Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries

[Maestro]

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries

 

Summary Report 13
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national lockdowns.

 

In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number – a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death.

 

Read more: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/

 

Full report in PDF format:

Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

[Matzzon]

What? So, this report will for example show the number of infected in one country to be between 1,8 - 19 million. Yep, very useful. Thanks!

[uhuh]

Thank you for posting the link! 

[Moonlover]

Wow, that sounds fun! Now what have I got on the iPlayer to entertain me this evening.

[Logosone]

One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time.

 

So basically another totally flawed paper from the people who gave you 500,000  20,000 will die.

 

What a shock, the same people who said the most important measure by far is to use "social distancing" come out with a report saying "social distancing" was by far the most important measure.

 

Not a single proper investigation if testing or identifying the infected may possible have had a greater impact.

 

Shame the Chinese are more honest and totally disagree with this report.