TDRI again. Didn't the boss get away with stealing someone else's academic work a while back? American lady - had to flee Thailand because he sicced his mates on her by all accounts... I'm sure the press was active on that a few years ago, except the Nation as I recall..

 

Good reputations are lost in a heartbeat, bad reputations are accumulated surprisingly easily.

3 hours ago, tjo o tjim said:

Herd immunity is unlikely to occur based on some studies on the antibody levels in recovered individuals.  

 

The reality is this will come in waves, and keep coming, so we need to be able to take logical steps to manage it.  In the US, this means increasing airborne infection isolation room count along with ICU beds...  I am a little surprised/concerned by the delta in infection rates in the US and most other countries.  It is clear that testing is not happening at sufficient levels in many places, but there is more to it than that.

 

May we learn from this one...

 

 

Agreed.

 

But of course, we won't.

 

 

 

As long as they apply social distancing I don't see why open-air bar beers and the deck chair vendors on the beach shouldn't be allowed to open again at an early stage. A lot of people, myself included, are really missing some social activity, just a chat from a safe distance apart and a beer or two. Nothing shared, and wearing face masks, of course, lol.

"They should travel by ordinary, rather than air-con, buses in order to reduce risks of coming into contact with the virus"

 

So then open places should be better than closed places with air conditioning and recycled air.

 

The beer bars should open pretty early on then - at the same time as the small outdoor restaurants. 

20 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

Because this guy knows that it is really the economic damage that is destroying the majority of lives... and not the virus. 

21 hours ago, webfact said:

They should travel by ordinary, rather than air-con, buses in order to reduce risks of coming into contact with the virus.

Actually, Air con filters can be fitted with N95 rated filters and when maintained can actually clean the air as opposed to non filtered air. Buses, even with open windows encapsulate expired particles. Air con can actually filter those particles out. 

Edited April 11, 20206 yr by Tounge Thaied
spelling error

34 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

Thanks to this table we can see what other countries also see, is that young people do not die from Covid;
we therefore wonder why the schools are closed.
and on closer inspection we see that up to the age of 50 there is practically no death;
so why stop a whole national economy for 3 dead!

There are an average of 60 to 70 a day on the road in Thailand and no one has yet had the brilliant idea of eliminating motor vehicles because of this.

You seem to miss the point that 'young' people don't die from this but they can still transmit it thus possibly killing someone else.

Something must be done. There are barely any cases here. 2500 total, with just over 30 deaths, and people are behaving like this is the final zombie apocalypse. It is beyond inane. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 150,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid.

 

OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Taiwan had 376 cases as of April 7, or only 16 infections per 1 million population – half Thailand’s infection rate of 32 per million. Although it discovered its first case only one week later than Thailand, Taiwan’s infection rate has been much slower since total cases reached 100.

 

Taiwan is only testing about 1,500 people per million people, or about one-sixth of South Korea’s testing rate. Taiwan’s outstanding results derive instead from tracking risk groups and applying strict quarantine.

Thailand should stop trying to make any comparisons with Taiwan. That's quite absurd if you know the full story. There are no parallels that will help Thailand.

 

Taiwan was hit very hard (3rd worst in the world) by SARS-CoV-1 and since 2003 they have been preparing for another outbreak, with a very organised game plan with what they call "Central Command Centers", if such an outbreak occurred again.

 

They knew about the virus outbreak before China announced it.

 

Watch this video to see how they handle it.

 

From the video, starting at 4:07:

 

Dr Steve Kuo (former Director-General, Taiwan CDC):

 

"The SARS outbreak is (was) a wake up call for Taiwan, and we learn a lot from the SARS outbreak.....

 

...we pick up the signal that there is some strange outbreak in the Wuhan areas, at the end of the last year, from social media networks. We decided and we did send two medical doctors to Wuhan from Taiwan CDC to get a better understanding of what happened there, OK, and then five days later, on January 20 the government decided immediately to set up and activate the Central Command Centers."

 

That centralized command center launched border restrictions before almost anyone else... set local quantartine rules and turned to technology. One phone app allows Taiwan residents to find stores with masks in stock. Another app provides information on all of those that are covid-19 positive, where they've been and their case histories, and the government made sure it had enough medical equipment.

 

Dr Steve Kuo:

 

"After the SARS outbreak, we have the law to require hospitals to have a stockpile for all medical supplies for 30 days for the hospitals"

 

Another reason Taiwan acted so early, they didn't trust either the Chinese Government or the head of the World Health Organisation who in January praised China's response.

 

William Stanton (former top US diplomat in Taipei, Taiwan)

 

"He (WHO) was just defending the Chinese position and echoing what they had to say and it made the Taiwanese even more suspicious of what the Chinese were doing. China doesn't allow Taiwan into the WHO, and that's really stupid because Taiwan is one of the main countries of the world that has expertise on international health issues"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Translated:
We have found an effective way to repress and control all members of society, globally, and we will pull the flu boogie-man out of the closet frequently to keep society dancing to our commands - and they will obey.
Never again will we simply allow a flu to infect humankind and allow human evolutionary defenses to work by developing herd immunity, to allow the weakest to die and the strongest to survive and thrive.  "Experts", scientists, and technocrats know better than mother nature.  And psychopathic control freaks will be set loose on humanity to enforce their edicts with the hand, the rod, and the boot. 

 

"The perfect dictatorship would have the appearance of democracy, a prison without walls in which the prisoners would not dream of escape. A system of slavery where, through consumption and entertainment, slaves would love their servitude."

-- Aldous Huxley

 

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.

-- George Orwell

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 20206 yr by connda

23 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Something must be done. There are barely any cases here. 2500 total, with just over 30 deaths, and people are behaving like this is the final zombie apocalypse. It is beyond inane. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 150,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid.

 

OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

There's a problem with pointing out the low number of deaths in Thailand.  

 

Thailand will use this low number to demonstrate the success of locking the country down and switching off the lights.

 

Of course, to determine the true extent of the pandemic, much more testing would need to be done.

 

You think Thailand is overreacting. I heard a press briefing today out of New Zealand that 2 more people had died, bringing the tally to 4. Old people with underlying conditions, of course. They are locked down tight.

 

Low tallies will always be used as proof of success and a reason to continue lockdowns.

 

 

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

 

This is for Thailand as of April 3.

Classification		Cases		Deaths		Lethality (%)
		n	(%)	n	(%)
Gender	Male	1074	(54.30)	17	89.47	1.58
	Female	827	(41.81)	2	10.53	0.24
	Unknown or Awaiting Confirmation	77	(3.89)	-	-	-
Age	0-10	27	(1.37)	0	(0)	(0)
	11-20	49	(2.48)	0	(0)	(0)
	21-30	484	(24.47)	0	(0)	(0)
	31-40	462	(23.36)	1	5.26	0.22
	41-50	349	(17.64)	2	10.52	0.57
	51-60	256	(12.94)	8	42.11	3.13
	61-70	144	(7.28)	1	5.26	0.69
	71-80	54	(2.73)	5	26.32	9.26
	81 or above	11	(0.56)	2	10.52	18.18
	Unknown or Awaiting Confirmation	142	(7.18)	-	-	-
Total		1978	(100.00)	19	(100.00)	(0.96)

 

Highest death rate at 12.94% is 51-60 yrs. 

Greatest number of spreaders are in their 20s and 30s.

 

Edited April 11, 20206 yr by rabas

52 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Something must be done.

You have perfectly summarized the situation.
One can legitimately ask the question: is this wanted by the hundred or two hundred families?

 

Sorry no link in english, only french and spanish 

 

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deux_cents_familles

 

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_doscientas_familias

35 minutes ago, connda said:

Translated:
We have found an effective way to repress and control all members of society, globally, and we will pull the flu boogie-man out of the closet frequently to keep society dancing to our commands - and they will obey.
Never again will we simply allow a flu to infect humankind and allow human evolutionary defenses to work by developing herd immunity, to allow the weakest to die and the strongest to survive and thrive.  "Experts", scientists, and technocrats know better than mother nature.  And psychopathic control freaks will be set loose on humanity to enforce their edicts with the hand, the rod, and the boot. 

 

"The perfect dictatorship would have the appearance of democracy, a prison without walls in which the prisoners would not dream of escape. A system of slavery where, through consumption and entertainment, slaves would love their servitude."

-- Aldous Huxley

 

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.

-- George Orwell

 

 

 

And there you have it folks... when will the sheeples awaken?

5 minutes ago, Tounge Thaied said:

And there you have it folks... when will the sheeples awaken?

O enlightened one! ????

22 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

Without money, there is no health.

6 minutes ago, KhaoNiaw said:

O enlightened one! ????

Man suffers only because he takes seriously what the force creates for fun.

In my Yoda voice. ☺️

22 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

It is unrealistic for the world to lockdown for a long period - there will be far more deaths caused by economic pain than the virus itself. I don't envy any politician who has to make the ultimate decision to get things back reopened. 

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Something must be done. There are barely any cases here. 2500 total, with just over 30 deaths, and people are behaving like this is the final zombie apocalypse. It is beyond inane. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 150,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid.

 

OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

Absolutely right. Over 100,000 people have died but who cares. MONEY comes first. 150,000 deaths you say. Not much really. Should see that in the nxt couple of wks. Millions starving to death? Funny really how the CCP ideal of world dominance and the collapse of capitalism may actually end up with the collapse of communism in China and a more equatible system in the west. Who knows but will be interesting to see. Maybe WWIII will be the outcome.

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

a safe distance apart and a beer or two. Nothing shared, and wearing face masks, of course, lol.

Have you actually tried drinking beer through a face mask?Yuck!

23 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

I'm no expert either but no Covid 19 after 30 days might be the way to go. There's now a fear in China that the virus could come across from the Russian border side. Then there's the other countries still with the virus, it might take up to 2 years to clear Indon. 

23 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Not just him, I think the majority of the world that has been put into forced lock down will be itching to get back to work/business... There will come a time when economic necessity, out weighs the  health risks !! 

Correct. Prolonging the lockdown 'cure' will be a disaster in terms of the well-being and livelyhoods of people all over the world.

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Absolutely right. Over 100,000 people have died but who cares. MONEY comes first. 150,000 deaths you say. Not much really. Should see that in the nxt couple of wks. Millions starving to death? Funny really how the CCP ideal of world dominance and the collapse of capitalism may actually end up with the collapse of communism in China and a more equatible system in the west. Who knows but will be interesting to see. Maybe WWIII will be the outcome.

Just bear in mind that in the UK alone 650,000 people die every year, while 750,000 are born.

2 hours ago, tropo said:

There's a problem with pointing out the low number of deaths in Thailand.  

 

Thailand will use this low number to demonstrate the success of locking the country down and switching off the lights.

 

Of course, to determine the true extent of the pandemic, much more testing would need to be done.

 

You think Thailand is overreacting. I heard a press briefing today out of New Zealand that 2 more people had died, bringing the tally to 4. Old people with underlying conditions, of course. They are locked down tight.

 

Low tallies will always be used as proof of success and a reason to continue lockdowns.

 

 

Many use this same argument. However, it does not hold water. Why? Because you had over a million Chinese tourists running around the country in December, and again in January, as this thing was blowing up in China. Nearly a million in February prior to the lockdown of Chinese, and an equal number of Europeans. All in close proximity. No social distancing. Mingling with Thais and others. If this thing were going to blow up, it would have blown up by now. You do not need to do massive testing. You only need to wait a week or two. If this was a cover up, they would have been outed online long ago. And the hospital lobbies, and streets would be littered with corpses. This is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse. Some seem to be hoping for that. Some seem to love the panic and uncertainty. Sorry to disappoint. The heat is devastating Covid in Thailand most other tropical countries as we speak. Brazil is the only one with over 5,000 cases, while it rages in the US and Europe. 650 cases in the past 8 days, and only 13 deaths. That is not a major outbreak. Not even close. We are quite safe here. 

53 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Just bear in mind that in the UK alone 650,000 people die every year, while 750,000 are born.

And I'm sure people are still dying. Old age, cancer, heart attacks etc guess you need to add to that.

The part I don't like is where he says Nana plaza won't reopen..

45 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Many use this same argument. However, it does not hold water. Why? Because you had over a million Chinese tourists running around the country in December, and again in January, as this thing was blowing up in China. Nearly a million in February prior to the lockdown of Chinese, and an equal number of Europeans. All in close proximity. No social distancing. Mingling with Thais and others. If this thing were going to blow up, it would have blown up by now. You do not need to do massive testing. You only need to wait a week or two. If this was a cover up, they would have been outed online long ago. And the hospital lobbies, and streets would be littered with corpses. This is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse. Some seem to be hoping for that. Some seem to love the panic and uncertainty. Sorry to disappoint. The heat is devastating Covid in Thailand most other tropical countries as we speak. Brazil is the only one with over 5,000 cases, while it rages in the US and Europe. 650 cases in the past 8 days, and only 13 deaths. That is not a major outbreak. Not even close. We are quite safe here. 

Would be great if you were right. But, why on earth have they implement lockdown measure similar to those deployed in western Europe where the death toll is appalling? Maybe those who think it is propaganda are right. My wife has her own version, she reckons it killed the mobs and riots that were bound to develop earlier this year.

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Many use this same argument. However, it does not hold water. Why? Because you had over a million Chinese tourists running around the country in December, and again in January, as this thing was blowing up in China. Nearly a million in February prior to the lockdown of Chinese, and an equal number of Europeans. All in close proximity. No social distancing. Mingling with Thais and others. If this thing were going to blow up, it would have blown up by now. You do not need to do massive testing. You only need to wait a week or two. If this was a cover up, they would have been outed online long ago. And the hospital lobbies, and streets would be littered with corpses. This is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse. Some seem to be hoping for that. Some seem to love the panic and uncertainty. Sorry to disappoint. The heat is devastating Covid in Thailand most other tropical countries as we speak. Brazil is the only one with over 5,000 cases, while it rages in the US and Europe. 650 cases in the past 8 days, and only 13 deaths. That is not a major outbreak. Not even close. We are quite safe here. 

It is not an argument. Does everything need to be an argument?

 

I saw studies about how hot weather affects the SARS-CoV-2 long before you started ranting about it on here, but it's not the point.

 

I made a statement that irrespective of your theories, governments will use low death rates to justify their methods of mitigation and use them as a reason to continue lockdown.

 

You need to convince the Thailand government of their errors and you'll need a lot more than theories to do that. Good luck!

 

No one wants to take a chance that your theory is wrong, because that means people might die, and these people only have one life. It's not like you can set up an experiment using people like lab rats.

 

It's easy for you to sit back and relax, and theorize, but is it your father or mother at risk, or grandparents? You have to see it from the people's point of view. It's real people dying, but when you see numbers on a screen, the human element disappears.

 

 

 

9 hours ago, rumak said:

GOD !   Can we please just stop using the word EXPERT  in every discussion. 

 

Ex - a has been.

Spurt - a drip under pressure.

 

 

The S6HO(soi6 health organization) and the WSHO(walking street health organization have not yet elaborated on the current situation as it very fluid and mentioned a stern probe would be needed ,followed by a good old fashioned spanking....