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Thailand Cuts Chinese Tourist Goal Amid Safety Concerns

Thailand is expected to receive fewer Chinese tourists in 2026 after the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) cut its annual target from 9 million arrivals to 7 million.

The revision comes as China Trading Desk, a travel data firm, lowered its forecast for Chinese outbound travel, saying a weak domestic economy is making travellers more selective about overseas holidays.

It now expects about 179 million outbound trips by Chinese travellers this year, with destination spending of around US$258 billion. Both forecasts are almost 3% below its June estimate, although they would still set records and remain above pre-pandemic levels.

Fewer trips, but spending remains steady

Subramania Bhatt, head of China Trading Desk, said Chinese travellers had not lost their appetite for travel but were weighing up more carefully when to go and whether a trip represented good value.

China's prolonged property crisis remains the main economic pressure on households. Conflict in the Middle East has also disrupted long-haul air routes, encouraging some travellers to choose destinations closer to home.

Hong Kong and Macau now account for nearly 40% of the Chinese outbound market. Hong Kong expects about 41 million trips from mainland China this year, although average visitor spending is only around US$310 each.

Thailand faces confidence concerns

Thailand's challenge is not simply the wider slowdown. ATTA cited safety concerns, including reported ransom cases, disappearances and scam-linked crime, as the main reason for reducing its Chinese arrivals target.

It also pointed to higher travel costs and negative coverage on Chinese social media. Heavy reporting of scam networks and safety incidents has damaged confidence among potential visitors, according to the report.

Japan, traditionally a major Chinese destination, has been affected by a diplomatic dispute over Taiwan. Chinese airlines have reduced flights, while arrivals from China are forecast to more than halve this year to 4.1 million.

South Korea is expected to benefit, attracting about 7 million Chinese visitors worth nearly US$13 billion, or roughly US$1,815 per traveller. France, meanwhile, expects only 2.2 million Chinese trips but average spending of US$7,622 per visitor.

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15 August 2026

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lapamita Silver Member

lapamita

Advanced Member
34 minutes ago, Hotchilli123 said:

The Chinese tours came in waves, saw, spent, got scammed and left.

Now going elsewhere !

and the problems at home : property crisis and a slowing econommy , nothing new only new for TAT

wait when they revisa downward western arrivals , what when i look at central east thailand must be a lot..... but tat take time

Peter Crow Gold Member

Peter Crow

Advanced Member

Congrats to the government. Is their main [vote grabbing] policy to push back any kind of foreigner.

You are meeting your target, I'll give you a pay rise.

unblocktheplanet Star Member

unblocktheplanet

Advanced Member
5 hours ago, Mr Janneman said:

Now 2 million fewer Chinese. And how many fewer Russians will travel to Thailand in the coming period?

Hehe, except draft dodgers from the meat grinder! Welcome!

unblocktheplanet Star Member

unblocktheplanet

Advanced Member
3 hours ago, jcmj said:

Anutin dislike foreigners anyway and that is well known from his rants. Now, he loves the money they bring, but just not them staying here. Well, he is getting what he wants and he won’t do a damn thing until after the collapse. Like every single thing here that has a problem. They wait until after a major issue occurs until they decide to address it. Never forward thinking.

Plus many don’t want all of the hassle and scams anymore and will give Vietnam a shot. Just watch Thailand slowly slipping down the slide. At least looking on the bright side there will be a lot less traffic. It’s sad for the small mom and pop business, but this government doesn’t really care about the everyday people who are trying to make a living.

Would Anutin have any luck with a GoFundMe page?

MIke B Bad Gold Member

MIke B Bad

Advanced Member

That two million can't all be scammers running scared of the recent crack down, surely.

SingAPorn Gold Member

SingAPorn

Advanced Member

Thailand loves to attract the wrong type of tourists, but makes life difficult for the quality foreigner retriees who say own property and who should be given a hassle free 5 year unlimited entry visa plainly on showing their leasehold contract or condo purchase contract.

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member

To be honest, I really doubt that tourists are put off or scared to come toThailand. They probably aren't even aware of half the issues discussed on this board. Cross-border tourism is down in general worldwide (I think I read). In any case, Thailand will continue to attract first-timers, and if the baht continues to (finally) weaken, that might help too. But among my foreign friends living overseas, many of whom travel for international holidays each year, very few make repeat visits to Thailand. They return to Vietnam and Bali and Singapore. Thailand was just a 'been there, done that' bucket list.

orchidfan Gold Member

orchidfan

Advanced Member
7 hours ago, Jim Waldron said:

ATTA’s 20% downgrade isn’t a rounding error, it’s a damning admission that their early guess on Chinese demand was way off the mark.

Their latest guess might be closer. But the tough reality is that, even though Chinese travellers may still be spending, they are now choosier, and Thailand isn’t offering safety, value, or confidence.

The crime, scam, and ransom/disappearance stories circulating on Chinese social media must also be doing real damage. Add higher costs, plus Hong Kong and Macau soaking up 40% of the market with easier access, and Thailand’s appeal looks pretty thin.

The revised forecast doesn’t just show fewer travellers, it also suggests travellers expect more than Thailand is currently offering.

Until safety perception and value improve, I suspect ATTA will need to use their eraser again!

You're quite right of course.

Also, knowing HK and Macao well after working there for 20 years, they don't offer tropical beaches, gogo/ girlie bars (well, very few, and very expensive) and booze in a "take away" lady bars like Thailand does, but then mainlanders are not looking for these.

They like shopping, fine dining, sightseeing and gambling.

( not sunshine)

The 2nd and 4th items either not available or as easily accessible in tiny Hong Kong and Macao.

Both of these "SARs" are exceptionally safe and orderly thanks to the previous colonial rulers. Great Britain and Portugal.

AND the Rule of Law!

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member
1 minute ago, SingAPorn said:

Thailand loves to attract the wrong type of tourists, but makes life difficult for the quality foreigner retriees who say own property and who should be given a hassle free 5 year unlimited entry visa plainly on showing their leasehold contract or condo purchase contract.

I don't think they care whether you own a condo or not. From their perspective, that was a one-hit wonder for a Thai developer or real estate investor. You are a tourist on a one-year Non-Imm O visa - there is no such thing (formally) as a 'retirement visa'. But It's why the BOI created some special LTR visas for 'wealthy pensioners' and LTR investors and LTR professional visas - because it meant those with more money would spend much of it here. Thailand doesn't want riff raff tourists/retirees. Condo or no condo. It's why they keep making it more difficult and expensive for those on a low budget to stay here long term. They've been tightening the screws for years in that direction. Some long-timers are leaving because of it. Many of those who don't leave just keep whinging about it.

Peter Crow Gold Member

Peter Crow

Advanced Member
21 minutes ago, SingAPorn said:

Thailand loves to attract the wrong type of tourists, but makes life difficult for the quality foreigner retriees who say own property and who should be given a hassle free 5 year unlimited entry visa plainly on showing their leasehold contract or condo purchase contract.

In fact the LTR visa does that in various forms. But will it survive Anutin?

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member
13 minutes ago, Peter Crow said:

In fact the LTR visa does that in various forms. But will it survive Anutin?

Good question. I think it might survive - I mean they can't take it away from those who have them. But will he try to shut it down or phase it out? - he could. Or he could expand it. Like offer Chinese a cut-rate version that is cheaper but still gives them 5 years. I think his dislike is concentrated on Westerners, as opposed to all foreigners. But westerners dominate the BOI LTRs from what I can tell.

Sir Dude Gold Member

Sir Dude

Advanced Member

Thailand's biggest problem is not errant westerners... it the Chinese. They are a product of such an awful regime that they will risk everything to enrich themselves at the cost of all others, regardless of anything, because the society they come from is so evil and suppressive. Wake up.

SiSePuede419 Ruby Member

SiSePuede419

Advanced Member

I don't understand why the Chinese come to Thailand.

Rural China is cheaper. Even the big city of Beijing has cheap local places, cheaper than Bangkok, for sure.

And because Yunnan was depopulated long ago it's considered an ecological paradise. Take away the Chinese people who eat everything with four legs except tables and the environment tends to recover. 😋

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member
21 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

Thailand's biggest problem is not errant westerners... it the Chinese. They are a product of such an awful regime that they will risk everything to enrich themselves at the cost of all others, regardless of anything, because the society they come from is so evil and suppressive. Wake up.

If you haven't seen it lately, you should take a drive through and around RCA and Huai Kwang - Chinese everything. All the signs. the restaurants, shops, whole condo towers.

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member
13 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

And because Yunnan was depopulated long ago it's considered an ecological paradise.

It's beautiful for sure. Terraced rice fields, hills. One of the provinces with the most diverse ethnic minorities. There is a saying there when translated means: "The mountains are high, and the Emperor is far away"

Fairly decent wine too. But Kunming had four Walmarts last time I was there and was like any other big Chinese city.

Mr Janneman Apprentice Member

Mr Janneman

Members
1 hour ago, unblocktheplanet said:

Hehe, except draft dodgers from the meat grinder! Welcome!

Russia's borders are going to be closed to prevent conscripts from fleeing. Russians are already unable to travel because there is no more gasoline, and aviation kerosene is running out as well.

Peter Crow Gold Member

Peter Crow

Advanced Member
41 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

Good question. I think it might survive - I mean they can't take it away from those who have them. But will he try to shut it down or phase it out? - he could. Or he could expand it. Like offer Chinese a cut-rate version that is cheaper but still gives them 5 years. I think his dislike is concentrated on Westerners, as opposed to all foreigners. But westerners dominate the BOI LTRs from what I can tell.

That, and even if they don't change anything many LTR holders, or potential holders, might get so peed off by the new xenophobic climate create fuelled by Mr. A they they go elsewhere and the LTR dies by lack of candidates.

tai4de2 Advanced Member

tai4de2

Member
19 hours ago, Georgealbert said:

Conflict in the Middle East has also disrupted long-haul air routes, encouraging some travellers to choose destinations closer to home

How does conflict in the Middle East affect air routes between China and Thailand?

DonniePeverley Platinum Member

DonniePeverley

Advanced Member

You cannot legalise cannabis, drugs rife in the tourists zones, take a soft approach on crime (at least since covid), allow in masses of trash visitors without money, allow long term visa stays without criminal record checks - then say OOOPzzzz we better sort the crime out.

They need to connect the dots.

Since the previous adminstration eased visa rules and the legalisation of marijauana the violence and bad behaviour is through the roof. Chinese visitors are not used to this type of disorder - if you are concerned about catering for them.

What happened to scaling back to 30 day visas? Nothing came of that either.

Not a single thing being done.

Aussie999 Platinum Member

Aussie999

Advanced Member

Not just Chinese numbers down...but here's the thing, Thailand doesn't know how to stop the downward trend, in fact, it seems to know how to continue the downward trend...having an incompetent PM, Anutin, who calls us "filthy" farangs doesn't help, tends to turn Thais xenophobic.

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