JAG

2 hours ago, champers said:

..stitch up masquerading as democracy?

Well, he is the EU Ambassador...

59 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

The military stepped in 5 years ago in a coup to take control, or as they say stop the fighting as it seemed to have no end.

As time went by the new "job" seemed to be interesting so they moved in a bit more furniture to make it homely.

The new look suited them nicely, so moved in the relatives, postponed election after election until all the chess pieces were in place then proceeded to have a fair election!

All that's happened is the incumbent leaders exchanged uniforms for suits... the mindset & policies will be the same... watch Thailand stagnate over the next 5 years, the rich/poor divide grow wider & commerce take a dive... these are neither business men not politicians, they are generals in pinstripe who bark orders and expect people to jump!

Yes, except that I would suggest that "stepping in to stop the fighting" was a cover story - after all they were instrumental in creating and sustaining the conditions which allowed the fighting.

I would also suggest that this was long in the planning, at least since it became obvious that Abhisit was going to lose to Yingluck in the 2011 election. Very likely, the germ of the idea, for what is effectively a rather close copy of the Myanmar/Burma style regime goes back a lot further.

21 minutes ago, wayned said:

He will never cancel the speech.  Look at the huge number of people that normally go to the center of DC to watch the 4th of July festivities.  They won't stay away because they don't like Trump and he will turn it into a "campaign rally" and claim that this was the biggest ever rally that any President ever had and his base will eat it all up!

You mean like the record crowds at his inaugeration?

9 hours ago, Ozman52 said:

I called that BS then and now. Why are all the claims coming from FFP and not from the minor parties or PTP? Who benefits from the unsupported accusations?

I don't think it is "bullshit", (unless your definition of bullshit extends to each and every opinion which does not agree with yours) but a plausible explanation of what has happened. 

I will try to explain my reasoning again.

The "traditional opposition" is essentialy class and geographically based - the rural poor in North and North Eastern Thailand. Their focus is on the movement and party created by one man - Thaksin Shinawatra - now in exile less powerful but an enduring influence. They fielded two parties, in an electoral pact which prevented them from running against each other. Traditional old fashioned repression, banning effective campaigning, harassing political activity, assorted gerrymandering, disqualifying candidates on the flimsiest of pretenses and, as a coup de grace, banning the smaller of the two parties within the timeframe which prevented an alternative or replacement from standing, served to hamstring this faction, although they still won more seats than anyone else in the parliament!

Future Forward is different, for two reasons. First it is an ideas based party, which attracts support through new ideas, concepts and intentions for government rather than the tribal links of more traditional parties, which frankly rely on their traditional policies. Secondly it is far more disparate, and relies much more on social media and the internet to make its arguments and communicate with its supporters; and is for both these reasons therefore far less susceptible to the more conventional political oppression employed against Pheu Thai. It won a significant number of seats, despite the "post-election adjustments" of the Electoral Commission, and worryingly for the pro-junta alliance, draws much of its support from what they see as their people - the educated metropolitan middle class. It has now joined in alliance with the "Thaksin faction" to form a large opposition block in parliament, an alliance which if, as is likely, becomes more popular and effective, and endures beyond the next election, may be able to break the junta's grip on power. It must be the stuff of Prayuts (and others) nightmares - an alliance between the rural poor and a young, educated, liberal (or radical) metropolitan political movement. What are the Dinosaurs to do?

This opposition alliance must be broken, the most effective way would be to discredit Future Forward. How better than to "persuade" some of its MPs to vote (in a public ballot) for Prayut as Prime Minister? That is why I suggest the advances were made, not because the votes were needed. Prayut's election was already in the bag, for reasons we all understand. That is why only Future Forward were targetted. The rest simply don't matter, Future Forward must be discredited, What might be described as traditional allegations of tardiness in transferring share ownership, sedition by giving a lift to someone who may have been a protestor, and making defamatory posts on facebook aren't having any effect.

So there you have it: an argued logical reason for this attempted bribery. Machiavellian perhaps, but this is Thai politics! You may not agree with my analysis, there are several others on this forum who I know will disagree, but please don't dismiss it as bullshit, it is entirely credible.

7 hours ago, madmen said:

...I think I need a bucket

A good idea. If you put it over your head you won't be able to see what is going on, and everything will be alright...

53 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Naturally you have conclusive proof of this and will publish it in the MSM?

 

If not then bovine excretia springs to mind.

I think it comes under the rather worn heading of: "But everyone knows that Thaksin..."

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

The last and only hope for Thailand. Doesn't look good, they'll throw him in the slammer one way or another or he simply "disappears".

I'm not so sure. Yes many would like to "disappear him", not least I suspect the fellow with the astonishing haircut and bling-encrusted uniform who is so obviously hovering impatiently in the "wings". However, Thanathorn has a high profile internationally, is well known and liked by the international press, and diplomatic circles have taken (and demonstrated) an interest in the measures being taken against him. It may not be that easy to snuff him out.

Notice how Prince Charles tactfully keeps his hands out of sight?

23 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Ah yes..visions..

 

"Is this a dagger which I see before me?"

I think I prefer Lady Macbeth: "Out, out, damned spot!"

4 hours ago, Justgrazing said:

Bit of a risqué pose by the one on the left there ..

Maybe, as a result in the cut in income this could mean, he is auditioning to moonlight in a "Village People" tribute band?

3 hours ago, madmen said:

Dont you live in cambodia or some hillbilly village somewhere? from memory Im think you do

Well, if he does, so do the majority of the Thai people. A majority who didn't vote for Prayut you will recall.

What is more, a very large number of  those who live in and around Bangkok are migrant labour from these "hillybilly" villages, effectively disenfranchised and paid poverty-level wages, so travel on the BTS/MRT is out of the question for them too.

It hardly takes the brains of an Archbishop to work out what the eventual result of perpetuating this split in Thai society (rule by the Bangkok minority, whose contempt for the bulk of the people you seem to share) will be. 

Interestingly, even the young metropolitan class do seem to realise - as is evidenced by the rise of "Future Forward - and it is clearly worrying their elders. They, (the elders) however don't know what to do. so are sticking to the old formulae...