COVID-19: CCSA worries that relaxed measures may cause 2nd wave of infection

[webfact]

CCSA worries that relaxed measures may cause 2nd wave of infection

 

   

BANGKOK(NNT) - The Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration or CCSA has admitted that there are concerns about the possibility of a second wave of a COVID-19 viral outbreak. However the authority has resolved to do its best.

 

Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin, as CCSA spokesperson expressed the CCSA’s concerns about a further relaxation of measures that may lead to a second outbreak. The spokesperson said today the authority has been evaluating collected information and surveys since the first phase of relaxation, and assured the public that the CCSA will work with care to prevent renewed infections in the future.

 

As for the second phase of relaxed measures, a misunderstanding has been identified concerning television program production that could be limited to five people in total. The spokesperson said it was only a draft that will need to be addressed. The public sector can send advice to CCSA.

 

CCSA also appreciated the “SHARING PANTRIES” scheme initiated by members of the public sector to encourage sharing of commodities with other virus lockdown subjects. To maintain the benefits of such a good project, citizens should maintain social distancing and spaced queueing. And most importantly, take just enough and leave some for others.

 

Source: http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG200512162307623

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2020-05-13

[YetAnother]

4 minutes ago, webfact said:

CCSA has admitted that there are concerns about the possibility of a second wave of a COVID-19 viral outbreak.

astonishing; Of Course there will be a second wave !; look at the overall discipline of thais as far as groups; they cant do it; stock up on alcohol

[JCP108]

But, there wasn't a first wave, was there? Did I miss it?

 

Also, what does this mean? Confused.

 

"a misunderstanding has been identified concerning television program production that could be limited to five people in total"

 

Does that mean that if I produce a television show in my apartment, I can only include four people other than myself in the project? 

[edwinchester]

Recently went to a couple of our local banks to try and pay some money into our daughters savings accounts and turned straight back around as the queues were horrendous. Several hundred people shoulder to shoulder with no distancing whatsoever waiting to get through the bank doors.

Perfect opportunity for the virus to spread if ever there was.

[BobbyL]

They continually mention the 'second wave'. There has not been a real first wave, and as history has shown in pandemics, a second wave would come much further into the future.

 

It seems like the CCSA are talking about a wave that lasts a month or two before moving onto a new wave which is completely and utterly wrong. 

[bluesofa]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

As for the second phase of relaxed measures, a misunderstanding has been identified concerning television program production that could be limited to five people in total. The spokesperson said it was only a draft that will need to be addressed. The public sector can send advice to CCSA.

'a misunderstanding', 'only a draft'? If implemented it would put the kibosh on Chatuchak and all markets.

[mrfill]

Germany, who have done better than a lot of their neighbours, released less than a week ago and already the R number is over 1.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52632369

[Bkk Brian]

A second wave is a huge possiblity for all countries, South Korea, Germany and it looks like China now all have another potential wave incoming. This is to be expected. What is happening though quite rightly is that they already know that and have the measures in place to quickly attack with a pre determined and published strategy. Test, extensive contact tracing, quarantine, treat.

 

If you have the confidence in your countries abilities to do that then you should be easing lockdown measures as soon as your numbers are under control

[mrfill]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

A second wave is a huge possiblity for all countries, South Korea, Germany and it looks like China now all have another potential wave incoming. This is to be expected. What is happening though quite rightly is that they already know that and have the measures in place to quickly attack with a pre determined and published strategy. Test, extensive contact tracing, quarantine, treat.

 

If you have the confidence in your countries abilities to do that then you should be easing lockdown measures as soon as your numbers are under control

A lot of the problems were caused through health systems not being prepared. Now that the extra facilities are in place, the health systems can cope with the odd spike without collapsing. That, in conjunction with the other prerequisites you mentioned, should mean a second wave is manageable.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, BobbyL said:

They continually mention the 'second wave'. There has not been a real first wave, and as history has shown in pandemics, a second wave would come much further into the future.

 

It seems like the CCSA are talking about a wave that lasts a month or two before moving onto a new wave which is completely and utterly wrong. 

If their numbers are to be believed, there was (The shape is probably there-abouts, the height not) :

http://www.asymco.com/

 

 

The "wave" is caused by the lockdown decreasing the R0. As soon as the re-open it'll jump right back up because they don't have an effective test & track network in place.

[alyx]

I am not a medical doctor but according to some influential medical authorities (e.g Pr Raoult from

France and others ) a second wave is highly improbable for this kind of virus which might become seasonal 

 

[pizzachang]

3 hours ago, JCP108 said:

But, there wasn't a first wave, was there? Did I miss it?

 

Also, what does this mean? Confused.

 

"a misunderstanding has been identified concerning television program production that could be limited to five people in total"

 

Does that mean that if I produce a television show in my apartment, I can only include four people other than myself in the project? 

When you have (as in Chiang Mai) 2 complete 14 day quarantine cycles, with NO new infections, I do wonder where the "virus" could be hiding?  For a "pandemic" , this is historically the best one ever - You get all the drama, panic and still have an infection rate of less than 1% and a survival rate of 99.4%.  So worrying about a "second wave, seems like an anti-climax.

[ben2talk]

2 hours ago, edwinchester said:

Recently went to a couple of our local banks to try and pay some money into our daughters savings accounts and turned straight back around as the queues were horrendous. Several hundred people shoulder to shoulder with no distancing whatsoever waiting to get through the bank doors.

Perfect opportunity for the virus to spread if ever there was.

Exactly - they won't change the culture. You MUST physically travel to the bank, simply doing it digitally is out of the question.

 

That was a major culture shock to me back in 2001, and nothing changed since then... though my wife did take time to find ways to avoid 2-3 branch visits per month, there are still several unavoidable ones which - to me - seem totally pointless.

 

Last time I went, some 4 months ago we had a conversation in Kasikorn about how important it is to keep those people in jobs.

 

The worry is that, as the need for physical workers is reduced, the benefits only get fed up to the super rich.

Edited May 13, 2020 by ben2talk

[ericdiam]

When was first real wave even? 3000 cases from begin till today on 66 milj people. That is really peanuts. Even if count not fully correct and sure some more. But sure not many as otherwise we would have had much more deaths and bodies you can't get rid of that easily. For me this country is really ready to open fully. Just try keep bit distance and keep the masks 

[SMEinBangkok]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin, as CCSA spokesperson expressed the CCSA’s concerns about a further relaxation of measures that may lead to a second outbreak.

Imagine having such a limited intellect as a 'doctor' to actually believe that there WON'T be a second outbreak.  In the absence of a deployed, safe and effective vaccine, along with a decades-long public health campaign, the coronavirus isn't going to be eliminated.  There's no science behind these junk theories and there's no history to suggest this will work.  

 

After the senior man-babies have bankrupted everyone worldwide, they'll understand they have to manage the effects of this virus and attempt to protect those most at risk from serious outcomes from infection.  Waging a war against the healthy and those least at risk is pointless.

[ubon farang]

We can go on and on about this Virus. But they have to open up the country full stop. Next year there will be another virus. a virus just changes to suiet itself that is why you cannot get an antidote for them. Not like Measels ,  Whopping cough etc

[Sunderland]

Let's see if traditional flu seasons are a factor here in Thailand. Thailand usually has almost no cases of influenza during April and early May. Flat as a pancake for most of April.

But the numbers pick up during June and July before peaking in August.

Ecuador's flu season peaks in March, which coincided with the time when thousands of people got the virus there, with 'thousands' of excess deaths this year in the first 2 weeks of April in the city of Guayaquil compared to an average year.

Thailand will be golden only when a vaccine is found or the virus has burned itself out or mutated into something less harmless.

Also, is there a reason why migrant workers in Singapore, The Maldives, Qatar and the U.A.E. are being infected in their thousands compared to migrant workers in Thailand? Is it the chilli???

[Moonlover]

6 hours ago, JCP108 said:

But, there wasn't a first wave, was there? Did I miss it?

 

There have been quite a few proposers of the theory that Thailand had its first wave before we'd even heard about C19. There were many visitors from China, including Wuhan, before the infection was formally recognized and it's possible that the first wave passed through the country without anyone being aware of its existence.

 

So yes, you could well have missed it.

[DirtyHarry55]

It's a very infectious disease so unless there's a vaccine very soon there will be a second wave and probably more but we have to learn to deal with it without shutting down the economy.
The Sweden model could be the answer.

 

[vermin on arrival]

20 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

There have been quite a few proposers of the theory that Thailand had its first wave before we'd even heard about C19. There were many visitors from China, including Wuhan, before the infection was formally recognized and it's possible that the first wave passed through the country without anyone being aware of its existence.

 

So yes, you could well have missed it.

Interesting that you say that: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3932712

 

Title: Coronavirus may have been spreading since Wuhan Military Games last October

Suspected cases among international athletes months before China's first report to WHO

 

[DirtyHarry55]

54 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Interesting that you say that: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3932712

 

Title: Coronavirus may have been spreading since Wuhan Military Games last October

Suspected cases among international athletes months before China's first report to WHO

 

I think It would have escalated much sooner like in November.
But better leave the experts to decide on that.

Edited May 13, 2020 by DirtyHarry55

[Moonlover]

53 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Interesting that you say that: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3932712

 

Title: Coronavirus may have been spreading since Wuhan Military Games last October

Suspected cases among international athletes months before China's first report to WHO

 

And here's a link to an article which refers to the research in connection with this notion. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/08/covid-19-pandemic-may-have-started-october-says-uk-french-study/

[vermin on arrival]

Just now, DirtyHarry55 said:

I think It would have escalated much sooner like in November.

Well maybe there were deaths just shrugged off as pneumonia in Thailand. For sure there are reports of deaths in France from it in December now from Nasal swabs.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554 Coronavirus: Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'

[DirtyHarry55]

Just now, vermin on arrival said:

Well maybe there were deaths just shrugged off as pneumonia in Thailand. For sure there are reports of deaths in France from it in December now from Nasal swabs.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554 Coronavirus: Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'

Yea it could be the case but it's not fact yet lets wait for more solid evidence
I still think it would have escalated out of control much earlier had that been the case.

[vermin on arrival]

and another study from Cambridge stating may have started mid September to early December: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/did-pandemic-start-earlier-than-we-think/1833486

[DirtyHarry55]

14 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

and another study from Cambridge stating may have started mid September to early December: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/did-pandemic-start-earlier-than-we-think/1833486

That's not a study from Cambridge and are your implying Cambridge University?
So far it seems Frances first case may have been December.

[vermin on arrival]

18 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

That's not a study from Cambridge and are your implying Cambridge University?
So far it seems Frances first case may have been December.

"Meanwhile, a study released last month by Cambridge University in the UK brought forward a similar finding, suggesting that the virus may have been circulating even before December"

“While yet to be peer-reviewed, the latest work suggests that the first infection and spread among humans of SARS-CoV-2 occurred between mid-September and early December,” the university said in a statement on April 9.

 

Directly stated in the article if you read it. Mid way through after heading 'First infection occurred in September' Unless the writer is fibbing.

Edited May 13, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[AgMech Cowboy]

Thailand had a ripple, not a wave. At some point the Government will have to open the economy. That doesn't necessarily mean the beach or bars, but the deaths from starvation, robberies and suicide will be increasing. So, yes, Thailand will most likely experience a wave.

[DrTuner]

42 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

and another study from Cambridge stating may have started mid September to early December: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/did-pandemic-start-earlier-than-we-think/1833486

That would have been the D614, same as I theorize went over Thailand without much fuss. First reference to a mutation I've seen was in the video of the Chinese nurse in Wuhan stating so in mid January. Could've been the G614.

[DrTuner]

5 hours ago, pizzachang said:

When you have (as in Chiang Mai) 2 complete 14 day quarantine cycles, with NO new infections, I do wonder where the "virus" could be hiding? 

It hides in asymptomatic people that have not been tested. There hasn't been a real quarantine, which would indeed bring R0 to 0 and kill it ( and the economy with it ) , but a leaky lockdown.