lovelomsak

1 hour ago, amvet said:

I imagine you haven't been here 20 years or more as the same was said 20 years ago but things are fine.  More people are educated every year more tourists every year and export growth every year.  In 97 the country was going to fail.  Did it?  Or did it rebound?  How is the baht doing?  The sky is not falling as the old timers will attest.  

I feel the same as you about the sky is falling people. I was  here is 97. Guys in Pattaya with condos that cost 150,000 were concerned  they had invested in a ghost town. Where are condos now? Doom and gloom is often used by guys with either no money to invest  or are afraid of losing what money they do have. Mostly bar stool talk just something to say to give an opinion.

  Thailand is stil far cheaper than most of Europe or America so has a long ways to go to be expensive. And is Thailand not full of pensioners from Europe who could only afford a small box apartment back in their country,so what do guys from these nations have to say about good money management.

  Rural Thais are still gatherers. They live off the land. They only work outside the home for things like cars and phones.All their cash can go on toys so to speak because they do not have a grocery bill and use little utilities.If they make 10,000 a month 9,000 can go on a car.And when little brother goes to work,together they can build a house for mom and dad. on shared salaries.

  Different world here guys.

30 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

It is clear that the military regime has brought much needed political and social stability to the country.

I don't follow that closely but to me it doesn't seem that they interfere much with the economy, which is left in the hands of the oligarchs, almost as in any other non-socialist country.

The middle class, I would think, is essentially made of the minority holding secure jobs in the private sector, and the countless mid-level public workers that fill up the countless administrations.

These people, who represent a small part of the total population are leaving the American dream, the way the Americans themselves live it, blissfully unaware that it is just...a dream!

Along with many economics analysts, I am convinced that, most probably during the next decade, there is going to be a major reset and the hangover is going to be both painful and lasting...I mean decades, if not centuries...

I have to agree.  But would like to add there is not a thing we can do to stop  it. To concern ourselves about it is what drives some of us to live in small remote villages here in Thailand.. 

39 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

When you consider a 120,000 baht per rai land price and weigh that against the profit which can be earned in most cases per rai, these current land prices seem highly inflated, and I suspect this is being driven by speculation more than potential return on investment value.

Could you please help me find this 120,000 baht a rai land. Where i am it 250,000 up. I would take the wife to look at buying some,for her. Just a few rai I am thrifty

43 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That is because, in his time, a boom like the one we are experiencing today, was not possible since all the shackles hadn't been removed.

There were two major fateful decisions:

- the creation of the US central bank in 1913, in practice the creation of the money printing machine

- the severed link between the dollar and gold, in 1971, thanks to Nixon...something much worse for the fate of humanity than the ridicule Watergate.

 

The advent of central banking was promptly followed by...the Great Depression!

Then came WWII and, in the end, the Bretton Woods accord that gave us those famous three glorious decades.

Under Bretton Woods, the dollar was linked to gold, hence limiting the possibility of the central banks to issue money and credit at will.

But after 1971, the world slowly entered in a cycle of booms and busts, each one more destructive than the previous one, until 2008...for now.

Yet, despite these ominous warnings, the rulers, that is the banksters and their affiliated oligarchs, are not willing to change anything.

As a matter of fact, like a gambler who keeps on losing, they double down (on credit creation) after each loss...which is exactly what they have done after 2008, hence the boom we are living in.

But the thing is that a boom is nothing to be happy about, this is not how the economy is supposed to work, 10 steps forward, then brutally 12 steps backwards, then forward again...

A strong economy should be humming...as they say...not roaring...

So we are now in the final stage (after the 2000 and 2008 near collapses) of this gigantic boom brought about by an even more gigantic debt buildup.

And since we will not abandon this policy, the first option offered by Mises, we will face the collapse of the currency (system).

The Chinese and the Russians, as well as a few others, are well aware of that, piling up gold in order to be ready for the next chapter, while the insouciant Westerners are selling theirs to the East.

Because, when faith in the actual currency system will collapse, a return to real money backed by real value like gold may well be the solution..

I have to say I like what you say and am a believer same as you . The economies of the world  will get a great correction in the futrue and the future appears to be coming quicker since  banks have stopped using cash and use only digital money

 BUT the thread is about Thailand and the ruling junta. Is life better since they took power for the average Thai. If consumerism is the yardstick for a better life then Thais are definitely living better now than ever before. And I think consumerism is what middle class is all about. They feed off each other buying and selling to each other.

    When the economies do collapse will it make any difference if they are in debt for a honda wave or a Mercedes? 

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Thanks for giving me the opportunity to bring one of my favorite quotes...

I liked this quote.

  That was 1949. 69 years for credit to bring the end he mentions, How many currencies can we find that went the way he said the currencies  would go from credit expansion? You will need to help me with this I do not know any.

  Thailand just started how long before his quote is a concern? Our life time or 2 life times or more?

27 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Don't I know that...after 18 years spent living in Isaan, with a few stints in Bangkok and Pattaya.

So, let's focus on the microlevel, specifically "my" village.

There, in the middle of nowhere, are roughly 50 houses harboring 200 permanent residents.

There are villages like this one scattered all around, every 2 or 3 km, and I know quite a few of them.

Let's see how things have evolved.

For one, most if not all dirt roads, including those inside the villages, have been replaced.

Inside the villages, the local authorities generally built almost undestructible steel reinforced concrete roads...fine!

Between villages, it's the usual tar roads that don't last more than two rain seasons.

Reaching the amphoe administrative center, 10 km away from my village, requires special skills in slaloming through potholes.

At the population level now, more than 10 years ago, I had the only new car in the village, and there were maybe two beat up pick ups, barely able to make it to the closest city.

No one had a tractor, a rice harvester, or even a mobile phone.

On the other end, there were no government loan schemes and the only debts were private, most generally between family members.

Today, every house has a car, and the associated credit.

Many houses even have two cars! Why bother? And of course two credits.

Of course, everyone, including 12 year old children, has a motorbike, also bought on credit.

It becomes even more ridiculous when it comes to tractors.

Considering the small size of their farming land, generally a few rais, they could easily deal with one, or maybe two tractors, for the whole village (we call that cooperative in Europe).

But no! They each want to have their own tractor, bought on credit obviously!

And there is the ubiquitous mobile phone, connected on the social website "line" 24/7, which they refill daily, buying small 10 or 20 baht packages.

Of course, with all this mandatory spending, there is not much left for food...often nothing!

I know that for a fact because my wife manages the village shop.

What little food she sells are eggs, small packs of rice noodles and small packs of chips and similar "kanom", all at 5 baht per piece.

She would never be able to sell any food at, say, 20 baht a piece.

Yet, she can easily sell 70cc bottles of gasoline at 30 baht!

As I use to tell her, people spend more to feed their motorbike than to feed themselves!

 

Now the big question: how are all these debt (credit) payments made?

Answer: modern slavery!

As soon as they reach the working age, the children are sent to some factory in Bangkok or Chonburi, or on a construction site anywhere in the country, where they will work 7 days a week, ask for overtime, with the aim of sending as much money as possible back to the village to pay for the family's tractor or new car.

And as soon as the payments will be over, they will start the same process for themselves!

 

Now, my friend, you write in a previous post that debt is debt, and that it is a necessary component of the economy, so that there is no reason to mention it.

Well, that is a wrong assumption!

A solid economy is built on savings, while an economy built on debt is nothing more than a Potemkin economy.

An economy slowly built on savings, as it used to be the case for millenia, until 1913, then 1971, was resilient, with few crisis that never lasted long.

An economy built on debt grows much faster, but goes through frequent crisis that each time grow in intensity, because debt is nothing more than a financial cancer...with a tumor growing exponentially, while the financiers, or banksters, pretend that it is nothing, just a little bump in the road.

What you described is called middle class lifestyle. 

  Borrow for what you want or need go to work and pay for it. Most people in developed countries that are middle class are in debt for 40 years of their life.Paying off a house and buying a new car every few years so why can Thais not enjoy the same. 

  To say it is ok for  developed countries suburbia but not rural Thailand seems odd.

  I did say debt is debt but if you read the whole things instead of cherry picking I said well managed debt in the long term  prospers rather than fails.If you really want to get into it debt to savings is also dependent on income and ratios of debt to savings,. But again that is not the topic of this thread. But to end this part I agree  improperly handled debt is unsustainable. But who is to judge what is and what is not sustainable. Certainly not  foreigners living in Thailand. Time will tell if it is sustainable or not. If you read other things I have posted I mentioned people so similar to you 25 years ago saying the same about how things were going in Thailand at that time and things like houses were getting to expensive and could not be maintained . They were very wrong so your points sound very much the same to me. 

  All that said the point of this thread was that Thais do have new cars and new houses and new big motorcycles and are eating in modern restaurants and staying in new hotels. You can speak doom is to come but does not mean it will. But you cannot deny boom is here.

9 hours ago, Brunolem said:

It is far from clear that the government has anything to do with the economic success of the country.

Generally, the less the government is involved in the economy, the better.

Socialism and communism (= massive government intervention) have shown again and again to lead to disaster.

Actually, socialism is leading the West to ruin.

Having said that, as I wrote in a post above, Thailand being very reliant on exports is very much influenced by the economic health of its partners.

Just look at what happened with the Russians, then the Chinese.

At some point, the Russians were everywhere, buying everything, fueling a boom, especially in construction.

Then the price of oil went South, and the Ruble followed suit, losing half of its value almost overnight.

And, as quickly as they had appeared from nowhere, the Russians disappeared, living Thailand with a hangover, especially in the construction sector.

Luckily for Thailand, the Chinese were starting to move out of their borders and soon replaced the Russians, at least in volume.

But, such dependency is always dangerous.

If a conflict starts in Korea, Chinese tourists will disappear even faster than the Russians.

 

You are right a country  reliant on exports is  influenced by it partners that rings true for all nations Thailand is not unique., That is trade in the simple form. Nothing every body does not already know and not  relative to rural Thailand domestic consumption  or infrastructure  development to a great degree.

  The Russians and Chinese did and do contribute but there again it is localised to tourist areas. The Russian spending was not nation felt. so it in reality had little effect on how Thais in rural areas live. 

  I get the sense from your post you are focusing on tourist related development and commerce. There is a lot more to Thailand than Phuket,Pattaya  and Koh Samui.

I would  like to mention that this thread is not about debt. Debt is debt pure and simple.Without it the world would not turn. It has been my experience in life that those who handle debt well prosper on the long term rather than fail. So lets leave debt out of this thread ok. 

 It is about do people see prosperity where they are in  Thailand or do they see doom and gloom. It appears prosperity is what people see, If there appears to be prosperity, could we be so brazen as to suggest Thailand is prospering? It is lsomethig like this  if it looks like a duck,walks like a duck,talks like a duck maybe it is a duck.

  I had little faith in the junta simply because I did approve of how they took power. But not being Thai and totally understanding how their society thinks and reacts I may have been wrong. 

    Maybe it is time some of us from democratic countries opened up our minds and stopped prejudging what is happeniing here. I feel a lot of us are in denial about how well rhis unelected military govt is doing..Perhaps we do not want to accept anything but democracy is good.

  But the reality is Thailand has never seen such wealth  spread around to so many people before in history. Middle class has arrived.

  I cannot judge if it came about because of past govt policies or present govt policies,but I can see it in every day life.   

  .

I would wish some one would import good quality electric space heaters for the cold season. Would be nice to heat some rooms in the house during cols season

1 hour ago, ncc1701d said:

My tgf’s shop is about half way between airport and Pattaya. Light to medium industrial zone. The whole area has an over supply of those 3-4 story townhouse style rows of shops. It’s quite ridiculous how many of those things get built and is such an eyesore. They are also hardly rented out. I would say 70% are empty. Her business itself is doing ok, but she and her family work hard at it. 

 

They are are not happy with the current leadership of the country.

Sometimes  people just want a place to park illegal gotten cash. So buildings are a great place to do it.It can rent or sell in the future but is not an issue.

  The chinese buy up high end Canadian property in Calgary tear it down and rebuild and never even come to see it. Just parking money.

2 hours ago, TKDfella said:

This is true. I note in my area the number of second hand car dealers has increased too. I was told that much of the increase was due to credit debts but whether that is true or not, I don't know.

I think most of the used cars and trucks are trade,s on new vehicle's.

  Most new  dealers do.not bother selling used just wholesale out to private used dealer's.

  That said Toyota a[[ears to try with used . I believe their sale lots are called Sure but they are the only ones I know of doing this.

It appears the consensus is things are getting better for the average thai.

  How or why it is happening is only speculation. But  from what I read here the middle class is making great steps forward in most areas. Some will question the sustainablity but that happens every where in the world and has for years. 

   I remember many dooms day people in Thailand  20 years ago saying that the cost of housing could not be sustained and things had to go down.Then you could buy a 2 bedroom 2 bath for 400,000 baht. They were wrong huh.

  Thai,s appear to be doing quite well. It is the white ghetto,s that are suffering. It goes with the Good guys in Bad guys out ..

  As we all know debt cannot be created without a source of income.Banks do not lend to unemployed people at least not in the country I come from.

  If I was a Thai the only thing I would want now is freedom of speech.

  Thank you to all who replied you have helped me better see how Thailand is probably better off with the junta.

I am confused on how things are really going here in Thailand. The govt paints a rosy picture. Thai visa members are saying things are going down the tubes. 

  People are saying they need more money, The government is not doing enough.

  But here where I live when I go out all I see is prosperity. New house are being built every  where. New cars and trucks are blocking the roads. New really modern restaurants ,cafes and coffee shops being built.Townhouses,hotels,apartments being built every where. New motorcycles every where.

  Maybe places like Pattaya are suffering, but out here in the rural area where I live it is boom town.. Perhaps Thailand is changing. All the expats who never ventured away from tourist areas see only what happens there. Maybe tourist areas are going through hard times but the rural area where I am is  developing quickly .A lot of money around.

  So how is it in other areas? Is it boom or doom?

  As a final note I thought the junta was running the country into the ground but when I go out and see what I see I begin to doubt myself. The locals are living better than I have ever seen.

I havenot been on TV for a while so missed this POTY thread. And see what must have been an oversight but I am not on the list. Certainly must be an error right.But that is ok no offense taken. (for those who do not under humour this is my idea of humour)

On 11/3/2017 at 10:23 PM, champers said:

I don't have anyone on ignore. It is an anonymous internet forum and should not be taken overly seriously. If anyone is being stalked I think a report to moderators should be in order.

What if the stalker is  a moderator?

Never been to Philippines but knew many Filipinas. My suggestion would be get a Filipina wife and live in Thailand.

 Filipina women win hands down in all ways. They are way more and better domestic,s. They take more pride in taking care of the home and family.They respect what you give them and  take care of what you give them. A perfect example of taking care of you give them is I gave a Filipina a pair of running shoes. 2 years later they still looked like new she cleaned after each time she wore them. I gave a pair to my Thai wife 2 months later they were wrecked.She never untied the laces and broke the back of the shoes. They were never cleaned and looked like rubbish.. Philippines country is a shithoole but the women are the best.

  Marry Filipina live Thailand.

Not sure if you have same company as me but mine is great. I was hit in a car park repaired and taken care of no problem. 

  I hit a cement post 2 years ago. Again they repaired it no problem. This year they discounted my insurance by 50 % for using their service for so many years.

  I would say ride it out with the company you have. You may be surprised in the future when you get a long term customer discount.

I first started because I found most posters to be funny but uninformed. and their posts were a laugh.

 I started posting to try and get some sort of intelligent conversation. That was like hitting my head against a wall.

 Now I post to show how much smarter I really am compared to the average poster.

 I still get a good laugh at the guys who post links to support what they say. Makes me wonder how do they have the time to research so much and also post every hour. Sometimes I think they must have a research team doing their finding of things to link too.Either that or do not have a life of their own and live for forums.

I was single back then. So I simply had 2 young women come my room and spent the day in carnal lust. n the evening they left i went out had  noodles went back to room to sleep.

With all the youtube videos out there about Thailand. I was wondering has anyone here seen themselves on any of these video's?

 Soi 6 ,walking street,Soi cowboy,KSR,sukhumvit etc all have many videos on youtube..

  I havenot found any with me luckily. But would like to know if other guys have been captured on youtube.

I have been told Prayuth is modelling Singapore as what he wants for Thailand.

  So I was wondering if Yingluck now is seeing herself as the Aung San Suu Kyi for Thailand. She may be taking the martyr  role. As we all know Asians are great on copy cat stuff. She has stated she will not run she will go to jail if need be. So it appears the stage is being set for martyr role.

 So what are peoples thoughts on Yingluck playing the martyr and positioning herself for international recognition and support? And if she does take that position what do you feel are her chances of success,? Or how will it play out?

13 hours ago, ratcatcher said:

"......my retirement visa (marriage) ........."

If you are retired, with a Thai wife and are extending your stay based on retirement, no home visit.

If you are extending your stay based on being married to a Thai, then possibly a home visit.

It's easy to tell from the income you declare, B65,000 pmo vs B40,000pmo.

  not in my case. 

I was on retirement visa for 4 years never a visit. Got married bought a house stayed on retirement visa. One day wife got a call immigration would come check me out the next day. They came took info and if I remember correctly they  ask my wife for money for processing fee..I am still on retirement visa it hasnot changed for years.

Any ones quess on that. You never know what immigration will do  It is play it as it goes no set rules.

Just now, wildewillie89 said:

Like I said, part of rehabilitation is not causing further pain to the victim. If you do not understand that simple concept, then sorry, I think it is you with the 'issues' (what a pathetic statement to start a reply with).

I, or anyone else,  couldn't give two shits what the man does in his own private space. When did I ever say he should be locked in a room and never be allowed out?..but does the victim and her family give two shits what he does in the public space? Probably, yes. 

Of course the past is the past for some. But is the past really the past for those who were raped? If you were raped would you like to see the guy who looked you in the eyes when he did in the media all of the time? Probably not. 

Seems you're just another sucker for a famous person. 

Like I said you have real issues. Seek help ok.