We were told in a company staff meeting yesterday, (one of the largest aviation companies in the world), that the  company had hired numerous outside analytical companies to figure out when the airlines would return to normal travel levels.

 

We are being told they don't expect the airlines to return to normal operating levels until late Q4 in 2022.

 

We have employees in 140 different countries and deal with every airline in the world.

 

Taking that for what it is worth, you have wonder if/how that will affect Thai tourism?

 

Q4 2022 is a long way off!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So many variables at play , in this situation . post Covid-19 era.

  Two years at least , providing , there is not another era, of pandemic panic ...

 

1 hour ago, bwpage3 said:

analytical companies

Whit crystal ball! They always carry 1 or 2 whit them! After what they have seen they give you 2 million $ invoice!

No warranty!

The tourist industry will be dead and buried by the 4th quarter 2022...   

Many airlines have been scrapping their older old aircraft. Look at the number of B747s, A340-600s, B777-200s plus numerous others that have already been retired. A380s are being put out to long term storage. B77X is now delayed to 2023. 8 B787s have been grounded with structural problems. Air France even got rid of its A380s before Covid hit. Many airlines are deferring deliveries. Long haul is definitely the hardest hit. I've seen estimates for 2023 for long haul. Thailand is not a high yield, business travel, destination for long haul operators. Emirates and Qatar make money through their hubs and drive the economy market.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/sia-plane-among-8-boeing-787-jets-affected-by-structural-issues-aircraft

 

On the positive front B737 Max should be back before the end of the year. EASA is concurrently conducting flight test in Vancouver. Thai Lion Air should finally be getting their B737-9 Max. The A321XLR is still on schedule for next year to finally start replacing the ageing B757s.

 

Here's Willie Walsh's views on airline recovery.

 

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/292820/iag-to-expand-capacity-but-says-recovery-will-take-three-years/

There should be some large M & A coming up soon.

Analysts get paid to speculate, but here on TV we just do it FOC ????

I work for Delta, and Ed Bastian the CEO is preaching much the same message.

 

I've said this in multiple threads, but until you see a robust rebound in domestic travel, the idea that the hoards are going to be boarding a plane to Thailand, wearing a mask for 10+ hours is pure fantasy.

 

Currently at my station I'm seeing domestic flights (we don't have international) running at best about 50% load factors, which means that the flights are flying at a loss.

 

There is a reason that Victorville, Alice Springs & Teurel storage facilities are bursting at the seams with airlines widebody fleets. There just isn't enough demand.

 

Wait to see when domestic travel rebounds, and international travel will probably trail that 6-12 months after that.

I am sending you a completely not free analysis that my cat Jeremy told me, normal flights will resume at the end of 2024, if the resumption is earlier we were just lucky that the flights resume earlier than expected.

Who do I send the invoice to?

20 minutes ago, ICELANDMAN said:

I am sending you a completely not free analysis that my cat Jeremy told me, normal flights will resume at the end of 2024, if the resumption is earlier we were just lucky that the flights resume earlier than expected.

Who do I send the invoice to?

Instead of being a jokester, I would be worrying about what will happen to the Thailand economy if no tourists show up in the next 2 years.

I don't doubt that under current circumstances that it will take  until Q4 2022 for long haul travel to reach pre-Covid levels. The analysis also  factors into the equation the financial impact of the pandemic with people not able to  afford the 25%-50% fare increases. Gone are the days of cheap fares..  However it is not all doom and gloom.

 

The analysis doesn't mean that all long haul traffic won't recover before then. We may very well see a return to some semblance of stability by Q4 2021.  Many countries have their vaccine orders in and have been preparing for a roll out. We most likely will see  a very long recovery  in some regions.  I expect that by  Q4 2021 we will see a return to high loads on the "western" , Asia Pacific and North America  long haul routes. South America,  SE Asia and Africa won't be  recovering for some time.

 

No one can actually estimate such things. It's all just speculations. Everything depends on politics and nothing else. Most goverments around the world are pretty happy with the emergency powers they have now over the population and won't give that up easily. I believe that once at least most governess lift all travel restrictions people will start travelling again. Sure, it won't be in the numbers of before covid as too many people are badly effected economically. But it will bounce back fast enough

Sadly for Thailand I think that this is probably a best case scenario. Places like Pattaya will have to reinvent themselves as shops, bars and restaurants are closing daily in what used to be tourist areas. 

Q4 of 2022, wow, that is 1 or 2 Q away from when we plan to finally leave thailand, child and me and free from ex-wife's grip of child not letting outside thailand