As India coronavirus cases spike, experts daunted by prospect of South Asia spread

By Shilpa Jamkhandikar

 

FILE PHOTO: A health desk is set up to screen travelers for signs of the coronavirus at Maharaja Bir Bikram Airport in Agartala, India, January 31, 2020. REUTERS/Jayanta Dey/File Photo

 

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India has ramped up the screening of travellers to keep the coronavirus at bay but a flurry of new cases has experts warning that it may be hard to contain a spread in densely populated South Asia with its generally poor medical infrastructure.

 

India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are home to some 1.7 billion people, or more than a fifth of the world’s population, but their over-stretched health systems could struggle to handle the type of intensive care required for coronavirus patients.

 

On top of that, a prevalence of existing health problems such as diabetes could spell trouble while the sort of sweeping restrictions China has imposed to stifle the virus would be hugely difficult in South Asia’s more unruly cities.

 

“The way Indian society is structured, the kind of lockdown that many countries including China and Japan have instituted, is pretty much impossible even under good circumstances,” said Vivekanand Jha, executive director of the George Institute for Public Health, in New Delhi.

 

India’s total confirmed coronavirus rose to 29 on Wednesday, from six early this week.

 

The coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year, has infected more than 95,000 people globally, and killed more than 3,200, most of them in China.

 

Some health experts fear that even with the recent spike in cases, India’s actual tally could be much bigger.

 

“There is a strong possibility that the number of cases in India is much higher than what has been detected,” Arunkumar G., director of the Manipal Institute of Virology, said, citing a virus incubation of up to two weeks.

 

Fears were fanned this week when India’s health minister disclosed that 16 foreign tourists who have tested positive had been touring since mid-February.

 

Last week, U.S. intelligence sources told Reuters that India’s available countermeasures and the potential for the virus to spread its dense population was a focus of serious concern.

 

‘ALL INITIATIVES’

 

India’s government says it has screened more than one million travellers, boosted its testing capabilities and set up isolation wards in all major cities with international airports.

 

But 450 million of India’s 1.3 billion people are estimated to be migrants, with vast numbers packing its rail and road systems daily meaning controlling any spread would be a huge challenge.

 

India’s high number of diabetics - 77 million - and high rates of problems like kidney disease could lead to higher morbidity, or protracted treatment, experts said.

 

“One particular risk of India is the co-existence of other non-communicable disease epidemics,” Dr Rajib Dasgupta, who is a professor of community health at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government says it is confident of its ability to arrest the spread of the virus.

 

“Coronavirus is a challenge, but the government of India has taken all initiatives to ensure that it is stopped,” said D.V. Sadananda Gowda, minister of chemicals, who oversees the pharmaceuticals sector.

 

Neighbouring Pakistan has found five coronavirus cases. A top health official was gloomy about the prospects of tackling a major outbreak.

 

“We don’t have human resources, we don’t have the required inventory, we don’t have a capacity to cope with a big emergency with the given resources,” Shahid Malik, secretary general of the Pakistan Medical Association, told Reuters.

 

Bangladesh has not confirmed any cases of the coronavirus but five Bangladeshi workers have tested positive in Singapore.

 

Bangladesh’s health ministry said more than 300,000 people have been screened at airports and other border entry points.

 

But one passenger was not impressed by what he considered lax screening upon arrival in the capital, Dhaka.

 

“Many of us could skip the screening. Just imagine what would happen if someone infected with the virus enters. It’ll be a total disaster,” Farid Yamin, a Bangladeshi working in Singapore, told Reuters.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-05

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"India’s total confirmed coronavirus rose to 29 on Wednesday, from six early this week."

 

Spike?

I was wondering when India was going to hit the world virus news

 

I wonder how many infected were returning from other Asian countries like Thailand for example

 

This is not good news no matter how you look at it

India is a ticking worse case scenario....There is no concept of personal space there = people are bunched & crammed there 24/7.....The hospitals routinely have hundreds upon hundreds of people jammed together waiting to check in/be seen.....It's not like here or the US even under normal conditions.....

It could roll through there unhindered and fast......

"These daily commutes are killing me. I'm going to Thailand."

18 minutes ago, pgrahmm said:

...The hospitals routinely have hundreds upon hundreds of people jammed together waiting to check in/be seen..

Just like many government hospitals here in Thailand where they look at you like you are crazy if you suggest they spray the toilets to kill the infestation of mosquitos, in areas where people routinely die of dengue fever.

 

Never mind they have nice white uniforms and little areas to pray in.

I have been waiting and watching for what happens in India.  Once this thing gets into those slums over there it's going to be too bad for everyone else.

Covid 19  Menu 

 

Entree- Iran, Sth Korea, Italy

Mains- China or India

Dessert- Choice of any Sth East Asian country, Chef recommends Thailand or Indonesia 

So no hoards of welcome Indian tourists then, not much left is there.

In a place like India, you'd be lucky to detect like 10% of cases as it's pretty messy there on a few fronts like healthcare or anyone giving a toss about it. Also, in such a place there is simply nowhere you can go to get away from everyone unless you lock yourself in your room ...everywhere you go is just teeming with people everywhere.

The planet is over crowded. Mother nature is doing what humans refuse to do - control their population.

Edited March 5, 20206 yr by Don Chance

It’s going to get real ugly real quick in India they don’t even have the start of the infrastructure to Handle this god help those poor people 

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh - together they'll make Wuhan look like a Sunday School picnic.

India is INFESTED with TBC

23 minutes ago, justin case said:

India is INFESTED with TBC

True. I think it's safe to assume that being infected with both TBC and the new coronavirus at the same time is pretty much a death sentence. This could really get ugly.

 

2 hours ago, mfd101 said:

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh - together they'll make Wuhan look like a Sunday School picnic.

I spent some time in Bangladesh ,a sh_t encrusted toilet is nice compared to it,even in the good hotel i stayed in the best thing was at least the cockroaches were dead in my room.

 

2 hours ago, justin case said:

India is INFESTED with TBC

OMG! TBS + coronavirus + messy country + underfed + no infrastructure + no money + no education + ....

This is going to be a disaster

Yet Thailand will still keep on letting the Chinese and Indians into the country stating they are good tourists.

1 hour ago, candide said:

OMG! TBS + coronavirus + messy country + underfed + no infrastructure + no money + no education + ....

This is going to be a disaster

India has money just not spent on the correct needs.

18 hours ago, Brigand said:

In a place like India, you'd be lucky to detect like 10% of cases as it's pretty messy there on a few fronts like healthcare or anyone giving a toss about it. Also, in such a place there is simply nowhere you can go to get away from everyone unless you lock yourself in your room ...everywhere you go is just teeming with people everywhere.

It's estimated that about 5% of the infections in China were being detected so 10% would actually be pretty good.If 80% of detected infections only experience mild flu like symptoms most wouldn't be checked.Only cases which have more severe problems are tested so the actual death rate will be much lower than the CFR.