Private investment, exports expected to drive growth next year

By The Nation

 

Economic indicators in November pointed to an economic slowdown.

 

Economic indicators in November pointed to an economic slowdown, but private investment and exports are expected to be the growth drivers next year, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.

 

Overall household consumption grew during the month, pushing up the government’s value added tax collection by 3.7 per cent, said Wuthipong Chittangsakul, deputy of director general of the Fiscal Policy Office, on Thursday (December 26).

 

Real income of farmers rose by 1.8 per cent year on year. However, consumers remained cautious on spending as evidenced by a 16.4 per cent plunge in new car sales and 6.8 per cent fall in registrations of new motorcycles. The Consumer Confidence index dropped to 57.9 in November amid consumers' concerns on falling exports and the global economic slowdown.

 

Private investment remained weak as seen in the 11.2 per cent drop in machinery imports. Commercial car sales plunged 16.1 per cent as the collection of property transaction taxes fell 6.3 per cent. Cement sales decreased 2.2 per cent while the construction material price index dropped 3.1 per cent year on year due to the declining prices of steel and steel products.

 

The Fiscal Policy Office, however, predicted that private investment would expand 4.6 per cent next year as government spending on infrastructure projects will attract private investment.

 

Thailand’s exports in dollar term fell 7.4 per cent while imports plunged 13.8 per cent, resulting in trade surplus of US$ 548.8 million.

 

However, an easing of trade tensions is expected to boost the global economy next year, following the Phase One trade agreement between US and China. Based on this assumption, the Fiscal Policy Office predicted exports next year will rise 2.6 per cent, compared to an estimated contraction of 2.5 per cent this year, Wuthipong said. 

 

In November, the tourism sector remained on the path of expansion with the number of tourist arrivals up 5.9 per cent to 3.36 million, largely due to a 18.3 per cent increase in Chinese tourists. The numbers of Travellers from Taiwan, India and Russia also rose.

 

Total revenue from foreign tourists' spending is estimated at Bt166.9 billion this year, up 3 per cent year on year.

 

Agricultural production fell 2.7 per cent in November and industrial production index dropped 8.3 per cent to 96.8 compared to November last year. 

However, the Thai Industries sentiment index rose to 92.3 due to rising orders.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30379884

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-12-27

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

Only part of that chart that is believable is tax increases. The rest including tourists are nose diving stats.

99.9% of those statistics are correct. However there is 0% chance that tourism will increase by 5.9% The 0.1 percent that might be incorrect is to allow for the fact that 100% of statistics have a margin of error.

From 7.4% exports can be expected to fall a lot more due to the continuing strong baht so there is more than a 50% chance that the economy will go pear shaped next year.

So why is Thailand the only country that seems to have economic problems due to a trade war?

And why didn’t the agency’s report mention the grossly overpriced Baht?  Perhaps they’re forbidden to even mention it as a contributing factor.

 

i Feel Thailand is in trouble, but somehow they have a lot of good news. Is this real?

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Economic indicators in November pointed to an economic slowdown, but private investment and exports are expected to be the growth drivers next year

Six (VAT is not an economic indicator and year-end increase is a seasonal distortion) of seven economic indicators report contraction. For that matter Tourism is being measured by numbers of people and not by value that makes its inclusion for comparison purposes inappropriate.

For what is presented, there's no evidence for predicting expansion of private investment (with the exception of China state-owned enterprises joining Thailand companies in joint ventures wherein china state-owned companies provide project capital).

It's notable that the Prayut regime reached a record low of -17.60 percent in April of 2017 for private investment. By inspection it appears that the average percent of private investment from 2018-current was Zero.

It's hard to ignore the history of private investment shortcomings under this administration, much less believe history will reverse itself.

Great expectations for 2020????

 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Six (VAT is not an economic indicator and year-end increase is a seasonal distortion) of seven economic indicators report contraction. For that matter Tourism is being measured by numbers of people and not by value that makes its inclusion for comparison purposes inappropriate.

For what is presented, there's no evidence for predicting expansion of private investment (with the exception of China state-owned enterprises joining Thailand companies in joint ventures wherein china state-owned companies provide project capital).

It's notable that the Prayut regime reached a record low of -17.60 percent in April of 2017 for private investment. By inspection it appears that the average percent of private investment from 2018-current was Zero.

It's hard to ignore the history of private investment shortcomings under this administration, much less believe history will reverse itself.

 

I totally agree, I only see a very important rise in the cost of living.

 

 

Love the way "The Fiscal Policy Office" (whatever that might be in reality) "expects" private investment and exports to abracadabra it all next year... in the nick of time, of course. Private investment won't do squat unless it's in their favour and there are good pickings to be made plus exports won't suddenly recover whilst the horrible exchange rate continues. Need to wake up and smell the coffee... cannot keep releasing fake news statements about how rosy it is going to continually be just around the corner.

 

You know what these are below... if you do Fiscal Policy Office, then you need to take them off (I couldn't find the Smirnoff ad one with one side of the glasses that were rose tinted and you could see a beautiful woman through it and on the other side was the opposite with no glasses). 

 

 

Edited December 27, 20196 yr by Brigand
Typos

I’ve been reading doom and gloom predictions about Thailand’s economy since the day I joined TV and yet the Thai baht is one of the best performing currencies in the world and Thailand enjoys a trade surplus that many western countries would love to have. 
Conclusion: lots of TVF posters have no clue

On 12/27/2019 at 4:42 AM, webfact said:

Real income of farmers rose by 1.8 per cent year on year.

Really?  And how does that measly 1.8% compare with Thailand's long-term spiraling inflation that's hurting all of us?  And, yes, especially hurting poor farmers.

Tourism is a form of export.

Why is it only export on this chart that is not dropping sharply?

Could it possibly be because tourism is the only industry governed by those stolid truth-seekers at T.A.T?

And are those increased VAT receipts, the only other indicator predicted to rise, based upon the predicted rise in tourism?

 

 

Edited December 28, 20196 yr by donnacha