Rebels hope to kill off May's Brexit deal in 'last-chance' vote

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

Now that's an argument on par with "Brexit: yes or no".

I agree, it's a no-brainer. ???? 

[billd766]

11 hours ago, rickudon said:

So, what will happen after a hard Brexit ...... Well, currently 44% of our exports go to the EU (exact figure is irrelevant, it is what happens to it). After leaving (assuming exchange rate initially stays the same) Those companies who buy British will review the need to do so - economics is what counts. There will now be customs declarations, tariffs etc. and potentially harder to provide just in time logistics. So some companies will find more economic sources of products, probably elsewhere within the EU. So UK exports to EU will fall (unless the GBP is devalued, like immediately after referendum, so making British goods cheaper). 

 

So UK now has unsold production to shift. This would need to find new markets. We will compete against EU countries (who may have a trade deal and therefore lower tariffs), the USA, Japan and China. These 4 entities will be our main competitors. We will have gained no advantage over them due to leaving the EU. We will need to provide a better deal (different standards. lower prices). They were not buying before, so it will be an uphill struggle to sell to them - unless we can provide better, cheaper products. So we can expect UK output to fall at first .... we hope only at first .....

 

Now tell me why a country should start buying our products instead of another countries. What has changed? Maybe we do a deal to import their products, which we couldn't before because they didn't meet EU standards. Never mind, UK can now lower their standards. Some of these products may compete with UK producers and erode their market share.

 

So we have declining sales, lower prices, and lower quality products on sale in the UK. British companies now have to reduce costs - GBP devaluation or wage cuts. I think more Argentina than Zimbabwe, but who knows where it ends!

 

Oh and i forgot to mention that some services (80% of GDP) may no longer be able to be sold to EU countries, How much, do not know, but it can only go down.

 

But who cares about this, no professional EU bureaucrats running things, our own amateur politicians will make decisions instead! And we can see how good they are .....

I don't know what happens after Brexit and I don't think anybody else does either. We all have our own opinions ranging from close to the truth to the sublime and ridiculous.

 

There is sure to be a general election after Mrs May leaves but which parties will enter, who will be the eventual winners is in the lap of the gods.

 

IMHO the Tories will lose big time under whoever the PM is, Labour under JC has about the same chance, the Lib/Dems may pick up a few seats, UKIP will lose badly again, Remain party can't agree on anything, the odds and sods parties will get about the same while the Brexit party under Nigel Farage will come back from the EU (Brexit will be completed by then( and may become the dominant party.

 

This is just my opinion and YMMV.

[UKresonant]

On 5/16/2019 at 9:46 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

Let's imagine for a moment the UK will leave the EU without a deal. And then?

Will they never make any deals with the EU anymore?

Or will they have to make some deals? Or do they have to make many deals with the EU?

It's obvious that with the EU and UK so near to each other there will be a lot going on and they will need many agreements.

Now what is better? Thinking about these agreements up front or first leaving and pretending there is nothing to agree?

No points for the obvious answer.

That's the problem, the politicians do not have a motivation to agree anything, better to leave and them to work round the clock (within the European working time directive of course), to resolve efficient procedures going forward! The current pace of things just is not producing. Of course the common market  was a great concept, but a united states of Europe concept being pushed (far to quickly)is not really attractive for the the common good of people & the UK in general. 

Just been up to cast my vote in the EU elections!