Baht speculation on downtrend, says central bank governor

By The Nation

 

 

Speculation of the baht has slowed down after the central bank imposed measures to discourage foreign investors form parking their short-term funds in Thailand, said Central Bank Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob at the Bank of Thailand’s Symposium 2019 today. 

 

“Lately, foreign capital flows have turned into negative as funds leave the country,” he said.

 

Slide of local bond yields closer to the level in US has also made Thai bonds less attractive, he said.

 

Fund flows of foreign investors to stock and bond markets are now on the downtrend, he added.

 

His comment came amid exporters’ complaint on the strength of the Thai currency. Some want the baht to stay at Bt32 per dollar.

 

Kasikorn Research Centre reported that the baht weakened to Bt 30.64 per dollar on Friday (September 27) from Bt30.46 on the previous Friday(September 20). It moves around Bt30.60 per dollar today.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30376912

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-09-30

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Keep it going boys, long way to go yet.

Kasikorn Research Centre reported that the baht weakened to Bt 30.64 per dollar on Friday (September 27) from Bt30.46 on the previous Friday(September 20). It moves around Bt30.60 per dollar today.

 

It weakened 0.18 baht in a week, hardly a sign that the flows are receding. That sort of adjustment can be down to anything. Let's wait 6 months before we see if it's worked.

 

 

Edited September 30, 20196 yr by Chelseafan

I'll believe it when I see it..

Any reduction in value of the baht is better than nothing at all.

2 minutes ago, Oztruckie said:

Any reduction in value of the baht is better than nothing at all.

In this case that's only satang ????

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

Baht speculation on downtrend, says central bank governor

The operative word being "speculation". Nothing more than sweet words for the benefit of nervous exporters.

I might "speculate" the economy of Thailand is drifting into an abyss.

35 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

In this case that's only satang ????

Well if it moves in the right direction by only a few satang a day for a few months, then we'll be in a much happier place. So will Thailand's tourism and exports.

Edited September 30, 20196 yr by SteveK

1 hour ago, SteveK said:

Well if it moves in the right direction by only a few satang a day for a few months, then we'll be in a much happier place. So will Thailand's tourism and exports.

I think the damage is done as people book their holidays in advance and contracts that are being replace by more accommodating, stable cheaper countries. Just now Thailand is slipping but it is tarting to gain momentum..... When it crashes it will take a long time to recover... 

interest rate needs dropping as in reality it has never moved .

certainly appears some intent with keeping baht high !

effects on exports and tourism is massive ...
Nobody in the country seeing benefit of price reductions on imports so who the ones gaining, few top elites ...

He wouldn't say it if it wasn't true

3 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Keep it going boys, long way to go yet.

Agree. The harder you party, the stronger is hangover

I want back up to 33.

They want the baht 32 -33 to dollar, Brits Europeans Aussies need there currency 

To make gains on the dollar ie 

                  Dollar 33 baht

                   Pound  1.40 dollar 

Pound would be 33 × 1.4  = 46.2  

  Thais dont care about getting pound or Aussie dollar rates up all exports done in dollars

Simple really

I just checked and Thai baht is as strong as ever. Nothing's changed.

 

 

Edited September 30, 20196 yr by EricTh

1 hour ago, EricTh said:

I just checked and Thai baht is as strong as ever. Nothing's changed.

 

 

What? You are expecting something overnight or really just kidding? Here's the previous 5 Year THB/USD chart from THIS SITE: The real slide (w/r the USD) appears to have happened back in 2017 with a partial recovery in 2018. Very ugly stuff and still not looking good today and the forecast at that site doesn't look good either - 31 THB/USD in one year.

 

Edited September 30, 20196 yr by MaxYakov

Hoping for a massive drop in due course so one can better enjoy tatty Thai beer on holidays without thinking about cost-per-pint. 

I am thinking it might be the too-little, too-late.  There is long-term damage caused by a number of factors and no real signs of wanting to change it.  Manufacturing is changing regionally, partly due to current US policy, but also with the dynamics shifting.  Thailand seems to be too slow on a few of their critical exports to address it properly, from cars to durian.  Tourism is fickle, and many are put off by a variety of factors; eastern Europe and Latin America are growing, and more diverse distribution of tourists elsewhere will have an impact on Thailand long term.  Raw costs is one part of it, but so is the value proposition for the high-end travellers.

Out of control? 

They are starting to count their economic losses now from the tourists not coming and lack of foreign investment. They have bitten the hand that feeds them. 22 Baht for a Canadian Dollar, I just spend less as my silent protest.

All talk and no action, the only way the nationals know how to plan.

It took years to get where it is now and will take many years to recover. expats should plan for 5 years but I think there will be new lows to hit that havnt been seen before

7 hours ago, kevin612 said:

I want back up to 33.

I want 74.9 baht to £1 again same 15 years ago. I hope the backside falls out of the baht

In regard to tourism, the damage has already been done. Sure, a downtick in the baht will help. But, it will make a marginal difference. The big spending Westerners are gone for good, and the rich Chinese and Indians avoid Thailand. For a dozen good reasons having nothing to do with the value of the baht. 

 

Thailand is not the center of the known universe. Until the officials get some humility, and admit their incompetence and mistakes, and start hiring some real talent, nothing will change. The army has been a disaster for tourism, and the nation.  They are deeply despised. From random drug tests, to the scorn and arrogance of immigration, to lack to public safety, to talk of mandatory health insurance, and unwillingness to reign in the scammers and the traffic mayhem, the problems continue.

 

Add in the Phoenix incident and the callous follow up to that, the surly luxury taxes, the lack of selection of high quality alcohol at fair prices, the difficulty of getting around on the roads, the 60 year old train system, the neighbors who are smarter, and trying much harder, plus the ineffective and fabulously corrupt local police franchisees, and you have a prefect storm of declining tourism. That decline will continue for decades to come. 

 

It is not about numbers. The numbers only make things worse. They create more congestion, and bigger crowds, which drive the quality tourists away. And they do not create good revenue for the people. 

Are only the foreigners who speculate with the Baht?
I don't think so, so many rich Thais have learned how to follow the advice of the central bank!

11 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Keep it going boys, long way to go yet.

Yes, if it's all true and correct then a step in the right direction but a long way to go.

11 minutes ago, The Deerhunter said:

Yes, if it's all true and correct then a step in the right direction but a long way to go.

They really need to expedite this, I’ll be back in Thailand next week .

What they need to do is buy more submarines & helicopters!

11 hours ago, Cadbury said:

The operative word being "speculation". Nothing more than sweet words for the benefit of nervous exporters.

I might "speculate" the economy of Thailand is drifting into an abyss.

But you are not the Central Banker of Thailand so your speculation is worth a lot less. ????

Strong Baht means the very rich buy overseas assets and an ensuing economic crash which will then render asset price reductions across the board allowing the very rich to mop up.

 

The very rich here don’t even consider expats or our concerns as we are nothing to them.

So just live and enjoy Thailand and retirement or we <deleted> off.