Thailand Is Down...

[Robski]

Khun ? 5% of the U.S. population pay 70% of the taxes.

I'd like to see where you got that figure.

Edited June 2, 2007 by Robski

[wolfmanjack]

Afraid I agree with Thaigoon. Most of this thread is facile nonsense. Thailand's economy is doing fine - not booming, not tanking. Like all economies, certain sectors are sluggish while others are doing very nicely thank you. To base your judgement of a country's conditions on some of the bizarre anecdotes i see in here is bizarre.

I can only comment on what I see around me. Since I live in Chiang Mai and my businesses are handicrafts and tourist related that is what I can comment on. You are in Bangkok so your best observations would be what is happening in Bangkok. Thaigoon is in the USA so his best observations are ?????

I could dig through the nation and the post but there are so many contradictory articles it isn't even funny. One article on the shrimp exports had a company saying their exports were down so far that they were shifting their production to focus more on the local market. The same article quotes a gov official saying that they don't believe it.

Another article was about one of the largest clothing exporters in thailand closing his factory and going into the real estate business. A poster on this forum says his clothing business is doing great and he is having problems finding good workers.

In defense of JR, the USA bases their unemployment data on how many people are collecting unemployment benefits. If your benefits run out then you are no longer considered unemployed even though you do not have a job. If you had a job that did not pay into the unemployment program then lost that job you would not be collecting benefits therefore would not count as being unemployed also. Thailand does not have such a program so how do they generate their numbers ????????? Agriculture accounts for 50-60% of the labor force. How do they keep track of these labors ???? i know my workers do not pay taxes on the money they make picking rice or longans. Personally i think most of the so called data that is presented by the gov is guesstimates at best.

[bingobongo]

From time to time, the manure I read on here does make me laugh.

it is good you can laugh at yourslef Thaigoon, as most of the manure comes from you

Thaigoon and Bendix live in an alternate reality from the facts, but thats ok.......drinking the kool aid initially is refreshing but can eventually make you sick......this list will grow

Stronger baht - check

Declining oil imports (as of Q1, 2007) - check

Work halted on numerous property developments - check

Declining property sales - check

Banks offering no interest/no closing cost loans for 3 months (Via teaser rates) - check

Furniture sales down - check

Auto sales down (again) - check

Housewares sales down (again) - check

BOT cutting rates to stimulate economy - check

Advertising spending declining - check

Increase in short term speculative inflows - check

Thailand trailing all other economies in region - check

Economy slows on weaker domestic demand - check

Consumer confidence lowest in 5 years - check

Sony, Toshiba, Pioneer (electronics) report lower YOY demand - check

Thai Airways profits slump 31% - check

Thai Gross Domestic Happiness falling - check

Pawn Shop loans increasing – check

Brokerage houses take big hit on lower trade volume – check

Declining motorcycle sales (higher repossessions) – check

AOT profit down 90% - check

BOT chief fired and run by junta – check

Credit card use down – check

IMF voices capital influx concern – check

Listed firms post big Q1fall in earnings – check

Credit bubble deflating – check

Capital controls to remain in place – check

ABAC poll indicates increasing pessimism – check

S&P worries about Thailand slowdown – check

Budget Deficit rising – check

Thais are net sellers of the SET – check

McDonalds (fast food sales) flat/declining – check

Noodle index up (discretionary spending down) – check

Informal debts increase (loan sharks and family members) – check

Product prices increase due to inflation (68% in some cases) – check

Industrial Confidence Index Plunges –check

GDP growth revised downward (again) – check

Merrill Lynch disagrees with BOT on economy –check

Thai GDP slowest in 2 years - check

Edited June 2, 2007 by bingobongo

[wolfmanjack]

Afraid I agree with Thaigoon. Most of this thread is facile nonsense. Thailand's economy is doing fine - not booming, not tanking. Like all economies, certain sectors are sluggish while others are doing very nicely thank you. To base your judgement of a country's conditions on some of the bizarre anecdotes i see in here is bizarre.

while I have no exact figures (And can't be buggered doing a search! )The exports here must be down.If they are not down,then they would be taking a big drop in margins.Exchange rate is too high.

Chukchok,

you are right. Most of the exporters quote fob in US$. The Post had an article saying the exports in US$ were up. But when you take the exchange rate into account the exports in US$ can be up while the exports in baht can be down. Many of the contract orders are placed 6 months in advance. My largest customer only allows me to adjust prices once every 6 months. I know that is their policy for every one and I assume it is common practice for other large companies that can dictate terms to their suppliers. If you price your product with a 10% net profit the exchange rate would have wiped that out completely.

[Khun ?]

OPPS sorry a few % off

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/incometaxand...whopaysmost.htm

Higher income earners pay the most, Treasury says

Feeling overtaxed? Under the U.S. income tax system, most of the taxes collected are supposed to be paid by the people who make the most money. Thanks to President Bush's tax cuts, that is exactly the way the system works, says the U.S. Treasury Department.

According to the Office of Tax Analysis, the U.S. individual income tax is "highly progressive," with a small group of higher-income taxpayers paying most of the individual income taxes each year.

In 2002 the latest year of available data, the top 5 percent of taxpayers paid more than one-half (53.8 percent) of all individual income taxes, but reported roughly one-third (30.6 percent) of income.

The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid 33.7 percent of all individual income taxes in 2002. This group of taxpayers has paid more than 30 percent of individual income taxes since 1995. Moreover, since 1990 this group’s tax share has grown faster than their income share.

Taxpayers who rank in the top 50 percent of taxpayers by income pay virtually all individual income taxes. In all years since 1990, taxpayers in this group have paid over 94 percent of all individual income taxes. In 2000, 2001, and 2002, this group paid over 96 percent of the total.

Treasury Department analysts credit President Bush's tax cuts with shifting a larger share of the individual income taxes paid to higher income taxpayers. In 2005, says the Treasury, when most of the tax cut provisions are fully in effect (e.g., lower tax rates, the $1,000 child credit, marriage penalty relief), the projected tax share for lower-income taxpayers will fall, while the tax share for higher-income taxpayers will rise.

The share of taxes paid by the bottom 50 percent of taxpayers will fall from 4.1 percent to 3.6 percent.

The share of taxes paid by the top 1 percent of taxpayers will rise from 32.3 percent to 33.7 percent.

The average tax rate for the bottom 50 percent of taxpayers falls by 27 percent as compared to a 13 percent decline for taxpayers in the top 1 percent.

The White House has announced it will lobby Congress to pass legislation making most of President Bush's tax cutting measures permanent.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis

[bingobongo]

From time to time, the manure I read on here does make me laugh.

its good that you can laugh at yourslef thaigoon as most of the manure comes from you.

bendix and thiagoon dont appear to live in reality as the list of "economic reality" in thailand continues to grow.....

Stronger baht - check

Declining oil imports (as of Q1, 2007) - check

Work halted on numerous property developments - check<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: #222222; LINE-HEIGHT: 140%; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">

Declining property

[bendix]

Afraid I agree with Thaigoon. Most of this thread is facile nonsense. Thailand's economy is doing fine - not booming, not tanking. Like all economies, certain sectors are sluggish while others are doing very nicely thank you. To base your judgement of a country's conditions on some of the bizarre anecdotes i see in here is bizarre.

while I have no exact figures (And can't be buggered doing a search! )The exports here must be down.If they are not down,then they would be taking a big drop in margins.Exchange rate is too high.

Chukchok,

you are right. Most of the exporters quote fob in US$. The Post had an article saying the exports in US$ were up. But when you take the exchange rate into account the exports in US$ can be up while the exports in baht can be down. Many of the contract orders are placed 6 months in advance. My largest customer only allows me to adjust prices once every 6 months. I know that is their policy for every one and I assume it is common practice for other large companies that can dictate terms to their suppliers. If you price your product with a 10% net profit the exchange rate would have wiped that out completely.

Wrong.

April exports were up over 18% over the same period at over $10billion dollars. This suggests that despite the strong baht, there is still a lot of demand for Thai exports.

As for the big list someone put up - sure, it's easy to find stats and headlines to support one argument. I could just as easily point out high exports, strong baht, the SET at a year high level, and my own firm's record-breaking year (fees collected up 34% year on year) as evidence that there remains a hel_l of a lot of strong economic activity.

I said it before; I'll say it again. Certain parts of the economy are sluggish - other parts are doing ok.

But it's much more popular to be a gloom and doom merchant here, isnt it? People shouldnt look at the empty seats in their beer bar and think the whole country is suffering. It isnt.

Edited June 2, 2007 by bendix

[ThaiGoon]

Wolf, as of 2005 or 2006 I'm not sure, 49% of the work force are in agriculture. It's on the CIA world factbook. And I know the economic situation in Thailand because I talk to my family over the phone at least twice a week.

[wolfmanjack]

Afraid I agree with Thaigoon. Most of this thread is facile nonsense. Thailand's economy is doing fine - not booming, not tanking. Like all economies, certain sectors are sluggish while others are doing very nicely thank you. To base your judgement of a country's conditions on some of the bizarre anecdotes i see in here is bizarre.

while I have no exact figures (And can't be buggered doing a search! )The exports here must be down.If they are not down,then they would be taking a big drop in margins.Exchange rate is too high.

Chukchok,

you are right. Most of the exporters quote fob in US$. The Post had an article saying the exports in US$ were up. But when you take the exchange rate into account the exports in US$ can be up while the exports in baht can be down. Many of the contract orders are placed 6 months in advance. My largest customer only allows me to adjust prices once every 6 months. I know that is their policy for every one and I assume it is common practice for other large companies that can dictate terms to their suppliers. If you price your product with a 10% net profit the exchange rate would have wiped that out completely.

Wrong.

April exports were up over 18% over the same period at over $10billion dollars. This suggests that despite the strong baht, there is still a lot of demand for Thai exports.

As for the big list someone put up - sure, it's easy to find stats and headlines to support one argument. I could just as easily point out high exports, strong baht, the SET at a year high level, and my own firm's record-breaking year (fees collected up 34% year on year) as evidence that there remains a hel_l of a lot of strong economic activity.

I said it before; I'll say it again. Certain parts of the economy are sluggish - other parts are doing ok.

But it's much more popular to be a gloom and doom merchant here, isnt it? People shouldnt look at the empty seats in their beer bar and think the whole country is suffering. It isnt.

Please explain what you are saying is wrong ????

[jackmuu]

Had this discussion last night with Thai and Expat businessmen in various fields. They all agree the economy is suffering, they all agree that now is not the time for investment within Thailand.

[ThaiGoon]

I said it before; I'll say it again. Certain parts of the economy are sluggish - other parts are doing ok.

Yep. Exactly what I heard from my family. Some parts of my family's business are a bit down. Other parts' numbers are comparable to last year's. If anyone wishes for the sky to fall in Thailand like the sad Bingobongo does, they will certainly be bitterly and sorely disappointed.

[jackmuu]

Wolf, as of 2005 or 2006 I'm not sure, 49% of the work force are in agriculture. It's on the CIA world factbook. And I know the economic situation in Thailand because I talk to my family over the phone at least twice a week.

Oh, so you aren't a businessman in Thailand? Shock.

[ThaiGoon]

Had this discussion last night with Thai and Expat businessmen in various fields. They all agree the economy is suffering, they all agree that now is not the time for investment within Thailand.

For some people who were smart enough to invest in SET not long after the huge fall in December, it's been pretty good lately.

[ThaiGoon]

Wolf, as of 2005 or 2006 I'm not sure, 49% of the work force are in agriculture. It's on the CIA world factbook. And I know the economic situation in Thailand because I talk to my family over the phone at least twice a week.

Oh, so you aren't a businessman in Thailand? Shock.

I go to school in the US.

[jackmuu]

Wolf, as of 2005 or 2006 I'm not sure, 49% of the work force are in agriculture. It's on the CIA world factbook. And I know the economic situation in Thailand because I talk to my family over the phone at least twice a week.

Oh, so you aren't a businessman in Thailand? Shock.

I go to school in the US.

Nuff said.

[ThaiGoon]

Nuff said.

Try asking what Bingobongo does for a living. I'm sure it will be very easy to understand why he's been posting the way he has.

[wolfmanjack]

Wolf, as of 2005 or 2006 I'm not sure, 49% of the work force are in agriculture. It's on the CIA world factbook. And I know the economic situation in Thailand because I talk to my family over the phone at least twice a week.

Thank you for letting us know how you keep abreast of the situation in thailand. I see on your other post that they also have a business here. Can you share with us where it is located ?

As far as the 49% of the workforce is in agriculture I was asking how the thai gov or the CIA world fact book gathers this information ? I really would like to know for my own education.

Please keep in mind that my my observations are on the tourist in chiang mai and the handicrafts industry which relies at least partially on tourist both thai and foreign. I believe the original post was about tourist numbers not other economic activity. The thailand in crisis is the thread for the other sectors.

My comments about articles in the B Post was just an example of how articles in the Post give contradictory information.

[wolfmanjack]

I said it before; I'll say it again. Certain parts of the economy are sluggish - other parts are doing ok.

Yep. Exactly what I heard from my family. Some parts of my family's business are a bit down. Other parts' numbers are comparable to last year's. If anyone wishes for the sky to fall in Thailand like the sad Bingobongo does, they will certainly be bitterly and sorely disappointed.

So based on this information would it be correct that the bottom line is down ???

By the way I do not want the sky to fall here. I invested almost all of my money in thailand trying to build up a business and make a life for my family. Sure I would like the baht to be 40 to the $ and would like to see 20 million tourist a year here. My business would boom and so would my wife's families.

Edited June 2, 2007 by wolfmanjack

[ThaiGoon]

As far as the 49% of the workforce is in agriculture I was asking how the thai gov or the CIA world fact book gathers this information ? I really would like to know for my own education.

And where did you get your 50-60% figure from? You had your own research team to conduct a thorough study unlike Thailand's finance ministry or BoT?

[ThaiGoon]

I said it before; I'll say it again. Certain parts of the economy are sluggish - other parts are doing ok.

Yep. Exactly what I heard from my family. Some parts of my family's business are a bit down. Other parts' numbers are comparable to last year's. If anyone wishes for the sky to fall in Thailand like the sad Bingobongo does, they will certainly be bitterly and sorely disappointed.

So based on this information would it be correct that the bottom line is down ???

I'm not arguing that it's not down. But I'm saying it's not as bad as some on here want everyone to believe. Plus it will definitely get better soon (either in next quarter or the quarter after.) Try reading what I've posted a bit earlier in this thread.

[wolfmanjack]

As far as the 49% of the workforce is in agriculture I was asking how the thai gov or the CIA world fact book gathers this information ? I really would like to know for my own education.

And where did you get your 50-60% figure from? You had your own research team to conduct a thorough study unlike Thailand's finance ministry or BoT?

Ummmmm I couldn't remember what the figure was so i threw in a spread. Roll your eyes all you want but 50% is only 1 % higher than the 49% you quoted. I am sure that if I wanted to take the time I could find a stat somewhere for some year that puts it in the 50-560% range. Any way the fact is that 1% is nothing to be busting my balls over.

Please answer the question if you know the answer. Where do these figures come from ????

[ThaiGoon]

Ummmmm I couldn't remember what the figure was so i threw in a spread. Roll your eyes all you want but 50% is only 1 % higher than the 49% you quoted. I am sure that if I wanted to take the time I could find a stat somewhere for some year that puts it in the 50-560% range. Any way the fact is that 1% is nothing to be busting my balls over.

Please answer the question if you know the answer. Where do these figures come from ????

If 1% difference was nothing to you, why did you have to keep asking where they come from? Anyway, I'm sure when Thai officials collect tax revenues or do a national census , they could draw some sort of figures from their data.

Edited June 2, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Dakhar]

He gets the figures when he call his mummy....

BTW who calls nowadays? I use MSN/Skype etc.... except when it rains, that is.

[ThaiGoon]

He gets the figures when he call his mummy....

BTW who calls nowadays? I use MSN/Skype etc.... except when it rains, that is.

You always have your laptop with you anywhere you go? And WLAN is always availabale everywhere?

By the way, I think the BoI is still waiting for your application to build the marina on the piece of land that you bought for $30K.

[Dakhar]

Actually I do have my Lap top with me, or my wife's or the other 2 kicking around in the trunk of the car.... we try to stay connected, and yes we are wired through the cell phones too

But when it rains here in this beautiful country.... everything goes to pot.... you want to knock out the communication systems of Thailand? Ehhh, just wait until it rains.....

school boy, I told you already that land is waiting for you to scrape up 10 years of savings, and it is yours... for me, I'd just pick through the lint in my pockets and discover the money in there....

[ThaiGoon]

[wolfmanjack]

Ummmmm I couldn't remember what the figure was so i threw in a spread. Roll your eyes all you want but 50% is only 1 % higher than the 49% you quoted. I am sure that if I wanted to take the time I could find a stat somewhere for some year that puts it in the 50-560% range. Any way the fact is that 1% is nothing to be busting my balls over.

Please answer the question if you know the answer. Where do these figures come from ????

If 1% difference was nothing to you, why did you have to keep asking where they come from? Anyway, I'm sure when Thai officials collect tax revenues or do a national census , they could draw some sort of figures from their data.

1. If 1% was important to me I would have taken the time to look up some numbers.

2. If 1% was important to me I would not have used a 10 % spread.

3. The number was for illustrative purposes only so that I could ask the question how these numbers are generated.

i just checked out the National Statistics Office of Thailand website. It says they have been doing statistical surveys every quarter since 1963. they have a spread sheet that shows every quarter from 2001 to Q2 of 2006. I am including the fishing sector in the agriculture since they do so on their spread sheet. Q1 of 2006 was 35.8% and Q2 of 2006 was 38.6%. These numbers are a lot more than 1% off of what you quoted. The highest rate they quote is Q3 2001 of 46%.

This is from the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs website . Roughly 60% of Thailand's labor force is employed in agriculture. So how can I be raked over the coals by you for using a spread from the top of my head when the data from official sources varies greatly.

[georgebkk]

...

McDonalds (fast food sales) flat/declining – check

...

This is actually a positive (for Thai health, that is...)

[LaoPo]

This is from the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs website . Roughly 60% of Thailand's labor force is employed in agriculture. So how can I be raked over the coals by you for using a spread from the top of my head when the data from official sources varies greatly.

The facts from this source and the CIA differ 11% -between the CIA's 49% and 60% labor force rates (below)- and that's quite big.

But, whatever, even 49% of the labor force in agriculture is huge.

Apart from that, Thailand is still suffering with a high rate of people BELOW the poverty line (officially that is) of 10% but the actual % is probably much higher, also because -illegal- immigrants from neighbouring countries are not accounted for.

But, 10% would still account for some 6.5 million people...

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2814.htm#econ

LaoPo

[Dakhar]

Ummmmm I couldn't remember what the figure was so i threw in a spread. Roll your eyes all you want but 50% is only 1 % higher than the 49% you quoted. I am sure that if I wanted to take the time I could find a stat somewhere for some year that puts it in the 50-560% range. Any way the fact is that 1% is nothing to be busting my balls over.

Please answer the question if you know the answer. Where do these figures come from ????

If 1% difference was nothing to you, why did you have to keep asking where they come from? Anyway, I'm sure when Thai officials collect tax revenues or do a national census , they could draw some sort of figures from their data.

1. If 1% was important to me I would have taken the time to look up some numbers.

2. If 1% was important to me I would not have used a 10 % spread.

3. The number was for illustrative purposes only so that I could ask the question how these numbers are generated.

i just checked out the National Statistics Office of Thailand website. It says they have been doing statistical surveys every quarter since 1963. they have a spread sheet that shows every quarter from 2001 to Q2 of 2006. I am including the fishing sector in the agriculture since they do so on their spread sheet. Q1 of 2006 was 35.8% and Q2 of 2006 was 38.6%. These numbers are a lot more than 1% off of what you quoted. The highest rate they quote is Q3 2001 of 46%.

This is from the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs website . Roughly 60% of Thailand's labor force is employed in agriculture. So how can I be raked over the coals by you for using a spread from the top of my head when the data from official sources varies greatly.

Raked over the coals....

WMJ,

Consider the source, nuff said? Don't sweat the SMALL stuff.