TallGuyJohninBKK

Today's MoPH two-week COVID trends chart: https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/541592117459117/?type=3 In the red text above, MoPH is saying that 107 of today's newly reported 115 COVID deaths (93%) involved people who had NOT received their third-dose COVID vaccine booster shot.

It's got nothing to do with science changing.... What's been driving the Thai government's all-over-the-ballpark, back and forth policy moves in recent months isn't anything to do with changing science or public health policy, but rather, politics and economics... It's the inherent conflict between their political desire to begin resurrecting Thailand's tourism industry by beginning to/trying to lift restrictions in response to domestic demands ... versus the inconvenient truths that COVID deaths and serious hospitalizations are continuing to rise in the country, including today to a new year-high number of new COVID deaths. And that the daily reported official COVID case counts are only a portion of those that are actually occurring, by varying estimates as much as a four-fold undercount of reality.

That's one of the issues I have with the way MoPH reports their fatality data and how it can be misinterpreted... Yes, it's true that older people (including those over 60) are more at risk of serious health consequences from COVID... along with people of all ages who have various chronic medical conditions. But some people then take those kinds of references to suggest that the over 60 crowd were/are all sick and almost on death's door already, which is certainly not the case. They may be over 60, but that doesn't mean they're all in poor health or wouldn't -- in the absence of COVID -- go on to live productive lives for many many more years.

And a very unusual / strange development -- FOURTEEN COVID deaths reported for the day in the NE province of Roi Et (by far the most of any single province for the day).... compared to only five in the vastly larger and more populous province of Bangkok. Normally, for some time now, Bangkok has regularly seen double-digit daily COVID deaths and almost always has more than any other single province on any given day, as would be expected given its relative size/population. Likewise, I think it's pretty rare, at least thus far in this year's version of the pandemic, to have any other province besides Bangkok reporting double digit COVID deaths.. But we had that today in Roi Et of all places for some reason. Curiously, according to the MoPH daily fatality reports, Roi Et didn't have any COVID deaths yesterday, and only one the day before that.... Hmmmm......

Despite the arrival of the Thai New Year’s holidays, Thailand on Thursday reported a year-high record total of 115 new COVID deaths, the fifth consecutive day of deaths exceeding 100, along with a slightly increased number of 1,993 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition. The 115 new COVID deaths reported on the second day of the Thai Songkran holiday period surpassed the country’s prior 2022 high of 108 COVID deaths set last Sunday. The 1,993 COVID cases hospitalized in serious condition likewise was an increase from the 1,971 reported yesterday, but below the year high figure of 2,065 from last Monday. Among the seriously ill hospitalized COVID patients, the government said 846 are requiring intubation to breathe, up from the 834 reported yesterday, but below the year high of 885 from last Tuesday. At the same time, the Ministry of Public Health also reported 24,134 official new COVID cases for the past day, also an increase from the 23,015 reported yesterday. Thailand’s counts of official COVID cases, widely considered an unreliable undercount, have been bouncing above and below 25,000 for the past week. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. This year with the arrival of the Omicron wave, serious case hospitalizations and intubations have been rising steadily since the start of the year, with deaths following a similar but somewhat more erratic upward trend -- patterns that thus far show no signs as yet of having peaked. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/541504170801245 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

And lastly, new estimate says almost 44% of the world's population had had at least one COVID infection up through mid-November 2021 ... but no sign of any so-called "herd immunity" effect even in places with much higher localized rates. Estimate: Less than half the world has had COVID-19 "From March 2020 to the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021, about 3.8 billion COVID-19 infections and reinfections occurred, with nearly 44% of the world's population infected at least once but with wide regional variations, estimates a statistical analysis of 190 countries and territories published late last week in The Lancet. ... Up to Nov 14, 2021, an estimated 3.8 billion total COVID-19 infections and reinfections occurred, with about 3.4 billion people (43.9% of the world's population) infected at least once. ... Even at 80% total immunity [in some countries], there was no indication of an abrupt decline of infections, which the researchers said suggests no clear indication of herd immunity in the data." (more) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/estimate-less-half-world-has-had-covid-19 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00484-6/fulltext For Thailand, through mid November 2021, their modeling suggests the country had: --28,300 deaths --8.1 million COVID cases --with only about 11% of the population having been infected by that point. As of that mid-November 2021 date, Thailand's official tallies were only just over 2 million cumulative COVID cases (meaning a four-fold undercount of likely cases) and 20,000+ COVID deaths (29% undercount compared to the estimate for that time). As of now in April 2022, five months later and including all of the 2022 Omicron wave, Thailand's "official" numbers say only 3.9 million total infections since the start of the pandemic, and 26,395 official COVID deaths -- both still lower than the actual estimates from mid-November 2021. Source weblink

And, someone posted here the other day using Africa as a supposed winning COVID example, claiming Africa had managed to avoid high numbers of COVID cases without a lot of lockdown and other restrictions... Now researchers are saying, not so fast with that kind of conclusion, with new estimates that actual COVID cases in Africa may be as much as 98 times higher than the officially reported figures.... Again, sounding a bit similar to Thailand: "Stark gaps in testing and surveillance in Africa contribute to a blind spot regarding how many people were exposed to SARS-CoV-2, but a recent meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies revealed that nearly two-thirds were infected and that the true number of cases might be 98 times higher than official numbers. ... They found that SARS-CoV-2 exposure surged from 3% in June 2020 to 65% in September 2021, fueled by the spread of the Beta and Delta variants. The group estimated there were likely 800 million cases as of last September, compared with the 8.2 million that were officially reported at that time, or 97.6% higher." https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/study-about-two-thirds-africans-exposed-covid-19 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.14.22270934v1

It's the older and unvaccinated folks who are mostly dying from COVID in Hong Kong... Study sheds light on death spike in Hong Kong COVID-19 surge "The recent Omicron variant surge in Hong Kong came with a mortality rate among the world's highest yet in the pandemic, a troubling development in a region known for its strong pandemic measures, and today researchers from the United States, Hong Kong, and China who dug into the data suggest that vaccination lapses in older people played a major role. ... Among the deaths, 96% occurred in people ages 60 and older, and of those 70% were unvaccinated. "The high overall mortality rate during the ongoing 2022 Hong Kong Omicron COVID-19 outbreak is being driven by deaths among unvaccinated persons aged ≥60 years," the team wrote." https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/study-sheds-light-death-spike-hong-kong-covid-19-surge https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7115e1.htm Sounds suspiciously familiar to the elderly / unvaccinated COVID deaths situation in Thailand...albeit with lesser numbers here.

Some Asia region COVID updates: Taiwan "Taiwan's daily cases continue to rise steadily, with 630 new cases reported today [April 11], reaching their highest level of the pandemic. Officials said they have signed an agreement with Pfizer to buy 700,000 courses of Paxlovid, the company's oral COVID-19 treatment." China "As Shanghai's lockdown enters its third week and amid public outcry about lapses in food supply and services, including medical treatment, officials today announced a plan to ease measures in some of the city's districts where no cases have been reported in the past 2 weeks. ... Elsewhere in China, officials in Guangzhou—a large port city and the capital of Guangdong province—are bracing for a surge, according to the Associated Press. Tightened measures include switching schools to online learning and urging people not to leave the city, which has a population of more than 15 million." (more) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/shanghai-tweaks-lockdown-covid-19-surge-presses

https://www.facebook.com/OICDDC/posts/347739860720840

On the first day of the Songkran New Year holiday, Thailand on Wednesday reported 106 new COVID deaths, the fourth consecutive day over 100 and the second highest daily deaths tally of the year, along with a slightly lower 1,971 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition. Wednesday’s new deaths toll followed 101 yesterday, 105 on Monday and 108 on Sunday, which remains the highest COVID deaths day of 2022. The 1,971 COVID cases hospitalized in serious condition marked a decline from the 2,056 reported yesterday and the year high 2,065 reported Monday. Among the COVID cases hospitalized in serious condition, the Ministry of Public Health said the share in the worst condition requiring intubation to breathe fell to 834 from the record year-high 885 reported yesterday, although that decline was driven in part by the high number of new deaths. The 23,015 official new COVID cases reported Wednesday marked a typical midweek increase from the 19,982 reported yesterday, but continued a trend of Thailand’s dubious and widely underreported official COVID case counts bouncing above and below the 25,000 per day mark. Some officials have estimated the actual number of new cases could be in the 100,000 per day range. Overall, Thailand on Wednesday reported a total of 232,682 active official COVID cases, down from the 237,399 reported yesterday, and well off the year-high of 259,126 reported on April 3. Thailand only counts COVID cases as official when the result is confirmed by an RT-PCR test, which the country has moved away from using in favor of unofficial ATK test results. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/540854390866223 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

26 official road deaths reported on Monday in Thailand on the first of the Songkran holiday's so-called ‘Seven Dangerous Days’. That compares to the 105 new COVID deaths reported Monday, thus the daily COVID death toll was four times higher for the day. https://www.thaienquirer.com/39382/songkrans-seven-dangerous-days-begins-with-spike-in-road-deaths

UK again leads today's list of countries with the most positive COVID cases arriving to Thailand via international travel: https://www.facebook.com/OICDDC/posts/347117287449764

฿211 million approved for study of Thailand’s first plant-based COVID vaccine The cabinet approved a 211 million baht budget today (Tuesday) for a study of the safety and efficacy of a plant-based candidate sub-unit vaccine in boosting the body’s immune response to COVID-19, the first such vaccine in Thailand being developed by Thai startup Baiya Phytopharm. The National Vaccine Institute and Baiya Phytopharm have been assigned by the cabinet to prepare a contingency plan, in case the company is unable to conduct more clinical trials of the plant-based candidate vaccine in July as planned, said Deputy Government Spokesperson Traisuree Traisoranakul. ... Baiya is not, however, the only company working on plant-based vaccines, using tobacco leaves as the main ingredient. Canada is set to be the first country to give citizens the option of a vegetarian coronavirus shot. (more) https://www.thaipbsworld.com/211-million-approved-for-study-of-thailands-first-plant-based-covid-vaccine/

MoPH two-week COVID trends chart: From left to right in the graphic below: past 14-day running average of daily new cases, daily count of total serious condition COVID hospitalizations, the subset of those requiring intubation, and daily new COVID deaths. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/540369470914715/?type=3 In the red text at the bottom right of the graphic, MoPH is saying 95 of today's 101 newly reported COVID deaths (94%) were people who had NOT received their third dose COVID booster vaccine shot. Among the newly reported deaths today, MoPH also listed one of them as being English nationality, with no further details. Also a 3-month-old infant, although most of the deaths as usual are among those age 60 and older or younger people with various chronic medical conditions that make them more vulnerable to the virus.

EN Translation: The Ministry of Public Health received 50,000 courses of "Paxlovid" medicine from Pfizer to support the Covid after Songkran period. ... Currently, Thailand has used antiviral drugs to treat COVID-19 patients, namely favipiravir. Remdesivir Molnupiravir ... Paxlovid is an antiviral tablet. It works by inhibiting the enzyme protease, preventing the COVID virus from making the proteins it needs to multiply. Source: Ministry of Public Health https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/540343674250628

Well, they do report an official prisons new COVID cases number every day, today being 27. But as has been well reported here before, the only cases that become official ones are those that the government and medical staffs do confirming RT-PCR tests on, and I'd imagine that's only occurring when cases get to the point of requiring hospitalization. Under 50,000 new vaccinations as of yesterday, but that's kinda to be expected during the Songkran period... Still, that compares with the prior daily vaccinations peak that was above 600,000 at one point. Question remains, how much of the slow progress is related to lack of interest/demand vs how much is related to unavailability of vaccines out in the outlying provinces. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/540369684248027/?type=3 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/540369640914698/?type=3 COVID Vaccine Boosted: 35.6% of the general population, and 38.8% of the senior citizen population age 60 and above.

Heading into the Songkran New Year’s holiday, Thailand on Tuesday reported 101 new COVID deaths, the third consecutive day over 100, and a slightly reduced count of 2,056 seriously ill COVID cases in hospital, along with 19,982 official new cases. The 101 new deaths became Thailand’s third highest daily total of the year, following the year-high 108 reported on Sunday and the second highest 105 tally reported yesterday. That brought Thailand’s official COVID death toll thus far in 2022 to 4,591. Meanwhile, the 2,056 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition became Thailand’s second highest daily total of the year, surpassed only by yesterday’s year-high number of 2,065. The country's daily number of seriously ill COVID patients has been steadily rising since the start of the year. Among the serious COVID hospitalizations, the share in the worst condition requiring intubation in order to breathe rose again to a new year-high record of 885, up from 856 yesterday, the fifth such new record-high day in a row. In all, the government reported a total of 237,399 active COVID cases, down significantly from yesterday’s 245,575 total, and well below the year-high tally of 259,126 set on April 3. Tuesday's 19,982 count of official new COVID cases was the country's lowest daily total in more than a week. But Thailand's daily tallies of "official" cases are widely considered a significant undercount and also highly variable based on days of the week and other factors, such as the upcoming government holidays period. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/540246760926986 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

Monday was the third consecutive "red" / "unhealthy for all" air quality day in Bangkok. Meaning the average AQI reading for those days (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) hit 151 or above, the low threshold for air quality becoming unhealthy for all. https://aqicn.org/city/bangkok

Could be related.... The above graphic claimed that such symptoms typically have been resolving within a couple months post infection... And if the symptoms continue on longer than that, to consult a doctor.

MoPH today published a graphic and accompanying post on their survey of Thai COVID patients who have shown symptoms of so-called Long COVID -- symptoms that linger on months after the infection has resolved. Their findings of the six most common symptoms among those patients: 1 Nervous system, found 27.33%, including acute local weakness, headache, dizziness, forgetfulness, muscle atrophy 2 Psychological systems found 32.1%, namely insomnia, anxiety, depression. 3 Cardiovascular system, found 22.86%, including chest pain, palpitations 4 Respiratory system, found at 44.38%, including shortness of breath, chronic cough 5 skin systems, found 22.8%, including hair loss, allergic rash 6 general systems, found 23.41%, including fatigue, muscle aches, joint pain https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/539730957645233

Today's version of the MoPH two-week trends chart for 14-day running average new daily cases, serious COVID hospitalization, COVID intubations, and new daily COVID deaths. In the red text at the bottom right corner of the graph, MoPH says that 99 of today's 105 newly reported deaths (94%) had NOT received a third dose COVID booster vaccination. Also, MoPH's daily deaths report today indicated than an Australian was among the 105 new deaths.

Thailand on Monday reported 105 new COVID deaths, the country’s second consecutive day exceeding 100, along with a new year-high figure of 2,065 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition, the first time that tally has surpassed 2,000 this year. Monday’s new COVID deaths toll, although slightly down from the year-high record of 108 set on Sunday, still became Thailand’s second highest COVID deaths tally of the year. And that, combined with yet another in a series of year-high serious hospitalizations reports, pointed to continued worsening in the country’s COVID situation. The double dose of bad news involving new COVID deaths and serious hospitalizations came despite the country’s dubious daily tally of official new COVID cases showing a decline to 22,387, the lowest figure of the past six days, but one also likely related to a lack of confirming testing and case reporting. Because a large share of the overall cases likely have no or minor symptoms with the Omicron variant, those people typically would not under government policy be given a confirming RT-PCR test that's required to become an "official" case in Thailand, and many may not even seek medical testing or care. Even so, rising numbers of Thais, often older people among the nearly two-thirds of the population that has not received a COVID vaccine booster dose, are continuing to get seriously ill from COVID. The 2,065 serious condition patients reported Monday was an increase of 72 over the 1,993 reported Sunday. And that tally has more than doubled in the past six weeks. In tandem, the government also reported yet another year-high figure of 856 hospitalized COVID patients requiring intubation to breathe, an increase of eight over Sunday's prior record 848 tally. That count has tripled since the start of March. Government officials have been warning that Thailand's official COVID case counts could reach 50,000 per day in the coming weeks, and some officials have predicted the actual real figures could be closer to 100,000 new cases per day. But with the country heading into this week's annual Songkran Thai new year holiday and many government officials and citizens taking off work, the officially reported daily case numbers thus far have shown no sign of climbing -- unlike deaths and serious hospitalizations. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/539608680990794 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

Whenever I've gotten "substitute" products from my past online Tesco orders, it was usually because they had run out of stock for the sale items their system showed as being available. So then they'd typically substitute in a somewhat similar item at regular / higher prices. Funny how it always seemed to go like that.

Dunno what's happened this very late in the normal Thailand smog season, but things have suddenly gone to hell, just in time for Songkran: http://aqicn.org/city/thailand/bangkok/chulalongkorn-hospital/ Normally by this time of year, the annual smog season is either done or almost done.... Based on the Chula monitoring station readings below, today is the first fully red/unhealthy air day of 2022 for that Bangkok area, which is extremely unusual. Last year there were 7 fully red days during the same period. 2022: This below is what 2021 looked like for the same period, with much worse air during the normal smog season, which usually starts November-December and runs into March-April, depending on the year. 2021: