Virus’ cost to Thailand likely Bt176 bn, says ADB

By The Nation

 

 

The Covid-19 virus could cost Thailand US$5.6 billion (Bt176 billion), the Asian Development Bank warned on Friday (March 6).

 

In an analysis covering all countries and territories in the region, the ADB cited sharp declines in domestic demand, less tourism and business travel, weakened trade and production linkages and supply disruptions, as well as the enormous outlay on health treatment.

 

 

 

“The magnitude of the economic impact will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain,” it said, adding that a “range of scenarios” had to be considered. 

 

“The range of scenarios [the ADB] explored suggests a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion, or 0.1-0.4 per cent of global GDP, with a moderate-case estimate of $156 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP.” 

 

The Thai economy is likely to lose $5.6 billion – 1.11 per cent of GDP – in a moderate case, it said.

 

Two-thirds of the outbreak’s impact falls on China, the ADB said, but the whole region will share the pain of “a sharp but temporary decline in domestic consumption and possibly investment, if the outbreak affects views on future business activity”.

 

There will be “declines in tourism and business travel, spill-overs of weaker demand to other sectors and economies through trade and production linkages, supply-side disruptions to production and trade, and effects on health such as increased disease and mortality as well as shifts in health care spending.

 

“ADB developing members that will be significantly affected are those with strong trade and production linkages with China. In addition to tourism-dependent economies, other developing economies such as Hong Kong, Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taipei and Vietnam will be materially affected.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30383521

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-03-07

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7 hours ago, rooster59 said:

“The magnitude of the economic impact will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain,” it said, adding that a “range of scenarios” had to be considered. 

Prepare for the worst ...

Let China pay for it.

I cannot place numbers against the effect of Covid19 upon the Thai economy. What I can say, is that the fall out from this Virus is going to be felt by many nations well into next Year.

It took 18 Months for the World to function at full potential after the Sars Outbreak, and this thing appears to be worse.

Even with China,s might, its going to take  them a long time to get back on stream 100%, and their Tourists will be needed to help rebuild the Economy, so Thailand will  suffer worse than many.

Total BS. If tourism makes up 20% of the economy, that is about $100 billion. Even if it is down by 30%, that is about a trillion baht.