Surreal

retoohs · January 20, 2018

On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 11:00 PM, kekalot said:

market cap is the current price per coin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation

example: Bitcoin: $11,690.90 per coin and 16,811,900 coins = $196,546,241,710 market cap

absolutely impossible to sell even 10% of those coins at this price, there are not enough buyers, the price would drop quickly until the 10% are sold (plus some people that are panic selling)

in fact you would not even be able to sell 1% of the coins (168,119 of them) at current price because there are not enough buyers

https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD

check on the left side and let me know if you ever see anything over 1000 BTC (you won't). green for people buying, red is people selling

and even if in theory it dropped to 5000$, the market cap would be 84,059,500,000$ and still mean nothing because within a few days the price would skyrocket back to the current selling price because people are not willing to sell under $11,690

it means absolutely nothing for crypto

if someone created 1,000,000,000 circulation alt coin and sold them ALL at 10 cents each to me, it creates a 100 million market cap but if I bought all those coins and decided that i'm not selling one of them under 1$ then it's now 10x that and can only go up since no one in their right mind would sell it under the price they paid for.

no offense but you could have found that by yourself if you bothered to Google what you seem to want to diss

market cap doesn't mean squat.

The banks are supported by paper gold and if everyone that has bought paper gold went to cash in at the same time the banks would collapse because they don't have the money to back up the paper gold they have sold. Fiat currency is running on borrowed time. The other thing is the monetary system we are using is not designed for the digital age and will show more shortcomings in the near future

Brunolem · January 21, 2018

11 hours ago, 12DrinkMore said:

There was too much lending by the banks to a relatively small number of subprime borrowers.

That was the catalyst.

Massive lending was blamed on the US central bank for keeping the interest rate too low for too long.

Now, remember that the rate had been left a 1% for about 1 year, which was considered irresponsible at that time.

Yet, this time the interest rate has been flirting with 0% for almost 10 years!

It has taken more than 2 years for the US central bank to bring it just over 1%, and Europe and Japan are still stuck in negative rates...10 years on!

How can anyone expect a better outcome than what we got in 2008, when the dosage of monetary "steroids" has been increased tenfold?

As many observers say, instead of purging the system when it was possible with a manageable amount of pain, the central banks have painted themselves in a corner and the eventual resulting pain is going to be unbearable.

The longer the fake recovery will last, the higher the level of pain will be.

Unless of course the slate is wiped clean thanks to a nice global conflict...

Brunolem · January 21, 2018

4 hours ago, retoohs said:

Crpto to banks is what Amazon is to bookshops and Netflix is to video stores. Alt currency is here to stay and us of the older generation just have problems getting our head around it. Bitcoin https://bitcoin.org/en/ will not survive imho, it is first generation crypto. Etherium https://www.ethereum.org/ is a 2nd gen coin and the platform many of the other coins and tokens are built on. Etherium is likely to survive because so many are reliant on it as a platform. Now we have 3rd gen coins/tokens arriving such as Pillar https://pillarproject.io/ and Veritasium http://veritas.veritaseum.com/

I finally bit the bullet last November, did my research and moved some money out of gold into crypto. Couldn't be happier, already cashed out the amount of my initial investment which is back in gold and now just watching the profits grow

Money, in whatever form, is not supposed to be an investment!

It is just a mean to facilitate transactions.

Right now, transactions are certainly not made easier using crypto than using paper money, and it will take many years before it changes.

In the meantime, governments will interfere...they will create their own official cryptos, that will be the only ones accepted for most transactions, and offered some form of protection (guarantee...).

Thus, people will be led to give up private cryptos such as bitcoin for official ones.

The average Joe always trusts his government over anything else.

The objective will certainly not be to give people more freedom, but less!

With cryptos, governments will be in charge more than ever, and banks will be able to hide their unsolvency, while avoiding the risk of bank runs.

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

Fortunately, there are also countries which take a saner approach and counter all the FUD: http://www.trustnodes.com/2018/01/19/switzerland-become-crypto-nation-says-minister

lkn · January 21, 2018

5 hours ago, retoohs said:

The banks are supported by paper gold and if everyone that has bought paper gold went to cash in at the same time the banks would collapse because they don't have the money to back up the paper gold they have sold. Fiat currency is running on borrowed time. The other thing is the monetary system we are using is not designed for the digital age and will show more shortcomings in the near future

I think you are talking about fractional reserve banking; but cryptocurrency does not preclude fractional reserve banking, though if this was actually a problem, the central bank could just increase the reserve requirement.

As for the monetary system not being designed for the digital age, what do you mean? What flaws does it show? What advantages does cryptocurrencies bring (to the consumer)?

Have you tried paying with bitcoin? It’s cumbersome, slow, and expensive, to say the least.

Have you tried to pay with a contactless payment card? Your watch? Your NFC-enabled mobile phone? Just hold the thing near the payment terminal and *beep* payment done.

lkn · January 21, 2018

5 hours ago, retoohs said:

[…] Alt currency is here to stay and us of the older generation just have problems getting our head around it […]

I finally bit the bullet last November, did my research and moved some money out of gold into crypto. Couldn't be happier, already cashed out the amount of my initial investment which is back in gold and now just watching the profits grow

You say that us (“the older generation”) have problems getting our head around it, as if it was snapchat.

But it’s not like all the young people are actually paying with bitcoins, because it’s a terrible experience (even for the young kids)!

I read one guy sent a payment for an online purchase, it took four days for the payment to be confirmed, at which time the price of bitcoin had dropped, so the vendor refunded the payment, and our guy wasted 4 days and two transaction fees.

Even cryptocurrency conferences are not accepting bitcoins for tickets, and there was a bitcoin conference with a “cash online” sign for their t-shirts.

It is just one big <deleted> joke!

What us “old people” can’t get our head around is why can’t people see through it all?

Why do people keep hyping it as the next great thing since sliced bread?

Of course your last paragraph shows that: Because it has given (some people) great returns. But it’s a zero-sum game, and if the price keeps rising, it makes it even less likely that it will ever be used as a currency, as no-one wants to spend an appreciating asset.

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

1 minute ago, lkn said:

You say that us (“the older generation”) have problems getting our head around it, as if it was snapchat.

But it’s not like all the young people are actually paying with bitcoins, because it’s a terrible experience (even for the young kids)!

I read one guy sent a payment for an online purchase, it took four days for the payment to be confirmed, at which time the price of bitcoin had dropped, so the vendor refunded the payment, and our guy wasted 4 days and two transaction fees.

Even cryptocurrency conferences are not accepting bitcoins for tickets, and there was a bitcoin conference with a “cash online” sign for their t-shirts.

It is just one big <deleted> joke!

What us “old people” can’t get our head around is why can’t people see through it all?

Why do people keep hyping it as the next great thing since sliced bread?

Of course your last paragraph shows that: Because it has given (some people) great returns. But it’s a zero-sum game, and if the price keeps rising, it makes it even less likely that it will ever be used as a currency, as no-one wants to spend an appreciating asset.

What younger people seem to be better able to understand is that the issues you're mentioning are part of the process. Call it "growing pains" or what have you... They're simply hurdles along the way. Nothing but a technical problem that will sooner or later be solved. Don't forget that before the recent madness, Bitcoin was accepted more and more and I have personally used Bitcoin to pay for a number of things, ranging from coffee to electronics.

Crypto currencies still have a long way to go. You don't need to be using it as a transactional currency this very instant to "get it". Right now, many people are simply excited about the concept and are happy to be part of the movement.

Calling crypto currencies in general a "big joke" kinda says it all. Some of the brightest minds in the world are working in this space. But I guess they all better head the brain spawn of some bitter oldtimers and get out of this "big joke" :)

I honestly, honestly do not get the need some people have to piss all over something they don't understand... What is that? Is it's because some people are making some money? Missed opportunity? Is it the feeling the world is passing you by? The feeling you can't keep up with the ever changing world? I am genuinely curious here.

I don't clam to fully understand the entire crypto currency space. But I think it's exciting to something this big happening.... Can we not just let it be, enjoy the ride and see where it all ends?

lkn · January 21, 2018

1 hour ago, mjnaus said:

What younger people seem to be better able to understand is that the issues you're mentioning are part of the process. Call it "growing pains" or what have you... They're simply hurdles along the way. Nothing but a technical problem that will sooner or later be solved. Don't forget that before the recent madness, Bitcoin was accepted more and more and I have personally used Bitcoin to pay for a number of things, ranging from coffee to electronics.

Crypto currencies still have a long way to go. You don't need to be using it as a transactional currency this very instant to "get it". Right now, many people are simply excited about the concept and are happy to be part of the movement.

Calling crypto currencies in general a "big joke" kinda says it all. Some of the brightest minds in the world are working in this space. But I guess they all better head the brain spawn of some bitter oldtimers and get out of this "big joke" :)

I honestly, honestly do not get the need some people have to piss all over something they don't understand... What is that? Is it's because some people are making some money? Missed opportunity? Is it the feeling the world is passing you by? The feeling you can't keep up with the ever changing world? I am genuinely curious here.

I don't clam to fully understand the entire crypto currency space. But I think it's exciting to something this big happening.... Can we not just let it be, enjoy the ride and see where it all ends?

There are multiple things here.

Bitcoin as a currency does 7 transactions per second, burns a lot of kilowatts in doing so, has best-case confirmation times of 20-30 minutes but actual confirmation times up to several days, transaction fees are around $20 regardless of the amount, is susceptible to denial of service attacks, etc.

The absurd joke here is that this is being touted as going to disrupt our financial system and people have bought ledger entries in this “disruptive system” for up to $19,000, and when some of us question why a ledger entry is worth that much, we’re being told we are just too old to understand it.

Meanwhile us “old people” pay with contactless payment cards, our NFC-enabled watches, send money to our friends using our bank’s mobile app that makes the process smooth, instant, and free of charge (at least for my bank), etc.

But yeah, we do not understand technology; except, I personally understand blockchain technology perfectly fine, I understand why it does not scale, it is not just a technical hurdle to be worked out, the problem is that when running a trustless decentralized network, everyone needs a copy of the full ledger, but if we do 20,000+ transactions per second (like VISA) the ledger just grows too fast, so there is no way you could keep it on your phone, nor keep it updated.

You say some of the brightest minds are working on this; they might understand computer science, but the talks I have seen from cryptocurrency conferences are from people who seem to know very little about the financial system, the role of banks, legal contracts/disputes, or why consumers gravitate toward a product or service.

As for your last paragraph, about you not fully understanding the cryptocurrency space, but why not just let it play out? I engage in these threads because majority of people just see the hype and the price increases, so they think this will be the future and they should buy into it, making them do stupid things like take out a second mortgage to buy cryptos, gamble their college fund, or life savings (all true examples).

I sort of feel it’s my duty as a responsible citizen to counter all the misguided hype around cryptocurrencies!

We still have not had anyone give a clear explanation of 1) what problem does cryptocurrency solve, and 2) what value is being created to justify the price of bitcoin going up?

(regarding #1, OK, it solves the problem of transferring money without being subjected to regulation like KYC/AML, but that is not a problem that majority of people have, and it is still not a full solution, as you still need to move your money from the exchange to your bank account, where KYC/AML regulation is still in effect)

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

7 hours ago, retoohs said:

The banks are supported by paper gold and if everyone that has bought paper gold went to cash in at the same time the banks would collapse because they don't have the money to back up the paper gold they have sold. Fiat currency is running on borrowed time. The other thing is the monetary system we are using is not designed for the digital age and will show more shortcomings in the near future

I do not understand the idea of "buying paper gold".

Everything in the payments system is an IOU. It is all based on swapping of these IOU's. Banks do not sell money, they issue and exchange IOU's.

It is fundamental to the banking system that almost all of the customer deposits are supported and backed up by the loans that the banks have made. These loans are mortgages, personal loans, loans to companies involving millions and millions of people across the economy working away to pay them. You deposit account is backed by these loans, by the legal liability of the borrowers to repay them, not by physical cash held in a vault. The interest you receive comes from all the work that is being done by these borrowers. That is a pretty solid backing.

If you understand that, then it is not hard to see why banks are simply not able to redeem all the deposits in cash. They would have to start liquidating the loans. Before that happened the government/central bank would step in and provide sufficient liquidity or deposit guarantees to prevent the bank collapsing.

So, your 1,000 Baht in a deposit account at Bangkok Bank has the backing of the loans the bank has made, is supported by the legal infrastructure of Thailand to enforce payment of those debts, the deposit guarantee scheme and the Bank of Thailand, which is able to supply an infinite amount of liquidity to stem a banking run.

I would not worry too much about your 1,000 Baht.

What is backing a bitcoin? Who has the liability to pay anything for it? Who can you call on to give you anything for it?

Quote

Fiat currency is running on borrowed time.

No it isn't. It is running on IOU's.

Quote

The other thing is the monetary system we are using is not designed for the digital age and will show more shortcomings in the near future

Well, I have to agree it wasn't designed for the digital age, as it has evolved over a couple of thousand years. But I think it works extremely well on didigtal platforms, which have enhanced its utility immensely.

I can transfer funds instantly from an ATM, eBanking or my mobile phone to anywhere in Thailand instantly for a couple of Baht or even free. Even with all the hype there is no crapto that comes anywhere near the reliability, speed, convenience and cost of that.

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

5 minutes ago, lkn said:

You say some of the brightest minds are working on this; they might understand computer science, but the talks I have seen from cryptocurrency conferences are from people who seem to know very little about the financial system, the role of banks, legal contracts/disputes, or why consumers gravitate toward a product or service.

That is a very valid point. At some point, if the crypto stuff is to become useful, it has to meet the real world.

At the moment it is somewhere out in fantasy land.

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

7 minutes ago, lkn said:

I don't clam to fully understand the entire crypto currency space. But I think it's exciting to something this big happening.... Can we not just let it be, enjoy the ride and see where it all ends?

If it is that big, then you surely owe it to yourself to find out a bit more?

Or maybe you just like been taken for a ride????

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

4 minutes ago, lkn said:

1) what problem does cryptocurrency solve

Start by reading the original Bitcoin white paper. If that does not answer the question for you, I'd seriously advise you to stop engaging as these threads as you clearly lack the capabilities needed to grasp the idealogical concepts behind crypto currencies.

7 minutes ago, lkn said:

2) what value is being created to justify the price of bitcoin going up?

Since when does "value" need to be created to justify a price shooting up? All that's needed is simply an increased demand. Nothing fancy here buddy, just simply supply and demand economics. If this is so difficult to grasp, then, again, perhaps you should stop participating in these threads and get back to playing scrabble?

10 minutes ago, lkn said:

I sort of feel it’s my duty as a responsible citizen to counter all the misguided hype around cryptocurrencies!

That's mighty noble of you sir. Where would the world be without such noble, self-less deeds.

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

5 minutes ago, 12DrinkMore said:

That is a very valid point. At some point, if the crypto stuff is to become useful, it has to meet the real world.

Every single time someone buys or sells any crypto currency using fiat currency, said crypto currency is interacting with the "real world". They have these things called "exchanges", designed solely for the purpose of having crypto currencies interact with the "real world".

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

3 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Every single time someone buys or sells any crypto currency using fiat currency, said crypto currency is interacting with the "real world". They have these things called "exchanges", designed solely for the purpose of having crypto currencies interact with the "real world".

That is being disingenuous.

I was referring to the real world applications of the technology. There are a few trials going on, but nothing widespread. As many crapto-fans like to point out, bitcoin is too old to be useful, so now the development is on the next generations.

It is interesting to note that the exchanges are not increasing the amount of "fiat" money, affecting its purchasing power or increasing the total wealth in the economy. They are essentially just moving fiat from one person to another person, concentrating it in the pockets of a few lucky ones.

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

6 minutes ago, 12DrinkMore said:

If it is that big, then you surely owe it to yourself to find out a bit more?

Nobody, not the brightest financial minds, are able to explain exactly what's happening with crypto currencies. So I am definitely not alone in this. I'd rather admit there's a ton of things we're yet learn about rather than claiming I know it all and sound like a fool.

I know enough about it to see it as an exciting experiment. I knew enough about it to be intrigued by it and to start buying Bitcoin when the price was somewhere around $200 per coin.

What I do not know, is exactly what nobody knows... and that's how all of this is going to pan out. However, that does not entice me to piss all over it any chance I get. IMO, everything that challenges the status quo is a good thing.

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

2 minutes ago, 12DrinkMore said:

It is interesting to note that the exchanges are not increasing the amount of "fiat" money, affecting its purchasing power or increasing the total wealth in the economy. They are essentially just moving fiat from one person to another person, concentrating it in the pockets of a few lucky ones.

Hence, the name "exchange" :) Hardly interesting though, you're just pointing out the obvious

Blackheart1916 · January 21, 2018

On 20/01/2018 at 3:02 PM, DDbkh said:

The latest problem for these crypto currencies is that banks refuse to accept funds from cryptos because they rightly fear money laundering.

In Australia the banks launder cash. Commonwealth Bank being investigated for 53,000 suspicious transactions, can't recall how many $hundreds of millions at the moment. Swiss banks been doing it for centuries. Any other bright ideas?

Blackheart1916 · January 21, 2018

So you say you find it incomprehensible, then lecture on the subject. Another one that missed the boat. I will happily carry on making free money, thanks.

Blackheart1916 · January 21, 2018

23 hours ago, MrPatrickThai said:

I bet there are many who bought at the low and are now laughing.

I even did a bit of day trading as the price was so good at it's low a few days ago, seeing 30-60% increases in ONE DAY!.

I did the same with ripple for a day last week, selling above AU$2.00 then buying back at around AU$1.40, did that a couple of times increased my holding nicely.

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

19 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Hence, the name "exchange" :) Hardly interesting though, you're just pointing out the obvious

It is not obvious to a lot of people, who think there is "free" money to be had.

lkn · January 21, 2018

27 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Start by reading the original Bitcoin white paper. If that does not answer the question for you, I'd seriously advise you to stop engaging as these threads as you clearly lack the capabilities needed to grasp the idealogical concepts behind crypto currencies.

Since when does "value" need to be created to justify a price shooting up? All that's needed is simply an increased demand. Nothing fancy here buddy, just simply supply and demand economics. If this is so difficult to grasp, then, again, perhaps you should stop participating in these threads and get back to playing scrabble?

For my first question, you are unable to articulate what problem is being solved by bitcoin, and yet you advice me to stop contributing to this thread?

For my second question, just throwing out “demand justifies the price” seems a bit ignorant to me.

What is causing this demand? Underlying value being created? Nope, and that is cause for concern!

“The amount of new bitcoins created each day is worth approximately $18 million. Miners need to sell most of these coins to cover their utility costs. This means that $18 million of new money needs to enter the markets daily just to maintain current prices. Given that $400 million of tethers has been issued over the past four days, and yet the price of BTC has remained sluggish, this is alarming. If it wasn’t for tether’s torrent of newly created cash, this week’s dip would have cut deeper still.”

— https://news.bitcoin.com/tether-printing-press-in-high-gear-issuing-400-million-in-four-days/

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

26 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

IMO, everything that challenges the status quo is a good thing.

And presumably anybody who challenges the assumptions of the crapto-fans is "pi55ing on them" and a bad thing?

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

1 minute ago, lkn said:

For my first question, you are unable to articulate what problem is being solved by bitcoin, and yet you advice me to stop contributing to this thread?

Just because I choose not to educate you on the matter does not mean I am incapable to. I gave you a nudge in the right direction... I can even provide you with the link if doing a quick Google search is too much to ask: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

3 minutes ago, 12DrinkMore said:

And presumably anybody who challenges the assumptions of the crapto-fans is "pi55ing on them" and a bad thing?

Absolutely not. If you wouldn't be "challenging" the crypto currency assumptions, we wouldn't be having this wonderful, lively discussion would we?

12DrinkMore · January 21, 2018

11 minutes ago, lkn said:

For my first question, you are unable to articulate what problem is being solved by bitcoin, and yet you advice me to stop contributing to this thread?

For my second question, just throwing out “demand justifies the price” seems a bit ignorant to me.

What is causing this demand? Underlying value being created? Nope, and that is cause for concern!

“The amount of new bitcoins created each day is worth approximately $18 million. Miners need to sell most of these coins to cover their utility costs. This means that $18 million of new money needs to enter the markets daily just to maintain current prices. Given that $400 million of tethers has been issued over the past four days, and yet the price of BTC has remained sluggish, this is alarming. If it wasn’t for tether’s torrent of newly created cash, this week’s dip would have cut deeper still.”

— https://news.bitcoin.com/tether-printing-press-in-high-gear-issuing-400-million-in-four-days/

Another quote from that article.

Quote

In the short-term, the issuance of tethers serves as a form of quantitative easing that keeps the markets ticking over, even amidst negative news and regulatory uncertainty. As one commenter pointed out, “Tethers aren’t really ‘backed’ by USD fiat, but rather by confidence in Bitfinex itself.

And I thought that this was EXACTLY one of the issues that craptos were meant to fix????

QE for craptos.

And the "no requirement to trust third parties" issue????

lkn · January 21, 2018

26 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Just because I choose not to educate you on the matter does not mean I am incapable to. I gave you a nudge in the right direction... I can even provide you with the link if doing a quick Google search is too much to ask: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Make your own argument or STFÜ!

The bitcoin white paper does not explain what problem bitcoin currently solves.

It explains what the *intention* was: non-reversible casual online payments for non-reversible services that could be performed without a central trust authority to keep fees minimal, so for example to allow New York Times to charge me 1¢ per page load.

Bitcoin has *not* solved that problem!

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

17 minutes ago, lkn said:

Make your own argument or <deleted>!

No need to get your panties in a bunch buddy. Take a deep breath and relax...

I don't need to make my own argument, why should I? I am not the creator of Bitcoin. Although I agree with the premises, they're not mine.

17 minutes ago, lkn said:

Bitcoin has *not* solved that problem!

I don't think anybody is stating it has, my friend. But should we discard the entire effort, simply because we're not there yet? Either you agree or disagree with the ideology behind Bitcoin. If you don't think it's a problem worth solving, then yeah... I guess Bitcoin does not make sense for you. However, if you agree that the problems Bitcoin, and other crypto currencies, are trying to tackle are worthy of the pursuit, than you'll need to accept that we haven't reached the end station just yet and it will take some time to get there.

IMO is a cause worth pursuing. So what if it hasn't solved it yet. Good things take time... Rome wasn't build in a day and all that. Still no reason to get all upset over I'd say. If Bitcoin, or any other crypto coin for that matter, can indeed solve the problem, great! Beers all around! And none of them are able to work out the obstacles and fail to solve the problem, so be it. Again, still no matter to get all worked up over...

lkn · January 21, 2018

34 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Again, still no matter to get all worked up over...

Let’s take a step back here, I asked “what problem does cryptocurrency solve” to which you implied that I failed to grasp it, then that it was not your job to educate me.

Glad that we ended up agreeing that it doesn’t actually solve any problems.

mjnaus · January 21, 2018

1 minute ago, lkn said:

Glad that we ended up agreeing that it doesn’t actually solve any problems.

Oh yeah, in it's current form Bitcoin is definitely not solving the problems it was meant to solve. I think you won't find many people who disagree with that notion.

However does not imply it's a scam and we should abandon it. The current problems are of technical nature and therefor, can be solved. When that happens, I guess we can evaluate again whether Bitcoin is on it's way to solving the problems it was created to solve. Only time will tell.

Brunolem · January 21, 2018

1 hour ago, mjnaus said:

IMO, everything that challenges the status quo is a good thing.

Cryptos appear to challenge the status quo, but they don't, or rather they won't.

Right now, governments can observe a live rehearsal of a system they wish to see implemented in the future, yet of course by themselves, under their control.

Their interest is to let things play out, let the technology improve up to an acceptable level of efficiency...all this without having to spend a dime.

Then, they will jump in, brandishing the "law" and clean the house.

There is no way that governments are going to relinquish the monopoly of money.

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