U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009

[rooster59]

U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009

By Lucia Mutikani

 

People wait in line at a stand during the Executive Branch Job Fair hosted by the Conservative Partnership Institute at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, U.S., June 15, 2018. REUTERS/Toya Sarno Jordan

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December.

 

The Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate was steady at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent as 711,000 people entered the labor force, in a sign of confidence in the jobs market.

 

Sustained labor market strength eased fears about the economy's health following weak housing and business spending data. President Donald Trump cheered the robust jobs report, which came less than a week before the midterm elections that will decide who controls the U.S. Congress.

 

"These are incredible numbers," Trump tweeted.

 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 250,000 jobs last month as employment in the leisure and hospitality sector bounced back after being held down by Hurricane Florence, which drenched North and South Carolina in mid-September.

 

There were also big gains in construction, professional and business services payrolls, and manufacturing, where employment increased by the most in 10 months.

 

The economy created 118,000 jobs in September.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would increase by 190,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate would be unchanged at 3.7 percent. The Labor Department said Hurricane Michael, which struck the Florida Panhandle in mid-October, "had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment estimates for October."

 

Average hourly earnings rose five cents, or 0.2 percent, in October after advancing 0.3 percent in September. That boosted the annual increase in wages to 3.1 percent, the biggest gain since April 2009, from 2.8 percent in September.

 

Employers also increased hours for workers last month. The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in September.

 

"The report shows a booming U.S. economy with a sufficient whiff of wage inflation to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December and at least twice next year," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York.

 

The dollar <.DXY> was trading higher against a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street fell while U.S. Treasury yields rose.

 

Strong annual wage growth mirrors other data published this week showing wages and salaries rising in the third quarter by the most since mid-2008. Hourly compensation also increased at a brisk pace in the third quarter.

 

Firming wages support the view that inflation will hover around the Fed's 2.0 percent target for a while. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding the volatile food and energy components, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, has increased by 2.0 percent for five straight months.

 

GRAPHIC: U.S. wage growth -

 

MODESTLY INFLATIONARY

 

The Fed is not expected to raise rates at its policy meeting next week, but economists believe October's strong labor market data could see the U.S. central bank signal an increase in December. The Fed raised borrowing costs in September for the third time this year.

 

Some economists said Fed officials were likely to view the low unemployment and rising wages as modestly inflationary.

 

"The risk in 2019 is that the Fed will increase the pace of rate hikes," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. "Market participants will likely need to adjust their expectations going forward."

 

Employers, scrambling to find qualified workers, are boosting wages. There are a record 7.14 million open jobs.

 

Online retail giant Amazon.com Inc <AMZN.O> announced last month it would raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour for U.S. employees starting in November. Workers at United States Steel Corp <X.N> are set to receive a hefty pay rise also.

 

Employment gains averaged 218,000 jobs per month over the past three months, double the roughly 100,000 needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

 

That is seen supporting the economy through at least early 2019 when gross domestic product is expected to significantly slow as the stimulus from the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades.

 

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, rose to 62.9 percent last month from 62.7 percent in September.

 

A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent, matching a 17-year low hit in August.

 

The employment-to-population ratio rose to 60.6 percent, the highest since January 2009, from 60.4 in September.

 

Last month, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 42,000 jobs after being unchanged in September. Retail payrolls rose by only 2,400 amid declines in employment at gasoline stations and sporting goods and music stores.

 

Construction companies hired 30,000 more workers in October. Jobs in the sector have been increasing despite weakness in the housing market. Government payrolls rose by 4,000 jobs.

 

Manufacturing employment increased by 32,000 jobs in October after adding 18,000 positions in September. So far, hiring in the manufacturing sector does not appear to have been affected by the White House's protectionist trade policy, which has contributed to capacity constraints at factories.

 

The United States is locked in a bitter trade war with China that has led to tit-for-tat tariffs. Washington also has imposed tariffs on products from other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico, prompting retaliation.

 

Despite the protectionist measures, the trade deficit continues to deteriorate. In a separate report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion in September, widening for a fourth straight month.

 

"Tariffs have done little to dent America's appetite for imports," said Emily Mandel, an economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "The trade deficit will remain a drag on the economy."

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-11-03

[lovelomsak]

Way to go Donald Trump.  I love it how people here are so quiet about the good things that Trump is doing in America but are so quick talk up a storm of protest if they manage to find something they can use against him. Witch hunters come to mind.

[sirineou]

15 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

Way to go Donald Trump.  I love it how people here are so quiet about the good things that Trump is doing in America but are so quick talk up a storm of protest if they manage to find something they can use against him. Witch hunters come to mind.

Is it because of Trump or is it despite of Trump?

I wonder if things would be better or worst is someone other than Trump was president.

[attrayant]

And now for some context:

 

 

[car720]

and how much is spin at this time?

[pegman]

57 minutes ago, attrayant said:

And now for some context:

 

 

Yup, the Obama resurgent economy continues. A Nobel for Economics may just be in order. Trump can be crowned King of Deficits.

[alex8912]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

Is it because of Trump or is it despite of Trump?

I wonder if things would be better or worst is someone other than Trump was president.

How much better than a 3.7% unemployment rate can there be? It’s a huge country too and many states are below that figure.  With people between jobs and looking for work etc it’s hard to be below 2/3% ever! 

Well except in Thailand of course! I’m sure there will be posters coming along with links etc to prove the States are a mess.  In real non link America that I just spent six months in, everyone was getting raises, getting promotions , getting BETTER higher paying jobs and I meet a lot of people in my line of work and socially. Many legal people from outside the states are coming in also for very high paying jobs as well.  

Edited November 3, 2018 by alex8912

[lovelomsak]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

Is it because of Trump or is it despite of Trump?

I wonder if things would be better or worst is someone other than Trump was president.

Gee I do not know maybe you can answer that one yourself.

  But I would say because of Trump.

[Tug]

The deregulation and tax scam have a lot to do with it but we must rember trump inherited a strong rising economy I fear with the ballooning deficit trade wars that this may well crash down 

[attrayant]

1 hour ago, lovelomsak said:

Gee I do not know [...] But I would say because of Trump.

 

Good thing doctors don't work that way.  "I don't know why you're sick, but let's remove your left kidney anyway."

[FitnessHealthTravel]

Got it.  This is the growth Obama is taking credit for...phew!!!

[pegman]

1 hour ago, alex8912 said:

How much better than a 3.7% unemployment rate can there be? It’s a huge country too and many states are below that figure.  With people between jobs and looking for work etc it’s hard to be below 2/3% ever! 

Well except in Thailand of course! I’m sure there will be posters coming along with links etc to prove the States are a mess.  In real non link America that I just spent six months in, everyone was getting raises, getting promotions , getting BETTER higher paying jobs and I meet a lot of people in my line of work and socially. Many legal people from outside the states are coming in also for very high paying jobs as well.  

The USA has a labour participation rate of <63% which isn't so great. What would the unemployment rate be if it was high like the UK's 78%. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/labor-force-participation-rate

 

[Thakkar]

[direction BANGKOK]

I am perfectly fine giving Trump credit, but, you gotta then give credit to positive change when there is a liberal president. It all comes out a sort of wash in the end. 

[pegman]

38 minutes ago, direction BANGKOK said:

I am perfectly fine giving Trump credit, but, you gotta then give credit to positive change when there is a liberal president. It all comes out a sort of wash in the end. 

You know that's not going to happen. These hard core conservatives turned on a prisoner of war like McCain and swift boated a war hero like John Kerry for a couple of draft dodgers. They are of the lowest character and morals. 

[malibukid]

meanwhile i got a whopping 3% COLA this year from SS.

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, pegman said:

The USA has a labour participation rate of <63% which isn't so great. What would the unemployment rate be if it was high like the UK's 78%. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/labor-force-participation-rate

 

Now down to Earth: some numbers behind the headlines

 

Working age Americans counted out of the workforce: 96 millions

 

Employment participation rate in 2018: around 62%

Employment participation rate in 2007: around 67%

 

Americans making less than 30,000 dollars a year: 50%

Annual income determining the poverty line: 29,000 dollars

 

Credit card debt and auto debt at all time high

 

As goes the saying: if you torture the data enough, it will confess to anything! (including a ridiculously low unemployment rate 3 days before the elections)

 

The danger, for the Americans, is that their media have become unable to do any research and analysis, preferring to gobble up the numbers thrown at them by the "official" agencies and spit them back right away to their public.

 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Brunolem

[Peasandmash]

when a billionaire is President the US economy soars. when a black racist is President, the US black's racism soars.  what's so difficult to understand?

[sirineou]

4 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

Gee I do not know maybe you can answer that one yourself.

  But I would say because of Trump.

 I don't know either,  First of all just because other countries are doing worst, it does not mean we are doing great, it simply means we are doing better. 

   The chronically ill person  is doing better than deceased person but should we be congratulating the doctor or looking for a different one? It is a serious question .  

Why do you think it's because of Trump , What policies has he implemented that you think are beneficial to you and me?

 

[alex8912]

3 hours ago, pegman said:

The USA has a labour participation rate of <63% which isn't so great. What would the unemployment rate be if it was high like the UK's 78%. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/labor-force-participation-rate

 

Could it be there are so many Americans who are extremely successful by their 40’s or even 30’s that they don’t work anymore? Same with Germans and many others on the list. Not impressed with the UK stats at all. There are a lot of expats in this forum that should have worked till they were 80 by the way they seem to be getting by. The UK is neck and neck with North Korea ( aren’t they forced to work)!! 

Edited November 3, 2018 by alex8912

[alex8912]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Now down to Earth: some numbers behind the headlines

 

Working age Americans counted out of the workforce: 96 millions

 

Employment participation rate in 2018: around 62%

Employment participation rate in 2007: around 67%

 

Americans making less than 30,000 dollars a year: 50%

Annual income determining the poverty line: 29,000 dollars

 

Credit card debt and auto debt at all time high

 

As goes the saying: if you torture the data enough, it will confess to anything! (including a ridiculously low unemployment rate 3 days before the elections)

 

The danger, for the Americans, is that their media have become unable to do any research and analysis, preferring to gobble up the numbers thrown at them by the "official" agencies and spit them back right away to their public.

 

You are just putting up a bunch of negative numbers yourself. You know how much cash is flowing around the states that goes right into peoples pockets? Just think of electricians, plumbers , artists, real estate agents , lawyers, teachers tutoring , servers at restaurants , bar tenders, on and on and on who make sooo much cash money for working on the side , or after work or who take pay in cash that is tax free. THOSE would be the REAL income stats but they can’t really be verified. I bet more than half of your 30k per year people make 50/60k or more in real life income. This is especially common in the states.  

Edited November 3, 2018 by alex8912

[Brunolem]

16 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

Could it be there are so many Americans who are extremely successful by their 40’s or even 30’s that they don’t work anymore? 

Unlikely...

 

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/62-percent-of-all-u-s-jobs-do-not-pay-enough-to-support-a-middle-class-life

 

There is also that...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/fed-survey-40-percent-of-adults-cant-cover-400-emergency-expense.html

 

 

[sirineou]

5 hours ago, alex8912 said:

How much better than a 3.7% unemployment rate can there be? It’s a huge country too and many states are below that figure.  With people between jobs and looking for work etc it’s hard to be below 2/3% ever! 

Well except in Thailand of course! I’m sure there will be posters coming along with links etc to prove the States are a mess.  In real non link America that I just spent six months in, everyone was getting raises, getting promotions , getting BETTER higher paying jobs and I meet a lot of people in my line of work and socially. Many legal people from outside the states are coming in also for very high paying jobs as well.  

 i belong to the international brotherhood of carpenters union, Local 212 and the teamsters union ,local 282.

In the carpenters union we are having a $5 per hr pay cut effective Jan 1, the teamster union has cut its pension 29% to keep the fund from running out of money. 

 

[alex8912]

4 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Unlikely...

 

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/62-percent-of-all-u-s-jobs-do-not-pay-enough-to-support-a-middle-class-life

 

There is also that...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/fed-survey-40-percent-of-adults-cant-cover-400-emergency-expense.html

 

 

You can keep spitting out silly links till the sausage factory shuts down. I didn’t even bother to open up the second one. The first one mentions pay checks. That is what my more recent post on this topic specifically said that Americans are NOT getting. They are getting paid in cash! It’s not going to be included on your link stats. The cash amount is huge and often doubled the reported income. Many many people in the states work in the side ( yes under the table) in a vast variety of professions. Not just the main one here in Thailand. 

[Brunolem]

23 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

You are just putting up a bunch of negative numbers yourself. 

These numbers are not mine.

They are published by the BLS (out of the workforce, participation rate), the Social Security (yearly income), and the Fed (debt).

 

Easy to check on internet if you have some doubt.

 

Now, if you say that "more than half" of the US economic activity is made on the black market, then this is something else altogether...it means that America is quickly changing into a Greek like economy, where most of the transactions are unknown from the authorities, and of course escape all forms of taxation.

 

Not sure if it is a good sign...

Edited November 3, 2018 by Brunolem

[alex8912]

3 minutes ago, sirineou said:

 i belong to the international brotherhood of carpenters union, Local 212 and the teamsters union ,local 282.

In the carpenters union we are having a $5 per hr pay cut effective Jan 1, the teamster union has cut its pension 29% to keep the fund from running out of money. 

 

And I work in Real Estate in Boston and I see carpenters making INSANE $$$ per hour under the table every night I worked this entire spring and summer. And saw it. Plumbers are like the new millionaires. Don’t even get me going dude!!! 

[alex8912]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

These numbers are not mine.

They are published by the BLS (out of the workforce, participation rate), the Social Security (yearly income), and the Fed (debt).

 

Easy to check on internet if you have some doubt.

 

Now, if you say that "more than half" of the US economic activity is made on the black market, then this is something else altogether...it means that America is quickly changing into a Greek like economy, where most of the transactions are unknown from the authorities, and of course escape all form of taxing.

 

Not sure if it is a good sign...

I’ll take back more than half if that’s what I said but not much less than half. I’m not saying it’s good but I know it is extremely widespread in the states in an extremely large group of different professions. Just like I responded to the carpenter just now. His profession and others like electricians and plumbers are making incredible $$$$ under the table. In those professions it’s more than 50% and often even if you bribe them with more $$ for some emergency that comes up they are too busy or too rich to take on another job. It’s really widespread especially in Boston and New York City area where I have first hand experience just this past six months. I know 27 year old plumbers making 175K a year and reporting much much less. Others as well. Not bragging and not saying it’s a healthy way to go , but but but that money is going back into the economy as well.

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

I’ll take back more than half if that’s what I said but not much less than half. I’m not saying it’s good but I know it is extremely widespread in the states in an extremely large group of different professions. Just like I responded to the carpenter just now. His profession and others like electricians and plumbers are making incredible $$$$ under the table. In those professions it’s more than 50% and often even if you bribe them with more $$ for some emergency that comes up they are too busy or too rich to take on another job. It’s really widespread especially in Boston and New York City area where I have first hand experience just this past six months. I know 27 year old plumbers making 175K a year and reporting much much less. Others as well. Not bragging and not saying it’s a healthy way to go , but but but that money is going back into the economy as well.

Sure, but it has always been like that with these types of activities, and not only in the US...plumbers and electricians are also doing very well in Europe, mostly because there are not enough of them.

 

Yet, these "under the table" opportunities don't extend to the millions working in restauration, warehouses, factories and so on.

 

Generally speaking, the US economic activity, as it is reported, doesn't fit with its debt (public and private).

 

Why do the debts keep on growing quickly in a supposedly booming economy?

 

Or, looking at it from the opposite side, could the economy keep on running without the doping effect of debt?

 

 

 

[wonder6281]

More hot air the US economy bubble. I fear what happens when it pops! It won't be pretty. 

[jcsmith]

Here's an easier to read chart of actual wage growth. It's been stagnantfor a couple of years, after slow increases following the recession. It's October numbers are a spike but it's generally been flat.