Majority of people want facts on new coronavirus, removal of fake news: poll

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

Epidemiologists estimate more than 80% never do and have at the most cold-like symptoms, some not even that. 

I what you say here is true (which I've long suspected) would that make a significant reduction of the fatality rate in your opinion?

[Orton Rd]

when the Dr who blew the whistle dies at 34 in his own hospital with all the resources at his disposal I don't think there would be much point in going to a hospital

[WaveHunter]

20 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Anyone found the age spread of those who have died? i had a look online but didn't find anything.

 

Meant to only be a risk to elderly and those with weakened immunity but that doctor died who was in his 30s

The doctor who died contracted the virus from a patient who was unaware he was infected, and also, as a doctor, was simply more susceptible simply as an occupational hazard of being in a hospital environment.

 

Usually it is elderly people, those with pre-existing respiratory conditions or impaired immune systems, but as is being evidenced, all age group are susceptible to contracting the virus, and developing serious complications

[Sheryl]

21 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I what you say here is true (which I've long suspected) would that make a significant reduction of the fatality rate in your opinion?

Of course.

 

It may well turn out to have fatality rate no higher than  currently existing strains of influenza.

[WaveHunter]

23 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I what you say here is true (which I've long suspected) would that make a significant reduction of the fatality rate in your opinion?

The point is not that 80% do not develop serious symptoms.  The point is that 20% do, and those cases will require ICU care for many days. 

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that as the number of confirmed cases rises (which they will since it is estimated there are over 75,000 as yet unreported cases in Wuhan alone), the number requiring ICU care will overwhelm the medical care system.

 

It is only then that the true mortality rate will be realized, and it will be considerably higher than it is at present.

Edited February 9, 2020 by WaveHunter

[FarFlungFalang]

5 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Of course.

 

It may well turn out to have fatality rate no higher than  currently existing strains of influenza.

Thanks Sheryl I'm glad I finally found  someone who shares a similar outlook of this current outbreak and suspect would go a long way to easing peoples concerns and worries about it.Cheers and thanks again I feel less like a nutter!

Edited February 9, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[scubascuba3]

10 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The doctor who died contracted the virus from a patient who was unaware he was infected, and also, as a doctor, was simply more susceptible simply as an occupational hazard of being in a hospital environment.

 

Usually it is elderly people, those with pre-existing respiratory conditions or impaired immune systems, but as is being evidenced, all age group are susceptible to contracting the virus, and developing serious complications

Yes, I'd like to see the age split 

[FarFlungFalang]

7 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The point is not that 80% do not develop serious symptoms.  The point is that 20% do, and those cases will require ICU care for many days. 

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that as the number of confirmed cases rises (which they will since it is estimated there are over 75,000 as yet unreported cases in Wuhan alone), the number requiring ICU care will overwhelm the medical care system.

 

It is only then that the true mortality rate will be realized, and it will be considerably higher than it is at present.

 Oh I agree it has nothing to do with the point you are making to which I whole heartedly agree.It does have a lot to do with the point I've been trying to make for quite a while now.Good luck trying to get a point across in this type of environment it can be very trying and difficult.

[WaveHunter]

56 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Not in the least, just passing comment on a put-down of the what is currently being put in place. What went before is past history and what the outcome will be is crystal ball gazing. 

Unfortunately, in CHina "What went before" is not past history.  It's a template that is repeated over and over with every crisis the Chinese are faced with, and is occurring as we speak. 

 

Right now, the Chinese Central Government (not the Chinese people themselves) are still not being transparent about this crisis with their citizens or the world. 

 

They continue to refuse outside help from the global community because to do so would mean for the Party (CCP) to "lose face".  They continue to censor and even arrest their own citizens under the "Rumors Law" for "contributing to public disharmony" when they voice concerns over how things are being handled in social media.

 

It is not crystal ball gazing at all to determine how this all will play out.  It will play out very badly even though the outbreak will peak probably by April, but not as a result of any containment efforts by China's government.  Most experts agree that It will probably peak simply through "herd immunity" effect . 

 

The only question is how many people will die needlessly in the meantime, and how will the global community be impacted by all of this, and not only in terms of deaths but in economic terms as well, and for which the consequences will be considerable.

 

As long as the CCP is in power in China, caring more about preserving their own power over their citizens than they do about their citizens well-being, and at the same time attempting to deceive the global community,  such crises will occur over and over again just have they have countless times in the past.

Edited February 9, 2020 by WaveHunter

[emptypockets]

5 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

You want FACTS, Thai people? Well, here is one fact: Those crappy masks depicted above and so generously distributed for free by your government help zip, zilch, nada. They certainly won't prevent you from CATCHING the virus; and they are only very, very moderately effective in preventing you from SPREADING the virus (in case you are infected).

 

And you detest FAKE NEWS, Thai people? Well, one fake news item would be the government (including your highly incompetent minister of public health) claiming that these crappy masks indeed will keep you safe and that you, therefore, should wear them at all times to show "solidarity".

 

And you want another fake news item, just for good measure, Thai people? NOTHING is "100% under control", as your government has repeatedly boasted. Nor does your government "do everything that can be done". For example: Why are planeloads of Chinese tourists still being permitted to enter the country? And why do screening procedures at the airports remain so woefully inadequate?

 

Does the truth hurt, Thai people? Oh, I am sooo sorry. Sometimes it takes a bit of pain to finally wake up. 

How many Thai people do you think have read your rant?

My guess is zero.

[mrfill]

11 hours ago, lujanit said:

 

Well you won’t get the truth from this ‘government’ that is a fact.  

33% of people aren't bothered about that. Which is a bit worrying.

[Expat Brad]

On 2/9/2020 at 9:39 AM, Creasy said:

Al thai propaganda relating to the virus is made in china.

OMG!!! The Coronavirus was not made in bloody China. It is not a new virus either. It was creayed in a Laboratory that was NOT in China. Search your self under US Patents!!!

I did search but, FB will not allow it to be posted!!!

[ThaiBunny]

In what must surely be a theft of Chinese intellectual property the Aussies have managed to sequence its genome https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-doctors-announce-coronavirus-research-breakthrough

[WaveHunter]

17 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Of course.

 

It may well turn out to have fatality rate no higher than  currently existing strains of influenza.

No offence intended Sheryl.  I have read many of your posts over the months that I've been on ThaiVIsa and have a great deal of respect for your well-informed and helpful posts.

 

However, IMO, it's a big mistake to make any inference that nCoV may turn out to be no worse than Influenza. n Cov is already far more dangerous than Influenza in many ways and everyone should take it seriously and not underestimate its' potential.

 

It is also far more infectious, and with a higher mortality growth than Influenza or than SARS was:

 

Influenza, unlike n-CoV is a known virus that has been well-studied.  There is a vaccine for it.  Doctors know what to expect when a person becomes infected.  It's much easier to detect and contain the virus due to the relatively short incubation period and for the fact that symptoms develop relatively quickly before significant transmissibility can occur.

 

However, with n CoV very little is known since the virus has only been in humans for a matter of weeks.  There is no vaccine and probably will not be for at least a year.  The long incubation period before symptoms occur means the virus can be more widely spread, and most importantly, the Serious Complication Rate that is emerging is around 20%

 

That makes n-CoV an extremely dangerous virus that should be taken very seriously.  People should not be lulled into believing this is nothing more serious than Influenza, or that the mortality rate will remain where it is right now.

 

The big problem is with the Serious Complication Rate (SCR).  While it may be true that many people will suffer no more than minor symptoms if they are not in the subgroup of those at high risk (i.e.: elderly, those with pre-existing conditions, or those with immune system impairment), the fact remains that currently 20% of confirmed cases are going on to require ICU care, and that trend will continue.

 

If this trend continues, it means the the number of ICU cases will become far greater the the healthcare system can handle.  It is when this happens, that the confirmed fatality rate (CFR) will start to emerge, and it is safe to assume it will be much higher than it is now.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[steven100]

Aussie researchers make critical coronavirus breakthrough with live strain ...

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australian-researchers-develop-live-strain/cf414407-d446-41d8-9fad-405a7b964a57

"Early and accurate diagnosis of infectious and deadly viruses is critical because undiagnosed patients can unknowingly transmit it to others," said Health Minister Brad Hazzard.

"But unless clinicians understand the epidemiology of the disease – how it behaves and replicates - they can't develop reliable diagnostic testing to identify and contain it.

"A team of elite NSW researchers have achieved this by undertaking genome sequencing of the virus and growing the live virus from real patients as opposed to using synthetic materials."

[FarFlungFalang]

22 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Aussie researchers make critical coronavirus breakthrough with live strain ...

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australian-researchers-develop-live-strain/cf414407-d446-41d8-9fad-405a7b964a57

"Early and accurate diagnosis of infectious and deadly viruses is critical because undiagnosed patients can unknowingly transmit it to others," said Health Minister Brad Hazzard.

"But unless clinicians understand the epidemiology of the disease – how it behaves and replicates - they can't develop reliable diagnostic testing to identify and contain it.

"A team of elite NSW researchers have achieved this by undertaking genome sequencing of the virus and growing the live virus from real patients as opposed to using synthetic materials."

"The fatality rate of coronavirus is currently 2.16 percent of infected patients." This is a quote from the story in the link.

 There is no way to confirm the fatality rate without definitively knowing the number of infections which the "official health authorities say is not possible with this outbreak instead they base this 2.16% figure on confirmed infections which give an inaccurate fatality rate hence this statement is false news. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[rken2]

  

Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus

Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus
[link to journals.plos.org (secure)]

These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV. However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced. Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated.

And...dodgy chinese vaccinations
[link to www.theguardian.com (secure)]

 

[WaveHunter]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

"The fatality rate of coronavirus is currently 2.16 percent of infected patients." This is a quote from the story in the link.

 There is no way to confirm the fatality rate without definitively knowing the number of infections which the "official health authorities say is not possible with this outbreak instead they base this 2.16% figure on confirmed infections which give an inaccurate fatality rate hence this statement is false news. 

Yes, yet another example of fake news, designed to placate the public and lull them into a false sense that there is really nothing to be too worried about!

 

Far more illuminating is to look at mortality growth, which can validly be quantified right now for n-CoV.  

 

This paints a very disturbing indication of how serious n-CoV is proving to be:

 

For those who believe Influenza is far more dangerous...I think they might want to re-think things a bit.

 

For those who think this is no more infectious than SARS was, this graph may change your mind:

 

People who continue to downplay the seriousness of nCov need to stop spreading such utter nonsense and pure BullShi*!.  This is a real and present danger for us all, not just for the people in Wuhan.

 

As much as I hate saying this, I think it can only get much worse before it starts getting better.  I say this not as an alarmist, but simply as a realist.

 

Even though what's happening in China right now seems far away, we all need to take responsibility by simply being well informed with the truth, not misinformation.

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[SkyFax]

From the WuhanVirusLive(dot)com website:

 

LET YOUR FRIENDS KNOW HOW BAD THE SITUATION IS...

 

(Please donate)

 

 

[nausea]

Yeah, the real death rate would be interesting. As far ae I can see 25% get serious. The majority of those recover with intensive medical care. How long that will continue when medical services are overwhemed is anybodies guess.

[WaveHunter]

The WHO is doing an absolutely horrible job of keeping the public informed of the nCoV crisis, and in waiting so long to declare it to be a global health emergency, and even when they finally did, to emphatically state that no travel or trade restrictions should be put into place.

 

This is exactly how they reacted during the Ebola outbreak.  At the time, their actions were deemed to be a catastrophic failure to warn the world of the dangers of Ebola in west Africa by a panel of independent world experts convened by the Harvard Global Health Institute, as published in The Lancet in 2015.

 

The report suggested that the World Health Organisation should be stripped of its role in declaring disease outbreaks to be an international emergency because of this.

 

Nothing seems to have changed in how they are handling the n-CoV outbreak now.  In essence, they are cherry-picking information that they release to the public, and slanting it to not only be less serious than it is, but acting in a highly political manner that benefits China's financial and political interests, rather than the safety and well-being of the international community.

 

Their job is to protect the safety and wellfar of the global community, not the financial and political interests of China's government (who wield considerable power as a member of the WHO)

 

To have faith in anything the WHO have to say is probably not a wise thing to do if you consider the truth to be important.  Lately they seem to be acting more as a "mouthpiece" for China's Central Government (CCP) than a protector of the global community.

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[FarFlungFalang]

58 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Yes, yet another example of fake news, designed to placate the public and lull them into a false sense that there is really nothing to be too worried about!

If you started counting the regular flu fatalities at 1 when the first Coronavirus fatality occurred,then when the coronavirus fatalities hit 900 then in the same period the regular flu would be around 40,000 thats about 39,000 more than the coronavirus!

Edited February 10, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

To have faith in anything they have to say is probably not a wise thing to do if you consider the truth to be important.

You seem to have a lot of faith in the numbers the Chinese Authorities are reporting when quoting figures to support some of your arguments,as can be seen in some of your previous posts.

 

9 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

In essence, they are cherry-picking information that they release to the public, and slanting it to not only be less serious than it is

Might not the same accusation be levelled at yourself to make it appear more serious than it is?

[WaveHunter]

15 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

If you started counting the regular flu fatalities at 1 when the first Coronavirus fatality occurred,then when the coronavirus fatalities hit 900 then in the same period the regular flu would be around 40,000 thats about 39,000 more than the coronavirus!

Here you go; does this really really paint a more optimistic picture to you?  Not me, especially when n-CoV has a Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of 20%.

 

An SCR of 20% means that 20% of confirmed cases will require ICU care, and with the growing number of confirmed cases, ICU capabiities of the healthcare system will be overwhelmed quickly.  In other words, the fatality rate will then skyrocket as a result of inability to provide ICU care.

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[DrTuner]

15 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

To have faith in anything the WHO have to say is probably not a wise thing to do if you consider the truth to be important.  Lately they seem to be acting more as a "mouthpiece" for China's Central Government (CCP) than a protector of the global community.

UN and it's agencies lost their teeth when Hammarskjöld was shot down. It's a collection of bureaucrats waiting for a fat pension now.

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Here you go; does this really really paint a more optimistic picture to you?  Not me, especially when n-CoV has a Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of 20%.

 

An SCR of 20% means that 20% of confirmed cases will require ICU care, and with the growing number of confirmed cases, ICU capabiities of the healthcare system will be overwhelmed quickly.  In other words, the fatality rate will then skyrocket as a result of inability to provide ICU care.

 

It might well paint a more serious picture if you put the "regular" flu onto your graphs,can you do that so I can get a clear comparison?

[WaveHunter]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

UN and it's agencies lost their teeth when Hammarskjöld was shot down. It's a collection of bureaucrats waiting for a fat pension now.

Unfortunately, that seems very true.  What has happened to our world anyway?

 

Even if that was back during the Cold War, it just seems that it was a much better time for truth and transparency, and people "did the right thing" more often, simply because it was the right thing to do.

 

I'm no idiot; I know a lot of bullshi* went on back then too, but nothing like today!

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

7 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

It might well paint a more serious picture if you put the "regular" flu onto your graphs,can you do that so I can get a clear comparison?

If you need to be that granular, you are nitpicking and ignoring the significance of a Serious Complication Rate of 20%.  Think about it.  It's real and it's kind of scary to imagine.

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

If you need to be that granular, you are nitpicking and ignoring the significance of what I said about 20% SCR.

You've post a graph of known infections without taking into consideration the number of unreported infections.Without knowing the number of unreported infections the fatality rate won't reflect the true fatality rate. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[ExpatLife]

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

"The fatality rate of coronavirus is currently 2.16 percent of infected patients." This is a quote from the story in the link.

 There is no way to confirm the fatality rate without definitively knowing the number of infections which the "official health authorities say is not possible with this outbreak instead they base this 2.16% figure on confirmed infections which give an inaccurate fatality rate hence this statement is false news. 

While the SARS outbreak was ongoing, WHO had it pinned at 4%, after all was said and done it was revealed to be 9.4%. The problem is, especially with his virus, that the symptoms take a long time to become apparent, and also the symptoms are deadly many days after they show, as pneumonia takes a while to kill. 
It's often wise to look at recoveries compared to deaths, or rather in this current situation compare deaths today to infections 10 or so days ago. 
This website has a bucket load of information and statistics 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Another interesting data sample to look at is CFR:
 

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak). 

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide. 

If we use the flawed formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

Instead, even with a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by ExpatLife