oldcpu

IMHO its not an easy call to make wrt timing. One can still find countries in the world that have a 3-week quarantine requirement for fully vaccinated foreign arrivals. Still, I speculate it won't be relatively too long until one will see the quarantine requirement for fully vaccinated and recently tested travelers lifted, and such travelers allowed in without quarantine. Note though, there will be other aspects for Thailand to address (and come up with an appropriate approach), if something like what Phuket has implemented in its sandbox is followed. Phuket also requires they travelers install a tracking app, and undergo multiple 'relatively' expensive COVID tests ... Phuket also requires travelers stay in an SHA+ certified hotel for some days before leaving which may be difficult to enforce if the the entire country is opened to travelers. I believe in the coming months we will learn how this is adopted.

No ... 400,000 is wrong. Simply wrong. The population of Phuket is closer to 600,000 (including children age 12-18) and quite possibly closer to 650,000 if all children included.

Well (1) there are MANY who are still not yet fully vaccinated, and (2) NONE of the vaccines, not one, are 100% effective at preventing infection - and NONE of the vaccines are 100% effective at preventing death. As opposed to preventing infections, the vaccines are better at reducing the risk of serious illness and they are better reducing the risk of death. So everyone does the best they can .... the situation is dynamic. Closing the island to only vaccinated (with no quarantine), is not a surprise, and many other places in the world are now adopting something similar, if one wishes to avoid a quarantine. And one can still find a country that require a 3-week quarantine, even IF fully vaccinated.

I suspect schools are still closed because the children can still catch and spread the virus (even if they tend to be more asymptomatic) and they can spread the virus to a large % of the population that have not yet been fully vaccinated. If a child catches the virus, brings it back home, and both parents catch the virus, who will look after the child? i.e. "the exercise", to provide better defense to society against the pandemic, is still ongoing. I would say that is 'the point' and its ongoing. Sadly there is no easy quick solution. That, and staying alive and reducing the pandemic spread, while % resistance to this pandemic (either via vaccine, or already having caught, or other (?) means) takes place.

I hope so - as I had my 1st AZ end-June, and go for my 2nd AZ in mid-September. I don't have much confidence in my 1 AZ jab (against Delta) but my hope is if my mid-Sep 2nd AZ jab takes place on schedule, then by October I should have some help from AZ to reduce risk of serious infection and reduce risk against death against this virus. Currently I mostly self isolate, and like some friends of mine, I also try to eat healthy, and stay physically fit. ... This pandemic has giving my 67-year old bones more motivation to go for a 5km jog early every morning - more motivation than I confess I had in the past.

My view is the weekly increasing numbers of new cases in Phuket (as compared to the rest of Thailand where we are now seeing decreases) is due to: 1. Phuket having less of a lock down/restriction (than the rest of Thailand), and 2. also due to Phuket vaccination numbers 'exaggerated via statistical spin' (ie many more people in Phuket still to be vaccinated), and 3. also due to the delta variant rendering infection catching protections hoped to be provided by Sinovac/AstraZeneca to be NOT as good (as these vaccines were against Alpha variant). I do note that Phuket has about 1/2 the # of deaths per infections (as the rest of Thailand on average) , and I speculate that is due to these vaccinations still helping to reduce serious symptoms and reduce deaths. Of course that is speculation on my part ... and as the days / weeks go by, likely we will see how far off , or how close, that speculation might be. This pandemic is very ugly in terms of how we are all being affected. .

I am happy to see some more statistics on the vaccines given in Phuket released (such was in this article) .... I wish that there was more such information provided..

As for antigen tests, a local, large chain pharmacy here has a sign (in Thai only) that says they will not sell antigen test kits. I asked why and the answer was: "The manager doesn't want sick people coming into the store," ... yet they sell ivermectin.... go figure. It is bizarre. I think thou, that some people who are not sick do buy ivermectin. I note I have an acquaintence, with opposite views from myself (where the friend is an anti-vaxer who has recovered from the virus) who is a big believer in ivermectin, and since his recovery, he takes ivermectin (on his own accord despite recommendations to the contrary) as a preventative to avoid being re-infected. I have another anti-vaxer friend, who has yet to be infected, who also takes invermectin as a preventative. My view is they are both taking a placebo, or worse. .... One thing they do have going for them is they both eating health and stay very fit, which is a far more effective measure than ivermectin IMHO. They didn't and don't listen to my recommendations to go get vaccinated.

Indeed - I think we all agree this is not good, ... this pandemic is global and it is hurting globally. I think we are all saddened by each and every death. Still, on average, Phuket has done better wrt % capita deaths than the Thailand average. Phuket - I note a total deaths 27 (since Apr 3) and 5,495 infected. So that is 0.49% of those infected died. Thailand (average) - I note currently a Thailand death toll at 12,948 during 3rd wave, and 1,265,659 cases. So that is 1.02% of those infected died. So if my 'back of the envelope' calculations are accurate, despite the very sad deaths in Phuket, and despite the disturbing weekly increasing number of new infections being discovered in Phuket, the Island is still doing better (by about 2x) (or half the # of deaths per capita infections) than the rest of Thailand on a per capita basis for the # of deaths.

Exclusively vaccinated with Sinovac is an exaggeration, although granted about 5x as many Sinovac as AstraZeneca doses were given in Phuket. But that is far from exclusively. Also, important to note wrt the hospitals, field hospitals, and hospitels in Phuket (which are at close to 80% and not full capacity), the VAST majority of those in such facilities have moderate to mild symptoms, and some with no symptoms. Likely (if not already started) Phuket will start sending people in the facilities (who are still infected but with no symptoms) home to a required 2 week or so self isolation, in order to free up more beds. They are already doing this in other provinces.

Further to this 600,000 estimate, I note now a recent Phuket news article https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php is stating a new target total of 547,584 representing the total registered population on the Island to be vaccinated. I assume that includes (in addition to nominal Phuket registered residents) migrant workers who registered for the vaccine, assume that includes expats who registered for the vaccine, assume that includes people from other provinces who registered in Phuket for the vaccine. Those are my assumptions. The question for me now, is does it include children? If one assumes 107,000 children under age-18, then how many are under age-12 ? and how many are age-12 to 18? And does the 547,584 include children age 12-to-18 ? This now has me thinking the population of Phuket, if children are included, could be anywhere from 600,000 to 650,000 (where the 600,000 assumes children age 12-to-18 are in the 547,584 number, and the 650,000 assumes no children under age-18 are in the 547,584 number). It makes me think even more - no one truly knows the exact population of Phuket at present time.

They do shut down or modify the road if people are constantly dying at that location.

I note the fear mongers about vaccine mixing can not point to one peer reviewed study saying the mixing assessed in the Spanish, UK, German (and other country studies) are dangerous. But they gripe and complain about studies out there now that conclude mixing in specific cases is beneficial. They can only fear monger about mixing vaccines - where for decades, in different vaccines, mixing has been shown in specific cases to be beneficial. But the fear mongers don't like to admit that. They just want to fear monger. Having typed the above, I do think, given how slow bureaucracy is to adapt to the rapidly evolving situation with this pandemic, that anyone who wishes to travel internatinally, if you have a choice, to think twice about mixing vaccines. Mixed vaccines tend to be accepted even less than regular vaccines, in many countries. For international travel, at present, I would recommend against COVID vaccine mixing.

There has also been mention (albeit not in the initial article) in Thailand of giving AstraZeneca as a booster to two Sinovac in Thailand. In fact, I have read articles of that being done already. Further - personal family experience: My niece, a front line nurse in Thailand (in a hospital that was over-booked with COVID patients), after 2 Sinovac, was booked for AstraZeneca as her booster jab. The day she went in for her AstraZeneca booster, she was given the choice, AstraZeneca or Pfizer? She chose Pfizer as a booster. Further, its not clear to me if the Philippines study on using AstraZeneca (and also other vaccines) as a mix with Sinovac is as a booster jab or as a second jab ? Also, as I mentioned already, I would be very surprised if China has not studied AstraZeneca as a 2nd jab, and as a booster - although i suspect China might have political issues in using a non-Chinese vaccine as a 2nd jab or booster. Sadly, there is a lot of politics associated with vaccine distribution.

Here is another article that claims Cambodia has mixed Sinvovac with AstraZeneca: https://news.yahoo.com/factbox-countries-weigh-mix-match-090454706.html I have not found any other references of countries doing this mixing - although I would surprised if China has not investigated this.

I also have not read of many (any?) cases, although I believe Cambodia is planning to mix Sinovac and AstraZeneca : https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/3143399/coronavirus-cambodia-mix-sinovac-astrazeneca-vaccine-shots-boosters Supposedly there is a Philippines study of mixing Sinovac with other vaccines, but I have not been able to find such: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/covid-19-vaccine-mixing-astrazeneca-pfizer/

Well - I know many Thais. Some believe - some don't believe. So when you say "No Thais" , IMHO you could not be more wrong.

Yes .. there has been Sinovac followed by AZ (2nd dose) study.

My Thai wife phoned the noted phone number (Chalong Hospital) and was told no change for those with 2nd jab appointments on 17 to 23 September. The lady she talked to at that number (Chalong hospital) recommended also checking the Chalong Hospital Facebook page as that is purportedly kept up to date. ... I just checked now ... and the Facebook page is consistent with what my wife was told. ... I note the page is all in Thai language.

There is a contact phone number on the paperwork they gave us when we received our first AZ jab back in late June. My Thai wife plans to phone that phnoe number tomorrow and see if she can learn anything. If she does what she says, I will report back on anything learned.

I think thou, one can remain on their Non-Immigration O or OA visa if doing volunteer work. One does need to meet other critieria, such as providing appropriate documentation to immigration (passport copy, fill in some custom form, evidence of a certain amount of funds, letter from employer where one is doing volunteer work, and address where one lives). I may have the details inexact - but I think it is something like that. Given the Immigration volunteers are working for immigration, I suspect this is rather simple requirement for these volunteers to meet. I assume immigration then given them the appropriate (work) permit to be volunteers supporting immigration.

I read that article in LeMonde (with help from Google Chrome translate) and I confess, I fail to see the contradiction.

This Phuket News article explains what happened wrt the vaccination (2nd jab) of my Thai wife's aunt being delayed: apparently the staff who were to give the vaccination, had been called to help conduct proactive screening in various areas [across the island]. Because of the staff exposure to people infected with the virus, it was thus deemed necessary to quarantine the officers and staff for 14 days. So it appears it was NOT a policy decision to delay the 2nd jab to increase AZ efficacy (by delaying jab) nor due to an AZ vaccine shortage of AZ vaccine doses that should currently be in Phuket - but rather it was a precaution due to the staff (who administer the vaccine) being exposed to the virus.

Sarcasm ... Not helpful IMHO. To me its obvious, more testing is needed so to give the local government better information as to the pandemic spread, to help them in optimizing their decisions.

As already pointed out - the vaccinations are mostly effective in preventing serious illness and in preventing death. They are NOT so effective in preventing infection. I think a more detailed look at the graphic in the first post is useful. The graphic for 25-August, that shows 189 new cases in Phuket (and 3 new Sandbox cases) also gives the current status of the 'hospital/field-hospital/hospitel' in Phuket, which I think is very useful. It notes 1,009 being treated, with facility to treat 1,473. Of this 1009, only 32 have serious infection (and in ICU or in positive-air-pressure rooms). 324 are being treated with mild symptoms in hospitals. and 393+260=653 have little to no symptoms (in field hospitals or "hospitels"). By my calculation that is ONLY 3.1% of those infected (via positive tests) are seriously ill. 32.1% have mild symptoms. 64.8% have little to no symptoms (despite having the virus). Unfortunately, the breakout of the 1009 number as to who are vaccinated (and with what vaccine) is not provided, but I speculate that the lower # of those seriously ill in the 1,009 suggests the vaccine distribution across Phuket has helped.