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Asinine and unfair closings


Trujillo

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4 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

Testing of course is crucial, but not enough kits currently

Contact tracing and quarantine yes

Where are the ventilators for those who require them

Where do we get the contract tracers?

Where do you quarantine and feed and treat ?

Where are the supplies of PPE for those delivering treatments, monitoring and other supports?

Numbers are doubling in most countries every 3 days

Even developed nations have run out of beds and making difficult ethical decisions

 

Testing, identifying and isolating is really the way to defeat the virus.

 

A vaccine could be a year away, even then as the flu vaccine shows the virus is likely to mutate so that a formerly effective vaccine will no longer be effective. Despite flu vaccines we still have flu pandemics.

 

There is only one way, test, test, test....identify and isolate.

 

With the quick and dirty test we already made huge progress.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/18/new-rapid-covid-19-testing-kit-can-return-results-in-15-minutes-but-not-yet-available-in-australia

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16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Testing, identifying and isolating is really the way to defeat the virus.

 

A vaccine could be a year away, even then as the flu vaccine shows the virus is likely to mutate so that a formerly effective vaccine will no longer be effective. Despite flu vaccines we still have flu pandemics.

 

There is only one way, test, test, test....identify and isolate.

 

With the quick and dirty test we already made huge progress.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/18/new-rapid-covid-19-testing-kit-can-return-results-in-15-minutes-but-not-yet-available-in-australia

Your argument is remains unless the kits are available and the staff to administer them is available.

Please define whre are the contact tracers

Where do you quarantine large numbers

You are repeating the same thing time again

Repeating something does not make it happen if you have no equipement to carry out the task

 

 

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The Thais themselves have done excellent work in producing their own fast test.

 

"It is estimated that up to 4,000 test kits will be produced daily and will cost approximately 475 baht apiece."

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1880785/rapid-test-kit-ready-for-trials

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-claims-to-have-cheaper-and-faster-virus-test-kits/

 

834 test-kits were delivered to Thailand from China.

 

https://www.mcot.net/view/5e79fd98e3f8e40aef422a42

 

Yes, until testing starts for real self-isolate.

 

But this is taking too long.

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6 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

That's wonderful. But how many are in Thailand right now?  How many of those are in the USA right now.

Right now... That's the issue... Not tomorrow or next week. Right now.

What should we do RIGHT NOW? What can we do with what we have right now.

It's wonderful to talk about companies making great strides to produce test kits, but if the countries don't have them today, what is YOUR suggestion for what can be done today?

We don't have the test kits right now.

Will you agree that the next best option is self-isolation? Or will you continue just saying "Testing, identifying and isolating will defeat the virus" as if it's some magical mantra, until the tests can be administered?

 

 

 

 

Yes, you are correct. It will. But what do we do today? There aren't enough tests. Sure, we

need more, Sure, we will get more... eventually. But what do we do in the meanwhile?

 

This man can post!!!

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An Oxford study has found that half the population of the UK may already be infected.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8148529/Coronavirus-infected-half-British-population-say-Oxford-University-experts.html

 

In the absence of government's decisive action to close borders and isolate and given the individual's inability to truly isolate the UK's chief medical advisers are right, herd immunity is the way this will disappear.

 

Herd immunity means so many are infected and immune that the virus can not spread.

 

Is self-isolation then not the wrong thing to do, because herd immunity would be the way the virus stops spreading? 

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3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

In the absence of government's decisive action to close borders and isolate and given the individual's inability to truly isolate the UK's chief medical advisers are right, herd immunity is the way this will disappear.

Herd immunity means so many are infected and immune that the virus can not spread.

Is self-isolation then not the wrong thing to do, because herd immunity would be the way the virus stops spreading? 

 

Maybe yes.... Maybe no.

At this point, we have no solid proof that we develop long-term immunity after regaining health from the virus. Only some anecdotal evidence, and very little of that! Otherwise, we'd be much closer to having a developed vaccine. Several countries are working on a vaccine, and some are in the testing stages, but it will still be a relatively long time until an effective on is available to the general public.

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18 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

Maybe yes.... Maybe no.

At this point, we have no solid proof that we develop long-term immunity after regaining health from the virus. Only some anecdotal evidence, and very little of that! Otherwise, we'd be much closer to having a developed vaccine. Several countries are working on a vaccine, and some are in the testing stages, but it will still be a relatively long time until an effective on is available to the general public.

 

It seems to be the medical consenus that after infection immunity will protect you from re-infection, unless you're an exception.

 

"Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Chris Whitty, Boris Johnson’s chief medical adviser, sought to reassure the public. Those who have had the virus once will develop some immunity, they said – and it is rare to get an infectious disease again."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

Herd immunity, ie so many people being immune that the virus can not spread, seems the more likely outcome, rather than a miracle vaccine saving the world. Even with the flu vacccines we still have flu, and in Thailand 2500 people die per year of the flu, whereas in the UK where vaccines are used 17000 die.

 

I think the problem with a vaccine is that the virus mutates, and when you have a vaccine against one strain it does not mean it will protect against the next mutated strain.

 

If herd immunity is the way to stop the spread of the virus then the more people that get infected the better it would be. So self-isolation and wearing masks would work against the desirable goal of herd immunity.

 

Self-isolation seems to make sense for the government's health services, so they're not overwhelmed at once. And I suppose a slower rate of infection may be less problematic in terms of the numbers of dead accumulating more slowly. However, eventually herd immunity should come. And when so many people are infected and immune the virus can not spread anymore.

 

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

"Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Chris Whitty, Boris Johnson’s chief medical adviser, sought to reassure the public. Those who have had the virus once will develop some immunity, they said – and it is rare to get an infectious disease again."

 

 

 

And that, based on just two-month observation is pretty sketchy at best. And even they are saying 'some immunity.'  Hardly cause to join together in mask-less celebration. Is someone telling us that 'herd immunity' will protect us from the mutations, too? Which doctors are saying that?

 

Flatten the curve so that the researchers can come up with conclusive proof of a successful vaccine, and one that will protect us from the mutations as well. Give the hospital a chance to save at least some lives, rather than over-whelm them with new patients.

 

I'm not going to go along with Trump's willingness to sacrifice the elderly and the infirmed the way Nazi Germany did it's WW I disabled vets, gays, Arminians and entire races and religions.

There IS a better way.

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14 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

And that, based on just two-month observation is pretty sketchy at best. And even they are saying 'some immunity.'  Hardly cause to join together in mask-less celebration. Are you telling us that 'herd immunity' will protect us from the mutations, too? Which doctors are saying that?

 

Flatten the curve so that the researchers can come up with conclusive proof of a successful vaccine, and one that will protect us from the mutations as well. Give the hospital a chance to save at least some lives, rather than over-whelm them with new patients.

 

I'm not going to go along with Trump's willingness to sacrifice the elderly and the infirmed the way Nazi Germany did it's WW I disabled vets, gays, Arminians and entire races and religions.

There IS a better way.

No, it's not just a two-month observation, it's based on generations of knowledge from medical science. When people get a virus, as a general rule they are immune, this is what happens to the majority of the people. That is why the UK's chief medical advisers can be fairly certain immunity will happen, and base their whole strategy on this concept. Exceptions to immunity are just that, exceptions. They are rare. Immunity is the norm.

 

Look what other specialists, like  Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, are saying:

 

“However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

Like I said it is much less certain that a vaccine will permanently protect, since the virus can mutate and a vaccine that worked for one strain is useless against another strain. That is the experience with flu vaccines. Despite flu vaccines we still have the flu and hundreds of thousands of death from the flu every year.

 

You're not going to be able to stop old people dying by wearing a mask. There will be hundreds of thousands of deaths from the coronavirus going forward, regardless of whether you wear a mask or not.

 

However, it stands to reason that wearing a mask and self-isolation will slow the advance to the desirable goal of herd immunity. There is little evidence that self-isolation causes less deaths. The countries with the lowest death rates, like Germany, have the most moderate self-isolation policies, countries with the highest death rates have the most severe self-isolation policies. In Singapore they haven't closed schools and have a low death rate.

 

And btw, Germany did not sacrifice 'its Arminians'. That was Turkey. your social virtue signalling system is getting all mixed up. Germany has for years called on Turkey to acknowledge its role in the Holocaust of Armenians.

 

There is a better way to herd immunity, which is testing and isolating, as Germany is doing. However, that way is not feasible in some countries, so for those countries herd immunity is the best way. Self-isolation stands in the way of herd immunity, it slows down the approach towards that desirable goal.

 

 

Edited by Logosone
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2 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

'm not going to go along with Trump's willingness to sacrifice the elderly and the infirmed the way Nazi Germany did it's WW I disabled vets, gays, Arminians and entire races and religions

I think you mean WW11

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2 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

I'm not going to go along with Trump's willingness to sacrifice the elderly and the infirmed the way Nazi Germany did it's WW I disabled vets, gays, Arminians and entire races and religions.

There IS a better way.

 

29 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

I think you mean WW11

 

No, I mean WW I. 

World War II  hadn't begun in 1933 when he began his steady annihilation of those he considered to be a drain on Germany's economy. It was the WW I disabled vets that were the first to be eliminated, followed by the mentally ill, gays, then Gypsies, and Armenians. He didn't start in with the Jews until later. All in all, he killed over 11,000,000 in his 'Cleansing.'

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10 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

 

No, I mean WW I. 

World War II  hadn't begun in 1933 when he began his steady annihilation of those he considered to be a drain on Germany's economy. It was the WW I disabled vets that were the first to be eliminated, followed by the mentally ill, gays, then Gypsies, and Armenians. He didn't start in with the Jews until later. All in all, he killed over 11,000,000 in his 'Cleansing.'

Thank you for the clarification, much appreciated.

 

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2 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, it's not just a two-month observation, it's based on generations of knowledge from medical science. When people get a virus, as a general rule they are immune

 

I'll be damned! I knew there must be some reason we never caught another Common Cold after we had the first one as a child... immunity to the Rhinovirus!

 

The number of people who have caught the Flu VIRUS several times is rather high, even those who have taken the Flu vaccines.  Personally, I've had the Mumps virus twice. Many people have gotten the Measles virus more than once.

 

Let me ask you a question...  Have you brought YOUR family to the hospital so they can become infected with the virus and thus become immune? Are you practicing what you preach? Or just preaching?

 

You're not going to be able to stop old people dying by wearing a mask.

 

Of course not.

But you will certainly improve the chances of them not contracting the virus from you.

Please don't come near my family without wearing a mask.

 

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22 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

 

No, I mean WW I. 

World War II  hadn't begun in 1933 when he began his steady annihilation of those he considered to be a drain on Germany's economy. It was the WW I disabled vets that were the first to be eliminated, followed by the mentally ill, gays, then Gypsies, and Armenians. He didn't start in with the Jews until later. All in all, he killed over 11,000,000 in his 'Cleansing.'

Germany did not have Armenians. Not in 1933, not in WWI and not in WWII. Your knowledge of history is shocking.

 

The people who committed the holocaust on Armenians were the Turks. 

 

Germany has repeatedly called on Turkey to take responsibility for its treatment of Armenians.

 

What this has to do with current issues I fail to see.

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20 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

I'll be damned! I knew there must be some reason we never caught another Common Cold after we had the first one as a child... immunity to the Rhinovirus!

 

The number of people who have caught the Flu VIRUS several times is rather high, even those who have taken the Flu vaccines.  Personally, I've had the Mumps virus twice. Many people have gotten the Measles virus more than once.

 

Let me ask you a question...  Have you brought YOUR family to the hospital so they can become infected with the virus and thus become immune? Are you practicing what you preach? Or just preaching?

 

 

 

 

Of course not.

But you will certainly improve the chances of them not contracting the virus from you.

Please don't come near my family without wearing a mask.

 

I like you. You're funny. 

 

You're also actually right, to a degree. Immunity does not last forever. The virus could mutate in such a way that immunity is useless.

 

However, mutation can also go in our favour. The SARS virus lost a key element of its genome after a mutation which affected its transmission rate. Mutation does not need to be a bad thing, it can be a very good thing.

 

The thing is though, the Covid19 virus is from a group of RNA viruses that does not mutate as much as the influenza virus. By all accounts the number of mutations are few, slow and so far inconsequential. The good news is that herd immunity, and vaccine immunity once we get there, should last a good amount of time.

 

You mentioned mumps and measles. How about smallpox? It was one of the most infectious diseases known to mankind but has been eradicated thanks to a vaccine, that means no mutation or different strand developed. Who is to say this will not be the case with Covid19?

 

I will not comment on my own or my family's medical history, particularly as to Covid19 on a public talkboard in Thailand. I'm not crazy. 

 

But suffice to say that the likelihood of anyone not catching Covid19 is extremely small. Whether they practice self-isolation or not. At some point self-isolation will end. That's a good thing. The larger the number of infected, the larger the number of immune, the sooner the virus pandemic will end.

 

Edited by Logosone
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29 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

 

This is not academic. I'm really concerned that my government (Oz) ... and even it's hastily-convened panel of experts ... do not seem to have grasped the idea.

 

 

Maybe the Australian government should focus on eliminating the practice of eating bats in Australia.

 

"Bats have been hunted by Aboriginal Australians for thousands of years, extending into modern times. Popular game species are the black flying fox and the little red flying fox. In 1997, it was estimated that the Aboriginal people of the Top End consumed 180,000 flying foxes each year."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_as_food

 

Next pandemic to come from Australia?

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35 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

I don't find his knowledge of history is shocking at all, the Armenian thing may simply be a small oversight ... your rejection of a whole argument by diverting attention to another topic (in this case Turks)?  ... that I do find that shocking ... an example of ''whataboutism'' ... an insidious practice that needs to be identified and called out wherever possible.

 

... and if you "fail to see" what a post has to do with the issue under discussion, why bother to respond to it? or why not ask nicely for clarification?

To suggest that the Germans killed THEIR ARMENIANS in WWI is not 'a small oversight', that's frankly beyond belief.

 

If you do not think that's shocking I guess we have different approaches to reality. In reality, the Turks committed the mass killing of Armenians, not Germans. 

 

Germany has repeatedly called on Turkey to address this issue.

 

I don't need clarification on this issue, I'm perfectly certain who the Armenians were and who committed this atrocity.

 

If anything needs to be "called out" it's when someone accuses a whole nation falsely of killing off Armenians, when that was done by Turks.

 

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42 minutes ago, Logosone said:

To suggest that the Germans killed THEIR ARMENIANS in WWI is not 'a small oversight', that's frankly beyond belief.

 

 

Yet another Holocaust denier?   You may wish to rewrite your history, but please don't try to rewrite if for the rest of us. Point in fact, Hitler really didn't kill 11,000,000 himself. He had others do it for him, including Turks, Italians, and Poles to name just a few. While the majority of the Armenians were killed before Hitler took power, he happily ordered the execution of the Germany's Armenian population.

 

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48 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

Yet another Holocaust denier?   You may wish to rewrite your history, but please don't try to rewrite if for the rest of us. Point in fact, Hitler really didn't kill 11,000,000 himself. He had others do it for him, including Turks, Italians, and Poles to name just a few. While the majority of the Armenians were killed before Hitler took power, he happily ordered the execution of the Germany's Armenian population.

 

Wow, you've obviously got a screw lose.

 

Please do not interact with me anymore, since you're obviously not mentally well.

 

Just for the record, Armenians came to Germany in 1915, AFTER the Armenian Genocide which was done by the Turks on the Armenians. 

 

The genocide of Armenians you're so concerned about took place in Turkey, was done by Turkey and Germany was the country that gave the Armenians refuge.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians_in_Germany

 

Jesus.

 

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10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Wow, you've obviously got a screw lose.

...............................you're obviously not mentally well.

 

 

I'm well aware of the Armenian genocide done by the Turks. You are obviously unaware of the numbers of Armenians killed in the Holocaust.

Well, as you have done such a great job of moving the thread away from your

ideas of giving everyone the virus to keep them safe (but not your own family, naturally...)

And aren't grown up enough to debate without name-calling,

I'm going to accede to your wishes to have nothing more to do with you.

I hope you and yours remain healthy in this time of crisis.

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10 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

I'm well aware of the Armenian genocide done by the Turks. You are obviously unaware of the numbers of Armenians killed in the Holocaust.

Well, as you have done such a great job of moving the thread away from your

ideas of giving everyone the virus to keep them safe (but not your own family, naturally...)

And aren't grown up enough to debate without name-calling,

I'm going to accede to your wishes to have nothing more to do with you.

I hope you and yours remain healthy in this time of crisis.

I'm laughing as I type this, you're so confused, it's actually funny. Just for the record:

 

Again, the holocaust you have in your mind happened prior to 1915, it was perpetrated by the Turks.

 

The Armenians came to Germany who gave them refuge after 1915.

 

In WWII the Armenians fought side by side with Germany because Hitler considered the Armenians an "Aryan" people.

 

There was no holocaust of Armenians during WWII perpetrated by Germans. They were the allies of the Germans. They were considered Aryans.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenische_Legion

 

And as for 'name calling' you calling me a 'Holocaust denier', even online, is something you want to be careful with. I could sue you for defamation. I won't, because you're obviously not well, but the next German you meet may not be so understanding.

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10 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

No, I mean WW I. 

World War II  hadn't begun in 1933 when he began his steady annihilation of those he considered to be a drain on Germany's economy. It was the WW I disabled vets that were the first to be eliminated, followed by the mentally ill, gays, then Gypsies, and Armenians. He didn't start in with the Jews until later. All in all, he killed over 11,000,000 in his 'Cleansing.'

Before continuing to elaborate/fantasize on this strange mixture of events out of order, I suggest you read: what Hitler said

 

Do a little research.

 

from a Reddit thread

 

The problem with questions like this is that there is no such thing as the Nazi master plan for what will happen after the war. Unfortunately nobody wrote all the things down that the Nazis were planning to do after the war.

If the Euthanasia program the Nazis ran is any indication then the answer is most likely that they didn't plan to kill their own wounded. World War I veterans were technically exempt from the Euthanasia program, especially if they had been awarded medals, had been wounded, or had performed with special valor at the front. There are a couple of cases though where World War I veterans were killed. Henry Friedländer cites the case of 58 year-old Karl Rueff, a lieutenant in the reserves who had been awarded an Iron Cross First Class. He was institutionalized in south Germany due to a head wound he had suffered in the First World War. His disability pension paid for his institutional care, and he was relatively healthy, suffering only from occasional epileptic seizures. Nevertheless, in 1940 he was transferred to Grafeneck and gassed.

Friedländer also cites a similar case is known from Vienna. A veteran who had become a severe alcoholic was brought to Am Steinhof in 1942. He wasn't killed though because his attorney appealed and he was released. Public Health Officials argued in this second case that he might have been released but that he was to be considered "asocial" due to his alcoholism and his communist leanings. While no such things is known about Rueff, it is not unlikely that similar considerations governed the decision in his case. It is not a broad enough source basis to make a judgment but as an educated guess, the planned treatment of veterans might have been influenced by such considerations, as in if they would behave in a manner the Nazi state condoned. (Henry Friedländer in The Origins of Nazi Genocide: From Euthanasia to the Final Solution. Chapel Hill and London: University of North Carolina Press, 1995, p. 74)

To go into the question /u/Rittermeister raised below, we also need to talk about the Wehrmacht Euthanasia program.

I have written about this here previously but to reiterate, there is some indirect evidence that points to the Nazis killing German wounded German soldiers on the eastern front but it is unknown on what scale, how institutionalized this was, if it was official policy, and even if it happened at all.

Viktor Brack who had been charged with the centralized Euthanasia program, according to its provisions was in charge of deciding who of the injured Wehrmacht soldiers was to be killed based on their combat records. If he did this, is unknown. When the centralized euthanasia program was stopped and the decentralized euthanasia began, there might have been cases similar to the one in Vienna cited by Freidländer above, where doctors decided to kill veterans with mental problems but since that program was decentralized and the issue of killing veterans would have been a public relations disaster for the Nazis, very little is known (Wolfgang Petter: "Zur nationalsozialistischen 'Euthanasie': Ansatz und Entgrenzung," in Der Zweite Weltkrieg: Analysen, Grundzuege, Forschungsbilanz, edited by Wolfgang Michalka. Muenchen and Zuerich: Piper Verlag, 1989, pp. 819-820)

Similarly, Michael Burleigh in Death and Deliverance: "Euthanasia" in Germany c. 1900-1945. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994, pp. 231-232 and again Friedländer, pp. 296-297 both mention a mission Brack and 30 of the people who worked for him undertook a secret mission to the Eastern frontlines in the winter of 41/42. Disguised as members of the Organisation Todt, they worked in military hospitals in Minsk. The exact nature of their assignment remains unknown (part of it seems to have had to do with the gas van) but both Burleigh and Friedländer use post-war testimony by people from the military hospitals to suggest they were there to kill wounded soldiers of the Wehrmacht.

Again, we do not know what Brack's mission entailed and if they killed Wehrmacht soldiers while they were there but even if they did, it is a reasonable conclusion that no larger scale program of such kind existed. If they planned one for after the war, we can not say but given how much of an outrage that would have been to the German populace and how careful the Nazis were in placating the German populace, it seems very unlikely.

Edited to add: I just took a look at Ernst Klee's History of Euthanasia program in the Third Reich and he mentions another interesting tid-bit. It seems as though, we know of at least 36 former Wehrmacht soldiers who had been discharged from the Wehrmacht because of mental illnesses and subsequently killed at the Hadamar facility in 1943. This is not the case for all soldiers with mental problems since many were also transferred to so-called "Neurotikerlazarette" but it seems as though in the case of these 36, they did have a previous history of disciplinary problems in the army. This points to the same thing as with the cases Freidländer cites above that even the status as a veteran might no protect you if you did behave in a way the Nazi state deemed undesirable. But again, there is very little evidence and it is really hard to estabish if this was a mass phenomenon or if these 36 cases were the responsibility of one person or generally a one-off thing

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Neither China, Japan, nor Korea tested 'everyone.'  China brutally enforced quarantine, while Korea and Japan citizens followed their government's policies of self-quarantine and sheltering in place. All three of these countries are now re-opening their factories, shopping centers, and private businesses, with the statistics showing positive results in dealing with the situation. Korea and Japan began their self-quarantines early and wisely.

 

Thailand has finally gotten on the right track with policy, but the people aren't following it nearly as well as in Japan or Korea... and the numbers continue to rise.

 

The longer people do not comply with social distancing, the longer we will have to do it.

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