It seems that all his "warnings" are falling into some "you see, he threatens us again, but who cares?" pit.
Since December 2021 with press conferences and open letters in US media (was is WaPo?) nobody have taken him serious. Today's diplomacy is like a kids in kindergarten - nobody take it a word of stateman, rather "I won't chicken out!"
Minsk agreements were (also) about 120mm artilleries moving away from the line of fire - now there're 220mm monsters, cluster bombs, thermobaric carpet bombings, millions of refugees...
Somebody makes pretty big $$$ on this conflict, obviously