Iraq's Kurdish parliament backs September 25 independence referendum

[rooster59]

Iraq's Kurdish parliament backs September 25 independence referendum

By Raya Jalabi

 

People celebrate to show their support for the upcoming September 25th independence referendum in Zakho, Iraq September 14, 2017. REUTERS/Ari Jalal

 

ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) - The parliament of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region approved a plan on Friday to hold a referendum on independence on Sept. 25, ignoring opposition from Baghdad and the wider region as well as Western concerns that the vote could spark fresh conflict.

 

Parliament reconvened in Erbil, the seat of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, where an overwhelming majority of the Kurdish lawmakers taking part backed the plan.

 

Hours after the decision, the White House publicly called for the first time on the KRG to cancel the referendum, warning that the vote was "distracting from efforts to defeat ISIS (Islamic State) and stabilise the liberated areas."

 

"The United States does not support the Kudistan Regional Government's intention to hold a referendum later this month," the White House said in a statement. It urged the KRG to "enter into serious and sustained dialogue with Baghdad, which the United States has repeatedly indicated it is prepared to facilitate."

 

The regional parliament's decision came despite an intense diplomatic drive by the United States, which has provided critical military aid to the KRG's fight against Islamic State, to persuade the Kurdish leadership to cancel the referendum.

 

The parliament session was the first held since the legislature was suspended nearly two years ago, though only 68 of 111 lawmakers attended due to a boycott by the main opposition movement Gorran.

 

"We've been waiting more than 100 years for this," Omed Khoshnaw, a lawmaker from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDR) of KRG President Massoud Barzani, told Reuters.

 

"There is no other way to guarantee that genocide will never be repeated," Khoshnaw told the assembly earlier, referring to the persecution of the Kurds and their expulsion from areas such as oil-rich Kirkuk under late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

 

Some lawmakers wore Kurdish flags and rose to clap and sing the national anthem after the vote.

 

The Baghdad parliament's decision earlier this week to oppose the referendum drew condemnation from deputies in Erbil.

 

"We refuse to accept the Iraqi parliament's decision, which was unlawful," Muna Qahwachi, a Turkman lawmaker, told Reuters.

 

Qahwachi said she had voted in favour of the referendum because she said Turkmen were protected in Kurdistan, unlike in the rest of Iraq.

 

PRESSURE REBUFFED

 

Earlier, Barzani shrugged off requests from the United States and other Western powers to put off the referendum. They fear increased tensions between Baghdad and Erbil will distract from the war on Islamic State militants who still occupy parts of Iraq and Syria.

 

"We still haven't heard a proposal that can be an alternative to the Kurdistan referendum," Barzani told a rally in the Kurdish region, referring to a proposal put forward by the United States and other Western envoys this week.

 

Iraq's neighbours Iran and Turkey also oppose the plebiscite, fearing an independent Kurdish state could fuel separatism among their own Kurdish populations.

 

The opposition Gorran movement boycotted Friday's parliamentary session, the first since a dispute between them and Barzani's KDP caused the suspension of the assembly in October 2015.

 

"Those assembled in parliament today think this is a lawful session, but this is unlawful," Birzu Majeed, the head of Gorran's parliamentary block, told a news conference held while parliament was in session.

 

Lawmakers from a third party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), ensured the required quorum. The PUK is a historic rival of the KDP but supports the referendum plan.

 

Meanwhile, Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'ite paramilitary groups have threatened to dislodge the Kurdish forces from the Kirkuk region, which is due to take part in the referendum.

 

Kirkuk is home to sizeable Arab and Turkmen populations and lies outside the official boundaries of the Kurdistan region. It is claimed by both the Kurds and the central government in Baghad.

 

Kurdish peshmerga fighters seized Kirkuk and other disputed territories when the Iraqi army collapsed in the face of Islamic State in 2014, preventing its oilfields from falling into militant hands.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-09-16

 

[Rancid]

And why wouldn't they? Lots of that oil revenue has been finding its way into politicians pockets, must keep the gravy train running. Nothing ever changes...

[Caps]

I for one hope they get their own independence, the Kurds have been battered about for a long time by many different countries/leaders.

[Scott]

I lived and worked in Northern Iraq for several years.   I loved the area and the people and still have many, many friends there.   I wish them the best.  They are going to have problems with the Iranians and with the Turks.  

 

They have quite westernized views on gov't and a lot of exposure to western culture and democratic ideals.   Of course, they remain strongly affiliated to their tribes, but hopefully they will continue to make strides in overcoming those divisions.  

 

[Morch]

I think this is more about sending a message, and less about taking actual steps toward independence. Unless mistaken the referendum is not an imminent deceleration of independence, but a decision as to whether such a deceleration will be made, sometime in the future.

 

Even if the Kurds do manage to overcome their internal differences, there is still a very strong opposition to their ambitions from without. As players from outside the region are more worried (as usual) about angering their allies and alliances falling apart, the favorable sentiment toward the Kurds doesn't come into play. A Kurdish state, landlocked between hostile neighbors, and lacking strong international support might not be viable.

 

A couple of the main issues remaining unsolved between the Iraqi govrenment and Kurds, since Saddam's demise, are control of Kirkuk, and the ownership and taxation of oil fields within Kurdish territory. It is possible that the Kurdish move is more about leveraging for a favorable outcome with regard to these issues. Dropping, or not following up on the referendum, in return for concessions. Another possible leverage point may have to do with the Iraqi elections, scheduled for next year. If the Kurds persist with the independence drive, either through seceding or not participating - thus placing question marks over the legitimacy of the elections and the government.

 

[Caps]

5 hours ago, Scott said:

I lived and worked in Northern Iraq for several years.   I loved the area and the people and still have many, many friends there.   I wish them the best.  They are going to have problems with the Iranians and with the Turks.  

 

They have quite westernized views on gov't and a lot of exposure to western culture and democratic ideals.   Of course, they remain strongly affiliated to their tribes, but hopefully they will continue to make strides in overcoming those divisions.  

 

Yes far different to the Baghdad, Basra areas.  I have not spent a lot of time in the Erbil area but lots of time around the areas of Baghdad and Basra.  A total different outlook.

[craigt3365]

Had dinner with a guy working in Baghdad.  I asked about Erbil, as some of my friends have visited over the past few years.  All had great things to say about it.  But, he says with IS on the run, they are "disappearing" into the local population.  Kidnappings are up, etc.  He said it's not what it was a few years ago.  Quite dangerous now.

[Scott]

6 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Had dinner with a guy working in Baghdad.  I asked about Erbil, as some of my friends have visited over the past few years.  All had great things to say about it.  But, he says with IS on the run, they are "disappearing" into the local population.  Kidnappings are up, etc.  He said it's not what it was a few years ago.  Quite dangerous now.

I think that ISIS will have trouble disappearing among the Kurds.   They are pretty tight knit.   They have a fair amount of animosity toward the Arabs, although they aren't outwardly or openly hostile to anyone who isn't threatening them.   I think it is easiest to view  them as being similar to the Thais, who are quite aware of anyone who isn't Thai.   

 

The various political factions, which are mainly the KDP and PUK, are very militarized are capable fighters.   There are various other smaller political parties which would align themselves with the larger parties at times.  

 

As I understand it, the economy in the area is reasonably strong and good and politically it's reasonably stable.   There will be some major challenges ahead for them.

 

First, Iraqi Kurdistan is landlocked and will be subject to the whims of the neighbors.   Second, they do not have a well developed oil industry in the area under their direct control.   There is oil, but it is not the easily extracted oil like the major oil fields under Iraqi control. 

 

Third will be the issue of the border with Iraq.   Kirkuk and Mosul were originally Kurdish areas, but many Kurds were displaced and replaced with Arab families -- a process called Arabization.   Those are the areas that also have huge oil reserves.  

 

The area is primarily Sunni, with smaller numbers of Christians and Shiites and other religious minorities.  

 

It would be extremely helpful to have a reasonably stable, democratic country in the area.  

 

[Morch]

Here's another angle to consider, that's more to do with Kurdish internal political conflicts. Not an alternative to other accounts, but perhaps complimenting.

 

Barzani's term in office officially ended in 2013, but extended by a couple of years. Since 2015, though, the legitimacy of him continuing on is questionable. Bringing up the referendum, whether actually followed by a deceleration of Kurdish independence, may serve as a viable pretext for not changing leadership. And if a deceleration of independence does, in fact, materializes - wouldn't hurt the family image being at the helm.

 

[ilostmypassword]

22 hours ago, Scott said:

I think that ISIS will have trouble disappearing among the Kurds.   They are pretty tight knit.   They have a fair amount of animosity toward the Arabs, although they aren't outwardly or openly hostile to anyone who isn't threatening them.   I think it is easiest to view  them as being similar to the Thais, who are quite aware of anyone who isn't Thai.   

 

The various political factions, which are mainly the KDP and PUK, are very militarized are capable fighters.   There are various other smaller political parties which would align themselves with the larger parties at times.  

 

As I understand it, the economy in the area is reasonably strong and good and politically it's reasonably stable.   There will be some major challenges ahead for them.

 

First, Iraqi Kurdistan is landlocked and will be subject to the whims of the neighbors.   Second, they do not have a well developed oil industry in the area under their direct control.   There is oil, but it is not the easily extracted oil like the major oil fields under Iraqi control. 

 

Third will be the issue of the border with Iraq.   Kirkuk and Mosul were originally Kurdish areas, but many Kurds were displaced and replaced with Arab families -- a process called Arabization.   Those are the areas that also have huge oil reserves.  

 

The area is primarily Sunni, with smaller numbers of Christians and Shiites and other religious minorities.  

 

It would be extremely helpful to have a reasonably stable, democratic country in the area.  

 

Are you sure about that oil there being hard to extract? I've read that there are lots of petroleum seeps at the surface. My impression was that it's extremely easy to extract.

And there is this from The Economist:

https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21565678-iraqi-kurds-and-western-oil-firms-have-outfoxed-government-baghdad

Also, you've overlooked the Iraqi Turkmens. They actually consider Kirkuk to be their  unofficial capital city.

Edited September 17, 2017 by ilostmypassword
added a link

[Scott]

There is oil seepage and I remember once traveling through a mountainous range where oil was seeping out onto the road -- creating a bit of a driving hazard.   It would have been very hard to drill in an area like that and the seepage was not of a commercial nature.  

 

There is no doubt there is oil, but large areas are mountainous and between extraction and transport, it will not be particularly easy. 

 

I am a member of a Facebook group that deals with Kurdish issues, and details many of the oil deals made by the Kurds.   It does not change the fact that they are landlocked and will have to transport oil through Turkey or Iraq proper.  

 

Kirkuk is, or at least was, under the control of the Iraqi gov't.   I don't know if they will have much luck getting it included in the independent country.   As I said, the border issue could be a problem.  

[ilostmypassword]

2 minutes ago, Scott said:

There is oil seepage and I remember once traveling through a mountainous range where oil was seeping out onto the road -- creating a bit of a driving hazard.   It would have been very hard to drill in an area like that and the seepage was not of a commercial nature.  

 

There is no doubt there is oil, but large areas are mountainous and between extraction and transport, it will not be particularly easy. 

 

I am a member of a Facebook group that deals with Kurdish issues, and details many of the oil deals made by the Kurds.   It does not change the fact that they are landlocked and will have to transport oil through Turkey or Iraq proper.  

 

Kirkuk is, or at least was, under the control of the Iraqi gov't.   I don't know if they will have much luck getting it included in the independent country.   As I said, the border issue could be a problem.  

As for Kirkuk, the Kurds would also have the Turkmen to contend with. And that probably means contending with Turkey.

[Scott]

It most certainly does.   Turkey frequently made bombing raids into Northern Iraq, usually under the pretext of chasing the PKK.   They also made incursions if anyone messed with the Turkmen.