TallGuyJohninBKK

The Thai MoPH website has a somewhat surprising breakdown of cumulative COVID deaths reported thus far in 2024 by region and province (see the right column below): Per Google Translate: https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=province PS - It may exist somewhere, but I haven't been able to find thus far a comparable breakdown by province of COVID hospitalizations.

Thailand's spring 2024 COVID surge finally moderated some this past week, with new weekly COVID hospitalizations and COVID deaths both declining, but serious condition COVID hospitalizations and COVID patients requiring ventilation to breath both continuing to increase. The latest weekly report from the Thai Ministry of Public Health saw new COVID hospitalizations finally decline 4.3% after 10 consecutive weeks of increases, falling to 1,801 cases for the week of May 19-25 versus 1,882 for the prior week. The 6 newly reported COVID deaths last week fell 62.5% from the 16 reported the prior week. The latest COVID deaths number is more in line with what have been typical weekly COVID death numbers in recent months. But the latest numbers of serious condition COVID patients (689, up 1.5% from 679 the prior week) and COVID patients requiring ventilation (305, up 8.5% from 281) both showed continuing increases. By comparison, for the first week of 2024, Thailand's key weekly COVID statistics were much lower at 664 new weekly COVID hospitalizations, 4 deaths, 144 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition and 89 requiring ventilation. The Thai government does not publicly report the total numbers of all current COVID hospitalizations, but instead only breaks out the subtotals for those in serious condition and requiring intubation, and then the new COVID hospitalizations each week. With the latest update for the period May 19 to 25, Thailand's weekly new COVID hospitalizations at 1,801, averaging 257 per day, still remain more than three times higher than the 501 weekly count recorded in mid-March when the latest COVID surge began. Thailand had a similar COVID surge in spring 2023, when weekly COVID new hospitalizations rose from a few hundred to a peak of more than 3,000 by early June 2023 before eventually subsiding. So thus far at least, the spring 2024 new hospitalizations have remained well below the spring 2023 peak. Among the 6 new COVID deaths reported for the past week, the MoPH said 5 were male and 1 female. By age, all were reported to be age 70 and above. The MoPH only recently resumed publicly disclosing the broad age ranges for Thailand's reported COVID deaths, something they had ceased many months prior with the end of COVID's declared emergency status in Thailand. With the latest weekly report, Thailand since the start of 2024 has now seen 18,620 COVID hospitalizations and 126 official COVID deaths, according to the MoPH. The weekly COVID new hospitalization counts reported by the MoPH in recent weeks have been as follows, with the spring surge beginning well before this year's mid-April Song Kran holidays, but then climbing for 10 consecutive weeks before the first decline for this past week: March 16 -- 501 March 23 -- 630 March 30 -- 728 April 6 -- 774 April 13 -- 849 April 20 -- 1,004 April 27 -- 1,672 May 4 -- 1,792 May 11 -- 1,880 May 18 - 1,882 May 25 -- 1,801 The MoPH's weekly COVID reports for Thailand are available at the following MoPH website: https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main They also have been posted each week in the following AseanNow forum thread: https://aseannow.com/topic/1311049-weekly-thai-ministry-of-public-health-covid-reports/

Thailand MoPH Weekly COVID report for May 19 - 25, 2024: --1,801 new COVID hospitalizations, averaging 257 per day, down 81 / -4.3% from the prior week --6 new COVID deaths, down 10 / -62.5% from the prior week --689 current COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition (pneumonia symptoms), up 10 / 1.5% from the prior week (dark purple) --305 current COVID patients hospitalized requiring intubation/ventilation to breathe, up 24 / 8.5% from the prior week (light purple) Cumulative figures since the start of the current year are COVID new hospitalizations (18,620) & COVID deaths (126). Of the 6 new official COVID deaths for the past week, the MoPH below is reporting that 5 were male and 1 female. By age, all 6 were reported to be age 70 and above. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main The latest MoPH report on new weekly COVID hospitalizations marked the first reported decline in new cases after 10 consecutive weeks of increases dating back to mid-March. Even so, the current levels of new weekly COVID hospitalizations remain more than three times higher than at the start of the recent surge. The weekly new COVID hospitalizations during that period have been: March 16 -- 501 March 23 -- 630 March 30 -- 728 April 6 -- 774 April 13 -- 849 April 20 -- 1,004 April 27 -- 1,672 May 4 -- 1,792 May 11 -- 1,880 May 18 - 1,882 May 25 -- 1,801 By comparison, Thailand's key weekly COVID indicators to start 2024 were 664 new COVID hospitalizations and 4 COVID deaths for the first week of the year. Last year, Thailand had a similar spring COVID surge that saw new weekly COVID hospitalizations peak at 3,085 in early June.

The Thai MoPH admitted early in the pandemic that a portion of their reported COVID deaths in that early period were died "with" COVID types... They then (several years ago) changed / tightened their definition of what they would count as a COVID death to be a pretty narrow one. From March 2022: "Kiattiphum said the death report would be rewritten to separate patients with lung inflammation from those who did not have lung inflammation, and the reports would also state the main cause of death.... Kiattiphum unveiled the plan to review the report on Covid-19 fatalities after Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul told reporters earlier in the day that he had consulted with senior officials of the ministry about daily reports on Covid-19 fatalities. ... Anutin said the daily reports seemed to show that Covid-19 fatalities had increased but, he said, people, who died due to other causes or diseases should be separated from the Covid-19 fatality reports. Anutin said the meeting discussed that when patients died while they were on a ventilator and died of lung inflammation caused by Covid-19 virus, they could be classified as Covid-19 deaths. https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40013255 So the notion that officially reported COVID deaths reported by MoPH these days (two years later) aren't really COVID deaths isn't supported by any facts.

And that was the accurate figure for preventing symptomatic COVID illness that was found from the COVID vaccine clinical trials, and from some subsequent studies once the vaccines were first deployed. "In December 2020, Pfizer-BioNTech’s Phase 3 clinical data for its original vaccine showed 95% efficacy for preventing symptomatic COVID." ... Moderna uses the same mRNA technology as Pfizer-BioNTech and had a similarly high efficacy at preventing symptomatic disease when the companies applied for authorization." https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison "In a multistate network of U.S. hospitals during January–March 2021, receipt of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines was 94% effective against COVID-19 hospitalization among fully vaccinated adults and 64% effective among partially vaccinated adults aged ≥65 years." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7018e1.htm

You made a similar claim here weeks ago, and nothing happened on that since then. Public schools in Thailand reopened for the new academic year as scheduled earlier this month. May 8: https://aseannow.com/topic/1326823-expect-increase-in-covid-19-cases-as-school-term-approaches/?do=findComment&comment=18900393 That didn't happen: May 22: https://aseannow.com/topic/1327862-new-school-year-same-old-story-thailand’s-education-system-‘stuck-in-the-past’/

The original COVID vaccines were never clinical trialed or approved on the basis of being able to limit/reduce transmission. That was never part of the original expectation or basis for approval, although it did in fact occur in the early going of the pandemic with the early versions of the COVID virus. The vaccines were trialed and approved on the basis of being able to limit/reduce symptomatic COVID illness, which in fact they did, and continue to do...although these days, after multiple variants, the effectiveness is more toward limiting/preventing hospitalization and death from COVID, and that certainly ought to be people's highest priority and expectation. The false claim of the COVID vaccines being approved or originally promised to prevent transmission is a common anti-vaxer falsehood. Fact Check: Preventing transmission never required for COVID vaccines’ initial approval; Pfizer vax did reduce transmission of early variants By Reuters Fact Check February 13, 2024 "To get emergency approval, companies needed to show that the vaccines were safe and prevented vaccinated people from getting ill. They did not have to show that the vaccine would also prevent people from spreading the virus to others. Once the vaccines were on the market, independent researchers in multiple countries studied people who received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and did show that vaccination reduced transmission of variants circulating at the time." ,,, At the time governments were negotiating advance purchases of vaccine in 2020, the European Medicines Agency had already laid out requirements for an application for conditional marketing authorization of a COVID-19 vaccine, clinical trials were underway, and tests to show the vaccine prevented onward transmission were not required of any vaccine maker. ... The U.S. Food and Drug Administration laid out similar expectations for vaccine trials in June of 2020, and did not require data regarding the effect on virus transmission." https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/preventing-transmission-never-required-covid-vaccines-initial-approval-pfizer-2024-02-12/

Still no accord: WHO Member States Fail to Reach Agreement on Pandemic Accord; Way Forward in Hands of World Health Assembly 24/05/2024 A last ditch effort of WHO member states to finish negotiations on a pandemic accord has failed to yield agreement ahead of next week’s World Health Assembly (WHA) – with key articles in the draft text still unresolved including the thorny formula for global sharing of vaccines and medicines during international health emergencies. As of Friday evening, member states of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Board, assembled in Geneva, had stopped negotiating over the draft text, and were instead talking about the way forward. And on that, as well, there was no accord, leaving a future pathway in the hands of the WHA. According to sources who spoke to Health Policy Watch, member states were debating over recommendations to try to conclude the accord in parallel talks during next week’s WHA; to extend the negotiations by another six months; or even by a year. The most radical proposal was for a ‘suspension’ of the global health assembly in mid-week, so that delegates could focus solely on the treaty negotiations. But that seemed highly unlikely in light of the packed WHA agenda, which also includes highly political items related to the war in Ukraine and in Gaza. (more) https://healthpolicy-watch.news/breaking-pandemic-accord-negotiations-stall-again-with-way-forward-in-hands-of-world-health-assembly/

And the broader global perspective: Just How Do Deaths Due to COVID-19 Stack Up? Despite a likely undercount in many places, COVID is among the leading causes of death in most countries ... "Despite improved treatment and the growing, albeit inequitable, availability of vaccines and therapeutics for COVID-19, 2021 was its deadliest year. About 3.9 million COVID-19 deaths occurred in 2021, representing about half of all COVID-19 deaths from 2020-2022. This is probably related to the emergence of the delta variant, which was much more likely to lead to fatal outcomes compared to the ancestral variant, and the omicron variant, which despite being less severe than the ancestral variant is more transmissible. [emphasis added] Despite the relaxing of mitigation measures and the expiration of some public health emergency orders, 2022 had the fewest annual deaths from COVID, about 1.3 million, likely due to widespread population immunity from vaccines, infection, or both." https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-how-do-deaths-due-covid-19-stack

You seem surprised that COVID killed a lot of people, millions of people, especially during (1) early 2021 before vaccines were widely available and then later in 2021 and into 2022 with the arrival of (2) the more deadly Delta and (3) far more transmissible Omicron variants. WORLD: Source: UNITED STATES: Source: The U.S. Census Bureau below did a good job of explaining what happened when and why because of seasonality and the new COVID variants that emerged (though the U.S. timeline diverges somewhat from the world timeline): Pandemic Disrupted Historical Mortality Patterns, Caused Largest Jump in Deaths in 100 Years ... "Throughout 2020, as mandates changed and more became known about the virus, we saw spikes and dips in deaths that reached a peak by November and December during the holiday and winter months, when people were more likely to gather indoors. Deaths began to drop In January 2021. By April that year, the United States saw a decline in deaths corresponding to increases in vaccinations. And that June, death levels returned to near June 2019 levels. This decline was short-lived, though, as the Delta variant caused another spike in deaths in July and August. Deaths dropped slightly in the fall, but then the Omicron variant emerged just as holiday travel picked up in December 2021." https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/03/united-states-deaths-spiked-as-covid-19-continued.html All well-documented and explained many times before.

Unclear how US will respond It is unclear how the US, Israel’s closest ally, will respond to the ICJ’s order. The Biden administration has spoken out strongly against the genocide case against Israel, but it has repeatedly warned Israel that Washington will not support a major ground offensive in Rafah unless it sees a credible plan to ensure the safety of civilians. This month, the US halted arms shipments to Israel for the first time out of fear that they could be used in Rafah to harm civilians. In an interview with CNN, US President Joe Biden acknowledged that American bombs had been used to kill civilians in Gaza, in a stark recognition of the US’ role in the war. The US is Israel’s biggest weapons supplier. The move by the ICJ is likely to add to mounting pressure on Israel to scale down its war in Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that his country will defend itself even if “forced to stand alone.” https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/middleeast/israel-icj-gaza-rafah-south-africa-ruling-intl/index.html

ICJ ruling underscores Israel’s growing isolation, experts say ... The international pressure facing Israel today is “unprecedented,” Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN. “Because this war is unprecedented, and the way Israel conducts the war is unprecedented.” While there has always been criticism of some of Israel’s actions, such as regarding the expansion of settlements, “this is on a different scale, a different universe altogether,” he said. “The current Israeli government does its best to make Israel a pariah state,” said Mekelberg." https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-05-24-24/index.html

South Africa welcomes "groundbreaking" ICJ ruling ordering Israel to halt military offensive in Rafah The South African government expressed support for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling Friday that orders Israel to “immediately halt” its military offensive in Rafah. “This order is groundbreaking as it is the first time that explicit mention is made for Israel to halt its military action in any area of Gaza, this time specifically in Rafah,” Zane Dangor, director-general of South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said in a video statement. ... Johannesburg will approach the United Nations Security Council with this order for the latter to implement it, including allowing an independent investigation of claims of genocide in Gaza, according to Dangor." https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-05-24-24/index.html

Part 1: "Earlier, Israel signaled it, too, would brush off an ICJ order to stop its operations. “No power on earth will stop Israel from protecting its citizens and going after Hamas in Gaza,” Avi Hyman, the government spokesperson, said in a press briefing Thursday." https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-palestinians-court-ceasefire-01d093d21a1eadaa31af5708cf1cbf38 Part 2, per the Washington Post: "The court’s rulings are legally binding, but enforcement can be tricky, and rulings can be ignored. Russia, for example, rejected a 2022 order to cease its war against Ukraine. The only way to enforce an ICJ order is through a vote of the U.N. Security Council. Any of the council’s five permanent members, including the United States, could veto any such measure. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has previously called the genocide element of South Africa’s case “meritless.” https://archive.ph/bw3ku#selection-1113.0-1143.300

Both sides in this have an interest in playing the propaganda game to further their respective ends. And sometimes the line between reality and fiction gets blurred in the reporting of things, as illustrated in the AP report below from yesterday: How 2 debunked accounts of sexual violence on Oct. 7 fueled a global dispute over Israel-Hamas war ... Israel points to sexual violence on Oct. 7 to highlight what it says is Hamas’ savagery and to justify its wartime goal of neutralizing any repeated threat coming from Gaza. It has accused the international community of ignoring or playing down evidence of sexual violence claims, alleging anti-Israel bias. It says any untrue stories were an anomaly in the face of the many documented atrocities. In turn, some of Israel’s critics have seized on the ZAKA accounts, along with others shown to be untrue, to allege that the Israeli government has distorted the facts to prosecute a war — one in which more than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed, many of them women and children, according to Gaza health officials. A U.N. fact-finding team found “reasonable grounds” to believe that some of those who stormed southern Israel on Oct. 7 had committed sexual violence, including rape and gang rape. But the U.N. investigators also said that in the absence of forensic evidence and survivor testimony, it would be impossible to determine the scope of such violence. Hamas has denied its forces committed sexual violence. https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-sexual-violence-zaka-ca7905bf9520b1e646f86d72cdf03244

Another version of the above report with a bit more detail: Charter court accepts petition seeking removal of PM Srettha’s status The Constitutional Court voted 6:3 today to accept for consideration a petition, by a group of 40 senators, challenging the legitimacy of the appointment of Phichit Chuenban as PM’s Office minister, but voted 5:4 to reject the senators’ call to suspend Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin pending the court’s final decision. The prime minister was given 15 days to submit his written rebuttal to the court. The court also voted not to accept the senators’ petition seeking a ruling on the legitimacy of Phichit’s appointment, on the grounds that he resigned from the cabinet on Tuesday. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/charter-court-accepts-petition-seeking-removal-of-pm-sretthas-status/

Sounds like the COVID vaccines program for the un- and under-insured was doing pretty substantial business... until Congress rescinded the federal funding that was being used to run the program for 25 to 30 million eligible Americans:

Government urges citizens to wear masks Singapore is experiencing a new wave of COVID-19, with authorities recording over 25,900 cases from May 5 to 11. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung advised the public to wear masks again on Saturday. ... Significant surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations The Ministry of Health (MOH) reported that the number of COVID-19 cases increased significantly, from 13,700 the previous week to 25,900 in the week of May 5 to 11. Average daily hospitalisations rose to about 250 from 181 the previous week, while intensive care unit (ICU) cases remained low, increasing slightly from two to three daily. To manage hospital capacity, public hospitals have been directed to reduce non-urgent elective surgeries and transfer suitable patients to transitional care facilities or home care through the Mobile Inpatient Care@Home program, which allows clinically suitable patients to be treated at home. (more) https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/other/singapore-braces-for-covid-19-surge-with-over-25-900-cases-recorded-in-a-week-govt-urges-citizens-to-wear-masks/ar-BB1mDfY4

A federal program providing free COVID-19 vaccines to uninsured and underinsured adults is shutting down this summer, before the fall rollout of updated vaccines to fight against the latest variants. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said its Bridge Access Program will end in August because of a lack of funding. The program has provided more than 1.4 million free COVID-19 vaccines since it launched in September 2023 at a cost of more than $1 billion. The Bridge Access Program was meant to be temporary and was originally scheduled to end in December 2024. (more) https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4670459-cdc-ending-free-covid-vaccines-uninsured/

Fact Check: No evidence to link UK excess deaths to COVID-19 vaccines February 7, 2024 "For example, ONS data show all-cause deaths in England were higher among the unvaccinated than those who had received at least one dose, for every month in its April 2021 to May 2023 dataset. “There is no evidence COVID-19 vaccinations are linked to these estimated excess deaths,” a spokeswoman for the ONS said via email. Experts point to the long-term effects of surviving COVID infection, NHS delays and a lack of preventive care as explanations for the higher-than-average mortalities. https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/no-evidence-link-uk-excess-deaths-covid-19-vaccines-2024-02-06/ Current evidence shows COVID-19 vaccination doesn’t increase risk of sudden cardiac death "In April 2024, the CDC published a study evaluating immediate or contributing causes of death via death certificates of young adults aged 16 to 30 in Oregon[1]. The aim of the study was to determine risk of SCD among adolescents and young adults after COVID-19 vaccination. ... To do this, they examined deaths that weren’t caused by COVID-19 and could potentially be cardiac-related. They further narrowed down the deaths of interest by looking at only deaths that had occurred within 100 days of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. The researchers chose this time period given evidence that adverse events associated with vaccination tend to occur within 42 days of vaccination. From these remaining death certificates, just three deaths occurred within 100 days of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. The researchers determined that death in all three cases was due to natural causes. https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/current-evidence-shows-covid19-vaccination-doesnt-increase-risk-sudden-cardiac-death/

Study: COVID Still Deadlier Than the Flu -- But the Gap Is Narrowing https://aseannow.com/topic/1327600-study-covid-still-deadlier-than-the-flu-but-the-gap-is-narrowing/

Some useful context provided in Dr. Thira's COVID report above: --COVID hospitalized cases requiring ventilator assistance reached the highest levels in 17 months. --New weekly COVID hospitalizations have now increased for 10 consecutive weeks. --The number of COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition with pneumonia type symptoms has increased for seven consecutive weeks.

It's an English language recap of the doctor's Thai language Facebook post. I'm guessing what he meant was that people should wear face masks when outside (away from home) for things like shopping, traveling on public transportation, etc etc. -- which is pretty common guidance here. As for how he arrived at his estimate of daily cases, as opposed to the government's publicly reported statistic of weekly new COVID hospitalizations, the article above explains: "Dr Thira based his projections on data released by the Public Health Ministry for the previous week (May 12 to 18)" -- which was the latest MoPH weekly update from Monday of Thailand having 1,882 new COVID hospitalizations last week. Clearly, it takes larger numbers of just COVID infections in order to produce smaller resulting numbers of COVID hospitalizations.

As the number of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospitals with lung infections continues to climb, an expert in preventive medicine, a doctor from Chulalongkorn University, issued a stark warning, predicting that daily infections in Thailand could surpass 18,000 individuals. Associate Professor Doctor Thira Woratanarat, a faculty member at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Medicine, expressed his concerns in a recent Facebook post, urging schools to remain vigilant in the face of this escalating threat. Dr Thira based his projections on data released by the Public Health Ministry for the previous week (May 12 to 18), estimating that the virus may currently be infecting between 13,443 and 18,671 individuals daily. Although he did not delve into the specifics of his methodology, he emphasised the gravity of the situation given the concerning statistics provided. (more) https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/doctor-warns-schools-to-anticipate-a-surge-in-covid-infections

Righttttt..... literally! Hardly a surprise to find all GB's loyal fans posting here... But pretty clear who's telling porkies more often. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/gb-news-uk-bias/ vs BBC: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bbc/