Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

[Incobart]

3 hours ago, Incobart said:

ok I checked some other countries and there it more between 40 and 60 % more deaths, you got me here ????

I read now that the difference is that most countries only count the C-deaths in hospital, not the ones die at home or in elderly houses.

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, ParkerN said:

You are quite wrong but I don't feel the need to explain why, you're allowed to think whatever you want to think and i wish you every joy from it.

 

Now, if you're finished explaining and justifying to yourself why you should feel superior to me, I'll let you be on your way. Kindly close the door on the way out. Preferably from the other side.

Yes, you find an easy way out. Just say that I am wrong, without any foundation at all. I do not feel superior at all. One thing though. You say you do not feel the need to explain? Explain what? Show me what support your comment instead. I understand exactly what you are talking about. The problem in my opinion, is that you use the word "not feel the need" for some thing that you can´t find support for.

[Redline]

No problem,  but it will never stop spreading without proper testing.  South Korea was testing 16,000 per day, and detailed contact tracing-thus it’s successes

[Redline]

Not to pop the bubble 

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/12/999117/blueprint-what-it-will-take-to-live-in-a-world-with-covid-19/?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20200413&instance_id=17600&nl=dealbook&regi_id=50295943&segment_id=24954&te=1&user_id=83381f746d407ed983b66eefb3f4f759

[SkyFax]

12 hours ago, pacovl46 said:

LOL! Epoch times! Known to post publish conspiracy theories. 
Joshua Philipp, supposedly an award winning investigative journalist, yet none of his “awards” are listed anywhere. He very much appears to be a conspiracy theorist as well. 

Phyllis Schlafly Eagles award *

Sep 2019
"To Joshua Philipp with appreciation for your dedicated work for God, Family, and Country."

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshua-philipp-a08b867

 

NB: Phyllis Stewart Schlafly (1924-2016) was a movement conservative and author. She held staunchly conservative social and political views ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phyllis_Schlafly

Edited April 15, 2020 by SkyFax

[Sharp]

3 hours ago, Redline said:

Not to pop the bubble 

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/12/999117/blueprint-what-it-will-take-to-live-in-a-world-with-covid-19/?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20200413&instance_id=17600&nl=dealbook&regi_id=50295943&segment_id=24954&te=1&user_id=83381f746d407ed983b66eefb3f4f759

Absolute BS is this going to happen. 

We going to live with it and people will accept the 1% death rate. 

Probably less when it rinces out. 

[diks]

20 hours ago, Incobart said:

ok, I give an example for my country and I am sure it is reliable and comparable to other countries

Belgium middle of Europe, 11 mil people, death rate normally 9.2/1000, that is ruffly 100.000/year or 272 per day.  covid victims average per day around 250,  how many % is that ?

Are you sure? According to your explanation that would add up to 272 plus 250 or 522 total dead per day. There is absolutely no evidence for that. The problem is how the victims are being counted. Just because they have been tested or often only because they have been in contact with a COVID infected person, they are counted as a COVID death. There is hardly anybody dying of COVID, however people die with COVID because of underlying problems. How many corpses are being examined to truly find out why they died?

In any case the number of deaths has gone up a little in Belgium but not by 80% at all. https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
 

[Mung]

8 hours ago, Sharp said:

Absolute BS is this going to happen. 

We going to live with it and people will accept the 1% death rate. 

Probably less when it rinces out. 

Unless it mutates to become more virulent, which is more and more likely with more infections, which is why we need to keep things on the lock down as much as possible until there is a vaccine. The Spanish flu did a similar thing; The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic.

[pacovl46]

22 hours ago, Matzzon said:

There is nothing that is hard to understand. As I wrote in another post, I am really not interested in that people that get well in home is being tested. Approx. 2 % of all that get sick need hospital. What is important to keep down, and the important numer to keep as low as possible is death per capita, which Thailand is mighty good at. How do you hide those numbers. I also wrote the difficulty of that in another post in this thread, so I am not going to repeat myself. I guess you just have to comprehend, as you put it.

Mate, don’t evade the subject matter! You’ve posted that your money is on the official Thai numbers because they’re involved and they’re experts and I’m telling you that the official numbers CANNOT be the actual numbers because they don’t do extensive testing! 
 

If you don’t see the logic in that please don’t bother to reply because I really, really don’t want to waste my time! 

[Matzzon]

15 minutes ago, pacovl46 said:

Mate, don’t evade the subject matter! You’ve posted that your money is on the official Thai numbers because they’re involved and they’re experts and I’m telling you that the official numbers CANNOT be the actual numbers because they don’t do extensive testing! 
 

If you don’t see the logic in that please don’t bother to reply because I really, really don’t want to waste my time! 

If you do not want to waste your time, why did you then post this? It´s a total waste of time. The numbers in Thailand is based on the testing that has been done, as all countries numbers. Therefore there is no hiding the numbers. If you do not understand that, then please waste a little bit more time.

Never evading any subject. The numbers known is what I believe correct. If there is 2 million more that already have, or are recovering without the need of a hospital then that number is not important. Same with any yearly flu. You only get the ones that need help or that dies into the statistics, Everything else is mostly computer generated estimations.

But, whatever you will reply with or if you not reply, I will say bye to you here. It´s fruitless to have any discussion with a person that denies all numbers given and believe he know much better. Better turn to your support group among poster instead.

[pacovl46]

11 hours ago, SkyFax said:

Phyllis Schlafly Eagles award *

Sep 2019
"To Joshua Philipp with appreciation for your dedicated work for God, Family, and Country."

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshua-philipp-a08b867

 

NB: Phyllis Stewart Schlafly (1924-2016) was a movement conservative and author. She held staunchly conservative social and political views ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phyllis_Schlafly

The award you mentioned is an award given to people by the Eagles Forum. While I’m not disputing it’s validity or existence, to me it’s like Thai Visa giving you the Thai Visa Forum award. 
 

I went to their website to check wether he really won that award and the last time they awarded it, according to their own website, was in 2018.

 

https://eagleforum.org/projects/eagle-awards.html

Then I googled who won the award in 2019 and nothing came up. What I find also funny is that the award isn’t mentioned on her Wikipedia page.
 

Then I googled ‘what is the Phyllis Schlafly Eagle Award’ and what came up is the link mentioned above and nothing else.

 

In conclusion, that award is so prestigious that you can’t even find any info on what it actually is on the first page of a google search.

 

 

 

[pacovl46]

9 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

If you do not want to waste your time, why did you then post this? It´s a total waste of time. The numbers in Thailand is based on the testing that has been done, as all countries numbers. Therefore there is no hiding the numbers. If you do not understand that, then please waste a little bit more time.

Never evading any subject. The numbers known is what I believe correct. If there is 2 million more that already have, or are recovering without the need of a hospital then that number is not important. Same with any yearly flu. You only get the ones that need help or that dies into the statistics, Everything else is mostly computer generated estimations.

But, whatever you will reply with or if you not reply, I will say bye to you here. It´s fruitless to have any discussion with a person that denies all numbers given and believe he know much better. Better turn to your support group among poster instead.

???? Wow!

 

You said it yourself, the numbers in Thailand are based on the testing, which is very minimal in Thailand and therefore obviously the numbers can’t be correct and still you insist on the numbers being correct. 
 

Well, you’ve just outed yourself! ????
 

This was just posted on TVF:

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s death toll from the coronavirus could run some 15% higher than official figures have indicated so far, according to broader data published on Tuesday that include deaths in the community such as in nursing homes.

 

The Office for National Statistics said 6,235 people in England and Wales had died by April 3 with mentions of COVID-19 on their death certificates.

 

“When looking at data for England, this is 15% higher than the NHS numbers as they include all mentions of COVID-19 on the death certificate, including suspected COVID-19, as well as deaths in the community,” ONS statistician Nick Stripe said.

 

This most likely applies to Thailand as well. 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by pacovl46

[Nino1986]

How can be effective while even the tests arent reliable, they dont make autopsies for bodies they just throw them into mass graves.

[Nino1986]

Just now, Nino1986 said:

How can be effective while even the tests arent reliable, they dont make autopsies for bodies they just throw them into mass graves.

I wonder how many funerals happened in those pandemics from people die in car accidents, from every days accidents or they just put on the paper reason of death: Covid-19 and they dont even need to test a people to claim that doctor can decide on his own if this person died from Covid-19 or not...come on

[Redline]

19 hours ago, Sharp said:

Absolute BS is this going to happen. 

We going to live with it and people will accept the 1% death rate. 

Probably less when it rinces out. 

Where is it one percent?

[lkv]

9 minutes ago, Redline said:

Where is it one percent?

5% of confirmed cases death rate. Some 3% some 8%, Italy 10%.

 

Estimated 5 to 10 times more unconfirmed cases. Indonesia estimated up to 50 times more unconfirmed than the reported numbers (and that was a while ago).

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/indonesia-could-have-thousands-of-hidden-coronavirus-cases-study-says

 

I would also kindly multiply the numbers reported by Thailand by 50.

 

So out of the total confirmed and unconfirmed, maybe 1%.

Edited April 15, 2020 by lkv

[Redline]

8 minutes ago, lkv said:

5% of confirmed cases death rate. Some 3% some 8%, Italy 10%.

 

Estimated 5 to 10 times more unconfirmed cases. Indonesia estimated up to 20 times unconfirmed.

 

So out of the total confirmed and unconfirmed, maybe 1%.

Pretty sketchy numbers considering unconfirmed are guesses.  This is a new virus, and it’s only existed a few months.  The experts don’t even have near accurate numbers, and you picked em right out of a hat ???? the lottery peeps must hate you.  Did you calculate possible reinfections?

Edited April 15, 2020 by Redline

[lkv]

8 minutes ago, Redline said:

Pretty sketchy numbers considering unconfirmed are guesses.  This is a new virus, and it’s only existed a few months.  The experts don’t even have near accurate numbers, and you picked em right out of a hat ???? the lottery peeps must hate you

I've added a link in my previous post, before you posted, and was modifying some numbers. In particular to Indonesia being 50 times more.

 

Yes of course they are estimates, but we need to be working with models, and models dictate when restrictions are lifted step by step. And those are also estimates. But they will prove to work just fine in the case of Europe. Because we are careful about lifting restrictions.

 

Hopefully Thailand will do the same.

Edited April 15, 2020 by lkv

[lkv]

15 minutes ago, Redline said:

Did you calculate possible reinfections?

That is too early to determine. If immunity lasts for 6/12/18 months we will find out in 6/12/18 months.

Edited April 15, 2020 by lkv

[BKKBike09]

When the government administers testing, patients are divided into three categories. Patients who test positive with no symptoms are sent home to self-quarantine. Patients displaying symptoms are labelled a person under investigation (PUI) and monitored at a hospital until they no longer show symptoms. Patients with a severe reaction to the virus are sent to the ICU.

 

From an interview with Dr Boon Vanasin, Chairman of Thonburi Hospital Group (18 hospitals, 3,000 beds) that's in 'the other paper' today. 

 

I'm hoping that this is just poor translation but if not, it's a fascinating insight into what 'PUI' actually means. How many of those are there now?

 

He emphasises need for more testing to identify people who have the virus without knowing it, to reduce transmission to others. According to the article, "he estimates the actual number of infections at as much as 40 times higher than reported".

 

[tjo o tjim]

You need random community testing to be done continuously, but as the good doctor originally stated, you can’t just test people to control the infection rate. 
 

The purpose of community testing is to make policy decisions. Going in blind is more expensive than doing the tests... even when you need to test 10,000 people (every week) to get statistically significant data,

Edited April 16, 2020 by tjo o tjim

[pacovl46]

13 hours ago, Redline said:

Where is it one percent?

It’s 6.47% as of writing this post.

[DrTuner]

10 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

I'm hoping that this is just poor translation but if not, it's a fascinating insight into what 'PUI' actually means. How many of those are there now?

Here's the definition of PUI: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_PUIdefinition.pdf

 

There are 36,495 of them according to last MoPH report: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/file/situation/situation-no103-150463_1.pdf

 

There might be some differences in how private hospitals do it, but this is the guideline for hospital admission from MoPH itself: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_cpc.pdf

 

It's all available in https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/guidelines.php and https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php in English. English report is often 1 day older than the Thai version. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

13 hours ago, lkv said:

That is too early to determine. If immunity lasts for 6/12/18 months we will find out in 6/12/18 months.

Only estimate I have seen is from the Jacob Glanville, CEO of Centivax, a company that specializes in antibodies. His guess was 8-10 weeks.

 

 

[lkv]

@Redline

 

Estimated detection rates per country update on 14 April with data up to 30 March.

 

The real number of infections in the population.

 

https://reason.com/2020/04/12/official-covid-19-numbers-represent-just-6-of-total-infections-a-new-analysis-suggests/

 

COVID-19-update-1.pdf

Edited April 17, 2020 by lkv

[lkv]

.

Edited April 17, 2020 by lkv

[FarFlungFalang]

34 minutes ago, lkv said:

Estimated detection rates per country update on 14 April with data up to 30 March.

 

The real number of infections in the population.

 

I notice China detected 1200 deaths overnight!