British car production falls at quickest pace since recession

[nkg]

31 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Because it shows just what a weak position UK car manufacturing is in relative to the EU.

You go on about BMW selling units in the UK as if the EU must bend to your will but the reality is UK car production needs access to the EU far more than the EU does to the UK.

The entire premise for your argument is flawed.

Germany export $19.8B of cars to the UK and import only $3.4B. The UK's biggest export markets by value are the US and China.

 

Given Germany's dominant position within the EU, you can expect them to act in the interests of their own country and the 830,000 German jobs that are on the line. When it comes to car tariffs, the Germans will ensure favourable terms for both the UK and the EU.

 

Exports

United States: US$8.6 billion (Down -0.7% since 2016)
China: $5.4 billion (Up 17.1%)
Germany: $3.4 billion (Up 4.5%)
 

Imports

Germany: US$19.8 billion (Down -3.1% since 2016)
Belgium: $6.9 billion (Down -4.2%)
Spain: $3.9 billion (Down -14.2%)
 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by nkg
Brexit

[Rookiescot]

58 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

 

Germany export $19.8B of cars to the UK and import only $3.4B. The UK's biggest export markets by value are the US and China.

 

Given Germany's dominant position within the EU, you can expect them to act in the interests of their own country and the 830,000 German jobs that are on the line. When it comes to car tariffs, the Germans will ensure favourable terms for both the UK and the EU.

 

Exports

United States: US$8.6 billion (Down -0.7% since 2016)
China: $5.4 billion (Up 17.1%)
Germany: $3.4 billion (Up 4.5%)
 

Imports

Germany: US$19.8 billion (Down -3.1% since 2016)
Belgium: $6.9 billion (Down -4.2%)
Spain: $3.9 billion (Down -14.2%)
 

 

You see this is where you are going wrong. You cannot single out Germany because Germany is within a trading block called the EU.

Now give us the comparative figures for the UK and for the EU.

[samran]

1 hour ago, steve187 said:

 

In 2017, The United Kingdom produced 1.75 million motor vehicles, exporting 800,000 of these within the European Union. 80% of the UK’s car production is exported.

 

1 hour ago, nkg said:

 

When it comes to car tariffs, the Germans will ensure favourable terms for both the UK and the EU.

 

 

So the UK voted to leave, and as a consequence gets a 10% duty whacked on their auto exports as a result.

 

But I thought the whole point of the exercise was to ‘take back control’ and to reassert ‘sovereignty’.

 

And yet here are are, relying on the Germans to do the the British a favour. 
 

The irony, as they say, is exquisite...

Edited January 31, 2020 by samran

[nkg]

8 minutes ago, samran said:

So the UK voted to leave, and as a consequence gets a 10% duty whacked on their auto exports as a result.

 

But I thought the whole point of the exercise was to ‘take back control’ and to reassert ‘sovereignty’.

 

And yet here are are, relying on the Germans to do the the British a favour. 
 

The irony, as they say, is exquisite...

 

Negotiating a trade deal is hardly "relying on the Germans to do the the British a favour."

 

Since you are gloating, why don't you tell me how many billions of dollars worth of cars Australia exports every year? You are gleefully mocking the British car industry, but back home you neither make nor export any cars. You don't have much to boast about.

 

You have a strange obsession with the UK and Brexit. Is there so little to talk about in your own country?

[samran]

2 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

Negotiating a trade deal is hardly "relying on the Germans to do the the British a favour."

 

Since you are gloating, why don't you tell me how many billions of dollars worth of cars Australia exports every year? You are gleefully mocking the British car industry, but back home you neither make nor export any cars. You don't have much to boast about.

 

You have a strange obsession with the UK and Brexit. Is there so little to talk about in your own country?

Here we go. The thin skinned tough guy comes out. ‘Where is your car industry?’ As if I care. 
 

Funny and sad to watch at the same time you blokes...

 

Australia has no car industry. It died an unceremonious death a few years back. It has been on life support since the early 1980s with all sorts of industry assistance packages until someone pointed out that it was essentially adding a couple of thousand dollars per vehicle to the sale price. It would have been cheaper for the government to simply pay the workers their salary for the rest of their life as opposed to bailing out the auto companies.

 

So now we import 100% of our vehicles. And cars are now cheaper for all of us.

 

The car companies have consolidated. It wasn’t worth having factories in Australia, so now we get a lot of our vehicles from Thailand and Japan which have factories of a scale not worth doing in Australia.

 

The car companies are global players, they go where they can produce the most cars for the least amount of money. 
 

If you’ve voted to tear up a world class seamless trade deal to essentially stick 10% on your exports to the EU, well you now need to live with the consequences. 
 

No gloating here. Just laying out the calculus that you now face. 
 

 

[Bluespunk]

On 1/30/2020 at 4:25 AM, webfact said:

British car output dropped last year at the fastest rate since the 2008-9 recession, hit by slumping exports and diesel demand, as an industry body called for an ambitious post-Brexit trade deal to protect the sector.

Dream on

[samran]

42 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

Negotiating a trade deal is hardly "relying on the Germans to do the the British a favour."

 

 

Hmmm,

 

Lets do a little exercise to see where each governments interests lie on this one. Shall we?

 

The UK is concerned about post hard brexit price increases. So they will be levying ZERO tariffs on autos coming into the UK from the EU. This has been stated and published.

 

We know the EU will automatically levy a 10% impost on cars from the UK upon a hard brexit.

 

This will make UK produced cars more expensive in the EU. Other things being equal, it makes sense to produce them somewhere within the trading bloc so they don't incur the 10%.

 

Now, because of this self inflicted 10% cost impost, if there is a chance the German government can get these British jobs moved to Germany, with associated investment and NEW jobs for GERMAN workers to go along with it, how hard do you think the Germans are going to fight for what you quaintly call 'favourable terms for both the UK and the EU'.

 

Hmmm. German government.....German jobs and investment vs British jobs and investment.....hmmm, lets see. You are out of the bloc now...'out' as you love to say, means 'out'....

 

Lots more jobs in Germany. They still get to sell the same cars in the UK.

 

Now, I did say 'other things being equal' earlier. It may be the case that the continental desire for jellied eels, morris dancers and free movement of hooligans means that some things are traded off by the germans so that the car industry in the UK gets a bit of a leg up, but for that we will have to wait and see...

[Rookiescot]

47 minutes ago, samran said:

Here we go. The thin skinned tough guy comes out. ‘Where is your car industry?’ As if I care. 
 

Funny and sad to watch at the same time you blokes...

 

Australia has no car industry. It died an unceremonious death a few years back. It has been on life support since the early 1980s with all sorts of industry assistance packages until someone pointed out that it was essentially adding a couple of thousand dollars per vehicle to the sale price. It would have been cheaper for the government to simply pay the workers their salary for the rest of their life as opposed to bailing out the auto companies.

 

So now we import 100% of our vehicles. And cars are now cheaper for all of us.

 

The car companies have consolidated. It wasn’t worth having factories in Australia, so now we get a lot of our vehicles from Thailand and Japan which have factories of a scale not worth doing in Australia.

 

The car companies are global players, they go where they can produce the most cars for the least amount of money. 
 

If you’ve voted to tear up a world class seamless trade deal to essentially stick 10% on your exports to the EU, well you now need to live with the consequences. 
 

No gloating here. Just laying out the calculus that you now face. 
 

 

Its worse than that.

The deal will need to be ratified by ALL the member states.

Every country in the EU will be lining up to grab those UK car manufacturing jobs. Even if Germany is inclined to give a favourable deal to the UK there is no way the other countries will accept it.

The reality of Brexit starts to unfold. Ah well. They were well warned.

[VocalNeal]

16 hours ago, puipuitom said:

Economies of scale will prevent any EU car manufacturer to start in the UK. Only the opposite, like BMW-Mini, concentrated to their factory in Borne-NL.

So only one effected by Brexit would be the European ones. All others is business as usual.

 

Or VDL will be in trouble because they are an assembly plant so where do there parts come from? Cowley? Hams Hall? Swindon?

[vinny41]

Most imports tariff-free under no-deal plan

The new tariff regime would mark a shift in favour of products from non-EU countries.

It would mean 82% of imports from the EU would be tariff-free, down from 100% now.

92% percent of imports from the rest of the world would pay no border duty, up from 56%.

Imports of cars from the EU will have a tariff of 10% applied,

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47551266

[Throatwobbler]

8 hours ago, samran said:

Hmmm,

 

Lets do a little exercise to see where each governments interests lie on this one. Shall we?

 

The UK is concerned about post hard brexit price increases. So they will be levying ZERO tariffs on autos coming into the UK from the EU. This has been stated and published.

 

We know the EU will automatically levy a 10% impost on cars from the UK upon a hard brexit.

 

This will make UK produced cars more expensive in the EU. Other things being equal, it makes sense to produce them somewhere within the trading bloc so they don't incur the 10%.

 

Now, because of this self inflicted 10% cost impost, if there is a chance the German government can get these British jobs moved to Germany, with associated investment and NEW jobs for GERMAN workers to go along with it, how hard do you think the Germans are going to fight for what you quaintly call 'favourable terms for both the UK and the EU'.

 

Hmmm. German government.....German jobs and investment vs British jobs and investment.....hmmm, lets see. You are out of the bloc now...'out' as you love to say, means 'out'....

 

Lots more jobs in Germany. They still get to sell the same cars in the UK.

 

Now, I did say 'other things being equal' earlier. It may be the case that the continental desire for jellied eels, morris dancers and free movement of hooligans means that some things are traded off by the germans so that the car industry in the UK gets a bit of a leg up, but for that we will have to wait and see...

Stop using logic with Bre<deleted>ters. They have shown time and again that they have no comprehension about the big picture.

[samran]

2 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

Stop using logic with Bre<deleted>ters. They have shown time and again that they have no comprehension about the big picture.

They’ve got their brexit tea towel, blue passports and bendy bananas. Seems that was about the extent of their imagination as to what happens next...

[VocalNeal]

2 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

Stop using logic with Bre<deleted>ters. They have shown time and again that they have no comprehension about the big picture.

Hmmm Isn't 60% of UK trade not with Europe? Isn't this the bigger picture?

[samran]

21 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Hmmm Isn't 60% of UK trade not with Europe? Isn't this the bigger picture?

So you purposely hamstring 40% of trade you have got which is seamless and closest, and hope that your lesser negotiation power outside the EU is going to give you better odds at improving access on the other 60%???

[vinny41]

36 minutes ago, samran said:

They’ve got their brexit tea towel, blue passports and bendy bananas. Seems that was about the extent of their imagination as to what happens next...

In the event of No deal

imports of cars from the EU will have a tariff of 10% applied,

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47551266

[elliss]

On 1/30/2020 at 5:41 PM, mrfill said:

Actually, the British owned British motor industry is doing very well.

 

Morgan has a full order book and is producing cars at a breathtaking dozens a week. All the others are basically foreign owned assembly plants. Rolls-Royce are BMW, Bentley are VW, Jaguar/Land Rover are Tata and Aston Martin are about to change from Kuwati to Canadian and McLaren are Bahrainian. 

 

      Dozens a week , indeed breathtaking . 

       UK output is on the up at last ..

      

Edited January 31, 2020 by elliss

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, samran said:

They’ve got their brexit tea towel, blue passports and bendy bananas. Seems that was about the extent of their imagination as to what happens next...

 

u forgot the bendy cucumbers

 

[SheungWan]

On 1/30/2020 at 7:00 AM, TheDark said:

Probably many of the ones who were bored of their jobs at car factories and secretly always knew that becoming nurses is what they really wanted to do.

 

Worry not, there will be loads of open positions at NHS once those EU workers, who did not yet get the message "You are not welcome here", will be kicked out of the country. Ex autoworkers and pensionnaires will be just fine.

 

There are already 10,000 open nursing positions ahead of any Brexit implementation, so anybody wanting to make that switch could have done so already, subject to their qualifications etc.