UK PM May's party slumps to third place amid Brexit crisis - opinion poll

[bomber]

1 hour ago, sanemax said:

A few years before the Brexit vote , the Pound was also 44 Baht and the Pound was considered to be overvalued when it was in the mid 50'S to the Baht

wheres the proof as to it been over valued.ready made excuse for breiteers,most were predicting quick returns to 50 when it dropped sub 44 in them times,which it did until brexit came along,anyway all will be well malagateddy is predicting 50 again within 3 months but only after a crash out????

[bomber]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Again! I didn't say that either. I said the UK is better prepared.

well prepared and better prepared surely to god they mean the same thing,you sure know how to move the goal posts.

[bomber]

1 hour ago, yogi100 said:

That drop was down to the financiers being spiteful and punishing us for voting to leave just as they'd warned us they would.

 

Those whizz kids in international banking have made fortunes doing currency exchange deals. The Canary Wharf boys aren't having to tighten their belts, don't worry about them.

 

There was simply no other conceivable reason why our GBP should have dropped so dramatically in so short a time and by so much.

 

They're still keeping it low in the hope that we'll resign ourselves to remaining in their EU and Theresa the Appeaser was their lackey trying to do their bidding but she failed pitifully to pull it off. She might already have a nice number with her name on it waiting for her in Brussels after the dust settles.

correct they did warn you,it was never project fear but reality,iam so pleased after 3 years that its finally sunk in and yes they will do the same again with a crash out,you see its not project fear at all its actually reality,its a global world now and this is how the world does things,thats why MPs wont let brexit happen,farage knows the score he was previously a one of them and JRM is of a similar mould but they have made the fortunes from the likes of yourself and 17 million other turkeys,you just cannot see it

[bomber]

1 hour ago, sanemax said:

If the reason for the Pounds fall to its current rate was solely because of the Brexit vote , why didnt it immediately fall to 39 ?

  Why did it even take four months to fall to 44 (from 48 right after the vote )?

The Pound has been sliding because of the indecision and no one knows what is going on

   The financial markets hate uncertainty .

 

brexit was certain after the vote but still a big drop (10%) so your theory is blown to pieces,its only rallied at certain times in the last 3 years on news of a soft brexit or another vote or revoking A50,SURELY TO GOD YOU CAN SEE IT

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, oilinki said:

Quite the opposite. It was pure due Brexit decision. Pound would have rebounced if it was just a fluke. It never did.

 

Now the pound has gone down due both for Britain's future looking rather dull and Thai future looking a lot better. That's quite simple actually.

 

I suppose Somtam in 2013 did cost about 20 baht. Now it costs 40 baht. The real purchasing power of Thailand has about doubled by those costs. When you take the plummeting of British pound, it has at least tribled in just 6 years. 

 

I hope there is something to think about. 

I don't think I will go to the trible.

[nauseus]

34 minutes ago, bomber said:

correct they did warn you,it was never project fear but reality,iam so pleased after 3 years that its finally sunk in and yes they will do the same again with a crash out,you see its not project fear at all its actually reality,its a global world now and this is how the world does things,thats why MPs wont let brexit happen,farage knows the score he was previously a one of them and JRM is of a similar mould but they have made the fortunes from the likes of yourself and 17 million other turkeys,you just cannot see it

Gobble gobble.

[bomber]

1 hour ago, sanemax said:

Lets hope that a Elon Musk type of British entrepreneur steps up and creates a new UK car builder .

The uk hasnt got the nouse to do such a thing,once the current car producers flee they wont be replaced.barely a car will be made here and zero vans,trucks,buses.game over

[bomber]

1 hour ago, oilinki said:

Well, one reason is that Britain still have full access to the EU internal market. 

 

The hope of Britain being able to have access to EU internal market after the Brexit is still there, but it's getting dimmer and dimmer. 

 

The pound is falling also because the companies, which used to be based in Britain, have slowly moved to the EU mainland. 

 

You are right. The financial markets hate uncertainty, like we ordinary people hate uncertainty as well. 

 

Financial sector actors, companies and people all think the same. UK is no longer the place which offers certainty. Therefore pound will drop again and again and again. 

 

 

even when brexit is scrapped there will still be uncertainty in the financial sectors/big oversea's companies as they could well think the cancer could return,Fartage and his cronies wont ever get into power but some just wont take the chance and will look elsewhere,oh yes brexit even tho it will never happen is going to cause issue's for the UK for years to come.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, bomber said:

well prepared and better prepared surely to god they mean the same thing,you sure know how to move the goal posts.

No. They don't mean the same thing, not even to Him.

 

 

 

 

[Nigel Garvie]

9 hours ago, Loiner said:

Pound still buying the same poundsworth around this part of the UK. Brexiteers still don't seem to care about your particular version of Remoanomics.

Of course this should remind us all of Harold Wilson's famous (For the wrong reasons) speech after devaluation in the 60s. He said "The pound in your pocket is still the same", (Or something close to that, he was ridiculed at the time, which just illustrates how far we have sunk, people gobble up fake news with enthusiasm nowadays.). Of course that would only be the case if you never travelled abroad, or purchased anything from abroad, wages and inflation didn't diverge, etc.

 

The argument is that a weak £ would increase exports, as it happens export increase has been minimal and we have fallen behind the main other EU countries.

 This is part of an article by a Professor and researcher at LSE (I apologize, they are indeed experts - much despised by Gove- why would you expect anything else from LSE - it's their job).

 

Firstly, the UK’s GDP growth has slowed down. In broad macroeconomic terms, GDP growth in the UK has been low but remained positive since the referendum. Relative to G7 countries, however, the UK has slipped from having the highest growth rate in the G7 before the vote, to the lowest now (OBR 2018). This suggests GDP growth has held up likely as a result of international trends, but it is showing weakening internal trends.

Productivity has also suffered. The negative signs of economic health are confirmed by the outcomes in productivity stagnation. Output per worker has continued to be stagnant since the referendum. Worryingly, the gap between output per worker in OECD countries and the UK has widened since the referendum.

Sterling has depreciated and increased costs. The single biggest economic shock immediately after the referendum has been an unprecedented drop in the value of the pound.  The sterling depreciation was expected by some to spark an export boom, but this has not happened.  Relative to G7 countries, the value of exports from the UK have not grown faster. Industry data confirm this. For example, car exports decreased to both EU and non-EU countries in the three months to December 2018.

[bartender100]

WOW

 

https://humanevents.com/2019/06/01/data-farage-and-brexit-party-could-win-massive-majority-at-uk-general-election/?fbclid=IwAR2G3XSdGx9PTfpT8TC07LtU4qvug4XD-w-EErglZdVTvyTPZgYXnCjlCnc&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F

 

Following Farage’s massive win at the European Election, an analyst has shown how Brexit Party could go on to sweep a general election.

Chris Hanretty, Professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, analyzed how every constituency in the United Kingdom voted in the European Parliament. The academic estimates that the Brexit party won the most votes in over 400 Westminster constituencies and adjusted those numbers to offer some insight into how votes might go in a future general election.

 

If the numbers hold, Farage could lead his party to the biggest general election since Tony Blair led New Labour to victory in 1997

[malagateddy]

That drop was down to the financiers being spiteful and punishing us for voting to leave just as they'd warned us they would.
 
Those whizz kids in international banking have made fortunes doing currency exchange deals. The Canary Wharf boys aren't having to tighten their belts, don't worry about them.
 
There was simply no other conceivable reason why our GBP should have dropped so dramatically in so short a time and by so much.
 
They're still keeping it low in the hope that we'll resign ourselves to remaining in their EU and Theresa the Appeaser was their lackey trying to do their bidding but she failed pitifully to pull it off. She might already have a nice number with her name on it waiting for her in Brussels after the dust settles.

£600,000 annually[emoji34]

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[yogi100]

12 hours ago, oilinki said:

How long do you think that sorting out period will last? 30-50 years? Maybe more?

 

No, you'll be a middle sized country against the giants. You'll learn how it feels to be a small fish in the ocean. Actually it will not be you, who will have to get through all that. It will be your children and your grandchildren. 

 

That is the heritage You, yes, You, will leave to your children and your grandchildren. 

 

Feeling empowered right now?

That won't be anything new. Many of these youngsters have already seen their older people lose their jobs to cheap Eastern European scab labour.

[yodsak]

14 hours ago, Benroon said:

 

The day before the Brexit referendum the pound was worth 52 baht, the morning after the Brexit referendum the baht was worth 43 baht - now what do you think caused that in that specific 24 hour period where we coincidentally had a referendum …...slowly does it …...

The day before the referendum it was  48.4.  The day after it was 46.6  The day after that it was 47.2

 

25th June 2016 >>>>> 28th June 2016

 

Hit 43 on the 9th of October 2016

 

 

[the guest]

People just want the Government or who ever is in power, to respect the wishes of the people that voted to leave, in line with values relating to democracy. 

 

However, it seems democracy has been taken out of the equation, making the UK a laughing stock in the eyes of the world. 

 

Such a shame the country used to be a Great institution, no longer it seems !

[nauseus]

13 hours ago, oilinki said:

Quite the opposite. It was pure due Brexit decision. Pound would have rebounced if it was just a fluke. It never did.

 

Now the pound has gone down due both for Britain's future looking rather dull and Thai future looking a lot better. That's quite simple actually.

 

I suppose Somtam in 2013 did cost about 20 baht. Now it costs 40 baht. The real purchasing power of Thailand has about doubled by those costs. When you take the plummeting of British pound, it has at least tribled in just 6 years. 

 

I hope there is something to think about. 

Not so. Somtam in 2013 did cost about 20 baht here but now it's only 25 baht. And I live in a high-so area!

 

You are inflating inflation as well as tribbling!

[nauseus]

8 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Of course this should remind us all of Harold Wilson's famous (For the wrong reasons) speech after devaluation in the 60s. He said "The pound in your pocket is still the same", (Or something close to that, he was ridiculed at the time, which just illustrates how far we have sunk, people gobble up fake news with enthusiasm nowadays.). Of course that would only be the case if you never travelled abroad, or purchased anything from abroad, wages and inflation didn't diverge, etc.

 

The argument is that a weak £ would increase exports, as it happens export increase has been minimal and we have fallen behind the main other EU countries.

 This is part of an article by a Professor and researcher at LSE (I apologize, they are indeed experts - much despised by Gove- why would you expect anything else from LSE - it's their job).

 

Firstly, the UK’s GDP growth has slowed down. In broad macroeconomic terms, GDP growth in the UK has been low but remained positive since the referendum. Relative to G7 countries, however, the UK has slipped from having the highest growth rate in the G7 before the vote, to the lowest now (OBR 2018). This suggests GDP growth has held up likely as a result of international trends, but it is showing weakening internal trends.

Productivity has also suffered. The negative signs of economic health are confirmed by the outcomes in productivity stagnation. Output per worker has continued to be stagnant since the referendum. Worryingly, the gap between output per worker in OECD countries and the UK has widened since the referendum.

Sterling has depreciated and increased costs. The single biggest economic shock immediately after the referendum has been an unprecedented drop in the value of the pound.  The sterling depreciation was expected by some to spark an export boom, but this has not happened.  Relative to G7 countries, the value of exports from the UK have not grown faster. Industry data confirm this. For example, car exports decreased to both EU and non-EU countries in the three months to December 2018.

Relative to the G7, the EU numbers are worse now.

[vogie]

On 5/31/2019 at 4:42 PM, tebee said:

But the problem is they didn't say how we were to leave the EU.

 

No one knows that even now 

Lord Lawson explains it quite well tebee.

[Rimmer]

A troll/flame post has been reported and has now been removed also replies

[malagateddy]

ooops the brexiteer 'we're not racists' mask slips again

Just telling the truth

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[roobaa01]

yes nigel for prime minister.

 

wbr

roobaa01

[stephenterry]

It is quite clear the value of sterling world-wide has fallen in value. That should be patently obvious even to the blinkered. Relative to other major currencies, whether large or small, it's still lost value, making imports more expensive and causing high street prices to eventually rise when the extra costs cannot be absorbed. 

 

Having said that, the result of the Yougov vote, however much you wish to discount its accuracy, shows a continuing trend to polarisation. And that would continue, make no bones about it.

 

This should concern both Tories and Labour, because, unless a polarised manifesto is presented at a GE, they would continue to lose votes to Brexit and Lib Dems, who have both captured the nation's mood.

 

IMO, the ball is in Labour's hands. They must get off the fence and guarantee another peoples vote, then they would attract all the moderates on both sides, and win the election.

 

If the Tories continue on the same path of dilly-dallying instead of implementing their version of Brexit, good or bad - in a GE their traditional voters would back Farage's party as more of a protest.  That would mean a split vote for and against both, and therefore leave the Lib Dems  - providing Labour continues to prevaricate - well in front. 

 

 

If both parties fail to take the opportunity, the Lib Dems would win the GE. On the basis of both the EU elections and current poll trends, if that continues, it's a guaranteed statistical truism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Benroon said:

Oh no back on the 'ignore list'

 

You've always lost interest when the questions get a little tough

 

 

 

 

Hot bright lights on sale at Macro.

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

It is quite clear the value of sterling world-wide has fallen in value. That should be patently obvious even to the blinkered. Relative to other major currencies, whether large or small, it's still lost value, making imports more expensive and causing high street prices to eventually rise when the extra costs cannot be absorbed. 

 

Having said that, the result of the Yougov vote, however much you wish to discount its accuracy, shows a continuing trend to polarisation. And that would continue, make no bones about it.

 

This should concern both Tories and Labour, because, unless a polarised manifesto is presented at a GE, they would continue to lose votes to Brexit and Lib Dems, who have both captured the nation's mood.

 

IMO, the ball is in Labour's hands. They must get off the fence and guarantee another peoples vote, then they would attract all the moderates on both sides, and win the election.

 

If the Tories continue on the same path of dilly-dallying instead of implementing their version of Brexit, good or bad - in a GE their traditional voters would back Farage's party as more of a protest.  That would mean a split vote for and against both, and therefore leave the Lib Dems  - providing Labour continues to prevaricate - well in front. 

 

 

If both parties fail to take the opportunity, the Lib Dems would win the GE. On the basis of both the EU elections and current poll trends, if that continues, it's a guaranteed statistical truism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blinkered?? Who? The Lib Dems have as much chance of winning a GE as I have of winning the Thai lottery. 

Edited June 2, 2019 by nauseus

[stephenterry]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Lib Dems have as much chance of winning a GE as I have of winning the Thai lottery. 

A well thought out response, which has no underlying basis for being accurate. Here's a hint. As, Buddha says, please help me out, and buy a ticket.

[bomber]

2 hours ago, yodsak said:

The day before the referendum it was  48.4.  The day after it was 46.6  The day after that it was 47.2

 

25th June 2016 >>>>> 28th June 2016

 

Hit 43 on the 9th of October 2016

 

 

i see you set your graph from 2 days after the vote after the BIG fall....fake news and you've been rumbled,now back to bed and dream up something else

[nauseus]

47 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

A well thought out response, which has no underlying basis for being accurate. Here's a hint. As, Buddha says, please help me out, and buy a ticket.

As much basis and accuracy as your post and your quote.

[nauseus]

50 minutes ago, bomber said:

i see you set your graph from 2 days after the vote after the BIG fall....fake news and you've been rumbled,now back to bed and dream up something else

Nothing wrong with what he has said or posted. Depends on which site you looks at. Look at the marks on the graph x-axis. They are the dates indicated. You must try much harder and stay out of Spoonies. 

Edited June 2, 2019 by nauseus

[evadgib]

Happy for these to be moved if there's a better place for them:

 

 

[adammike]

1 hour ago, stephenterry said:

It is quite clear the value of sterling world-wide has fallen in value. That should be patently obvious even to the blinkered. Relative to other major currencies, whether large or small, it's still lost value, making imports more expensive and causing high street prices to eventually rise when the extra costs cannot be absorbed. 

 

Having said that, the result of the Yougov vote, however much you wish to discount its accuracy, shows a continuing trend to polarisation. And that would continue, make no bones about it.

 

This should concern both Tories and Labour, because, unless a polarised manifesto is presented at a GE, they would continue to lose votes to Brexit and Lib Dems, who have both captured the nation's mood.

 

IMO, the ball is in Labour's hands. They must get off the fence and guarantee another peoples vote, then they would attract all the moderates on both sides, and win the election.

 

If the Tories continue on the same path of dilly-dallying instead of implementing their version of Brexit, good or bad - in a GE their traditional voters would back Farage's party as more of a protest.  That would mean a split vote for and against both, and therefore leave the Lib Dems  - providing Labour continues to prevaricate - well in front. 

 

 

If both parties fail to take the opportunity, the Lib Dems would win the GE. On the basis of both the EU elections and current poll trends, if that continues, it's a guaranteed statistical truism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A couple of points, Labour is between a rock and a hard place, their members are remainers as are their voters in the big metropolitan areas, their other traditional voters are brexiters.I guess like the country it's a 50-50 split,campaign for a referendum they lose votes to the Brexit party campaign for Brexit they lose votes to the Greens and the Lib-dems.

Assuming in a GE no party will get a overall majority there will have to be coalitions and the Lib-dems become a major player and possibly hold the balance power there's no way they are going in with the Brexit party or the Tory's after their last experience.