Progress in Brexit talks has lessened chance of disorderly exit - Reuters poll

[Grouse]

57 minutes ago, aright said:

benefit has an s on the end

E.g. Exempli gratia.

[aright]

That's for you so say. You were the one who referred to unique benefits.

Oh dear! Are you having problems identifying them?

[tomacht8]

Already great as here the Brexit is calculated.
For information only: The esteemed 45-60 billion only concern payments to the EU budget until 2020 + longer-term commitments (eg pensions).
Than the UK is out.
All further agreements. Access to the common market - will be charged separately. On the part of the UK, the Norwegian model is preferred. The Norwegians also pay here annually in the EU pot, but without voting rights. Although not part of the EU, Norway voluntarily contributes 2.8 billion euros to support economic and social cohesion in poorer Eastern European countries.
Noewegen has taken over 80% of the EU regulations.
If the UK wants full access to the common market, the UK will have to make contributions that roughly match current contributions.
The fairytale hour of some Brexiters has an end there.

[Grouse]

Bye bye, everyone, bye bye!

 

 

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

"The gravity equation in international trade is one of the most robust empirical finding in economics: bilateral trade between two countries is proportional to size, measured by GDP, and inversely proportional to the geographic distance between them."

http://www.nber.org/papers/w19285

"Gravity has long been one of the most successful empirical models in economics. Incorporating the theoretical foundations of gravity into recent practice has led to a richer and more accurate estimation and interpretation of the spatial relations described by gravity"

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16576

 

But none of this matters in the case of the UK because Brexit is Magic!!!

 

Would that be the economic theory which works so well that most of the west's marquee companies pay factories on the other side of the world in Asia to manufacture their goods, re-brand them and then ship the across the world to the west for sale by those marquee companies?

Would that be the economic theory which works so well that entities such as the EU have to put protectionist tariffs on fruit and veg from South America and meat from Australasia which is cheaper even when shipped across the world to Europe, because the EU's fresh produce industries would be annihilated if those tariffs were not imposed? The same economic theory whose 'rules' are broken day-in day-out, week-in week-out, year-in year-out by the countries and businesses of the world?

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

'Nothing absurd? Really? In negotiations it's desirable to at least start from a position of equality with the other side. But it's the UK that will be the needier party here. It's going to have a clock ticking until its agreement with the EU expires. Why wouldn't other nations take advantage of this fact? Because members of the commonwealth are still grateful to the UK? Because in the case of some english speaking nations anglo-saxon solidarit will trump sordid economic interests. It's the UK that's under the gun. 

 

In your humble opinion.

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

What makes this comment even more absurd is the fact that the gravity relationship has been observed throughout the economic world and throughoug a huge variety of trade relationships. So to say that something new and different is coming that's going to overturn this relationship is not much different from invoking magic as the reason.

 

Except that the "gravity relationship" is routinely ignored by many large businesses on a daily basis.

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

What is essentially different about Brexit that means you can't predict the effects of it? And what has that got to do with economic gravitation? There's nothing inscrutable about Brexit or not analyzable. It's just big, that's all. What new economic or financial principles will come into play as a result of Brexit? You're just peddling persiflage.

 

Your economic model got it's post-referendum prediction hopelessly wrong. And don't try the excuse that we haven't brexited yet: the prediction was for an immediate causal effect of a vote to leave.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

Not so. 

"In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.6 billion.

Each year the UK gets a discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £4 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £17 billion in contributions."

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

 

The figures can never be properly calculated until the end of the relevant budgetary year, but the final figure for the year in question was a nett £10.9 billion payment.

[tomacht8]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

Would that be the economic theory which works so well that most of the west's marquee companies pay factories on the other side of the world in Asia to manufacture their goods, re-brand them and then ship the across the world to the west for sale by those marquee companies?

Would that be the economic theory which works so well that entities such as the EU have to put protectionist tariffs on fruit and veg from South America and meat from Australasia which is cheaper even when shipped across the world to Europe, because the EU's fresh produce industries would be annihilated if those tariffs were not imposed? The same economic theory whose 'rules' are broken day-in day-out, week-in week-out, year-in year-out by the countries and businesses of the world?

Everyone buys where it is cheaper, if the product quality is identical.
But the product quality is mostly not identical.
Have you ever had a soldering iron made in Thailand / China in your hand?
All products imported into the EU are subject not only to a potential duty but also to a safety and functional check.
You can buy here the soldering iron in Thailand for 20 Baht if it makes you happy.
Fortunately, the EU does not let this garbage into the country.
And even over your NI boarder, hopefully you will not be able to smuggle that garbage.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

Already great as here the Brexit is calculated.
For information only: The esteemed 45-60 billion only concern payments to the EU budget until 2020 + longer-term commitments (eg pensions).
Than the UK is out.
All further agreements. Access to the common market - will be charged separately. On the part of the UK, the Norwegian model is preferred. The Norwegians also pay here annually in the EU pot, but without voting rights. Although not part of the EU, Norway voluntarily contributes 2.8 billion euros to support economic and social cohesion in poorer Eastern European countries.
Noewegen has taken over 80% of the EU regulations.
If the UK wants full access to the common market, the UK will have to make contributions that roughly match current contributions.
The fairytale hour of some Brexiters has an end there.

 

Ah! Tomacht must be on Barnier's negotiating team. Either that, or he's just making stuff up .

[Khun Han]

2 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Everyone buys where it is cheaper, if the product quality is identical.
But the product quality is mostly not identical.
Have you ever had a soldering iron made in Thailand / China in your hand?
All products imported into the EU are subject not only to a potential duty but also to a safety and functional check.
You can buy here the soldering iron in Thailand for 20 Baht if it makes you happy.
Fortunately, the EU does not let this garbage into the country.
And even over your NI boarder, hopefully you will not be able to smuggle that garbage.

 

Excuses, excuses. The bald fact is that many, if not most of the types of goods you are referring to are manufactured in the east and re-branded with western names. Have a look at the country of manufacture on the boxes of products the next time you are in a retail store.

[tomacht8]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Ah! Tomacht must be on Barnier's negotiating team. Either that, or he's just making stuff up .

Thank you for your posting.
As always, there are so many facts in your reposts included again.
Try to approach the whole thing more intellectually and less ideological.
 

[Khun Han]

5 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Thank you for your posting.
As always, there are so many facts in your reposts included again.
Try to approach the whole thing more intellectually and less ideological.
 

 

Try to stop making stuff up about behind-closed-doors negotiations about which you know nothing.

[tomacht8]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

Try to stop making stuff up about behind-closed-doors negotiations about which you know nothing.

It is obvious that you think you know everything.
But you have no idea of the theoretical premises of the perfect market.
Admit it.

[aright]

20 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

.
Have you ever had a soldering iron made in Thailand / China in your hand?
 

Are T'Pau making soldering irons now?

[Khun Han]

8 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

It is obvious that you think you know everything.
But you have no idea of the theoretical premises of the perfect market.
Admit it.

 

The difference between us, Thomacht, is that you look at everything economics and trade through theory, whereas I look at it through practicality and actual events. I suppose that's why you're a lecturer and I'm a businessman.

[tomacht8]

21 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Excuses, excuses. The bald fact is that many, if not most of the types of goods you are referring to are manufactured in the east and re-branded with western names. Have a look at the country of manufacture on the boxes of products the next time you are in a retail store.

Applause for this.
All products that have undergone a quality check will get a sales approval in the EU. The quantities are subject to a trade agreement. If that were not the case, China would swamp the UK with Marmite copies. Sorry, but you have no idea about international trade.

[Khun Han]

4 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Applause for this.
All products that have undergone a quality check will get a sales approval in the EU. The quantities are subject to a trade agreement. If that were not the case, China would swamp the UK with Marmite copies. Sorry, but you have no idea about international trade.

 

China has swamped (not only) the UK with product. It's just that most of it is re-branded and imported by western companies. Throw up red herrings about quality control, etc, if you like. And feel free to carry on dishing out the insults. All your arguments have been shown up to be hollow, and shrouded in gobbledigook to make them appear intellectual.

[aright]

11 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

We will pay 50 billion, lose our leverage and freedom of movement but we gain, er, well, I'm sure it's something really super!

Do you anticipate freedom of movement will be curtailed by building a wall north and south of Calais? Where have heard that one before?

What leverage do you anticipate we will loose, you haven't been great at answering the questions your comments generate.

I can give an example of leverage gained.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/02/fishermen-should-land-brexit-benefits/

[ilostmypassword]

6 hours ago, aright said:

Not so? All I said was we paid in £17b and got a rebate of £4b I didn't mention net contribution

Which is why you chose in this follow up to include the fact that almost 5 billion comes back? Really? But thanks for the note that even more money goes back to the UK in the form of payments to the private sector. So it could be substantially less than 8 billion. Which by the way, is slightly over 1 percent of total british tax revenues.

[ilostmypassword]

5 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Would that be the economic theory which works so well that most of the west's marquee companies pay factories on the other side of the world in Asia to manufacture their goods, re-brand them and then ship the across the world to the west for sale by those marquee companies?

Would that be the economic theory which works so well that entities such as the EU have to put protectionist tariffs on fruit and veg from South America and meat from Australasia which is cheaper even when shipped across the world to Europe, because the EU's fresh produce industries would be annihilated if those tariffs were not imposed? The same economic theory whose 'rules' are broken day-in day-out, week-in week-out, year-in year-out by the countries and businesses of the world?

First off, it's the size of the economy times the inverse of the difference. Second, you can cherry pick portions of exports all you like, but it's the aggregate of exports that count.  And until you publish research disproving this or direct to a source that does, I'll trust the people who collect actual data and not just cherry picked stuff without numbers attached to it.

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

The difference between us, Thomacht, is that you look at everything economics and trade through theory, whereas I look at it through practicality and actual events. I suppose that's why you're a lecturer and I'm a businessman.

And I'm Father Christmas.

[aright]

27 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Which is why you chose in this follow up to include the fact that almost 5 billion comes back? Really? But thanks for the note that even more money goes back to the UK in the form of payments to the private sector. So it could be substantially less than 8 billion. Which by the way, is slightly over 1 percent of total british tax revenues.

You really need help. All I said was we paid in 17b and got a rebate of 4b which put the cost of membership at 13b which my follow up showed . You seem to want to talk about figures Iike net contribution et al which I didn't even mention. From my follow up can you show me where my figures were wrong?

Too much wiki and a lack of focus. 

[aright]

34 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

And I'm Father Christmas.

Definitely not Santa. Santa Anna maybe but more likely the Grim Reaper or the Mad Monk. 

[aright]

53 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

First off, it's the size of the economy times the inverse of the difference. Second, you can cherry pick portions of exports all you like, but it's the aggregate of exports that count.  And until you publish research disproving this or direct to a source that does, I'll trust the people who collect actual data and not just cherry picked stuff without numbers attached to it.

Can I nominate the first sentence as TVF's best sentence of 2017.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

And I'm Father Christmas.

No, you're a dressmaker.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

First off, it's the size of the economy times the inverse of the difference. Second, you can cherry pick portions of exports all you like, but it's the aggregate of exports that count.  And until you publish research disproving this or direct to a source that does, I'll trust the people who collect actual data and not just cherry picked stuff without numbers attached to it.

 

You're hilarious. You haven't got sh1t to support your sh1t. Aggregate of exports now, is it? Do you remainers ever actually take a step back and  wonder if your debating opponents analyse the crap that you post? If you started doing so, an actual debate would begin .

[Khun Han]

54 minutes ago, aright said:

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

First off, it's the size of the economy times the inverse of the difference. Second, you can cherry pick portions of exports all you like, but it's the aggregate of exports that count.  And until you publish research disproving this or direct to a source that does, I'll trust the people who collect actual data and not just cherry picked stuff without numbers attached to it.

Can I nominate the first sentence as TVF's best sentence of 2017.

 

Unfortunately, I'm going to nominate it as TVF's most inane sentence of 2017. But good call anyway.

[ilostmypassword]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

You're hilarious. You haven't got sh1t to support your sh1t. Aggregate of exports now, is it? Do you remainers ever actually take a step back and  wonder if your debating opponents analyse the crap that you post? If you started doing so, an actual debate would begin .

In a way, you're right. I should have written aggregate of exports and imports. That said, it's really simple to get these figures and show that it's you who is writing the nonsense. 

First set of figures is imports.

The second set is exports

I'll leave you to do the arithmetic  Although it's clear you're severely challenged in that department.

Imports

	Value	Year
Germany	$87.60B	2016
China	$59.60B	2016
United States	$57.13B	2016
Netherlands	$46.85B	2016
France	$35.78B	2016
Belgium	$31.71B	2016
Switzerland	$26.61B	2016
Italy	$24.21B	2016
Spain	$21.74B	2016
Ireland	$18.15B	2016
Norway	$17.28B	2016
Canada	$13.44B	2016
Japan	$13.00B	2016
Poland	$12.44B	2016
Turkey	$12.21B	2016
South Africa	$9.79B	2016
India	$8.60B	2016
Sweden	$8.51B	2016
Hong Kong	$7.62B	2016
Czech Republic	$7.27B	2016
Australia	$7.05B	2016
South Korea	$5.95B	2016
Denmark	$5.32B	2016
Russia	$5.27B	2016
Vietnam	$5.08B	2016

 

 

Exports:

	Value	Year
United States	$62.33B	2016
Germany	$44.24B	2016
France	$26.49B	2016
Netherlands	$25.80B	2016
Ireland	$23.15B	2016
Switzerland	$20.02B	2016
China	$18.37B	2016
Belgium	$15.89B	2016
Italy	$13.23B	2016
Spain	$13.12B	2016
United Arab Emirates	$9.23B	2016
Hong Kong	$9.12B	2016
Saudi Arabia	$6.70B	2016
Japan	$6.48B	2016
Canada	$6.30B	2016
Singapore	$6.26B	2016
Turkey	$6.25B	2016
Sweden	$6.23B	2016
South Korea	$6.04B	2016
Poland	$5.74B	2016
Australia	$5.37B	2016
India	$4.48B	2016
Norway	$4.19B	2016
Russia	$3.52B	2016
Denmark	$3.40B	2016