Some numbers to put things into perspective

[1FinickyOne]

5 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

If you follow my posts carefully you would know that I never eat Thai seafood

why would I follow your posts carefully? You are one of many posters here... I just made a joke because you are sounding sooooo well informed when the truth is these days especially, there are numbers and interpretations to support any point of view that suits your opinion... 

[chessman]

30 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

You see an increase in cases and deaths, I just see an increase in testing !!

 

You're not thinking about this very carefully are you.

[cornishcarlos]

Just now, chessman said:

You're not thinking about this very carefully are you.

 

Is that a statement or a question ??

[AlQaholic]

It is simple, take the number of reported deaths and divide that with 0.01, that's the total number of current cases.

Edited April 8, 2020 by AlQaholic

[Assurancetourix]

55 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

maybe you just ate some bad seafood? 

When quoting a member you ust use the whole sentence and not part of it otherwise the meaning is completely different.
Please respect this .

 

I wrote :

 

"I wonder why all this end of the world cinema.

I wonder what is really playing out there, behind the sick and their respirators: are we playing the Great War to better mask the great depression that is coming? Is this an economic war to prepare for the tilting of empires and the collapse of the West? "

[rabas]

15 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What I think when I look at these graphs (which I have done several times a day) is that there are large numbers of untested positives that will bring the death rates down quite considerably and that with antibody testing which is likely to follow will give us a clearer picture of this outbreak.

Simple math example

 

1. Assume you now have 100,000 cases in a given population.

2. Now test 10,000.  Assume 10% of those die.

 

Q. What percentage of the remaining 90,000 will die?

 

Your answer may be, but many of the 90,000 have milder symptoms.

 

Q. What percentage of the milder untested cases will get worse over time?

 

A. It's complicated. Even more so because you are reasoning about a number 90,000 that may not even exist.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by rabas

[chessman]

12 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

If the world economy goes down only by 1.9% under lock down, why bother going back to work?

because a lot of the economy is still happening.

 

I actually agree with a lot of your points... but you go too far. Everyone agrees that this will be bad for the economy but some people are speaking like everything has stopped and this is false.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

They are predicting that worldwide GDP will fall by 1.9% in 2020. 

Here are some numbers to put this 1.9% into perspective (from Wikipedia):

 

"According to the Department of Labor, roughly 8.7 million jobs (about 7%) were shed from February 2008 to February 2010, and real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009, making the Great Recession the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression"

 

And keep in mind that in 2008/9, there was no lockdown, everything was open for business.

 

I haven't read anything yet, from multiple sources, saying that the actual crisis is going to be milder than the one of 2008/9.

 

In fact, most compare it to 1929 and the following years, some thinking that it will be worse...except Fitch it would seem...

 

 

[mauGR1]

4 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

Is this an economic war to prepare for the tilting of empires and the collapse of the West? "

The way i see it, is not the West or the East that is suffering more, but it's the average citizen in the whole world which is suffering from the crisis.

[Assurancetourix]

3 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

The way i see it, is not the West or the East that is suffering more, but it's the average citizen in the whole world which is suffering from the crisis.

As usual, unfortunately

[chessman]

13 minutes ago, AlQaholic said:

It is simple, take the number of reported deaths and divide that with 0.01, that's the total number of current cases.

nonsense

[AlQaholic]

This pandemic has made me curious about the global flu that annually kills 250,000 - 500,000 people worldwide. I'm just wondering how these deaths are distributed, the elderly with pre-existing conditions? Or just anybody at random? I would suspect the former. Then comes the question if the death is from old age, the pre-existing condition or the flu? If it is considered death by the flu, as the statistics states, why in the year of 2020 are there more than 250,000 people dying from an illness that has been around for centuries? Or were most of the deaths actually caused by old age or pre-existing conditions? At what point do we stop care for a person and just let the person pass away by natural causes? I guess this is a dilemma encountered by health workers all the time.

Edited April 8, 2020 by AlQaholic

[chessman]

19 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

Is that a statement or a question ??

A statement

[cornishcarlos]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

A statement

 

Ok

[AlQaholic]

11 minutes ago, chessman said:

nonsense

Well, it works with other statistics from trustworthy countries like Finland, I take the reported deaths and divide, voila I get close to the actual reported cases. The denominator should be between 0.01 and 0.02.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by AlQaholic

[chessman]

13 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Here are some numbers to put this 1.9% into perspective (from Wikipedia):

 

"According to the Department of Labor, roughly 8.7 million jobs (about 7%) were shed from February 2008 to February 2010, and real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009, making the Great Recession the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression"

 

And keep in mind that in 2008/9, there was no lockdown, everything was open for business.

 

I haven't read anything yet, from multiple sources, saying that the actual crisis is going to be milder than the one of 2008/9.

 

In fact, most compare it to 1929 and the following years, some thinking that it will be worse...except Fitch it would seem...

 

 

The 1.9% is for the world. It will be higher in the US.

 

I think we can both find statistics to back our points. In the last 25 years, the US has had one year and one year only in which GDP went down (2009). By 2010 it was (again) higher that it has ever been. Economies don't die or stop, they recover quickly.

[toofarnorth]

20 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Animals are testing positive because people are waking up to the fact that it's a scam...

So they try another angle to scare you into submission... 

 

6 deaths in Singapore out of 1300+ cases, all with underlying conditions and most of them oldies...

The world is not disintegrating because of Covid, it's because of scaremongering and manipulation...

I agree with you and to add I think the virus is spreading  by the internet and other media.   

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, chessman said:

The 1.9% is for the world. It will be higher in the US.

 

I think we can both find statistics to back our points. In the last 25 years, the US has had one year and one year only in which GDP went down (2009). By 2010 it was (again) higher that it has ever been. Economies don't die or stop, they recover quickly.

After 2008, there has been no real recovery...the economy has been kept alive by extraordinary means, such as zero or even negative interest rates, and constant injections of (fake) money called QE.

 

At no time since 2008 was the economy able to stand on its feet all by itself, and to cope with real free market conditions.

 

Now, it is this very weak economy that has been hit by a pandemic.

 

Expecting it to recover quickly is like expecting an 80 year old with diabetes, infected with the coronavirus, to recover quickly, while he is lying under a ventilator...

 

 

 

[losworld]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

After 2008, there has been no real recovery...the economy has been kept alive by extraordinary means, such as zero or even negative interest rates, and constant injections of (fake) money called QE.

 

At no time since 2008 was the economy able to stand on its feet all by itself, and to cope with real free market conditions.

 

Now, it is this very weak economy that has been hit by a pandemic.

 

Expecting it to recover quickly is like expecting an 80 year old with diabetes, infected with the coronavirus, to recover quickly, while he is lying under a ventilator...

 

 

 

The stock market has been pumped up on low volume courtesy of high frequency trading and the fed to name a few.  It was only logical that any significant event causing any significant selling would make the bottom fall out.  And for anyone rushing to buy at this time there is a saying in the market "never catch a falling knife".

[chessman]

10 minutes ago, AlQaholic said:

Well, it works with other statistics from trustworthy countries like Finland, I take the reported deaths and divide, voila I get close to the actual reported cases. The denominator should be between 0.01 and 0.02.

 

Fair enough but if you cherrypick the countries you can make the death rate anything you want from 0% to 13ish %. Different countries are in different stages of the outbreak, a couple of weeks ago a poster here was using Germany as the example to argue that the death rate was significantly under 0.5%.

 

Even your Example of Finland - this does not work. 34 deaths from 2308 cases. That is 1.5% no? Or maybe I misunderstand your post.

[Bangkok Barry]

23 hours ago, xylophone said:

Ah numbers.............and just yesterday I was talking to a friend on the phone and trying to put into perspective the chances of catching and then dying from Covid here.

 

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have an slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

 

There are loads of figures out there about people who have contracted the virus and the percentage that have died as a direct result (or as near as can be ascertained) but nowhere have I found that my chance of dying of it here, and by that I mean catching it and then dying from it, are...... what?? 

As of now:

Number of cases worldwide: 1,431,706

Number dead worldwide: 82,080

Number of cases in Thailand: 2,258

Number dead in Thailand: 27

 

Population of Earth: 7,800,000,000

Social and Economic damage: Unimaginable

 

[nickmondo]

18 hours ago, xylophone said:

I was hoping that some mathematician on the thread would be able to answer this for me, but as yet no one has stepped up.

 

What I'm looking for are the odds of dying from Covid-19 here if I am a normal healthy person. For example, when there is lightning about, folks often say that it's okay to go out in it because the chances of someone dying from being hit by a bolt of lightning are one in 10 million (for example), so that's what I'm looking for with regard to this virus.

 

Any suggestions?

its pretty easy to work out

what is the population here?

divide that by how many deaths here.

that is your answer, and you can do it on a daily basis

 

[AlQaholic]

7 minutes ago, chessman said:

Fair enough but if you cherrypick the countries you can make the death rate anything you want from 0% to 13ish %. Different countries are in different stages of the outbreak, a couple of weeks ago a poster here was using Germany as the example to argue that the death rate was significantly under 0.5%.

 

Even your Example of Finland - this does not work. 34 deaths from 2308 cases. That is 1.5% no? Or maybe I misunderstand your post.

I admit I oversimplified the case, there are so many factors affecting the death rate, such as the proportion of the population that are elderly, the proportion of those that has pre-existing conditions and the proportion that are young with pre-existing conditions, and in which stage the country is in. If we look at Sweden for example, the percentage is almost 8%, which may point to a large part of undetected cases but also to the fact that there are many old people in Sweden. Anyway I was just trying to make the point that if there is a very large discrepancy between reported cases and actual cases the number of deaths can be an indication of where the status of the pandemic is in that country, considering that both countries are at approximately the same stage.

[chessman]

24 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

As of now:

Number of cases worldwide: 1,431,706

Number dead worldwide: 82,080

Number of cases in Thailand: 2,258

Number dead in Thailand: 27

 

Population of Earth: 7,800,000,000

Social and Economic damage: Unimaginable

 

So what is the 'Bangkok Barry' solution?

 

Remember - it is not the cases and deaths you mention above that are scaring governments. It is the exponential growth.

Edited April 8, 2020 by chessman

[Brunolem]

20 minutes ago, nickmondo said:

its pretty easy to work out

what is the population here?

divide that by how many deaths here.

that is your answer, and you can do it on a daily basis

 

I gave the same answer a few pages back.

[chessman]

46 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

After 2008, there has been no real recovery...the economy has been kept alive by extraordinary means, such as zero or even negative interest rates, and constant injections of (fake) money called QE.

 

At no time since 2008 was the economy able to stand on its feet all by itself, and to cope with real free market conditions.

 

Now, it is this very weak economy that has been hit by a pandemic.

 

Expecting it to recover quickly is like expecting an 80 year old with diabetes, infected with the coronavirus, to recover quickly, while he is lying under a ventilator...

 

 

 

So is there any way of judging the strength of an economy? It's all just smoke and mirrors? Why are we arguing about GDP when it's all fake anyway.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by chessman

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

 

Remember - it is not the cases and deaths you mention above that are scaring governments. It is the exponential growth.

Srangely enough these same governments are not scared by the exponential growth of debt...that will end up bringing far more misery than the virus...

[Bangkok Barry]

1 minute ago, chessman said:

So what is the 'Bangkok Barry' solution?

 

Remember - it is not the cases and deaths you mention above that are scaring governments. It is the exponential growth.

Isn't there supposed to be a leveling off soon? If that doesn't happen, although there are signs that it is, then is the time to put on panic measures. At the moment, the cure is looking to be worse than the disease. As for Thailand, someone on another thread raised this, which I've expanded:

 

Less than 30 deaths in Thailand from the virus in nearly two months, but the country and normal life have to stop. Curfew, international airports closed to all but emergency flights, most businesses shut down, hundreds of thousands out of work and with no income.

Also in Thailand, 30 deaths on the road each DAY, and nothing happens.

 

[armadillo215]

The coronavirus traveled all over the world from Wuhan China, but it did not reach Beijing or Shanghai or other major cities in China. Can anyone explain how is that possible?

There are so many questions, after all, where it all started, in China, the Chinese stock market did not collapse, but the American and European markets did, and when those markets collapsed, the Chinese bought a lot.

All roads lead back to China

1. They created a virus for which they already had an antidote.

2. They purposely spread the virus for financial gain.

3. There is a clear demonstration of efficiency to such an extent that they built hospitals in a few days. To build so many hospitals they had to be prepared with organized projects, for example, with the ordering of equipment, the hiring of labor, the water and sewerage network, the prefabricated building materials and the storage in an impressive volume. Everything happened so fast that everyone was speechless.

4. They caused chaos in the world, beginning with Europe and the rest of the western worlds.

5. Quickly decimating the economies of dozens of countries.

6. Stop production and manufacturing lines in factories and primary production in dozens of countries.

7. Causing the stock markets to crash and then they bought stocks, bonds and companies at bargain prices.

8. They then quickly gained control of the epidemic in their country. After all, they were ready and he was never really out of control.

9. In all this, they managed to lower the price of basic products, including the price of oil.

10. Now they are going back to mass production while the rest of the world is stopped.

Also note how quickly Chinese unions activated to "hoard" purchases of bus cargo to regional shopping centers across Australia, stripping our shelves of toilet paper and staple foods.

It happened before most of us knew what was happening, even before we knew what the Coronavirus was.

 

[Brunolem]

Just now, chessman said:

So is there any way of judging the strength of an economy? It's all just smoke and mirrors? Why are we arguing about GDP when it's all fake anyway.

GDP is not fake, but one has to look behind the curtain.

 

These days, Western economies need 3 to 4 dollars of new debt to add 1 dollar of GDP.

 

If one looks only at GDP, everything looks more or less fine, but if one looks at how the growth is achieved, it is less than reassuring.

 

World GDP = 85 trillion dollars, world debt = 255 trillion dollars