Flip-flops Could Make Foreigners Flee

[george]

Flip-flops could make foreigners flee

But no fire sales foreseen in Phuket.

PHUKET: -- If the government continues to flip-flop on foreign investment regulations, a lot of foreign property investors will either move back home or to areas they are comfortable with, says Stephen O'Brien, a real estate veteran who is moving to Dubai after being in Bangkok and Phuket for several years.

Investors would prefer to be in countries where they can wake up one morning and not find that key legislation is being changed without public consultation, he said. ''I think that if you're going to spook the market and people are going to get too concerned about what's happening, they'll just go back to what they know.''

The investment shift is unlikely to be to other Southeast Asian countries, however. Mr O'Brien notes that Bali attracted a large inflow of foreign property buyers, many of whom stayed on after the first major bombing in October 2002 but pulled out after the second one in 2005.

''You're starting to see a very aggressive campaign in various Australian states urging people to stay at home and travel within their own country,'' he said.

Foreign property buyers could easily go elsewhere because they have the money and the willingness to invest but they don't want obstacles, he said.

''You put one obstacle in, okay, your lawyer can work around it, but when you put up a dozen obstacles it just becomes impossible to manoeuvre your way to the finishing line.''

Mr O'Brien believes that buyers of million-dollar villas in Phuket have probably been talking to their lawyers and financial advisers in their home countries, and they could be warning their clients to be cautious.

''I know people here _ farangs and expats who have money, just basically savings money, and they're scared what's going to happen to it. Will the government change its mind and suddenly all foreign accounts in the banks are frozen?

''That's bizarre thinking but people are afraid of that. That's the extreme but that's what people are thinking because it's so easy now to change things _ what's going to happen in the next five years?''

Despite these fears, Mr O'Brien does not see panic gripping the resort property market, barring further surprises or flip-flops from the military-installed government.

''Are there going to be bargains in the market? I don't think so. We were all expecting the bargain-hunters to come in for fire sales after the tsunami but in fact the reverse happened _ prices increased.''

Mr O'Brien, who headed the Phuket office of the agency Knight Frank for four years, noted that while discounting has not taken place in Phuket over the last three to four months, there has been a slowdown. However, this could be because there are now more real estate agents on the island.

What is upsetting the market is that in other countries, major amendments to key legislation such as the Foreign Business Act would normally be subject to a lengthy public consultation process and not be implemented overnight.

''In all honesty I think the days of owning freehold villas, no matter whether this corrects itself when the next government comes in and opens [the market] up again, I just think those days are gone,'' he said.

''We've seen over the last six months that the goalposts can move and I think that's going to throw an incredible amount of foreign business out of the door.''

Mr O'Brien also laments the fact that there is no strong advocate for real-estate agents in Thailand. ''We needed a strong body to actually lobby the government from time to time about these changes and what the implications are; we never saw that.''

A comparison can be drawn with Dubai where Mr O'Brien is now headed. The government there offers an easy step-by-step process for foreigners to invest with a clear objective of turning the Emirate into the gateway of the Middle East, a place to do business, holiday and retire.

''They actually encourage foreign investment, regardless of whether you are a foreigner living in Iran, America, Australia or London. If you actually buy property you get residency, there are no questions asked. You can actually get financing, it's easy to get, you can come and go, you can get freehold, you can get leasehold, so it's a very easy way. It's what people are comfortable with and accustomed to.

''What we're going through at the moment, all this uncertainty in the way foreigners can invest from massive corporations _ the Coca-Colas of the world _ to the moms and dads. And then you have the structure _ no financing available in this market. You have the visa stage _ even that is becoming very complex and difficult. There are just so many obstacles in the way. It just becomes very cumbersome to invest.''

Mr O'Brien pointed to the Australian model for handling foreign real estate investment. The foreign investment review board is quite rigorous and the approval process is lengthy, and the foreigner buying has to demonstrate intentions for buying parcels of land. But the rules are clear and unambiguous nonetheless.

''It was basically aimed at stopping the Japanese who back in the early 1990s were just buying up most of Australia,'' he explained. ''So there are models that can actually simplify and welcome foreign investment in the country.''

However, despite these issues Mr O'Brien does expect the resort market to pick up once there is a bit more clarity about investing in Thailand.

''Typically there will be a slowdown until there is a clear policy direction and then it will pick up again very quickly.''

--thailand-property-guide.com 2007-01-22

[farangsay]

Two things came into my mind when I read this

headline (you'll note I didn't quote the text 'cos

to tell you the absolute truth I didn't read it).

This foreigner would only flee if said flip-flop

was being wielded by a Thai person of the

fair sex with murder in her eyes screaming

something about a "butterfly".

What is the English literary term for phrases

where all the words start with the same letter ?

All clarification gratefully received.

[PeaceBlondie]

Alliteration. Farangsay, are you thinking of the term "flim-flam"? Or perhaps "free-fall"?

The article is about a real estate salesman who spent 4 years in Phuket and is leaving for Dubai, citing all kinds of reasons the market should fall very far. Being a salesman, he then concludes that of course, prices would never fall.

[farangsay]

Alliteration. Farangsay, are you thinking of the term "flim-flam"? Or perhaps "free-fall"?

The article is about a real estate salesman who spent 4 years in Phuket and is leaving for Dubai, citing all kinds of reasons the market should fall very far. Being a salesman, he then concludes that of course, prices would never fall.

Thank you PB for that.

Just had a vague memory there might have been a term.

(Ain't it sad when all your memories are vague?)

Anyway your explanation sounds about right.

Appreciate your precis of the text (it was a bit long

for someone with a 3 second attention span).

Of course the shyster is right. Prices NEVER fall.

That's just my lower jaw when I look at the tag

that does that.

[johnnyk]

Ahh, Dubai pearl of the gulf, an island of stability in a secure corner of the world.

What will happen to the property and investment market there if the infantile bushbaby throws an ICBM into Iran?

Thailand will look very very attractive.

Edited January 22, 2007 by johnnyk

[cdnvic]

What will happen to the property and investment market there if the infantile bushbaby throws an ICBM into Iran?

Outside the realm of Hollywood and the barstool pundit, this sort of thing is not going to happen.

[farangsay]

Ahh, Dubai pearl of the gulf, an island of stability in a secure corner of the world.

What will happen to the property and investment market there if the infantile bushbaby throws an ICBM into Iran?

Thailand will look very very attractive.

Jeez , there's something in the air tonight.

I am stopping breathing now!

[Nignoy]

Flip-flops could make foreigners flee

But no fire sales foreseen in Phuket.

PHUKET: -- If the government continues to flip-flop on foreign investment regulations, a lot of foreign property investors will either move back home or to areas they are comfortable with, says Stephen O'Brien, a real estate veteran who is moving to Dubai after being in Bangkok and Phuket for several years.

Investors would prefer to be in countries where they can wake up one morning and not find that key legislation is being changed without public consultation, he said. ''I think that if you're going to spook the market and people are going to get too concerned about what's happening, they'll just go back to what they know.''

The investment shift is unlikely to be to other Southeast Asian countries, however. Mr O'Brien notes that Bali attracted a large inflow of foreign property buyers, many of whom stayed on after the first major bombing in October 2002 but pulled out after the second one in 2005.

''You're starting to see a very aggressive campaign in various Australian states urging people to stay at home and travel within their own country,'' he said.

Foreign property buyers could easily go elsewhere because they have the money and the willingness to invest but they don't want obstacles, he said.

''You put one obstacle in, okay, your lawyer can work around it, but when you put up a dozen obstacles it just becomes impossible to manoeuvre your way to the finishing line.''

Mr O'Brien believes that buyers of million-dollar villas in Phuket have probably been talking to their lawyers and financial advisers in their home countries, and they could be warning their clients to be cautious.

''I know people here _ farangs and expats who have money, just basically savings money, and they're scared what's going to happen to it. Will the government change its mind and suddenly all foreign accounts in the banks are frozen?

''That's bizarre thinking but people are afraid of that. That's the extreme but that's what people are thinking because it's so easy now to change things _ what's going to happen in the next five years?''

Despite these fears, Mr O'Brien does not see panic gripping the resort property market, barring further surprises or flip-flops from the military-installed government.

''Are there going to be bargains in the market? I don't think so. We were all expecting the bargain-hunters to come in for fire sales after the tsunami but in fact the reverse happened _ prices increased.''

Mr O'Brien, who headed the Phuket office of the agency Knight Frank for four years, noted that while discounting has not taken place in Phuket over the last three to four months, there has been a slowdown. However, this could be because there are now more real estate agents on the island.

What is upsetting the market is that in other countries, major amendments to key legislation such as the Foreign Business Act would normally be subject to a lengthy public consultation process and not be implemented overnight.

''In all honesty I think the days of owning freehold villas, no matter whether this corrects itself when the next government comes in and opens [the market] up again, I just think those days are gone,'' he said.

''We've seen over the last six months that the goalposts can move and I think that's going to throw an incredible amount of foreign business out of the door.''

Mr O'Brien also laments the fact that there is no strong advocate for real-estate agents in Thailand. ''We needed a strong body to actually lobby the government from time to time about these changes and what the implications are; we never saw that.''

A comparison can be drawn with Dubai where Mr O'Brien is now headed. The government there offers an easy step-by-step process for foreigners to invest with a clear objective of turning the Emirate into the gateway of the Middle East, a place to do business, holiday and retire.

''They actually encourage foreign investment, regardless of whether you are a foreigner living in Iran, America, Australia or London. If you actually buy property you get residency, there are no questions asked. You can actually get financing, it's easy to get, you can come and go, you can get freehold, you can get leasehold, so it's a very easy way. It's what people are comfortable with and accustomed to.

''What we're going through at the moment, all this uncertainty in the way foreigners can invest from massive corporations _ the Coca-Colas of the world _ to the moms and dads. And then you have the structure _ no financing available in this market. You have the visa stage _ even that is becoming very complex and difficult. There are just so many obstacles in the way. It just becomes very cumbersome to invest.''

Mr O'Brien pointed to the Australian model for handling foreign real estate investment. The foreign investment review board is quite rigorous and the approval process is lengthy, and the foreigner buying has to demonstrate intentions for buying parcels of land. But the rules are clear and unambiguous nonetheless.

''It was basically aimed at stopping the Japanese who back in the early 1990s were just buying up most of Australia,'' he explained. ''So there are models that can actually simplify and welcome foreign investment in the country.''

However, despite these issues Mr O'Brien does expect the resort market to pick up once there is a bit more clarity about investing in Thailand.

''Typically there will be a slowdown until there is a clear policy direction and then it will pick up again very quickly.''

--thailand-property-guide.com 2007-01-22

What a load of Cobblers , property prices and values all over the world are on the rise even in some of the war devastated areas the prices are going through the roof,even in the Anal Centre of Outback Queensland prices are going through the roof, and in downtown wigan and warrington house prices have doubled in the last 5 years,bit of a flat in the thai property curve at the moment, but it will continue to riseas the new year goes on Nignoy

[relayer]

...What will happen to the property and investment market there if the infantile bushbaby throws an ICBM into Iran?...

No need to wait for that. Dubai is already in the DU contamination zone (1000 mi radius of both Kabul and Baghdad). In fact, it is situated on an overlap:

If things 'heat up' in Iran, expect the situation to only get worse...

(DU = depleted uranium)

[johnnyk]

What will happen to the property and investment market there if the infantile bushbaby throws an ICBM into Iran?

Outside the realm of Hollywood and the barstool pundit, this sort of thing is not going to happen.

You're probably right, I guess I'll just relax. There are plenty of reasons to trust his good judgement.

[johnh101]

Perhaps off topic but WTH....

here's a good script for a hollywood movie....

There is a hugh fault line lies offshore Iran. Over the last 15 - 20 years this fault line has been responsible for many earthquakes and huge destruction in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Dubai is directly opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf.

If this fault line where to go 'big time' theoretically it could produce a huge (or mabye just very large) Tsunami which would sweep across the gulf in probably less than one hour.

Most of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Bahrain, Sharjah, even Kuwait and parts of Saudi are barely (if ?) above sea level..................

HHHMMmmmm!

[Dupont]

Perhaps off topic but WTH....

here's a good script for a hollywood movie....

There is a hugh fault line lies offshore Iran. Over the last 15 - 20 years this fault line has been responsible for many earthquakes and huge destruction in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Dubai is directly opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf.

If this fault line where to go 'big time' theoretically it could produce a huge (or mabye just very large) Tsunami which would sweep across the gulf in probably less than one hour.

Most of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Bahrain, Sharjah, even Kuwait and parts of Saudi are barely (if ?) above sea level..................

HHHMMmmmm!

If a huge Tsunami were to continue up to the Russian border, it may finally bring peace to the region.

Back on Topic though,

It's only the feeble minded that will flee. Short term investors etc. Most of us small business owners have travelled and lived a lot in Asia and are used to it.

Mad as the constant Poilicy changes are, its the same as it ever was and this is, by and large, priced into the market. This is why Thailand is not a first world nation and why everything is cheap here.

Any serious stability and relaxation of ownership laws etc. would price many of us out of the country. Enjoy it as it is, at least we can afford to live here and this semi chaotic system keeps it this way.

[PhilHarries]

Gadzooks Batman! Fleeing foreigners fear flappin' flip flops!

Another bluddy estate agent guffing off without really saying anything. Property anywhere in the world is still the best investment. In many countries, Thailand included, there's always the risk of a loony government grabbing all foreign investments but I would say it is a very low grade risk in LOS.

On conspiracy theories and Hollywood plots.

In the middle of one night Iran totally demolishes it's nuclear facilities with a series of very spectaculr explosions. Following day it screams attack by either Israel or USA or both, all other Arab nations join in. Only people who have satellite surveillance is USA, who nobody believes, and Russia and China who, with vested interests, claim to have seen nothing. Pakistan throws it's lot in with the Arab states as does Indonesia. World markets get big time jitters and the dollar plunges forcing Wall St to suspend trading. In the US a bunch of generals decide enough is enough and stage a bloodless and hugely popular coup to remove Dubbya and his cronies from power.

Mr Spielberg, please remember where you read this plot first.