being a Buddhist myself Its not a concern to me how.
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9 minutes ago, MasterBaker said:
sounds like a herd immunity will be a natural way for Thailand
Thats the only way for the world, always has been.
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1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:
Seems dire growth to me. The growth equal to say ONE house in London !
Yea but that house dosnt come with a certification mark in the Cantonese language by the Intellectual Property Department of Hong Kong.. so there ????
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10 hours ago, internationalism said:the thing is, the majority are seniors, and without chance for a vax within near future.
thai citizens have free tests, hospitalisation, medication, but that would be problematic to foreigners, so lower prospects for a fast and efficient help.
some insurance policies won't cover quarantine.
some people don't have any insurance, for example those over certain age are not taken by insurers or premiums are prohibitive, and many hundred thousands baht
I am well aware the risk and challenges of living anywhere in the 3rd or emerging world economy is what it is
Its still 99% overall survival rate chance, thats pretty good odds..... better than driving on the roads or stroke or cancer or in fact any of the top 10 causes of death, as for not having insurance and or illness, there is less risk of being hospitalised from c19 than having a stroke if over 75 or getting into serious a driving accident. Both of which costs are substantial when paying as Johnny foreigner. Dont know many over 75 who are insured, life as they say is a risk.
In fact the survival rate of c19 is very good even at advanced age. Get busy living the dream, tomorrow may never come.
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I smell fear on this board, dont worry 99% youll be fine even if you catch it... its all just fear mongering hysteria at this point.
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Dangerous variants come out after 9pm, rest of the day no problemo.
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Oh is it pin the tail on the covid donkey cases time again ? ????
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A mans man...wasnt afraid to speak his mind and have a jest and a wicked sense of humour coupled with a real sense of duty... not for snowflakes of course, those easily offended or without a sense of humour will no doubt whine about the few lines hes ridiculed for without even being aware of all the good the man has done over the past 80+ years in service to queen and country... respect Sir
You did a great job and you can now rest well.
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Thai borders to open up after mass vaccinations
in Thailand News
Posted
You could always take responsibility for yourself and pop back home and get it anytime, only a bit of effort required.