Thailand Moves Closer to Making It Onto U.S. Currency Watchlist

By Michelle Jamrisko

 

++ Surplus with U.S. passes $20 billion in year through November

++ Thailand already cited by Treasury for current account surplus

 

Thailand’s 12-month trade surplus with the U.S. exceeded $20 billion, increasing its chance of being included on the U.S. Treasury’s watchlist of currency manipulators.

 

The surplus reached $20.05 billion in the 12 months through November, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Monday in Washington. That exceeds the $20 billion limit the U.S. Treasury has set for bilateral goods trade deficits, and means Thailand now violates two of the three criteria the Treasury uses to add a country to the watchlist.

 

The latest development increases scrutiny on Thailand’s currency policy at a time when officials are scrambling to rein in the baht’s almost 6% gain against the dollar over the past year, the fastest appreciation among major Asian currencies. The U.S. is Thailand’s third-biggest trading partner, with total trade of $47 billion in 2018.

 

The U.S. Treasury publishes a twice-yearly report designating countries of concern for currency manipulation if it meets two of three criteria:

• a trade surplus with the U.S. of at least $20 billion
• a current-account surplus of at least 2% of gross domestic product
• persistent, one-sided intervention in the currency equivalent to 2% of GDP in six months of a year

 

Full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-08/thailand-s-rising-trade-surplus-with-u-s-exceeds-treasury-limit

 

-- Bloomberg 2020-01-08

 

Let the game begin, this will be nice to watch. I wonder how quick BOT reacts.

Nail 'em.  Make them import more bourbon, wine and cheese

17 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Nail 'em.  Make them import more bourbon, wine and cheese

I'd settle for some cornbread mix, jalapenos, and a few other American food goods I used to be able to get--until something happened in 2014

25 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

cheese

What?  In aerosol cans????

Edited January 8, 20206 yr by VocalNeal

Hum, looks like there has been currency manipulation taking place.

Reactions should be interesting.

5 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

What?  In aerosol cans????

Sure thing! A nice glass of 2010 Screaming Eagle Cabernet Sauvignon, topped off with some Cheeze Whiz. Yum.

35 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

What?  In aerosol cans????

Yeah but its very hard to slice I need a hacksaw.

The funds of the VIP's,of Thailand will be flowing out of the

country before any check on the THB is made,ready to repatriate

it back again when/if the THB goes down,with a nice profit for them.

regards worgeordie

we all knew that Thailand was manipulating the currency, this just proves it. Lets see what actions take place now within BOT, this just shows they were being very miss leading in the reasons the baht was appreciating and what they were doing about it

Edited January 8, 20206 yr by seajae

Pesky farang again 

Some good news at last. Make them suffer

3 hours ago, yellowboat said:

Nail 'em.  Make them import more bourbon, wine and cheese

Minus the "luxury tax" 

3 hours ago, yellowboat said:

Nail 'em.  Make them import more bourbon, wine and cheese

Better yet, allow Amazon to enter the market with US goods. Would obliterate Thai shops.

4 hours ago, zydeco said:

I'd settle for some cornbread mix, jalapenos, and a few other American food goods I used to be able to get--until something happened in 2014

Yeah this corn flower they sell ain't worth a <deleted> for frying okra or green tomatoes

Oh my, a really elected honest thai junta controlled government doing something corrupt? Is that even possible?

You have this, us trade preferences ending, losses on the Aussie gold mine arbitration, Chevron suit, and Phillip Morris along with loss of tourism, pollution and immigration issues, no water, a dead education system, housing/condo bubble-there are big bills to pay coming up.  It’s not looking good ????

9 hours ago, seajae said:

we all knew that Thailand was manipulating the currency, this just proves it. Lets see what actions take place now within BOT, this just shows they were being very miss leading in the reasons the baht was appreciating and what they were doing about it

I hate to rain on everyone’s parade, but most likely this will put pressure on BOT to NOT let the baht depreciate against other currencies. If the baht is cheap then it favors exports, not imports. A higher value to the the baht means they are more likely to be able to afford American goods. BOT will have to decide if they want tourists (1/5th the economy) or local manufacturing jobs more. Based on the whole Thailand 3.0 thing or whatever’s it was called most likely they will sacrifice tourists. The rise in the baht was probably in anticipation of this move. Smart money is always 6 months ahead of the rest of us. We might see the baht break the 28 to 1 USD mark. 

12 hours ago, zydeco said:

I'd settle for some cornbread mix, jalapenos, and a few other American food goods I used to be able to get--until something happened in 2014

I know it's French, but the Casino brand is non existent in Big C nowadays too.

It made me laugh when they took it most of it off the shelves citing quality control!!

Each item had to be reassessed to pass the stringent Thai FDA regs.

Most still remains unavailable

11 hours ago, seajae said:

we all knew that Thailand was manipulating the currency, this just proves it. Lets see what actions take place now within BOT, this just shows they were being very miss leading in the reasons the baht was appreciating and what they were doing about it

The US don't mind the baht increasing, this is about the trade surplus.

I'm surprised they and the EU haven't hammered them a long time ago about this tbf.

The tax on most imported goods is obscene

9 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Better yet, allow Amazon to enter the market with US goods. Would obliterate Thai shops.

It would wipe the floor with the very sloppy Lazada

12 minutes ago, Sticky Wicket said:

It would wipe the floor with the very sloppy Lazada

What? Someone doesn't like the 30 billion chinese "products" in lazada? ????

1 minute ago, jabis said:

What? Someone doesn't like the 30 billion chinese "products" in lazada? ????

The search engine is dreadful, so many duplicates!

It needs a complete overhaul as it's grown too fast too quickly 

Leave to the liberal media, Bloomberg, to insinuate the Baht’s gone too low this week.

BTW, you can add some Napa Valley Cabernets, NY strip sirloins, Dunkin Doughnuts coffee and some molasses to my wish list.

3 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

It would wipe the floor with the very sloppy Lazada

Aliexpress is a good place to buy if your not in a hurry to receive the item....or if you are you can pay extra and get it quick.  I've used Lazada (owned by Alibaba!) about 20 times and in the same period Aliexpress 82 times.  Never had to pay import duty from China with Aliexpress and most products are as described and work as intended.  About 2 weeks ago I got a CCTV kit with 4 cams, a hard drive fitted NVR plus accessories and I though for sure I'd get a bill for import duty....but no!  Saving 5000+ over the Thai price made me happy.

3 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

I know it's French, but the Casino brand is non existent in Big C nowadays too.

It made me laugh when they took it most of it off the shelves citing quality control!!

Each item had to be reassessed to pass the stringent Thai FDA regs.

Most still remains unavailable

Five years ago, Bob's Red Mill Yellow Cornbread Mix was in Tops. Haven't seen it in a long time. Last time I got it was in Singapore. This applies to the overall point that American goods across the board have seen reduced availability on Thai shelves. So of course there is an increasing trade imbalance when Thailand keeps American products out and they can't be bought at any price. 

4 minutes ago, zydeco said:

Five years ago, Bob's Red Mill Yellow Cornbread Mix was in Tops. Haven't seen it in a long time. Last time I got it was in Singapore. This applies to the overall point that American goods across the board have seen reduced availability on Thai shelves. So of course there is an increasing trade imbalance when Thailand keeps American products out and they can't be bought at any price. 

Same with Makro, all the good stuff out and CP regurgitated mechanically separated slops in

I have suspected Thailand began manipulating currency as far back as 2010.......I would love harsh measures to rectify this... but they are sitting on Gold reserves as well as Hundreds of Billions of US dollar reserves. . not easy to topple..????????

9 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Leave to the liberal media, Bloomberg, to insinuate the Baht’s gone too low this week.

BTW, you can add some Napa Valley Cabernets, NY strip sirloins, Dunkin Doughnuts coffee and some molasses to my wish list.

I saw some US prime rib in a store in Pattaya a year ago over 3000 baht for 2 kilos l like steak but not that much ????

On 1/8/2020 at 3:01 PM, yellowboat said:

Nail 'em.  Make them import more bourbon, wine and cheese

well said. Especially the cheese! I been surviving on 25BHT Ham& Cheeze at 7-11 for my dailee cheeze fix. (spelling errorz on purrpose haha)