Panel mulls darker outlook due to virus

By THE NATION

 

Kalin Sarasin

 

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has considered lowering its forecast for economic growth this year due to the impact of the coronavirus, Thai Chamber of Commerce president Kalin Sarasin said this week.

 

The forecast currently stands at 2.5-3 per cent.

 

But Kalin believes Chinese travellers will be back to Thailand once the virus outbreak that originated in central Wuhan is contained.

 

Speaking at a separate event on Wednesday (January 29), Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak said he wants the Finance Ministry to seek measures to encourage Thais to travel to offset the plunge in Chinese visitors due to the outbreak. He said it was one possible way of cushioning the blow to the Thai economy.

 

The Council of the Economic Ministers will discuss the virus’ impact on tourism on January 31, said Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general for political affairs to the prime minister.

 

They will also consider a private-sector proposal that tourism-related businesses be allowed to postpone their tax payment by six months, he said.

 

Thanawat Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, earlier predictedthat the coronavirus outbreak, if it continues into March, could cost the Thai tourism industry between Bt80 billion and Bt100 billion, or between 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points of national GDP.

He based his calculation on one million Chinese arrivals in Thailand per month, each person spending on average Bt50,000.

 

The virus has collapsed arrival numbers since the Chinese government banned overseas group tours and is hurting airlines, hotels and resorts and souvenir sales.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381234?utm_source=homepage_hilight&utm_medium=internal_referral

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-01-30

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If the nCOV2019 is anything like the 2003 SARS event, it will be over a year before the virus clears out. Might be until next Chinese New Year before things can get back to normal. 

2 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

If the nCOV2019 is anything like the 2003 SARS event, it will be over a year before the virus clears out. Might be until next Chinese New Year before things can get back to normal. 

Here is to hoping you are wrong. 12 Months would cause a lot of damage around the world. 

How can it be contained if several countries have already evacuated expats from Wuhan

ok as far as I know the UK will quarantine them for 2 weeks but what about other countries 

Surely the only way to contain it would keep everyone in the same place and if anyone needed special medication  take it to them

It seems the cat is out of the bag already

The missus has said she doesn't fancy going back to Thailand on an aircraft with a couple of hundred other people this year so it looks like a few UK holidays are on the cards

This is the end for the Thai tourism industry this year.

 

Their problem is that they rely too heavily on the Chinese, and even if they do come back in numbers, theh will keep other visitors away.

 

This is going to bite deep and hard and I don't think they are really prepared for what is to come.

After the crushing of the 0 baht tours and then hotels, restaurants and other attractions saying the government drove away all the tourists, it is really hard to take these lazy, well dressed mouth pieces serious.  Rely on one thing, and you will get let down one day.  That day is today, and it will happen again as it did with SARS.  

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has considered lowering its forecast for economic growth this year due to the impact of the coronavirus, Thai Chamber of Commerce president Kalin Sarasin said this week.

Only 'Considered lowering forecast' ? This guy a secret TAT agent ? 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

They will also consider a private-sector proposal that tourism-related businesses be allowed to postpone their tax payment by six months

As tourism accounts for as much as 17% GDP and the government relies on tax revenue collection to sustain in part its budget allotments, delaying tax payments by six months must be accompanied by delay in government spending. Or take more government debt that would likely require an amendment to the FY 2020 budget bill (Oct. 1, 2019-Sept. 30, 2020).

 

Furthermore, if the postponement of tax payments is allowed for the tourism-related businesses, other private sectors perceiving economic damage from the disease might make the same request. Tax Code cannot "waffle" at a moment's notice and remain a stable source of revenue to a government, especially when many economic stimuli are in effect!

 

The government needs to take a calm and broad view of how it can mitigate the potential national economic impact of this disease. For example, as the disease originated in China, Thailand might justify DELAYING its payments to China for military hardware being paid by the FY 2020 budget for the next six months.

at my local bar, the big boss, has virtually ordered all staff not to venture into Pattaya and especially Walking Street,  says he not want virus brought back to his bar. so its panic stations here already

So fewer Chinese tourists—and a weaker Baht vs USD?  Do we have a correlation here?  Somehow, when we had millions coming here—the Baht/USD skyrocketed. And now Yuan down.  

Let’s play it safe—send all Chinese tourists back, and see what happens...

The joint standing committee will need its mouth washing out when TAT announces a customary 9% increase in tourist numbers by April????

1 hour ago, mercman24 said:

at my local bar, the big boss, has virtually ordered all staff not to venture into Pattaya and especially Walking Street,  says he not want virus brought back to his bar. so its panic stations here already

5555 all those freelancers on WS, boss will never know till he gets it

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

So fewer Chinese tourists—and a weaker Baht vs USD?  Do we have a correlation here?  Somehow, when we had millions coming here—the Baht/USD skyrocketed. And now Yuan down.  

Let’s play it safe—send all Chinese tourists back, and see what happens...

Dollar UP to 31.30 today, doing Well

Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak said he wants the Finance Ministry to seek measures to encourage Thais to travel to offset the plunge in Chinese visitors due to the outbreak.

 

Well as things look right now, I doubt any Thai would want to leave their home in 2-3 weeks time, as their will most likely be uncontrollable outbreaks here.

 

 

 

 

Whatever he or anyone else says TAT will be along shortly with forecasts of multi millions of visitors being on their way from new sources...Gypsy's, Eskimo's, Native Red Indians, Zulu's, Puerto Ricans, Falkland Islander's and Penguins to make up the numbers and naturally they will all spend a lot more than the Chinese ever did !   Are they really too dumb to understand that NOBODY from anywhere wants to visit South East Asia while this is going on ?

 

They make me laugh when they say 'The Chinese will be back as soon as it's over' as if it's a cast iron guarantee that they will flood back in within a few days; well, sorry you Goon but the World don't work like that !

6 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

So fewer Chinese tourists—and a weaker Baht vs USD?  Do we have a correlation here?

Yes, both make me happy, correlation 1.0

10 hours ago, Yadon Toploy said:

Their problem is that they rely too heavily on the Chinese, and even if they do come back in numbers, theh will keep other visitors away.

They don't care. This is clear. They have absolutely no intention of reevaluating their overdependency on China for just about everything.

5 hours ago, Ireland32 said:

Dollar UP to 31.30 today, doing Well

At Kasikorn bank the GBP was 39.75765 yesterday morning and up to 40.07787 this morning and 40.13365 at 5:13 pm this afternoon.

Money money money money 

 

It’s all they ever talk about.

 

 

Here’s a new and promising group of potential tourists for TAT:  illegal aliens from the USA.  The recent Supreme Court ruling makes it quite difficult to receive public assistance for them.  And they can easily adapt to a tropical climate.  And they also seem to enjoy Corona beer...

19 minutes ago, zydeco said:

They don't care. This is clear. They have absolutely no intention of reevaluating their overdependency on China for just about everything.

For obvious reason. Communist countries don't care if a country is run by military usurpers, whatever as long as they get a free run.

It is over (mass tourism). No amount of central planning, stimuli, tinkering with visa regulations and so on will have any effect. Over the last five years they have used central planning and direction, allied to their institutional xenephobia to discourage tourists from the traditional sources, bet extensively on the Chinese mass market, and now this is the rabbit punch which will collapse the whole industry.

 

No-one, but no-one, Western, Asian, Chinese or Indian is going to come to Thailand, the risk of catching the virus is perceived as too great, and the government is obviously and clearly already manipulating the reports of it's presence here.

 

It's over. Another triumph for the chosen ones...

They got seduced by the Chinese yuan and forgot that old adage - don't put all your eggs in one basket. It really is a double whammy, not only are the Chinese not coming, but the potential risk they brought with them when they did come is most likely deterring other tourists. I'll wait a couple of weeks (the incubation period) before passing judgement, maybe the virus won't take off here, they still might be able to salvage something from the wreckage, I suppose. Anyway, should the virus take off here exponentially, Thais'll have a lot more to worry about than lost tourism revenue.