Putin prepares major Kyiv energy strikes as winter loomsRussia is preparing a major campaign against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, with Vladimir Putin increasingly convinced that relentless missile attacks can force Ukraine towards defeat, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Analysts warn the Kremlin sees Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic-missile interceptors as a critical opportunity. Putin sees weakness in Ukraine’s air defences The shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles is leaving Ukraine increasingly vulnerable to Russian ballistic weapons. The systems are among the few capabilities able to intercept the missiles, giving Moscow a potential opening as winter approaches. ISW says Russia has shifted more of its defence production towards ballistic missiles, apparently seeking to exploit the gap. The Kremlin believes sustained strikes could damage Ukraine’s ability to withstand another winter of attacks. Kyiv’s energy network is now in the crosshairs According to the ISW assessment, Russia is reportedly planning a large-scale campaign against energy infrastructure in Kyiv in the coming weeks. The aim would be to disrupt efforts to strengthen the network while Ukraine struggles to replenish its missile defences. The strategy could put civilians under renewed pressure as temperatures fall. Repeated attacks on power infrastructure threaten electricity, heating and essential services at precisely the point when Ukraine’s energy system faces its greatest seasonal demands. Moscow’s battlefield theory is hardening The attacks fit what ISW describes as Putin’s theory of victory: maintain relentless pressure on Ukrainian forces while striking cities and infrastructure until Kyiv’s resources and the West’s willingness to continue supporting the war are exhausted. That calculation could also reduce Moscow’s incentive to negotiate. If the Kremlin believes its missiles can strike Ukrainian cities with limited risk of interception, it may see little reason to make concessions at the negotiating table. A huge barrage shows the danger Russia has already demonstrated the scale of firepower it can deploy. Ukrainian air defences reported shooting down 98 drones during a major overnight attack, while Russia also used Zircon, Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and other drones. The main targets included the Kyiv region and Zaporizhzhia. With winter approaching and interceptor stocks under pressure, Ukraine faces a race to strengthen its defences before Moscow launches the next wave. Russia prepares major strikes on Kyiv's energy infrastructure — ISW
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