Thailand Cuts Chinese Tourist Goal Amid Safety Concerns

Thailand is expected to receive fewer Chinese tourists in 2026 after the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) cut its annual target from 9 million arrivals to 7 million.

The revision comes as China Trading Desk, a travel data firm, lowered its forecast for Chinese outbound travel, saying a weak domestic economy is making travellers more selective about overseas holidays.

It now expects about 179 million outbound trips by Chinese travellers this year, with destination spending of around US$258 billion. Both forecasts are almost 3% below its June estimate, although they would still set records and remain above pre-pandemic levels.

Fewer trips, but spending remains steady

Subramania Bhatt, head of China Trading Desk, said Chinese travellers had not lost their appetite for travel but were weighing up more carefully when to go and whether a trip represented good value.

China's prolonged property crisis remains the main economic pressure on households. Conflict in the Middle East has also disrupted long-haul air routes, encouraging some travellers to choose destinations closer to home.

Hong Kong and Macau now account for nearly 40% of the Chinese outbound market. Hong Kong expects about 41 million trips from mainland China this year, although average visitor spending is only around US$310 each.

Thailand faces confidence concerns

Thailand's challenge is not simply the wider slowdown. ATTA cited safety concerns, including reported ransom cases, disappearances and scam-linked crime, as the main reason for reducing its Chinese arrivals target.

It also pointed to higher travel costs and negative coverage on Chinese social media. Heavy reporting of scam networks and safety incidents has damaged confidence among potential visitors, according to the report.

Japan, traditionally a major Chinese destination, has been affected by a diplomatic dispute over Taiwan. Chinese airlines have reduced flights, while arrivals from China are forecast to more than halve this year to 4.1 million.

South Korea is expected to benefit, attracting about 7 million Chinese visitors worth nearly US$13 billion, or roughly US$1,815 per traveller. France, meanwhile, expects only 2.2 million Chinese trips but average spending of US$7,622 per visitor.

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15 August 2026