Gulf Of Thailand Won't Rise With Global Warming, Expert Claims

[ThaiGoon]

whatever sound logic seems to be applied here is flawed. the seas are indeed not level. differences up to two meters exist... that is a fact whether you believe it or not.

[cdnvic]

And contrary to incorrect information in the other thread on this, the Panama canal does not have locks due to the different levels of the Atlantic and Pacific (Pacific is usually 20cm higher due to prevailing winds and being slightly less dense due to salinity differences), it's because the canal actually travels over mountain lakes and it would have to be cut impossibly deep to run across Panama as a level canal. If it was the 20cm difference that was the issue a simple lock at the entrance would suffice.

[taxexile]

6. Are long term changes in sea level the same everywhere?

No. Long term changes in sea level measured at the coast (e.g. by tide gauges) are a consequence of 'real' changes in the level of the ocean (e.g. due to climate change), to which must be added changes in the level of the land.

Changes in ocean level due to climate change can be greater in some places than others because the ocean circulation will adapt to accommodate the new climate regime (see the IPCC reports for a review). Most knowledge of the global pattern of vertical land movements comes from geological data which are included in geodynamic models of the Earth. The main geological process involved is called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). For example, in the UK, GIA results in sea level rising less rapidly in Scotland than in southern England. However, there are other geological processes, violent changes due to earthquakes being the most dramatic. Land level changes are now being investigated by geodetic research groups using the Global Positioning System and Absolute Gravity techniques. See again the PSMSL training web pages. [return to top]

14. How much does sea level rise if all the world's ice melts?

To a first approximation, if all the floating sea ice in the world melted, there would be no change in sea level at all, as the floating ice will have displaced its own weight of water. However, if land ice melts, that will raise sea level. All the world's glaciers and small ice caps contain approximately 0.5 m of sea level equivalent between them, while the great Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contain approximately 7 and 61 m respectively. Consequently, if all the wolrd's ice melted in a very much warmer world, sea level would be approximately 70 m higher.

However, when land ice melts the distribution of the mass of water around the global ocean is by no means uniform. A large melting would result in a modification in the Earth's gravity field which would result in the sea level change being higher in some places than in others. [return to top]

Edited April 24, 2007 by taxexile

[JR Texas]

First, I don't think any of the posters on here have any sound idea whether the professor makes sense or not. This is especially so since these are very technical issues that are sometimes reported by people who don't understand what's being said--so they get it down wrong or take it out of context. A poster has already made this point.

Second, what's the basis to generalize to other professors or Thais, generally? That's just more of the prejudice one sees on here on a regular basis. And please, there's a big difference between criticizing something and making sweeping generalizations. The former is ok if rational, the latter is naked prejudice.

JR Texas: Thailand is a special place...so special that even the Gulf of Thailand does not respond to the laws of physics :D :D .............seriously.....maybe there was a translation problem related to another problem that I will not mention

[dumspero]

JR Texas- Have you read the posts on here? I don't know if they're right, but it makes sense to me for the reasons stated that the levels could vary. In particular, aren't the gravitational forces exerted on the planet all part of the physics to which you refer?

But if you're responding to the second part of my post--we just disagree. I don't think Thais are laughable, ridiculous or stupid and you seem to be implying (although not stating) that they are. And not just in a joking, clever way if somehow that might be ok. Up to you, but you're missing most of the wonders around you with that attitude...

[cdnvic]

I think people are getting thrown off by the variations in sea level that exist throughout the world. While these variations are a fact, they do not mean that water from melting glaciers and snow caps are all going to pile up somewhere while the rest of the world's oceans remain unchanged.

The mean sea levels of the Atlantic and pacific will continue to be different from each other, but the overall level of all seas around the world will rise accordingly as well. The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns will still be there to cause differences, but they cannot stop the volume of contiguous water that makes up the world's oceans from growing larger.

[easy_jim]

I'm a bit surprised by the simplistic responses to this Professor's claim. He may or may not be right but either way the issue is not as simple as most posters seem to think.

The sea is not level. It is pulled out of shape by a complex interaction of the magnetic pulls of the earth, the moon and the sun and the lay of the land around which the water is pulled. You cannot make broad generalisations about sea level for the whole planet.

This is why the Gulf of Thailand has a diurnal tide (only two tides a day) while the Andaman Sea has the more common semidiurnal tide (four tides a day).

[ThaiGoon]

I think people are getting thrown off by the variations in sea level that exist throughout the world. While these variations are a fact, they do not mean that water from melting glaciers and snow caps are all going to pile up somewhere while the rest of the world's oceans remain unchanged.

The mean sea levels of the Atlantic and pacific will continue to be different from each other, but the overall level of all seas around the world will rise accordingly as well. The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns will still be there to cause differences, but they cannot stop the volume of contiguous water that makes up the world's oceans from growing larger.

It would have been nice if you had cited the source of that comment as well. I was just reading very similar things especially this part "The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns" on the internet somewhere. Hmmm. (I understand you wanted to appear smart, but at least cite the source.)

[dumspero]

cdnvic- But isn't it more complicated as some posters have noted?

If there are significant reductions in the ice caps, then couldn't that affect the tilt of the earth enough to counter or exaggerate in particular areas the overall rise in the amount of sea water in the oceans? In other words, there are differences now, and isn't it possible those differences would themselves vary as opposed to just having all levels rise uniformly?

And maybe there are other variables mentioned above or not yet mentioned that would change (i.e. not just gravitational forces) if the ice caps melted quite a bit?

[meadish_sweetball]

However, when land ice melts the distribution of the mass of water around the global ocean is by no means uniform. A large melting would result in a modification in the Earth's gravity field which would result in the sea level change being higher in some places than in others. [return to top]

The above quote taken from: http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/puscience/ .

Background

Since 1933, the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) has been responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data from the global network of tide gauges. It is based in Liverpool at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL) which is a component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The PSMSL is a member of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical Data Analysis Services (FAGS) established by the International Council for Science (ICSU). It is supported by FAGS, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and NERC.

The more I read about it, the more it seems Khun Suphat may be on to something.

[ThaiGoon]

cdnvic- But isn't it more complicated as some posters have noted?

If there are significant reductions in the ice caps, then couldn't that affect the tilt of the earth enough to counter or exaggerate in particular areas the overall rise in the amount of sea water in the oceans? In other words, there are differences now, and isn't it possible those differences would themselves vary as opposed to just having all levels rise uniformly?

True.

[Naam]

And contrary to incorrect information in the other thread on this, the Panama canal does not have locks due to the different levels of the Atlantic and Pacific (Pacific is usually 20cm higher due to prevailing winds and being slightly less dense due to salinity differences), it's because the canal actually travels over mountain lakes and it would have to be cut impossibly deep to run across Panama as a level canal. If it was the 20cm difference that was the issue a simple lock at the entrance would suffice.

correct.

[cdnvic]

cdnvic- But isn't it more complicated as some posters have noted?

If there are significant reductions in the ice caps, then couldn't that affect the tilt of the earth enough to counter or exaggerate in particular areas the overall rise in the amount of sea water in the oceans? In other words, there are differences now, and isn't it possible those differences would themselves vary as opposed to just having all levels rise uniformly?

And maybe there are other variables mentioned above or not yet mentioned that would change (i.e. not just gravitational forces) if the ice caps melted quite a bit?

Well, you never know. However, it's just a wild guess. A rise in mean sea levels due to the volume of water in the world's oceans increasing is not.

[Naam]

The sea is not level. It is pulled out of shape by a complex interaction of the magnetic pulls of the earth, the moon and the sun and the lay of the land around which the water is pulled. You cannot make broad generalisations about sea level for the whole planet.

and not to forget the gravitational forces caused by earth's rotation.

[taxexile]

........ or the lowering and sinking of the earths crust due to the extra weight of the water , or the rise in land levels due to tectonic plate movement.

[PeaceBlondie]

I think people are getting thrown off by the variations in sea level that exist throughout the world. While these variations are a fact, they do not mean that water from melting glaciers and snow caps are all going to pile up somewhere while the rest of the world's oceans remain unchanged.

The mean sea levels of the Atlantic and pacific will continue to be different from each other, but the overall level of all seas around the world will rise accordingly as well. The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns will still be there to cause differences, but they cannot stop the volume of contiguous water that makes up the world's oceans from growing larger.

Now, that's a good point: if land ice melts and adds 99 trilllion square meters of volume to the overall ocean mass (I'm using rough estimates ), then the entire ocean level might rise, still leaving the existing differences in height.

I ain't no hydrologist, but surely every language and culture has a cliche such as "water seeks its own level." During Hurricane Mitch, I stood on a plot of ground that was flooding, and four local Nicaraguan men were telling my Colombian profesora how to change her plot to prevent more mudslides into her lake house. I volunteered to contact my friend who has an MS in civil engineering and is practically a hydrologist, but the natives figured it out just fine.

I don't think most of the comedians in this thread were denigrating all Thais; just this expert hydrologist. And he has a point, up to a point.

Then again, how much land ice is melting?

[John K]

Beach front property for sale Rama 4 road. Buy now before the rush!

[lannarebirth]

If there's anything to the global warming phenomenon, then thermal expansion of the oceans will contribute much more to sea levels rising than just the additional volume of water from the icecaps melting. It requires incredible computer capacity to model the possible outcome of this phenomena and it may still be wrong. The truth is no one knows exactly what may happen and where, as many of the variables may change over time.

[Dakhar]

I think people are getting thrown off by the variations in sea level that exist throughout the world. While these variations are a fact, they do not mean that water from melting glaciers and snow caps are all going to pile up somewhere while the rest of the world's oceans remain unchanged.

The mean sea levels of the Atlantic and pacific will continue to be different from each other, but the overall level of all seas around the world will rise accordingly as well. The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns will still be there to cause differences, but they cannot stop the volume of contiguous water that makes up the world's oceans from growing larger.

It would have been nice if you had cited the source of that comment as well. I was just reading very similar things especially this part "The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns" on the internet somewhere. Hmmm. (I understand you wanted to appear smart, but at least cite the source.)

Just plain rude. Try that mouth at a gas station in America while you are pumping gas and street justice will be administered liberally, that I promise you.

[gummy]

First, I don't think any of the posters on here have any sound idea whether the professor makes sense or not. This is especially so since these are very technical issues that are sometimes reported by people who don't understand what's being said--so they get it down wrong or take it out of context. A poster has already made this point.

Second, what's the basis to generalize to other professors or Thais, generally? That's just more of the prejudice one sees on here on a regular basis. And please, there's a big difference between criticizing something and making sweeping generalizations. The former is ok if rational, the latter is naked prejudice.

I don't think the majority of the posters are being deliberate offensive to this Thai. It just so happens on this occassion that the interpretation of data by this professor has drawn certain conclusions which some of us find difficult to comprehend. In many many other situations you have differant and eminent scientists reviewing the same data and coming to totally differant conclusions, that is not to say either parties are being accused of stupidity. For example, and based on current data and evidence, you still have a very large group of people who still believe that the Americans landed on the moon in 1969 and that Princess Diana's death was an accident.

[meemiathai]

First, I don't think any of the posters on here have any sound idea whether the professor makes sense or not. This is especially so since these are very technical issues that are sometimes reported by people who don't understand what's being said--so they get it down wrong or take it out of context. A poster has already made this point.

Second, what's the basis to generalize to other professors or Thais, generally? That's just more of the prejudice one sees on here on a regular basis. And please, there's a big difference between criticizing something and making sweeping generalizations. The former is ok if rational, the latter is naked prejudice.

You just don't get it. These people criticize thailand because they love thailand.

[meemiathai]

I'm a bit surprised by the simplistic responses to this Professor's claim. He may or may not be right but either way the issue is not as simple as most posters seem to think.

The sea is not level. It is pulled out of shape by a complex interaction of the magnetic pulls of the earth, the moon and the sun and the lay of the land around which the water is pulled. You cannot make broad generalisations about sea level for the whole planet.

This is why the Gulf of Thailand has a diurnal tide (only two tides a day) while the Andaman Sea has the more common semidiurnal tide (four tides a day).

Are you thai too? Heys guys let's have a laugh at him too! Come on! Come on!

[cdnvic]

I think people are getting thrown off by the variations in sea level that exist throughout the world. While these variations are a fact, they do not mean that water from melting glaciers and snow caps are all going to pile up somewhere while the rest of the world's oceans remain unchanged.

The mean sea levels of the Atlantic and pacific will continue to be different from each other, but the overall level of all seas around the world will rise accordingly as well. The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns will still be there to cause differences, but they cannot stop the volume of contiguous water that makes up the world's oceans from growing larger.

It would have been nice if you had cited the source of that comment as well. I was just reading very similar things especially this part "The differences due to density, current, and wind patterns" on the internet somewhere. Hmmm. (I understand you wanted to appear smart, but at least cite the source.)

I didn't cite the source because the comment came from my own knowledge. I didn't have to look it up.

If you want to compare IQ's I'll stand toe to toe with you any day and guarantee you will emerge bruised and battered. I've seen how you debate with "idiot" and "stupid" and your contributions that you paste from elsewhere, and to be honest I think I can say quite confidently that my intelligence is superior to yours, and I'm far from the smartest guy around here so I suggest you go back to your books and study like a good little goon because if you want to start measuring up intelligence then you are far out of your league here boy.

You bleat on about how people here are insulting Thailand but in reality little casts Thailand in a worse light than your rude behaviour here.

[steveromagnino]

I ain't no hydrologist, but surely every language and culture has a cliche such as "water seeks its own level." During Hurricane Mitch, I stood on a plot of ground that was flooding, and four local Nicaraguan men were telling my Colombian profesora how to change her plot to prevent more mudslides into her lake house. I volunteered to contact my friend who has an MS in civil engineering and is practically a hydrologist, but the natives figured it out just fine.

I don't think most of the comedians in this thread were denigrating all Thais; just this expert hydrologist. And he has a point, up to a point.

Then again, how much land ice is melting?

well actually, there are a few factors at play. The issue of water density relative to temperature is a major one; so just talking about the impact of melting water is not enough - if the mean temp of each area goes up beyond 4 degrees C which is when water is densest (if I recall correctly) then it starts expanding, theoretically if might contract if the ice melts but is then going from sub zero up to 4C, as it would be denser and thus occupy less volume but this would be area specific; additionally, given that ice is fresh water, it also means that as it melts, the water borne ice such as Antartica is currently above water; upon melting it then does impact the mean water level as it was previously suspended above the water.

Your point water seeks its own level is true, but what factors affect level? Moon, sun, earth rotation, airpressure variation, prevailing current, sailinity variation, rainfall. The prevailing weather can push a lot of water up into the gulf. With certain weather patterns developing, we might see massive increases in water level in the gulf...or drops. That will be caused by larger worldwide patterns such as El Nino/la Nina/Gulfstream etc etc and many of these are caused by the salinity balance in the ocean which causes circulation of the water flow.

The average person (engineer or otherwise) is unlikely to be able to understand the macro factors involved in water height around the world in the same way that I also cannot. But I am not foolish or stupid enough to shoot my mouth off, just because my own simplistic education suggests that if the ice cubes melt the water level in my glass goes up, so therefore the water level is going to go up everywhere by an equal amount in the same way when it happens on a global scale.

Fascinating subject.

[Swelters]

Suggest reading the man's article before you cast your vote for village idiot.

Swelters

[aussiestyle1983]

So lets just say all the ice caps will melt one day, which they most likely will do. Considereing some of the caps that are below sea level won't really make much difference in terms of the water volume increasing or sea level rising, but I am guessing that the rise in sea levels will come from all the ice/ parts of the ice caps that are only above sea level that melt. So lets just say everything melts, what would be the maximum level the seas would rise?

This is very interesting because it is obviously going to happen and low lying areas in some places will be covered and people will need to re-locate, but just what sort of a rise are we talking about if everything melts? 1-2 or maybe even more meters........................

[midas]

I know there has been a lot of criticism on Fox News and CNN of the Al Gore Movie

" An Inconvenient Truth " - I have an open mind and when I saw it two months ago

I confess I believed what was presented - surely even if there are inaccuracies it can't all be wrong ?

In the movie he shows places like Shanghai and Calcutta being very severely affected-

so if they will be so badly hit I dont see why the Gulf of Thailand will be any different

[PeaceBlondie]

But aussiestyle, I don't know if it's quite that obvious. Remember that silly movie from two years ago, The Day After Tomorrow? It created such a new ice age that the top 65% of North America was frozen solid, and the Yankees swam the Rio Grande and became American wetbacks in Mexico!!

I begin to wonder if anything is obvious anymore. Everything is caused by 17 factors which create 87 effects. Like the man said, even supercomputers have difficulty making predictive models. Besides, wasn't it obvious that Young Einstein was a factual movie?

[bkkandrew]

First, I don't think any of the posters on here have any sound idea whether the professor makes sense or not. This is especially so since these are very technical issues that are sometimes reported by people who don't understand what's being said--so they get it down wrong or take it out of context. A poster has already made this point.

Second, what's the basis to generalize to other professors or Thais, generally? That's just more of the prejudice one sees on here on a regular basis. And please, there's a big difference between criticizing something and making sweeping generalizations. The former is ok if rational, the latter is naked prejudice.

You just don't get it. These people criticize thailand because they love thailand.

Is that some expat version of "tough love"?

[Pink Mist]

So lets just say all the ice caps will melt one day, which they most likely will do. Considereing some of the caps that are below sea level won't really make much difference in terms of the water volume increasing or sea level rising, but I am guessing that the rise in sea levels will come from all the ice/ parts of the ice caps that are only above sea level that melt. So lets just say everything melts, what would be the maximum level the seas would rise?

This is very interesting because it is obviously going to happen and low lying areas in some places will be covered and people will need to re-locate, but just what sort of a rise are we talking about if everything melts? 1-2 or maybe even more meters........................

Climate change will not happen, john howard just said it aint true again.