Most Thais Think Economy Bad, Getting Worse

[KiwiKiwi]

56 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

Great post.

 

I am sure Thailand economy is doing just fine, but this does not reflected on average people unless you are a gangster.

 

I think my wife is grossly underpaid at 45k a month working for one of the biggest companies in Thailand.

 

Nothing sickens me more than some old fatso here lecturing about needs and wants. Why shouldn't the average Thai who bothered to get education expect to have a condo/house/car? Should the old fatso here who won the birth lottery of being born in some no name Western country give up his already bloated Western pension that he's not even spending in his own country? Oh, but I worked hard for it is old fatso reply. So are Thais. Most middle class Thais that take the bus every day which old fatso is unable to see from his high horse On Nutterz condo are also working very hard. Sorry, but even being a cashier in this country at 7/11 is a very tiring job. Just look at the amount of people they have to serve every day. Why should they be only paid 300 bucks a month in the city that costs as much as Toronto to purchase a condo.

 

 

I don't recognise the situation you are describing. I also think you have a jaundiced view of ex-pats, for what reason I could guess at but won't - because guesses and personal prejudices don't help.

 

The average Thai is lazy and under-intelligent. So far as I can see, these are demonstrable facts, born of government statistics and personal experience. They engage in the behaviour that life has taught them works to their advantage. In Thailand, what works is brown-nosing, buying presents or giving gifts or brown envelopes and seeking patronage, it is not necessarily effort, experience or talent. I suggest it is this culture that you should attack rather than the opinions of people you don't know and apparently can only sneer at.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by KiwiKiwi

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

If debt is unsustainable, leaves no money for consumer spending, and growth and increased income is concentrated in the hands of a very small, already very rich (sufficiently so?) section of the population is that not going to affect the economy? 

 

With the usual caveat that I am no financial expert...

 

At some point, theoretically, the debt bubble has to burst. But look at how many countries have massive debts. So debt isn't seen as the very real threat that it should be, because politically it would be too difficult to tackle and those making very very big profits from it prefer to keep the levels high.

 

If some power suddenly said all debt must be settled today, just think how many countries, organizations and individuals would be immediately bankrupt. So that won't happen. But the poor, working class, middle class can all be trapped with increasing debt burdens. But some might think that's a good way of controlling them.

[LomSak27]

19 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Where you hear those complaints?  Some of the 1000 bars or massage shops in Pattaya?  "Slow, no customer"...

I am hearing/seeing just the opposite at many businesses.  Growth is at a five year high, people are coming here in droves, and the economy is doing well

Upper class kids whose parents run business's. Most are going/ or go  to Thammasat, Chula or Chiang Mai U. Their complaint is      "My future is ruined"

The lower classes just say it's tough. I see people moving out because they lost a job can't afford the rent.

Have you missed this  or  just spouting the party line      The G friend is up with older Bro's family this week - I think job problems although nothing is said.  Sign of the Times 

Edited June 7, 2018 by LomSak27

[KiwiKiwi]

9 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

We are thinking too much. The survey said it all. Economy getting worse for the man on the streets not the fat cats. If the economy is doing well for all, there will be no protests for government to intervene and provide assistance. Common sense prevail that the minimum wage is just not enough to meet basic needs. 

 

To that extent, the junta government is doing exactly what it was put up to do, while simultaneously kidding the electorate of wannabes that they;re doing something useful for the man in the street. In my opinion, they aren't and were never going to. They are doing what they were told to do; everything else is just propaganda.

[mike324]

Business is bad because cost of goods are too high due to import taxes. Thais pay on average 2-3 times for the same things in the West, yet their salary is very low. On top of that, education is also holding them back from earning higher salaries. 

[Media1]

When the coup kicked in the generals played the figures. WELL planned opp..Funneling cash overseas..The baht was raised and Thai business was suppressed. They have destroyed farang high rollers and imported Chinese scabs for 7 eleven and government taxes. THEY destroyed Thailand almost overnight.

[fullcave]

19 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

One thing about the economy I know for sure, is that inflation is alot higher than the goons in charge are willing to admit.

2

They just started printing a shitload of new money (out of then air) it's hard not to notice the new bills floating around everywhere while the old bills are still in circulation. That is by definition inflation.  

[mogandave]

2 minutes ago, mike324 said:

Business is bad because cost of goods are too high due to import taxes. Thais pay on average 2-3 times for the same things in the West, yet their salary is very low. On top of that, education is also holding them back from earning higher salaries. 

 

What imports ar Thais buying that cost 2-3 times as much as in the West?

 

besides high-end cars of course.

[fullcave]

Just now, mogandave said:

 

What imports ar Thais buying that cost 2-3 times as much as in the West?

 

besides high-end cars of course.

Alcohol and cigarettes? Just a guess. 

[Nowisee]

It seems to be economic survey of the thai people versus the government reports… hmm.

 

They mention the political situation and inequality and low wages.

Their past practices are catching up to them.

 

One aspect of a countries disparity between how the people feel and what the govt reports is corruption.

Many countries in SEA have been raped by corrupt leadership on down.

 

All this has some impact on me economically, but more so socially, environmentally and of quality of life.     

 

Eventually other places with a much higher quality of life, value and lower risk start looking better for everyone.   

 

[mogandave]

Just now, fullcave said:

They just started printing a shitload of new money (out of then air) it's hard not to notice the new bills floating around everywhere while the old bills are still in circulation. That is by definition inflation.  

How do you know the new currency is replacing old currency that has been taken out of circulation?

[IamNoone88]

The Unhappiness factor will always tip an election .... perceived or real.

[mogandave]

2 minutes ago, fullcave said:

Alcohol and cigarettes? Just a guess. 

 

Not. Lot of middle class Thais drinking top-shelf boozes and smoking imported butts. 

 

90% of the Thai women don’t drink or smoke.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

One thing about the economy I know for sure, is that inflation is alot higher than the goons in charge are willing to admit. And also, nearly all of the tourist establishments I talk to are complaining. Most say business is nothing like it used to be.

It's not very high though. Poor Thais have seen little rise in food prices in decades. The food I eat has increased about 15 baht since the early 90s. Pattaya baht bus has been 10 baht for decades, a Thai can rent a room for about 2,000 a month. I could also, but I wouldn't like to live in one.

What has increased is trying to live a western life style, where it's as high as the customers will be prepared to pay to live as though they were back home ( which raises a few questions ). The Islands have definitely increased in prices, but that's down to the invasion of the flashpackers and the subsequent disappearance of cheap places to stay on the beach, as the greedies cash in.

The most obvious change is the invasion of the Chinese horde. They have distorted the accommodation market and destroyed the environment, among other sins.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 minutes ago, fullcave said:

They just started printing a shitload of new money (out of then air) it's hard not to notice the new bills floating around everywhere while the old bills are still in circulation. That is by definition inflation.  

LOL, LOL, LOL.

Have a look at the picture on the new notes.

Old notes are constantly being removed as they become old and damaged. That happens in every country that uses paper/plastic currency.

[Media1]

20 hours ago, BobBKK said:

It's true most Thais are deeply unhappy with prices, business and all that jazz but this is what you get when you try to run things like an Army camp.

THEY are being suppressed so the coup Deville crew can prosper 

[simoh1490]

18 minutes ago, fullcave said:

They just started printing a shitload of new money (out of then air) it's hard not to notice the new bills floating around everywhere while the old bills are still in circulation. That is by definition inflation.  

Ummm, yes, they have started printing new bills, that's because we have a new king and his face appears on Thai currency! That's nothing whatsoever to do though with what you think that's about.

[Peterw42]

22 minutes ago, Media1 said:

The baht was raised and Thai business was suppressed.

The value of the baht doesn't have much impact on Thai business unless they import/export. 1 Thai baht equals 1 Thai baht inside thailand. The value of a currency is because of the demand for a currency, lots of people want Thai baht to buy cars, hard drives or come here on holidays, the baht goes up.

[Eric Loh]

40 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

At some point, theoretically, the debt bubble has to burst. But look at how many countries have massive debts. So debt isn't seen as the very real threat that it should be, because politically it would be too difficult to tackle and those making very very big profits from it prefer to keep the levels high.

 

If some power suddenly said all debt must be settled today, just think how many countries, organizations and individuals would be immediately bankrupt. So that won't happen. But the poor, working class, middle class can all be trapped with increasing debt burdens. But some might think that's a good way of controlling them.

Even though Thailand debt to GDP over the years has been managed reasonably well, there are few concerns in my opinion.

 

The biggest concern is that we will be running a budget deficit for next few years and technically will not able to pay and service the debt. The GDP growth over the years have also been uninspiring under junta rule. Thailand need an elected government to bring in more investments local and abroad. Lastly government spending will increase especially the aging population needs and the military lavish, increasing and wasteful spending seem unabated. 

[spidermike007]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's not very high though. Poor Thais have seen little rise in food prices in decades. The food I eat has increased about 15 baht since the early 90s. Pattaya baht bus has been 10 baht for decades, a Thai can rent a room for about 2,000 a month. I could also, but I wouldn't like to live in one.

What has increased is trying to live a western life style, where it's as high as the customers will be prepared to pay to live as though they were back home ( which raises a few questions ). The Islands have definitely increased in prices, but that's down to the invasion of the flashpackers and the subsequent disappearance of cheap places to stay on the beach, as the greedies cash in.

The most obvious change is the invasion of the Chinese horde. They have distorted the accommodation market and destroyed the environment, among other sins.

I do not buy your theory for a nanosecond. Just look at some of the staples we eat. Watermelon has gone from 12 baht per kilo, to between 20 and 25 per kilo in the past 10 years. Pomelo has gone from 25-30 baht each, to 60-80 baht each. Oranges have skyrocketed to the point where most of us do not buy them anymore. Meat, seafood, bread, butter, milk, rice, nearly all vegetables, beer, and nearly anything else I can think of has gone up significantly. I think the real inflation rate is at least 10% annually. I am not interested in the "basket of goods" fiction that the government uses to try to convince us of the lie, that inflation is low. Just look around you. 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Even though Thailand debt to GDP over the years has been managed reasonably well, there are few concerns in my opinion.

 

The biggest concern is that we will be running a budget deficit for next few years and technically will not able to pay and service the debt. The GDP growth over the years have also been uninspiring under junta rule. Thailand need an elected government to bring in more investments local and abroad. Lastly government spending will increase especially the aging population needs and the military lavish, increasing and wasteful spending seem unabated. 

Once again Eric the budget deficit issue is a non-issue, it's always been historically very low and by comparison to other countries, it is still very low. The government signalled a desire to increase the deficit well in advance and most observers thought it was a sensible move. Financing the deficit has never been a problem here, government bond sales are always oversubscribed.

[GarryP]

39 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

What imports ar Thais buying that cost 2-3 times as much as in the West?

 

besides high-end cars of course.

Even low end cars are way more expensive than in the west. 

[simoh1490]

9 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I do not buy your theory for a nanosecond. Just look at some of the staples we eat. Watermelon has gone from 12 baht per kilo, to between 20 and 25 per kilo in the past 10 years. Pomelo has gone from 25-30 baht each, to 60-80 baht each. Oranges have skyrocketed to the point where most of us do not buy them anymore. Meat, seafood, bread, butter, milk, rice, nearly all vegetables, beer, and nearly anything else I can think of has gone up significantly. I think the real inflation rate is at least 10% annually. I am not interested in the "basket of goods" fiction that the government uses to try to convince us of the lie, that inflation is low. Just look around you. 

I'm unsure, the price of chicken has remained flat for several years, as has the price of milk. Rice increased because of supply problems and now the price is falling, pork prices appear flat also. Watermelon doubling from 12 to 24 baht over 10 years suggests the price was probably too low at the outset, the other items I don't know but certainly not even close to 10% overall..

Edited June 7, 2018 by simoh1490

[Rimmer]

A most derogatory and probably libelous post has been removed

[Brunolem]

20 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

I can see @spidermike007 point, Its often hard to believe the official inflation figures when you see groceries and things going up, I dont watch prices to much but even I notice some significant price rises for the once a week groceries at the supermarket or basic Thai meal at the local restaurant. Things dont go up by 2-3%, its often 20-30%.. I can find 6-8 things, that I know of, at 7/11, that have gone from say 20 baht to 30 baht.

Our standard weekly shop use to cost 2,000 baht, its now 2,500.

If you sit and watch grass growing for a couple of hours, you will most probably come up with the conclusion that grass is NOT growing.

The same is true with inflation.

Short term measurements are meaningless.

On the other hand, long term comparisons show a lot.

From, say, 2005 to now, that is over a time span of 13 years, prices have on average doubled in Thailand.

You don't double prices over 13 years with a compounded inflation rate of 1%.

For that you need an average inflation rate of 5.5% per year, which is probably closer to reality.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

I do not buy your theory for a nanosecond. Just look at some of the staples we eat. Watermelon has gone from 12 baht per kilo, to between 20 and 25 per kilo in the past 10 years. Pomelo has gone from 25-30 baht each, to 60-80 baht each. Oranges have skyrocketed to the point where most of us do not buy them anymore. Meat, seafood, bread, butter, milk, rice, nearly all vegetables, beer, and nearly anything else I can think of has gone up significantly. I think the real inflation rate is at least 10% annually. I am not interested in the "basket of goods" fiction that the government uses to try to convince us of the lie, that inflation is low. Just look around you. 

The staples in LOS are rice, vegetables, native Thai fruit, with a small amount of seafood and chicken/ pork. The examples you give are not staples.

I go by what I have to pay. when the same food I ate in early 90s has only increased by 15 baht, that is not a large increase. Pattaya baht bus increase 0%.

Last time I stayed in Pattaya, rooms still cost 400 to 600 for reasonable place. A small increase in 30 years.

If everyone didn't buy food that is unreasonably expensive the price will come down. No one is forcing you to buy watermelons or Pomelos.

People eat far too much meat which causes cancer and is generally bad for us in excessive amounts. Plus it's against Buddhism. Chicken and pork are still cheap. If one doesn't want to pay a lot for meat, eat those instead of beef and lamb.

Does anyone think prices haven't increased in every country? Does no one remember the 1980s?

Seafood is contaminated by sea pollution and is being overexploited. people should eat less of it. Wheat and dairy are bad for us- Thais didn't normally get fat before they became easily available.

Before Thais became more affluent, the average person ate a much healthier diet, and only rich people became obese.

Beer: alcohol is one of the worst commonly available drugs, causing disease, violence and poverty. Anything that reduces use of it in any form is welcome, IMO.

[Eric Loh]

11 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Once again Eric the budget deficit issue is a non-issue, it's always been historically very low and by comparison to other countries, it is still very low. The government signalled a desire to increase the deficit well in advance and most observers thought it was a sensible move. Financing the deficit has never been a problem here, government bond sales are always oversubscribed.

Bond is a debt. Budget deficit is a key issue in paying debt. Simply put, where the extra cash to pay debt. 

[brucec64]

20 hours ago, jayboy said:

You are talking rubbish and the one thing you claim to know for sure you do in fact not know.Inflation is only slightly higher at just over 1%, slightly more than the expected rate of about 0.85%.The information on which this is based is not manipulated by what you ignorantly call "goons".In fact Thailand has a longstanding history of producing reliable and excellent economic and financial data and is well served by able officials in the responsible ministries and the Bank of Thailand.Naturally in the basket of items used to track inflation some items will increase more than others.You mention the "tourist industry", a euphemism no doubt for bars and similar places frequented by sex tourists and resident "expats".If the girls and boys are hiking their prices it doesn't really matter and in any case is irrelevant to the national inflation position. 

 

"financial data and is well served by able officials in the responsible ministries and the Bank of Thailand."

 

This was by far my favourite line of the post. Comedy gold...

[dave moir]

20 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Where you hear those complaints?  Some of the 1000 bars or massage shops in Pattaya?  "Slow, no customer"...

I am hearing/seeing just the opposite at many businesses.  Growth is at a five year high, people are coming here in droves, and the economy is doing well.

Most Thais have no education on economics and would have no clue what the "economy" is.  But, people love to wallow in negativity and sadness for themselves in some odd way it makes them feel empowered.

 

Well you're seeing more than me!!! I go Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Hua Hin and Bangkok quite a bit and no not for go go bars or massage parlour!!! All I see are empty restaurants, shops and hotels with hardly any customer and every one you speak to says the Same thing business quiet economy poor!

[thaibeachlovers]

15 minutes ago, GarryP said:

Even low end cars are way more expensive than in the west. 

The worst thing that has happened to LOS in the time I have been visiting is the increase in cars that has exceeded the capacity of the roads to accommodate. Singapore has had to take drastic methods to stabilise car numbers, and most Thai towns/ cities are just as bad as Singapore, but nothing is done to stop the increase of cars on the road.

Anything that stops people in towns/ cities buying cars is a good thing.

Edited June 7, 2018 by thaibeachlovers