Coronavirus and drought crises to take a toll on Thai economy

By THE NATION

 

FILE photo

 

Negative factors like the new coronavirus outbreak and the drought situation in the country could cost the country Bt226.7 billion this year, according to estimates by the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

 

UTCC president Thanavath Phonvichai said this week that the centre had evaluated the effects on the Thai economy of the coronavirus outbreak -- which affects the tourism sector and also the demand for Thai goods -- the ongoing drought, the PM2.5 dust crisis and the delay in the 2020 budget disbursement.

 

The centre, however, has not yet revised down its forecast for Thai economic growth this year from 2.8 per cent, as it was waiting to see if the government’s current and upcoming remedial measures could successfully ameliorate the problems.

 

The centre estimated that in case the coronavirus outbreak could be contained by March, the number of tourist arrivals in Thailand would be lower by 2.41 million, of which 1.84 million would be Chinese. This will cost the Thai economy about Bt117.3 billion.

 

If the epidemic prolongs till May, it will cost Thailand Bt189.2 billion.The outbreak in China is predicted to pull China’s economic growth this year below the current forecast of 5.9 per cent. Its slowing economy will result in a decline in the global economy, which will affect the demand of Thai goods accordingly.

 

The centre estimated that if China can control the virus spread by March, the impact on Thai exports would be limited to Bt15.5 billion. If China can control the situation only in May, the impact on Thai goods would be much higher at Bt36.7 billion.

 

In the case of budget disbursement, which should have been released last October, if the disbursement begins in April, will cost the gross domestic product (GDP) Bt77.5 billion. If the disbursement starts as late as June, it will hurt GDP by around Bt167 billion.

 

The PM2.5 dust pollution, if not at a serious level for more than two weeks, will affect GDP by Bt3.8 billion. If the situation prevails for not more than one month, it will cost Bt6.2 billion, according to UTCC's estimates.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30381354

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-01-31

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Preferring Chinese over others and killing people with PM2.5 .. it's a comforting thought to think karma might actually exist and she's a bitch.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

If the epidemic prolongs till May, it will cost Thailand Bt189.2 billion.

And lets not forget the impact of the "Baht outbreak", they're not even close to any cure for that epidemic. But its actually more suicidal than infectious.

Edited January 31, 20206 yr by RotBenz8888

and pollution and corruption and a self appointed government, and, and, and....

11 minutes ago, unamazedloso said:

and pollution and corruption and a self appointed government, and, and, and....

Great day for pessimists, not that I disagree... 

Edited January 31, 20206 yr by YetAnother

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The centre, however, has not yet revised down its forecast for Thai economic growth this year from 2.8 per cent, as it was waiting to see if the government’s current and upcoming remedial measures could successfully ameliorate the problems.

Remedial figure fiddling would be more appropriate

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai economic growth this year from 2.8 per cent

What´s much more less than the surrounding countries and Vietnam.

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The PM2.5 dust pollution, if not at a serious level for more than two weeks, will affect GDP by Bt3.8 billion. If the situation prevails for not more than one month, it will cost Bt6.2 billion, according to UTCC's estimates.

Not more than one month is very optimistic. Especially in the north it will be for around 3 months.

Maybe, maybe they’ll stop pounding the USD and other western currencies.  Then, and only then you might see some improvements...

No doubt. And add to that the worst air pollution in years. It is a perfect storm. Corona was not of their own making. Virtually every other problem Thailand faces was self created by the incompetents, who deserve to be ousted by the people. 

Read this link. https://www.c9hotelworks.com/news/phuket-coronavirus-tourism-impact-by-numbers.php?fbclid=IwAR2D8t0H13r-WcmhX5euLP7gZLabMhE9slmval7bzGPiHql361n5cyezIZA

 

The important part is, that the tourist numbers are massive down compared with last year - but Chinese New year was last year in February.

14 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

No doubt. And add to that the worst air pollution in years. It is a perfect storm. Corona was not of their own making. Virtually every other problem Thailand faces was self created by the incompetents, who deserve to be ousted by the people. 

We will all wait to see if Thailand and its relationship with the 2019 nCoV will be gasoline on a hot fire or not.

As for ousting by the People ? well they do have to fight Apache Gun Ships and all kinds of other War Toys with only a Machete 

On 1/31/2020 at 4:33 PM, Cake Monster said:

We will all wait to see if Thailand and its relationship with the 2019 nCoV will be gasoline on a hot fire or not.

As for ousting by the People ? well they do have to fight Apache Gun Ships and all kinds of other War Toys with only a Machete 

If push came to shove, and the Thai people really rose up and demanded justice and competence, I seriously doubt the army would have the veracity to mount an Egyptian or Chinese style attack on the people. I just do not see that happening.  

"And add to that the worst air pollution in years."

 

The air quality is getting worse even here in rural Isaan. Popped out this morning on my motorcycle to pick up some groceries, I was coughing, sneezing and my eyes were watering. Pretty horrendous.

 

125 in Ubon

157 in Korat

141 in Kohn Kaen

 

Pretty shocking when central London is 42!

Edited February 1, 20206 yr by SteveK

25 minutes ago, SteveK said:

"And add to that the worst air pollution in years."

 

The air quality is getting worse even here in rural Isaan. Popped out this morning on my motorcycle to pick up some groceries, I was coughing, sneezing and my eyes were watering. Pretty horrendous.

 

125 in Ubon

157 in Korat

141 in Kohn Kaen

 

Pretty shocking when central London is 42!

As per article that smoke costs Thailand's GDP between Bt3.8 and Bt6.2 billion a year! 

 

And still next to nothing happens. What's up with the apathy in this country?