Thaksin's Loss, Us's Gain

[LaoPo]

Thaksin's loss, US's gain

-not sure if this was posted earlier-

Long indepth article from AsiaTimes:

Excerpt:

" In many ways, Thailand's coup has served US regional interests well. Thailand is historically Washington's most trusted strategic ally in Southeast Asia, and US officials are leveraging their senior military contacts now in government in a bid to counterbalance China's expanding regional influence. While the US maintained strong ties with Thaksin's authoritarian administration, particularly through cooperation on counter-terrorism issues, there were concurrent concerns in Washington that the ethnically Chinese Thaksin [1] was gradually moving Thailand closer to Beijing at the United States' strategic expense. "

Rest of the article here:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IB09Ae03.html

LaoPo

[Grover]

that was an article worth reading, putting a wider perspective on things.

[kmart]

Interesting perspective. Thanks for posting that.

[LaoPo]

It's an interesting perspective indeed.

The writer however is very cautious, especially in the end of his article.

Washington/CIA is playing poker with two cards (CNS and Thaksin) in a game between two powers -China and the USA- in which game Thailand is inbetween.

We shouldn't forget that many Thai at the -present- top are ethnic Chinese as well, like Thaksin.

There's a lot going on behind the scenes; a lot more than we know...

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Nothing new there, the big RISK game continues. Thailand allegiances (post coup) never in doubt really. The monarchy simply sticks with those who helped them in the past. Cambodia, Burma, Laos, much more intersting cases.

[Jai Dee]

Interesting observation on the "anti-Thaksin movement's" concentration of its "xenophobic energies"...

[Losangels]

Yes, very informative and interesting article. Thank you

[chuchok]

Interesting observation on the "anti-Thaksin movement's" concentration of its "xenophobic energies"...

you mean to say that "xenophobia" was/is alive and well here JD.....

[ColPyat]

Sorry to be a fly in the ointment again, but i am not that impressed with Crispin's analyses.

What he does fail to mention is that "the coup makers" are not a monolithic organisation (which is almost always the tone of his articles), but a very diverse conglomerate of military factions that found itself in one common interest though still divided by many not unimportant details, such as ideology and the usual rivalries here. And within that conglomerate are many officers, especially under the younger and upcoming officers, who are very anti American and pro China.

Thaksin and TRT wasn't monolithic the same way. Personal business interests there have bridge political and ideological borders all along.

It's a simplification to just generalise the splits here along the lines of pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin, and put the military in one bucket of "pro US".

His mentioning of US fears of Thaksin being because of his Chinese ethnicy ("there were concurrent concerns in Washington that the ethnically Chinese Thaksin [1] was gradually moving Thailand closer to Beijing at the United States' strategic expense") more inclined towards China fails to mention that many very powerful people of his opposition are equally ethnic Chinese, and do have very close ties to China's leadership as well, and equal business interests in China.

Thailand always was heavily influenced by China, and Chinese. Even in times of the Ayutthaya period there were many Chinese living in Thailand, and had powerful positions in business and politics. Many Thai royals have Chinese blood as well.

Things are a lot more complex here than "Pro US" and "Pro China", especially when attaching such labels to different groups in Thai politics that do not exists in such clear lines as Crispin tries to make one believe.

Things here are in an evershifting flux, occasionally groups of vested interest find common ground, but more often than not they don't. There were times when the opposition to Thaksin and Thaksin worked on issues very well together, even though they were in many fundamentals seperated. It is a fallacy to believe that this has changed with the coup. There still are many groups of vested interest, and some are more inclined towards China, and some not, and most do very pragmatic momentary decisions that switch either way depending on situation.

Especially the policies towards China are not going to be decided along the same lines the US decides them, just because some members of the junta have benefitted from US scholarships and training.

Thailand will continue to walk its own way with China while compromising with the US, and at times not.

[LaoPo]

Well said ColPyat; excellent analysis.

LaoPo

[meom]

His mentioning of US fears of Thaksin being because of his Chinese ethnicy fails to mention that many very powerful people of his opposition are equally ethnic Chinese, and do have very close ties to China's leadership as well, and equal business interests in China.

There's a lot of ethnic Chinese but the way I understand it they're not necessary equal since it depends which dialect group they originate from such as Teochiu, Hokkien, Hakka e.o

The majority of etnic Chinese in Thailand are Teochiu while for example Hokkien are the majority in Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia.

[ColPyat]

Well said ColPyat; excellent analysis.

LaoPo

I have problems with Crispin's articles. This is not the first one.

I have problems to understand why many of the long term foreign correspondents like him here are very blatantly pro junta. I have a few theories about that, one is that because of their not unjustified dislike towards Thaksin they are somewhat turning a blind eye towards the junta. They rarely do their stories in the field anymore, and mostly call up their long term friends and contacts when writing a story, and because of this only get very onesided views on the present political situation (as they did during Thaksin's rule) by highly places Thais (though not the movers and shakers here) whose views are often slanted by their hopes than by facts.

Another reason is more practical - don't rock the boat - and you can have a fabulous time here. Not much is expected to justify their salaries...

[ColPyat]

His mentioning of US fears of Thaksin being because of his Chinese ethnicy fails to mention that many very powerful people of his opposition are equally ethnic Chinese, and do have very close ties to China's leadership as well, and equal business interests in China.

There's a lot of ethnic Chinese but the way I understand it they're not necessary equal since it depends which dialect group they originate from such as Teochiu, Hokkien, Hakka e.o

The majority of etnic Chinese in Thailand are Teochiu while for example Hokkien are the majority in Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia.

Exactly.

There are also huge differences between the older business families and relative new comers like Thaksin, and the ones who made it before that into aristocracy.

Here in Thailand the ethnic Chinese have been more integrated into society than anywhere else, and there often is very little separation between ethnic Thais and ethnic Chinese.

Thaksin himself, i believe is Chin Haw - from Yunnan, very different than Teochiu.

[LaoPo]

Exactly.

There are also huge differences between the older business families and relative new comers like Thaksin, and the ones who made it before that into aristocracy.

Here in Thailand the ethnic Chinese have been more integrated into society than anywhere else, and there often is very little separation between ethnic Thais and ethnic Chinese.

Thaksin himself, i believe is Chin Haw - from Yunnan, very different than Teochiu.

Thaksin's family background:

" Thaksin's great-grandfather Seng Sae Khu (surname 邱）was a Hakka Chinese immigrant from Meizhou, Guangdong who arrived in Siam in the 1860s and settled in Chiang Mai in 1908. "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shina...mily_background

Myself, I have a little problem to call someone 'Chinese' or 'Irish' or 'German' or whatever when 5, 6 or more generations have been living in a certain country (more than 100-150 years), especially when they adopted (forced in Thailand...) the local country's (Thai) names.

The Thai-Chinese however are very proud to be of Chinese background.

LaoPo

[ColPyat]

Exactly.

There are also huge differences between the older business families and relative new comers like Thaksin, and the ones who made it before that into aristocracy.

Here in Thailand the ethnic Chinese have been more integrated into society than anywhere else, and there often is very little separation between ethnic Thais and ethnic Chinese.

Thaksin himself, i believe is Chin Haw - from Yunnan, very different than Teochiu.

Thaksin's family background:

" Thaksin's great-grandfather Seng Sae Khu (surname 邱）was a Hakka Chinese immigrant from Meizhou, Guangdong who arrived in Siam in the 1860s and settled in Chiang Mai in 1908. "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shina...mily_background

Myself, I have a little problem to call someone 'Chinese' or 'Irish' or 'German' or whatever when 5, 6 or more generations have been living in a certain country (more than 100-150 years), especially when they adopted (forced in Thailand...) the local country's (Thai) names.

The Thai-Chinese however are very proud to be of Chinese background.

LaoPo

My mistake.

But yes, i do have the same difficulties to still call Thai Chinese simply as "Chinese" as well, and therefore "pro China". It's all a bit more complex.

[meom]

If you're interested to know more about the complexities of Chinese that have emigrated to Thailand and other Asian countries I recommend reading Lords of the Rim by Sterling Seagrave.

[ColPyat]

If you're interested to know more about the complexities of Chinese that have emigrated to Thailand and other Asian countries I recommend reading Lords of the Rim by Sterling Seagrave.

I have read it. Only one criticism - he makes it somehow appear as if all Chinese are somehow part of the conspiracies he describes. Most overseas Chinese aren't - they are just normal folks who have no more idea about the business practices of a few.

[Jet Gorgon]

If you're interested to know more about the complexities of Chinese that have emigrated to Thailand and other Asian countries I recommend reading Lords of the Rim by Sterling Seagrave.

I have read it. Only one criticism - he makes it somehow appear as if all Chinese are somehow part of the conspiracies he describes. Most overseas Chinese aren't - they are just normal folks who have no more idea about the business practices of a few.

I'm with ColPyat. Seagrave may profess to be a historian, but his books are just a few facts twisted by his perceptions, whether romantic or jaded. Another case in point, The Soong Sisters. Any of his works should be read with a sack of salt, just like the fiction of Clavell (Shogu, Taipan, etc) and Brown (Da Vinci Code).

[Prakanong]

Interesting

Harry Lee Kuan Yew's was a Hakka whose family migrated to Guangdon before ending up in Singapore it states in his book

Similar to Thaksins

[meom]

If you're interested to know more about the complexities of Chinese that have emigrated to Thailand and other Asian countries I recommend reading Lords of the Rim by Sterling Seagrave.

I have read it. Only one criticism - he makes it somehow appear as if all Chinese are somehow part of the conspiracies he describes. Most overseas Chinese aren't - they are just normal folks who have no more idea about the business practices of a few.

I'm with ColPyat. Seagrave may profess to be a historian, but his books are just a few facts twisted by his perceptions, whether romantic or jaded. Another case in point, The Soong Sisters. Any of his works should be read with a sack of salt, just like the fiction of Clavell (Shogu, Taipan, etc) and Brown (Da Vinci Code).

In a way all historians should be taken with a grain of salt since they describe past events from their own perspective. On the other hand for those people that don’t have a clue about anything Chinese I guess Seagraves book is as good as anyone and gives you plenty of information to work with. The book is easy to read and if you really want to learn more there’s a whole lot of references mentioned to “real” historians for further reading.

[Briggsy]

I don't pretend to be knowledgeable on this topic but I think most expats are aware of the US - Thai military connections.

These include the Cobra Gold annual exercises, numerous scholarships for military officers in the US, allies in "the war on terror", the prison in Udon Thani, a long history of co-operation dating back at least 50 years, planes landing and ships calling into port, etc.

What I'd like to ask is does China have such overt military connections with Thailand or are the contacts more in the way of less-publicised business contracts, golfing afternoons etc.?

[ColPyat]

I don't pretend to be knowledgeable on this topic but I think most expats are aware of the US - Thai military connections.

These include the Cobra Gold annual exercises, numerous scholarships for military officers in the US, allies in "the war on terror", the prison in Udon Thani, a long history of co-operation dating back at least 50 years, planes landing and ships calling into port, etc.

What I'd like to ask is does China have such overt military connections with Thailand or are the contacts more in the way of less-publicised business contracts, golfing afternoons etc.?

Massive business investments, and also military relations.

CP group, one of the biggest corporations in Thailand has, for example, more than 4 Billion dollar investments in China.

While googling i found a rather interesting paper, a bit dated, i think it was written during the financial crises, but it shows very well the post war history of relations between Thailand and China.

http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpap006.cfm

Thailand-China Relations:

From Strategic to Economic Partnership

[jing jing]

One would surmise that Thailand will be playing both (China and U.S.) sides, extracting whatever benefits they can from each one. It would be illogical and out of character for the Thais - no matter which regime is in power - to do otherwise.

[meom]

During Sonthi's recent visit to China he met with the Chinese defense minister Cao Gangchuan and apparently they agreed to expand military cooperation by means of future military exchanges.

Full article here www.indiannotion.com/index.php/articles/9102

[slimdog]

Post-coup Thailand in the eyes of the US and China

Thailand's relations, both strategic and related to defence, with the world's most powerful countries, the US and China, are akin to a cat-and-mouse game - nothing is left to chance.

Both countries play a pivotal role in Thailand's security, as well as its political and economic wellbeing, especially in the aftermath of the September 19 coup.

The US and China have each taken a distinct approach towards Thailand. At home, they were among the first countries to congratulate Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, but both have greatly differed in their follow-up diplomatic activities. While Washington loudly condemned the coup, China was mute under the pretext of the principle of non-interference. An immediate ban of bilateral military assistance worth US$24 million (Bt818 million) was quickly imposed a few days after the coup by the US.

Speedily and discretely, China moved in to fill the void left by the US ban with a special assistance package that included $49 million worth of military aid and training. The good news was delivered to General Sonthi Boonyaratglin during his unpublicised trip to Beijing recently. At a time like this, China's new found power and influence is being felt deeply in Thailand.

Beijing continued with visits by several senior Chinese officials, mostly in the military and security fields. State councillor Tang Jiaxuan, a former Chinese foreign minister, will be visiting Bangkok after Chinese New Year to reaffirm Beijing's support of the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government. Tang has played a significant part in the Thailand-China friendship, as he penned the comprehensive framework of cooperation with former foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan in 1998, which subsequently led to similar agreements with all Asean members. It effectively signalled a new era of closer cooperation between Thailand and China after diplomatic relations were established in 1975.

The exchanging of visits between Surayud and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, could be finalised during Tang's trip. Beijing wanted to delay Surayud's proposed visit to China on February 27 or 28 to either May or June, with Wen's return visit set for the end of the year. Beijing's reluctance drew a shrug from the Thai side.

So far no senior US officials have visited Thailand, except three former presidents, George Bush, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Foreign Minister Nitya Pibulsonggram was unable to secure a positive response from the US State Department on the possibility of him visiting Washington late last month. It was a big blow for him given the extensive network in the capital that he has been building for over a decade. However, the worst has yet to come.

For almost three decades, Thailand and the US have been holding combined military exercises code-named Cobra Gold, which has transformed from a bilateral exercise to what is now the largest US joint military exercise in Asia. But the coup could change all of that this year. Decisions on the exercise will be made next week in Washington. Intra-security agencies will meet and review Thai-US relations and the coup's consequences. At this juncture, preparations for the exercise have yet to be called off.

The coup's aftermath and the latest Thai decision to produce copycat licensed drugs along with subsequent negotiated compromises, not to mention the unfinished Free Trade Agreement, have already turned off some Washington decision makers. They are the same people who follow Thailand's abuse of Karen and Hmong refugees and the country's attempt to forcibly repatriate them. Thaksin Shinawatra's hiring of James Baker's law firm to lobby the Congress and the US government to advocate for his return to power will also increase anti-American sentiment over here.

After a series of bomb blasts rocked Bangkok, Thaksin wanted to improve his sagging image and counter allegations that he was behind the incident. Ironically, he was identified in US Congress documents as the "freely-elected" Thai prime minister, rather than the usual "democratically-elected" leader. Thai folks tend to look suspiciously at the US government's growing ambiguity concerning the government and Thaksin.

Washington-based Thai diplomats know that officials in the Bush administration and lawmakers aere extremely disappointed with the CNS and the government for their failure to deliver a quick return to democracy and a business-like atmosphere. Media intimidation and Internet censorship has further rubbed salt into the wounds and will now form part of the annual human rights report on Thailand to be released by the US State Department at the end of the month. It will be more critical than last year's report.

Moreover, the government also shocked international investors and business communities with its capital control measures. With 35 provinces still under martial law and uncertainties surrounding the drafting of the new charter, it is difficult for Bangkok-based US Embassy officials - the same team that handled the 1991 coup with flying colours - and those from the European Union to defend their host country. The current government's performance pales miserably compared to the similar set up under the leadership of Anand Panyarachun in 1991.

All of the above has not posed any problems for the friendship between Thailand and China. In fact, the coup was a blessing for China, as it can now quickly fine-tune relations with its most important partner in Asean. Although the friendship prospered under Thaksin's reign, there was an uneasiness as the bilateral ties were too personalised and interwoven with his business empire and affiliated groups with vested interests. Thaksin's attitude towards the monarchy does not help. Obviously, Thailand-China relations are more resilient and adaptable to a changing environment, especially when it involves drastic changes of government. This is probably true of China's relations with other Asean countries and it augurs well with the shifting geopolitical realities of the region.

Thailand has tried hard to balance its military and economic relationship with the US with those of rising China. So far, it is has not been able to reconcile the two. As a competitor of the US, China is often more agile and seldom argues for diplomatic limitations as the US often does.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/02/12...on_30026583.php

[Scott]

I haven't read the article, but would like to add a comment concerning the perception of ethnic Chinese by Thais. There is a strong undercurrent of anit-chinese sentiment in the country. I've taught Thai history and this has periodically raised it's ugly head--for example King Taksin (not the PM) was ethnic Chinese and once he had solidified the country, he was put killed. Many historians indicate that the reason was because his ethnicity is Chinese and he was viewed as not being Thai.

I know a lot of ethnic Chinese people--some are quite wealthy and well-connected. If you ask them what they are more of the thime they will reply they are Thai. Around Chinese New Year they suddenly become Chinese.

Not too long after Thaksin was in power, he made a visit to his grandparents home in China. At the time I thought and said to some friends that was a very bad move on his part. There is a very large group of people who simply do not trust the Chinese.