Patients under investigation??

[bermondburi]

Official confirmed new cases today 30

New patients under investigation today 1043.

Total patients under investigation 36,000+

 

Who are these people? Why does no one talk about them? 

[Puccini]

What is there to talk about it?

 

Ah, yes:

 

1. Based on what criteria is a person classified as "under investigation".

 

2. What exactly is being investigated, using what methods?

 

3. Based on what investigation results is a person "under investigation" moved to what other classification? 

[bermondburi]

11 hours ago, Puccini said:

What is there to talk about it?

 

Ah, yes:

 

1. Based on what criteria is a person classified as "under investigation".

 

2. What exactly is being investigated, using what methods?

 

3. Based on what investigation results is a person "under investigation" moved to what other classification? 

Yeah, that's a start. 

[happydays]

From the same website as your screenshot:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_PUIdefinition.pdf

[Don Mega]

According to another thread those 30 new cases are local to Pattaya.

[geisha]

Thousands of Thais are said to be having pneumonia, I’ve personally never heard of so many outbreaks all over Thailand. Anyone else ?
Also, when these people die , it is registered as From unidentified cause .

[Enoon]

 

Don't ask, don't tell.

 

 

 

[Thailand]

11 minutes ago, geisha said:

Thousands of Thais are said to be having pneumonia, I’ve personally never heard of so many outbreaks all over Thailand. Anyone else ?
Also, when these people die , it is registered as From unidentified cause .

A source would be useful.

[ifmu]

56 minutes ago, geisha said:

Thousands of Thais are said to be having pneumonia, I’ve personally never heard of so many outbreaks all over Thailand. Anyone else ?
Also, when these people die , it is registered as From unidentified cause .

i get your drift .. those are probably the cv that will not be tested

[geisha]

46 minutes ago, Thailand said:

A source would be useful.

 

46 minutes ago, Thailand said:

A source would be useful.

Thousands of Thais are said to be having pneumonia, I’ve personally never heard of so many outbreaks all over Thailand. Anyone else ?
Also, when these people die , it is registered as From unidentified cause .

[Phulublub]

1 hour ago, geisha said:

 

Thousands of Thais are said to be having pneumonia, I’ve personally never heard of so many outbreaks all over Thailand. Anyone else ?
Also, when these people die , it is registered as From unidentified cause .

You have posted this twice now, and despite being asked have failed to substantiate your numbers.  A little hypocritical to accuse the Thai authorities of massaging figures and then produce hearsay scaremongering "nrews" without any evidence whatsover.

 

If there are multiples of the usual number of people dying, where are all the bodies?   Why no news, even anecdotal,from locals some of us know and who have family ties up country?

 

Put up, or shut up.

 

PH

[Almer]

3 hours ago, geisha said:

Thousands of Thais are said to be having pneumonia, I’ve personally never heard of so many outbreaks all over Thailand. Anyone else ?
Also, when these people die , it is registered as From unidentified cause .

Is this fact or what you have been told?

[Almer]

1 hour ago, Phulublub said:

You have posted this twice now, and despite being asked have failed to substantiate your numbers.  A little hypocritical to accuse the Thai authorities of massaging figures and then produce hearsay scaremongering "nrews" without any evidence whatsover.

 

If there are multiples of the usual number of people dying, where are all the bodies?   Why no news, even anecdotal,from locals some of us know and who have family ties up country?

 

Put up, or shut up.

 

PH

Don't post again unless you can give chapter and verse, scaremongering  doesn't help anybody, give the facts like where and how many and let the authorities defend themselves.

i have posted this before, where are the bodies, i live  close to a site for to send people good and bad young and old to the future and if anything it is quieter than normal, you may be right but a friend of a friend does nothing for a storey

[geisha]

Sorry, I don’t know what happened with my post or why it got posted thrice ! There have been quite a few articles mentioning pneumonia for three months now. At first I thought nothing of it . There is one article further up this thread.´

[geisha]

I was not scaremongering. Sorry but haven’t kept the articles, I would have thought many would have read them. 

[Phulublub]

2 minutes ago, geisha said:

Sorry, I don’t know what happened with my post or why it got posted thrice ! There have been quite a few articles mentioning pneumonia for three months now. At first I thought nothing of it . There is one article further up this thread.´

And Donald Trump has said, at various times, that the birus is under control, that everything is perfect, that China was doing a great job and being transparent, that anyone who wants a test can get one, that it is all a hoax, that the US can open up again  y Easter, or y the end of this month and on and on and on....

 

Doesn't make any of it true though, just like you seeing something in " a few articles"  that "mention" something  means more than the square root of <deleted> all.

 

Once again - where are all the piles of dead bodies if Thailand really has lots of people dying?

 

PH

[Enoon]

2 hours ago, Phulublub said:

You have posted this twice now, and despite being asked have failed to substantiate your numbers.  A little hypocritical to accuse the Thai authorities of massaging figures and then produce hearsay scaremongering "nrews" without any evidence whatsover.

 

If there are multiples of the usual number of people dying, where are all the bodies?   Why no news, even anecdotal,from locals some of us know and who have family ties up country?

 

Put up, or shut up.

 

PH

 

The Thai government page address for the COVID outbreak was originally created before the virus was named for what it is:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/index.php

 

But on the page the heading declares it to be the COVID page.

 

This is what it says:

 

 

All you have to do is believe 36,561 sick patients have passed through the system and only 2,672 have been positive and only 46 have died from COVID.

 

That makes the recorded death rate for Thai infected individuals less than 2%.

 

In the UK the death rate for infected individuals is over 13%.

 

Do you think the heat is keeping infected Thais alive?

 

What many believe is that only a few have been tested, and that those that die without being tested do not get tested post-mortem and are classed as dying from "something else".

 

Given that yesterday, on Thaivisa, a spokesperson was saying that it wasn't economically viable to test people, that seems a reasonable assumption.

 

There is a very great capacity for burning bodies in Thailand.

 

You can't turn around without seeing a crematorium.

 

There are three crematoriums, at least, in a 6k radius centred on a crematorium 4k from me.

 

The bodies go straight home (if they haven't already died there, which many do), the rites are performed at home and they are burnt at the local crem swiftly after.

 

They don't all die in the same place, they don't all get burnt in the same place.

 

They are spread around the country, they are spread around each province, each amphoe, each tambon.

 

Less the 4 Islamic provinces there are 72 provinces in Thailand.

10000 deaths divided by 72 = 138 per province.

138 divided by 6 (weeks) = 23 deaths per province per week.

 

That's why there are "no piles of bodies" or queues for crematoriums anywhere.

 

The ill thought out "what about all the bodies?" thing is getting really old.

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Enoon

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, Phulublub said:

And Donald Trump has said, at various times, that the birus is under control, that everything is perfect, that China was doing a great job and being transparent, that anyone who wants a test can get one, that it is all a hoax, that the US can open up again  y Easter, or y the end of this month and on and on and on....

 

Doesn't make any of it true though, just like you seeing something in " a few articles"  that "mention" something  means more than the square root of <deleted> all.

 

Once again - where are all the piles of dead bodies if Thailand really has lots of people dying?

 

PH

Simply playing Devils Advocate but I live 12 miles from central London which is the epicentre of the pandemic in the UK.

However I do not know personally of one single victim , that includes social media ' friends '.

The pandemic here is all over the news media 24/7 and there are tens of thousands of confirmed infections with several thousand deaths. However there are no reports of people dying in the streets , hospitals and morgues under siege or any other indicators of the type you infere.

Also bear in mind the British media is rather more dogged than its Thai counterparts and there is no computer crimes act to deter netizens spreading ' fake 'news , there have been several warnings in Thailand regarding the later.

In reality , though the potential is there , Covid has not massively increased the death rate in the UK in a way that would be noteworthy.

I make no claim that Thai authorities are hiding deaths , though the relative number of tests ,and uncertain clarifications , make the official number of infections utterly unrealistic in regard to the true situation.

That said , if deaths and cases were being hidden , your narrative would not disprove the fact.

Edited April 16, 2020 by joecoolfrog

[blackcab]

The very best data would be the computerised death statistics straight from the government's national database.

 

As a result of the Thai ID card and house book system, I personally believe that most Thai people are registered in the national database.

 

I also believe that deaths of Thai people in Thailand are reported to the District Office and an entry is made in the database.

 

It would be a simple matter to compare total deaths by day, week, month, year to date, district, province, etc. and compare the data to previous years.

 

You can cremate any number of bodies, but those sorts of computerised statistics tell their own story.

 

Strange nobody is talking about them. 

[shy coconut]

The previous 2 posts are quite interesting, certainly good to see differing opinions

and both have merit.

 

I do believe that in the UK the ICUs are coping due to regular operations being 

cancelled and, clearly, the lockdown is stopping the virus spreading out of control,

leading to an overwhelming amount of critical patients, I'm not sure the hospital

built inside the Excel has actually been needed, I could be wrong.

 

As for Thailand, the authorities seem to have the approach of identifying people

who have been in contact with positive patients, isolating and monitoring them.

It seems to be working ok at the moment. I'm not entirely sure that mass testing

is the answer. Suppose you are tested on a Monday but on Wednesday you pick 

up the virus. All testing tells you is that on a certain day you didn't have the virus,

if you were negative of course! 

 

South Korea up until the beginning of the month, were the poster nation for testing,

yet they had tested less than 800,000 people which is roughly 1 in 60 of the population.

I'm not sure what the criteria was, perhaps they didn't test children as they seem to

be less at risk than others, although I don't know if they can spread it.

 

A lot of supposition from me, I admit, but maybe there are some real virologists

here who can put me right!!

[blackcab]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Not really because the numbers are being distorted by the lockdowns effecting the normal numbers of road deaths.

 

Road deaths total a few tens per day. If hundreds of people per day are dying from Covid19 you would still see an increase in mortality.

[FarFlungFalang]

5 hours ago, blackcab said:

 

Road deaths total a few tens per day. If hundreds of people per day are dying from Covid19 you would still see an increase in mortality.

Yes good point.I did find a table of flu deaths between 2006-2011 which showed the total of each year and they varied from about 1500 to about 3500 for an average of 2708 so you may have a problem trying to interpret the figures you're talking about when comparing total deaths but I agree it would be interesting to view such data.Also covid19 might be causing many deaths that would otherwise be caused by the flu.

Edited April 17, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[rickudon]

PUI - people Under investigation - are only ever tested if there is a direct link to an existing known case or are suspected to be from a risky group (e..g. returned from overseas and are sick). Otherwise just told to self isolate for 15 days.

 

Although half the UK deaths re in London, that has only raised the overall death rate by 100%. I.e. twice as many people are dying compared with the average for this time of year. Across the country, the increased death rate is only about 40%. Interestingly, of the 100% rise in London, only half is attributed to Covid-19. That is probably because the other half were never tested......

 

So it is easy to see that if you do not test, you can hide a lot of deaths from the virus. This has become obvious due to the mass deaths in nursing homes in the UK, they rarely ever get tested. Thailand? there was a report that in January the number of pneumonia deaths shot up, then that data became no longer available (at least from the previous source).

 

So there could be a case of miraculous luck in Thailand, or there could be deliberate under estimation of Covid-19 deaths. Currently i'm not sure which applies.....

[bermondburi]

Nearly 4000 new PUIs today. For a country with almost zero cases, that's a lot. 

[Puccini]

I wonder if they are persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and only if they develop symptoms typical of Covid-19 will they be counted as Covid-19 cases.