Thai July headline inflation to pick up; June factory output growth to ease - Reuters poll

 

FILE PHOTO: A girl walks past a Skytrain (Bangkok Mass Transit System) construction site in Bangkok,Thailand May 13, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's annual headline inflation rate may have quickened in July and moved into the central bank's target range for a fourth straight month, while June factory output growth likely eased slightly, a Reuters poll showed.

 

The median forecast of 12 economists was for the headline consumer price index (CPI) to rise 1.46 percent in July from a year earlier after June's 1.38 percent increase.

 

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has forecast 2018 headline inflation of 1.1 percent, against its 1-4 percent target range.

 

The core inflation rate, which strips out energy and fresh food prices, was seen at 0.82 percent in July, little changed from June's 0.83 percent, according to the poll.

 

Thailand's manufacturing production index in June probably rose 3.0 percent from a year earlier after rising 3.20 percent in May.

 

The BOT has left its policy interest rate <THCBIR=ECI> unchanged at 1.50 percent, near record lows, since a cut in April 2015.

 

It will next review policy on Aug. 8. Most analysts expect no policy change throughout 2018, though some predict rate increases.

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Chinthathip Nanthavong; Editing by Sunil Nair)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-07-27

What a strange phrase - Headline Inflation. Sounds like there will be more reading required of the public.

20 hours ago, webfact said:

Most analysts expect no policy change throughout 2018, though some predict rate increases.

Some:

Tim Leelahaphan, an economist at the Standard Chartered Bank Thailand, "predicted that the Bank of Thailand was unlikely to defy the trend of rising interest rates. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee recently changed its tone about the policy rate. They have started to discuss rate normalisation after keeping a historically low rate of 1.5 per cent so long"

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1049652-baht-expected-to-strengthen-by-year-end/?utm_source=newsletter-20180723-1244&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

If BOT refuses to raise interest rates before year end should in response to rising inflation rate, its intention is then driven then solely by politics and not by economic reality. BOT then no longer can be considered to serve its fiduciary responsibility to the Thai People. But rather becomes a functionary of the Junta.