Losing Chinese tourists to virus outbreak to have cascading effect on Thai economy

By The Nation

 

Chatchai Payuhanaveechai

 

Thailand could lose 1.6 million to 3.5 million Chinese tourists and gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 would drop by 0.4 to 1 per cent due to the virus outbreak, Government Savings Bank (GSB) president Chatchai Payuhanaveechai said.

 

GSB’s research centre estimated that if China could control the Covid-19 outbreak within three months, Thailand would lose 1.6 million Chinese tourists and Bt80 billion in tourism revenue and GDP might drop by 0.4 per cent. If it took China six months to control the situation, Thailand could lose 3.5 million Chinese tourists, Bt170 billion in lost revenue and it would slash GDP by one per cent.

 

The businesses of retailers, hotels, transportation and restaurants were the most affected, especially in cities that usually drew tourists, such as Bangkok, Phuket and Chiang Mai, Chatchai said.

 

Retailers could lose Bt25 billion to Bt50 billion in revenue, hotels could lose Bt21 billion to Bt45 billion, restaurants Bt16 billion to Bt34 billion and transportation Bt7.5 billion to Bt16 billion.

 

The absence of Chinese tourists would also have side-effects on upstream businesses such as plantation, livestock, power and chemistry.

He said that GDP growth in 2020 would not exceed 2.5 per cent though the bank expected that at the end of the last year that it would grow around 3.5 per cent.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30382317

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-18

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

Well, som nam na. This is where putting all your eggs in the same basket gets you.

 

Guess now would be a good time to humiliate another elderly farang.

Starting to sound like tourism is greater than 20% of the Thai GDP, and the Chinese drive more than 20% of that.   Thailand, since 2014, is the land of fixation. 

 

TAT was once trying to entice South Korean and Japanese women to Thailand.  One TAT's more thoughtful ideas.  What happened to that? 

 

Australians use to say Thailand was a great cheap holiday.  The elitist Thais bristled at such an accusation, but cheap means people will come back, and now they don't.  A good business disturbed by dull witted elites in nice suits.

 

Do believe TAT said they were targeting first timers to Thailand.   How do you do such a delusional thing?  

 

TAT thinks they can select their customers and determine what they will pay.  What the "authority" fails to realize is that your customers choose you, you don't choose them.  They control your business.  You just manage it for them.  Being selective is a brain dead notion and not very welcoming by a country once known to be one of the most welcoming.  Vietnam is far more interesting right now thanks in part by the Thai army.

Edited February 18, 20206 yr by yellowboat

1 hour ago, webfact said:

If it took China six months to control the situation, Thailand could lose 3.5 million Chinese tourists,

Just perhaps the Chinese won't be back at all, ever thought about that?

Because Thailand has had it good for so many years regarding tourism, the TAT just assume that people will come, and they forget that they have a freedom of choice with such fantastic places such as Mexico, Portugal, Vietnam and Indonesia now offering a lot more for your money. They are myopic in the extreme, and that's being polite.

Hitting non tourist businesses already. Company my wife works for (skin care products) saw orders from one client drop from 500K to 200K this month.

That's a real shame.

 

 

At least Thais know and understand the practice of saving for a rainy day. 

Tiger balm sales are up.

44 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Just perhaps the Chinese won't be back at all, ever thought about that?

Maybe the disease will spread to Thailand same as in China. You think the Thai could cope in 6 months?

15 minutes ago, Bullie said:

Maybe the disease will spread to Thailand same as in China. You think the Thai could cope in 6 months?

I wonder how many Thai businesses have got enough money squirreled away to be able to survive on a skeleton staff for six months? I suspect very few. It's Thai businesses and Thai people who are ultimately going to be harmed by the shortsightedness of these policies. I spoke to a good friend of mine a few days ago who owns a very nice little resort on Samui, with small bungalows for about 1100 a night. He's between a rock and a hard place as business is worse than ever, but selling up isn't an option either as he would almost certainly never find a buyer. So he's just draining his and his wife's savings hoping for things to improve. I suggested that he double his room rates to make up for the shortfall.

 

It really is a pretty amazing situation. Thailand alienates the very tourists who made the place popular in the first place through ridiculous and unfriendly immigration policies, racist rants from the government and the uncontrolled surge in the currency. Then they put all their hopes on China, which seemed reasonable, with almost 1.4 billion people I guess that could have worked. But then that very country is struck with one of the worst pandemics for decades. It's almost like divine intervention.

 

I doubt tourism will ever reach the heady heights of years gone by. With the rise of the internet, tourists are more savvy now than ever before. If I was a young man in the UK these days, I'd be looking at Mexico - similar living costs, weather, very attractive girls, much better food options, much better architecture and tourist attractions, and much easier visa situation. Plus the language is much, much easier for Westerners. Mexico City beats Bangkok hands down for tourists.

Edited February 18, 20206 yr by SteveK

As soon as the virus crisis has ended, all those Chinese and Indians will be back and they will be more each year.

Asian tourism is the future for Thailand even if we don't like it.

25 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Asian tourism is the future for Thailand even if we don't like it.

Anutin's little rant was picked up by western media and I would guess than many potential holidaymakers would have seen it. So I doubt western tourism will pick up any time soon.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/07/thai-health-minister-apologizes-for-racial-slur-against-white-people-in-coronavirus-rant/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7981611/Thailands-health-minister-says-Western-tourists-kicked-out.html

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/thai-minister-says-kick-western-tourists-not-wearing-082104340.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-07/thai-minister-sorry-for-threatening-tourists-not-wearing-masks

https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/a/1467258.html

https://www.gulftoday.ae/lifestyle/2020/02/08/all-western-tourists-who-are-not-wearing-face-masks-to-be-removed-from-thailand-says-health-minister

 

Mexico gives 180 days visa-free entry to most western nations. Can you imagine that?

Edited February 18, 20206 yr by SteveK

19 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

As soon as the virus crisis has ended, all those Chinese and Indians will be back and they will be more each year.

Asian tourism is the future for Thailand even if we don't like it.

Thailand, since 2014, has been known for molesting the goose that lays the golden eggs.  The military's over controlling nature has not been good for Thailand.  The business you speak of is Thailand's to lose.  From a western perspective, Vietnam looks to go more inviting with long, hassle free visas, work opportunities and an affordable, fun life, like Thailand use to have. 

 

China will bounce back quickly business wise after the virus, but tourists will probably not flood back until 6 months after that time.  Hong Kong is out of toilet paper.   That alone is very telling.

Tourism down in Thailand? I waited to the last minute to book hotels on Kho Chang from late February to early March, thinking there would be bargains. I was wrong, hotel rates are now through the roof. I had to give up on Kho Kood entirely, nothing decent at reasonable prices there. Thailand tourism in crisis my foot.

Negative effect? No #$%^.

26 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Hong Kong is out of toilet paper.   That alone is very telling.

Its not telling me much apart from there's likely to be a run on bum guns.

12 minutes ago, JackGats said:

Tourism down in Thailand? I waited to the last minute to book hotels on Kho Chang from late February to early March, thinking there would be bargains. I was wrong, hotel rates are now through the roof. I had to give up on Kho Kood entirely, nothing decent at reasonable prices there. Thailand tourism in crisis my foot.

That is the business model JackGats.  When numbers are low you double your prices or triple them to get the money.  Its Thai Business 101, then they complain that they have no tourists.  If they halved the prices I am sure they would be sold out in no time, then you keep occupancy up and charge a little more for other products to make up the difference, but thats not how its done.....

1 hour ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Just perhaps the Chinese won't be back at all, ever thought about that?

IMO, the effects of this Corona Virus Outbreak are going to be felt well into 2021, and maybe even further that that.

Not only will the Tourists from China be slow to return, and I say this because Bejing will self impose some kinds of Travel bans upon the Chinese Citizens through fear of another outbreak, and in in order to rebuild International confidence that has been knocked due to the Virus.

The Economic hit to the country will also be immense, and the Gov,t will be trying to recoup losses, and therefore it will be all hands to the pumps.

Looking at the beaches, Thailand is doing fine for now. Bangkok maybe not as much. 
 

but, flew from KL to Samui and the plane was essentially empty, maybe a 25% load factor.  Thailand is pretty resilient, has better food, and really is cheaper than most of the other places bantered about. But, they have squandered a decade and the real impact has not been seen yet. 

So perhaps it's time to try and keep the retirees and other expats legally staying here, happy,  to avoid that should they also flee elsewhere ?

2 minutes ago, observer90210 said:

So perhaps it's time to try and keep the retirees and other expats legally staying here, happy,  to avoid that should they also flee elsewhere ?

No, no, no! Keep hassling them until they leave!

2 hours ago, SteveK said:

Because Thailand has had it good for so many years regarding tourism, the TAT just assume that people will come, and they forget that they have a freedom of choice with such fantastic places such as Mexico, Portugal, Vietnam and Indonesia now offering a lot more for your money. They are myopic in the extreme, and that's being polite.

You can't really blame them, because they have been taught from birth that Thailand is the best place on Earth. So why would anyone NOT want to come?

How many of these reports do they have to generate?

OK, most people are not stupid. Lower number of tourists means less money being spent here and will hurt the economy. 

We get it.

Edited February 18, 20206 yr by bkk6060

3 hours ago, yellowboat said:

Starting to sound like tourism is greater than 20% of the Thai GDP, and the Chinese drive more than 20% of that.   Thailand, since 2014, is the land of fixation. 

 

TAT was once trying to entice South Korean and Japanese women to Thailand.  One TAT's more thoughtful ideas.  What happened to that? 

 

Australians use to say Thailand was a great cheap holiday.  The elitist Thais bristled at such an accusation, but cheap means people will come back, and now they don't.  A good business disturbed by dull witted elites in nice suits.

 

Do believe TAT said they were targeting first timers to Thailand.   How do you do such a delusional thing?  

 

TAT thinks they can select their customers and determine what they will pay.  What the "authority" fails to realize is that your customers choose you, you don't choose them.  They control your business.  You just manage it for them.  Being selective is a brain dead notion and not very welcoming by a country once known to be one of the most welcoming.  Vietnam is far more interesting right now thanks in part by the Thai army.

Totally agree with your post yellow boat, very well put. 

2 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Just perhaps the Chinese won't be back at all, ever thought about that?

Oh I do hope so

My gf told me Israel banned Thailand due to Corona virus. 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Losing Chinese tourists to virus outbreak to have cascading effect on Thai economy

So will the condescending treatment of tourists.

6 minutes ago, Pravda said:

My gf told me Israel banned Thailand due to Corona virus. 

They haven't banned visitors coming from Thailand, but are forcing them to enter quarantine for 14 days upon arrival.

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Its not telling me much apart from there's likely to be a run on bum guns.

I was actually quite surprised that Hong Kong people use toilet paper, and not the bum gun like in Thailand, or just nothing at all like in rural China. I guess they learned that from the British.

2 hours ago, Emdog said:

Hitting non tourist businesses already. Company my wife works for (skin care products) saw orders from one client drop from 500K to 200K this month.

The company where my wife works is also laying people off already.

 

And many small shops in the neighbourhood have closed..no more customers.