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Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the TPSO, said the energy category was the main factor behind the continued fall in inflation. Fuel prices declined due to increased compensation from the Oil Fuel Fund, while electricity tariffs were maintained at an average of 3.88 baht per unit. Fresh food prices also dropped because of oversupply, including pork, eggs, durian, Namwa bananas and watermelon.
Despite the overall fall in headline inflation, some items in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to rise. TPSO reported gradual price increases in beverages and ready-to-eat meals across several areas. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, rose by 0.56%.
The agency said the positive core inflation rate indicates that consumer purchasing power has not contracted and that Thailand has not entered a period of deflation. Officials emphasised that falling energy prices have been the primary driver of the negative headline figure, rather than a broad decline in prices across the economy.
TPSO warned that global oil prices remain a key risk factor for Thailand’s inflation outlook, particularly Dubai crude, which serves as the benchmark for the country’s energy costs. Energy accounts for roughly 12% of the inflation basket, while the transport, communications and vehicles category carries a weight of 22.25%.
If oil prices increase, the agency said costs could be passed on to consumers through higher transport fares, freight charges and goods prices. Ready-to-eat meals are seen as particularly sensitive to energy costs, with a weight of around 16% in the inflation basket and a tendency to rise quickly when costs increase but fall slowly afterwards.
TPSO outlined three possible inflation scenarios based on future Dubai crude prices. If oil averages US$80 per barrel, full-year inflation is expected to remain within 1–2%. If prices rise to US$100 per barrel, inflation could reach 2–3%, with ready-to-eat meal prices increasing in about 20% of areas nationwide.
In the most severe scenario, if oil climbs to US$120 per barrel, inflation could exceed 3%, and price increases for ready-to-eat meals may spread to more than half of the country.
The Commerce Ministry has maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 1–3%, assuming an average oil price of US$80 per barrel. Officials also confirmed that Thailand currently holds oil reserves sufficient for at least 60 days.
Provincial commerce offices have been instructed to monitor single-dish meal prices closely to ensure they do not rise unreasonably. TPSO said it will continue tracking economic indicators during the first quarter, including core inflation, employment and consumer confidence. The Nation reported that authorities said the inflation framework for 2026 may be reviewed once the economic impact of developments in March becomes clearer.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 6 Mar 2026
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Georgealbert
