Britain in Brexit chaos - parliament crushes May's EU deal again

[nauseus]

30 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

I'm afraid not, it would be a resounding defeat ... hence the reason that extreme Brexiteers are so scared of that outcome. 

 

But I've been hearing many Brexiteer predictions for almost three years now ... only to watch each prediction get knocked over, one by one. Like the ERG, every "cunning plan" an unmitigated disaster. I laughed watching Rees-Mogg gulp for air as the presenter suggested that he'd go down in history as the man who lost Brexit. It's beginning to sink in.

 

 

 

You have been making your own predictions too. You may be right. You may be wrong. But what you are far too confident and absolutely wrong about is that, if there were to be a rerun, there would be no resounding defeat, either way.

[bomber]

2 minutes ago, roo860 said:

Seems like it's started in Spoons already, nothing like an early start.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Brexit will help spoonies when more folks have no jobs,party time,mr spoonie wasnt a leave  voter without good reason

[bomber]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

You have been making your own predictions too. You may be right. You may be wrong. But what you are far too confident and absolutely wrong about is that, if there were to be a rerun, there would be no resounding defeat, either way.

Are you trying to say their are more Turkeys out there

[beautifulthailand99]

• 4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

  The real reason for remain surfacing on the port bow.

  Who votes to make themselves poorer....stupid people I would hazard a guess. Obviously none of the principled folk here who have girded their loins and adopted the brace position in the cause of a Patriotic Renaissance.....

[evadgib]

8 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

The Brexit camp is replete with irony.

 

Brexiteer goes begging cap in hand to EU nation leader to ask that they use their sovereign vote in a vain hope of delivering the Brexit he and his chums failed to deliver.

A Sovereign leader who wants out & is among several key players to have offered their assistance...?

Time for your trademark stamp! ????

Edited March 14, 2019 by evadgib

[JTXR]

Why in heaven's name should the EU give the UK an extension?  Another few weeks or months of the same dithering done for two years?  Just exit and get it over with for crying out loud.

[CG1 Blue]

10 hours ago, Spidey said:

Poor beleaguered Brexiteers sink deeper into denial.

More constructive debate from a remainer...

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

More constructive debate from a remainer...

So offer the Brexit plan that’s been absent from the start.

[CG1 Blue]

13 hours ago, tebee said:

 

James O'Brien.  Possibly the most closed minded radio presenter I've ever listed to. He point blank refuses to consider any counter arguments, and instead abuses his position as the host to shut people down. It's a shame because it results in the vast majority of his listeners / contributors having the same view as him, as those who oppose him switch off. And that results in a one sided debate - which is very boring. 

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

A Sovereign leader who wants out & is among several key players to have offered their assistance...?

Time for your trademark stamp! ????

In that very unlikely event Mrs May’s deal would go through. As a remainer I can live with an exit that has a transition period. What I’m not living with is an attempt by zealots to force no deal on the country ... something that no Leave politician campaigned for. 

 

But how likely is that? Salvini would be expending enormous political capital for a fight that he doesn’t have a dog in. He’d have to weigh up the unintended consequences and backlash, from within Italy and outside.

 

What are the bookies odds? They don’t offer any? Oh well.

[AlexRich]

54 minutes ago, JTXR said:

Why in heaven's name should the EU give the UK an extension?  Another few weeks or months of the same dithering done for two years?  Just exit and get it over with for crying out loud.

I hope you’re not crying out loud .... do it behind closed doors.

[CG1 Blue]

8 hours ago, Spidey said:

A lot of MPs took May's line in that, whilst no deal is on the table, it gives a bargaining chip to the UK when dealing with the EU. Laughable.

 

There are only 47 MPs, Moggy's ERG group, who would be happy with a no deal exit.

There was a rumour going around the corridors last night that the ERG will back May's deal on the condition that she subsequently resigns as PM. Not sure how true that is, or what would motivate them to propose this.  Perhaps so that we have somebody new to negotiate ton trade etc. after the WA has gone through? 

Anyway, that was on BBC 5 Live. 

[AlexRich]

2 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

There was a rumour going around the corridors last night that the ERG will back May's deal on the condition that she subsequently resigns as PM. Not sure how true that is, or what would motivate them to propose this.  Perhaps so that we have somebody new to negotiate ton trade etc. after the WA has gone through? 

Anyway, that was on BBC 5 Live. 

I suspect that is how this will end. They are gambling that a hardline Brexiteer will be voted leader and can then take charge of negotiations. 

 

What they will find is that negotiations will not be simple, and will drag on for a few years beyond the next election. With an extremist in charge we may well see swelling in the ranks of the Independent Group, and a General Election which results in a coalition Labour Government. A bad deal for the UK, but absolutely toxic for anyone hoping for a pure ERG Brexit outcome.

 

We are not even at the end of the beginning.

[CG1 Blue]

6 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

"MPs have a duty to represent the whole of their constituencies"

 

Agree entirely, which is why any of those in leave constituencies obviously supporting remain, will be in trouble at the next GE ????.

Absolutely.  And according to estimates 75% of Tory constituencies voted Leave, and 61% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. When you consider the way things are going in Parliament, the MPs are certainly not representing their constituents! 

 

[CG1 Blue]

28 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

I suspect that is how this will end. They are gambling that a hardline Brexiteer will be voted leader and can then take charge of negotiations. 

 

What they will find is that negotiations will not be simple, and will drag on for a few years beyond the next election. With an extremist in charge we may well see swelling in the ranks of the Independent Group, and a General Election which results in a coalition Labour Government. A bad deal for the UK, but absolutely toxic for anyone hoping for a pure ERG Brexit outcome.

 

We are not even at the end of the beginning.

So the vote later today as I understand it is for a 'technical extension' till 30th June to allow for May's deal to be implemented. That could be followed by a vote for a much longer extension. A longer extension would of course mean the UK participating in the EU elections. We'd need a pretty convincing argument for the EU to allow that. 

 

The vote for a technical extension will indicate the likelihood of May's deal getting through Parliament at the 3rd attempt. If the technical extension is passed that would indicate there are enough MPs teetering on the brink of supporting the deal. 

 

Most political commentators I heard last night seemed to think May's deal will probably go through at the 11th hour. 

 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

On 3/13/2019 at 6:33 AM, Grouse said:

May's red lines should be discarded. That would open up many "softer" Brexit opportunities. Parliament will not support no deal Brexit. So it's softer Brexit ( as suggested by LAB and EU) or referendum (which would deliver Remain). Nash equilibrium analysis always pointed to N or N+

well, to me N and N+ sounds rather hefty at this stage of the part

 

however, there is a slim continuum between may-deal and no-deal

in which parliament can make rulez for how the government should handle what

they can control within the scope of the deal

 

not saying its wise, but can be done

 

[AlexRich]

4 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

So the vote later today as I understand it is for a 'technical extension' till 30th June to allow for May's deal to be implemented. That could be followed by a vote for a much longer extension. A longer extension would of course mean the UK participating in the EU elections. We'd need a pretty convincing argument for the EU to allow that. 

 

The vote for a technical extension will indicate the likelihood of May's deal getting through Parliament at the 3rd attempt. If the technical extension is passed that would indicate there are enough MPs teetering on the brink of supporting the deal. 

 

Most political commentators I heard last night seemed to think May's deal will probably go through at the 11th hour. 

 

 

 

I think you are correct. And if I’m being non partisan it is probably the only outcome that could reunite the country ... a no deal exit or second vote will cause issues for years into the future. Mrs May is a  wiley old Fox. She’ll retire to the backbenches for a year, and then she’ll hop on board the gravy train like Tony Blair. 

 

 

 

 

[adammike]

6 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

I think you are correct. And if I’m being non partisan it is probably the only outcome that could reunite the country ... a no deal exit or second vote will cause issues for years into the future. Mrs May is a  wiley old Fox. She’ll retire to the backbenches for a year, and then she’ll hop on board the gravy train like Tony Blair. 

 

 

 

 

You can forget about a united country, considering that there a four countries in the UK the shitstorm that Brexit has caused will not go away in a hurry.

[AlexRich]

Just now, adammike said:

You can forget about a united country, considering that there a four countries in the UK the shitstorm that Brexit has caused will not go away in a hurry.

I think that it will drag on for years, but a middle ground solution for this stage of the process will keep everyone in their box for now.

[nausea]

It's like a poker game, everyone is bluffing. Personally, I'd just leave and be done with it. Sometimes, you have to take your losses and walk away. 

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, evadgib said:

That'll happen within weeks of leaving regardless.

says some poster on TVF I'll stick to precedent and markets thank you very much. The pound crashing whatever else it was wasn't project fear. What I find incredible is the ignorant masochism of expats dependent on sterling for the lifestyles cheering on its demise in some misguided sense of patriotism. All it reveals is your stupidity and ignorance in the face of being smashed in the face with economic reality. Plus spending their depleted pounds as pretty much-unwanted immigrants in an undemocratic foreign country when a true patriot would return home, spend their pensions and money in the new emboldened and 'liberated from their shackles UK'. I'll save my sympathy for some dispossed Brit making ends meet in Sheffield or some other disadvantaged town or city that has been left behind - they seemingly have nothing left to lose you however have a lot. The pound in your pocket is very real as you spend it battered by the teflon baht. 

[evadgib]

32 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

says some poster on TVF I'll stick to precedent and markets thank you very much. The pound crashing whatever else it was wasn't project fear. What I find incredible is the ignorant masochism of expats dependent on sterling for the lifestyles cheering on its demise in some misguided sense of patriotism. All it reveals is your stupidity and ignorance in the face of being smashed in the face with economic reality. Plus spending their depleted pounds as pretty much-unwanted immigrants in an undemocratic foreign country when a true patriot would return home, spend their pensions and money in the new emboldened and 'liberated from their shackles UK'. I'll save my sympathy for some dispossed Brit making ends meet in Sheffield or some other disadvantaged town or city that has been left behind - they seemingly have nothing left to lose you however have a lot. The pound in your pocket is very real as you spend it battered by the teflon baht. 

What did you expect to find on a website targeting expats in Thailand?

How are we any less patriotic?

How about remainers who have also chosen to live here?

Advisable to think before hitting reply.

Edited March 14, 2019 by evadgib

[bomber]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

I suspect that is how this will end. They are gambling that a hardline Brexiteer will be voted leader and can then take charge of negotiations. 

 

What they will find is that negotiations will not be simple, and will drag on for a few years beyond the next election. With an extremist in charge we may well see swelling in the ranks of the Independent Group, and a General Election which results in a coalition Labour Government. A bad deal for the UK, but absolutely toxic for anyone hoping for a pure ERG Brexit outcome.

 

We are not even at the end of the beginning.

it makes little difference now,any soft or soft soft brexit the damage done will outlast the majority of people over 55-60,the brexit people voted for in whatever form is not possible and a soft or softer brexit is still worse than being still in the EU,its coalition govts for the foreseeable future and as for foreign investment/jobs we can forget about it,who in their right mind is going to want to come to the UK or even stay in the UK,wait till the forthcoming recession bites and remember the the whole mess was Made in Great Britain

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

• Who votes to make themselves poorer....stupid people I would hazard a guess. Obviously none of the principled folk here who have girded their loins and adopted the brace position in the cause of a Patriotic Renaissance.....

I'm sure most everyone wants more money. Nothing stupid about that. For money alone, you might want to cling on to the status quo and hope it works out. But the present is unlikely be the future in an EU which has a declining share of global prosperity and an increasing number of internal problems. The EU has been run, structured and managed badly and these managers still want to continue centralising and creating the EU single (super?) state - the only place in the world where that is happening now. I think that the UK and most other European countries will ultimately be worse off as members - not just in terms of wealth but from every aspect - that is all.    

[bomber]

3 hours ago, evadgib said:

That'll happen within weeks of leaving regardless.

your dreaming again,would only happen with scrapping brexit altogether,now there's an idea,just think of all the alcoholic british expats in thailand who wont be returning home to clogg up the NHS and wanting pension increases,lets put that on the side of a bus

[evadgib]

36 minutes ago, adammike said:

You can forget about a united country, considering that there a four countries in the UK the shitstorm that Brexit has caused will not go away in a hurry.

It's just got worse but I guess that's another topic.

[Spidey]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I think that the UK and most other European countries will ultimately be worse off as members - not just in terms of wealth but from every aspect - that is all. 

If I had thought that there was the remotest chance of you being right, I would have voted for Brexit too. However, for me, voting remain was a no brainer.

 

BTW. Love your signature line (Barroso quote). Brexiteers have always used that quote against remainers who suggest a second referendum. Now May's deal has been rejected twice. She now want's, nay insists, on a third vote and has intimated that if it doesn't pass she wants a fourth vote. Oh the irony, oh the hypocrisy!

[evadgib]

16 minutes ago, bomber said:

your dreaming again,would only happen with scrapping brexit altogether,now there's an idea,just think of all the alcoholic british expats in thailand who wont be returning home to clogg up the NHS and wanting pension increases,lets put that on the side of a bus

No need pal. NHS guidelines state quite clearly that I and my family are covered as soon as we set foot in UK if we so choose. The last time I was there I carried laminated copies 'just in case' but they weren't needed.

Edited March 14, 2019 by evadgib

[bomber]

8 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I'm sure most everyone wants more money. Nothing stupid about that. For money alone, you might want to cling on to the status quo and hope it works out. But the present is unlikely be the future in an EU which has a declining share of global prosperity and an increasing number of internal problems. The EU has been run, structured and managed badly and these managers still want to continue centralising and creating the EU single (super?) state - the only place in the world where that is happening now. I think that the UK and most other European countries will ultimately be worse off as members - not just in terms of wealth but from every aspect - that is all.    

Even if it did get worse and folded why be the first to jump years before,you lot always shout about how strong the UK is and how great the pound is,so if the EU went down we should be in good position to recover first,the timing of brexit was a joke,we were top of the growth table at the time,and now a nice world recession looming to go with the companies ready to leave.

[bomber]

11 minutes ago, evadgib said:

No need pal. NHS guidelines state quite clearly that I and my family are covered as soon as we set foot in UK if we so choose. The last time I was there i had a laminated copy just in case but they weren't needed.

great enjoy you 40bt pound while you can,even better if its a hard brexit you might get 36 ???? 

Edited March 14, 2019 by bomber