Best estimates for visa changes, the near and far term?

[Dave98]

On 4/30/2019 at 7:51 PM, JackThompson said:

They don't hate us - they do see us as an "other," but that's not the same thing at all.  Talk to those who work in the tourism sector and ask which foreigners they prefer (and hate), to discover that what Immigration/TAT are encouraging is not in line with what Thai's prefer.

I respectfully disagree with you.  Generally, they do hate westerners, but are addicted to the money westerners bring.  I lived in Thailand for 8 years before I left and saw it on a daily basis.  Thailand is for Thais and as a westerner Thailand will never be your home and they will let you know it too.

 

On a different note and to put the number of Chinese tourists in perspective, I flew in last Friday on a quick trip to see my sons.  Despite being early in the AM, the arrival areas and Immigration Control was packed.  I bet there were 25 Chinese for every westerner. I was amazed.

[totally thaied up]

2 minutes ago, Dave98 said:

I flew in last Friday on a quick trip to see my sons.  Despite being early in the AM, the arrival areas and Immigration Control was packed.  I bet there were 25 Chinese for every westerner. I was amazed.

When I flew out of Chiang Mai in March, for a two hour period, There was only three farang in the departure area. I was shocked as well - the rest were all Chinese.

[Mike Teavee]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

And opportunity cost. That much dead money is very expensive. The wealthier people know that better than others. 

Hmmm... I thought I'd already replied to this but my post seems to have been removed, I didn't think there was anything offensive in it, but if there were then my apologies to JT, I quite enjoy our exchanges & think that we see eye-2-eye on most discussions... 

 

To summarize what I posted earlier... 

 

As one gets older one should move their assets from the Riskier/High yielding to the safer/boring/low yielding so I just look at the 800K as part of my ultra-safe/ultra-boring/ultra low risk investments.

 

I might be able to get ~4% net in a similar risk class if I invested it in the UK, but take away the ~2% that I can get in Thailand and the monthly transfer costs (~300 THB) & we're talking about a difference of 1,000 THB per month.

 

For that 1,000 THB I get piece of mind knowing that I won't miss a transfer, have a transfer not show up as coming from overseas or be forced to transfer when FX rates are really poor.  On this last point, I bring in around s$50,000 (SGD) pa so an additional average of 0.32 THB in FX would cover this.

 

Again, I believe it's the best option for me others will already be transferring the money in each month so prefer the Income method, point is there is both options and I for 1 would not want the 800K in the bank option to disappear.

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Mike Teavee

[UKresonant]

2 hours ago, dcnx said:

I’ve used the same visa agent for almost 15 years. She’s never been wrong about anything she’s told me and said recently that mandatory insurance is coming.

They would be better coming up with some sort of bond system, with an insurance tag of  say x4 the bond value, so at least you have a proportion of actual cash for cover sitting there when they say clause 101 gives you no cover. You could get the bond refunded the instant you do not have an extension/ permission to stay. 

I have yet to get any kind of insurance claim, therefore have no basis of faith that they would ever pay out. (I still of course buy insurance, just in case, kind of like doing the lottery).

[utalkin2me]

I do not get it. Sorry I do not. This is why we learn history.

 

There will probably be no changes. Even more probably there will be no changes which drastically affect expats and legit tourists. 

 

I do not know what happened in many people's lives, but the world is not out to get you. Armaggedon is probably not upon us. It will all be ok. You may have to jump a hoop here or there, but it will all be ok. 

[Thaidream]

On 4/30/2019 at 3:02 PM, Jingthing said:

agree with those guesses but we are all just guessing. When I stated lack of optimism before I was referring to my feeling that the chances that the recent set of onerous visa changes will be ROLLED BACK seem very unlikely to me. 

I doubt the current changes will be rolled back but the bureaucracy of how the current system is verified may-  I predict 65K in a Thai bank- no transfers needed- simply have 65K in the bank each month or an Embassy Letter or 400K/800K- same seasoning but no 3 month checks or keeping 400K in the bank for retirees.

 

It would surprise me  if Immigration changed anything further at this time= Big Joke created a lot of bad publicity for Thailand with his constant foreign roundup parade;  the inability to deal with the foreign embassies; and  the average Thai IO complaining that the rules are too hard to understand. Western tourism is down dramatically and overall tourism is declining and  some expats leaving