Dear Folks,

Arguably, most Americans are already depressed, and on meds, with good reason.

So, PSYCHOLOGICALLY Speaking, America is already in a Great Depression.

But let us confine our thoughts to whether or not the USA is headed for another Great Depression, ECONOMICALLY Speaking.

For one thing, USA housing prices are ridiculously high.

These days, shoe-box-size houses in dumpy neighborhoods in places like San Francisco, what I would call RABBIT-WARRENS, are selling in the MILLIONS, and with many homeowners suffering bad neighbors, too, like Clammy Sammy.  Obviously, due to the neighbors, the Russian Hill neighborhood is nothing more than a chocolate covered slum.

Now, in Russian Hill, one can expect RICH-FREAKS as neighbors, maybe like this duo:

WEALTH DISPARITY will be just ONE of MANY drivers.....OBVIOUSLY.

Is San Francisco sort of a microcosm of the rest of America, other than Maine, and Dubuque, Iowa?  The ENTIRE USA Housing Inventory is priced Sky-High; and housing developments full of neighbors nobody wants, not to mention the policing in such places being carried out by paramilitary in full combat gear.

Have things gotten out of hand in America?

And, really, objectively speaking, what is the writing on the wall, in terms of when the USA will be hit with a major depression, one which will make the 2008 crash seem like a minor burp.

What are the factors we see that make the next depression unavoidable?

Nobody enjoys a good depression, and yet they happen whether we like them or not.

So why is this happening now, meaning the crazy housing prices?

And, has money become almost worthless, compared to the value of money 40 years ago?

And, how will people live when this next major depression begins to really take hold?

Do you think ITR is on target, but off by about 8 years?

Will the next depression hit earlier than ITR predicts?

Why?

https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/top-5-causes-2030s-great-depression

Are you ready?

Best regards,

Gamma

Important Note: I am ready, because I choose NOT to live in places like San Francisco, where things will get WAY out of hand, in a hurry. If we think that things in SF are already looney, they are not. They are not compared to what is yet to come, and soon.

Edited 19 hours ago19 hr by GammaGlobulin

Another “the sky is falling “. thread.

None of the previous ones came true.

Why should we believe this one.

We still have 3 months before complete economic collapse that was predicted for the Trump 2 year mark by our resident financial guru and hedge fund manager @Wingate .

What, no 2-hour YouTube videos that nobody is going to watch? But where are the 3–4 Rolling Stones music videos from 40–50 years ago that nobody will watch either? Are you feeling okay, GrannyGlobs?

Well, at least you did include a photo of Altman, your greatest life obsession, a person who isn’t on 99% of other people’s radars either. But at least your man crush on him is still being well maintained.

And at least you’re consistent in offering up another farcical dystopian prediction that nobody else really worries about except maybe you. You seem like you perfectly match the stereotype of a doomsday prepper. Honestly, all that’s missing is the bunker and a lifetime supply of canned beans and sardines.

Edited 19 hours ago19 hr by Alpha84

Nothing is going to happen to the US economy, it's just too strong. Only thing that will stop it's growth is some humanitarian who thinks it's unfair they should be so wealthy. Cold hearted capitalism at their heart of their government will keep it the biggest super power in our life times.

All the social media nonsense about China ... give me a break.

30 minutes ago, DonniePeverley said:

Nothing is going to happen to the US economy, it's just too strong. Only thing that will stop it's growth is some humanitarian who thinks it's unfair they should be so wealthy. Cold hearted capitalism at their heart of their government will keep it the biggest super power in our life times.

All the social media nonsense about China ... give me a break.

One Important Driver I neglected to mention in the Original Topic is the Moral Corruption which has taken hold of America, increasingly, since the year 2000.

This factor is unquestionable.

And, this is just one of the several factors mentioned by this professor, JIANG XUEQIN, that will inexorably lead to an abrupt plunge into American Chaos, just as surely as the corruption which led to The GREAT FAMINE, and the Great Leap Backward, of China, 1950s, and through the 1970s.

This is scary stuff.

Just because it is scary, does not mean that this will not happen, and far sooner than most anticipate.

I am able to see far more clearly, simply because I have been living, for many years, OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE, which has been growing steadily for the past few decades.

NEARLY Every time i watch a video about the USA, I, and many others, can see this momentum growing, and the Tipping Point, judging by historical events, is way before 2030 closes.

1 hour ago, GammaGlobulin said:

I am able to see far more clearly

Now we’re back on track! Another link to another one-hour YouTube video that exactly nobody will watch. But that’s not even the only gem you’ve just given us.

I had to laugh when I read the part above. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a single poster on this site who would agree that you “see clearly” in any sense of the idea. 😂

Love the humor. Keep up the great work!

1 hour ago, Alpha84 said:

Now we’re back on track! Another link to another one-hour YouTube video that exactly nobody will watch. But that’s not even the only gem you’ve just given us.

I had to laugh when I read the part above. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a single poster on this site who would agree that you “see clearly” in any sense of the idea. 😂

Love the humor. Keep up the great work!

As you say, back on track.....

And, what I said is true; this is scary.....

It might be better to sticking with things you know about, as you haven't been to the US in decades and, like some others here, are only going by videos and some likely biased newscasts.

Most Americans are not depressed, the country isn't bad because of Trump, everyone I talk to daily there is doing well, with the only negatives the rise in some prices, which happens all the time everywhere.

Move back, like you said you would, and you'll see it's the same old country that was there all along. Some of us have family and friends there and visit yearly so know what's going on.

Doom and gloom videos by people who are likely depressed has some thinking things are worse than they are. Like a tourist visiting and thinking they know the country by eating in a few restaurants and seeing a few sites, you need to move back and live there to know.

Something is happening in America.

It's been collapsing since late 70s

Capital escaped to Asia factories.

Taxes were reduced for Rich people over and over again to trickle down.

It didn't work

A once great empire collapsing

Trump is the PERFECT figurehead for the collapse peak.

Have we fully collapsed yet?

Of course not.

France collapsed and Paris is still functional.

London collapsed yet rich people from the Middle East still launder their money there.

America: Old, Crippled and in the way. 🙈

1 hour ago, GammaGlobulin said:

And, what I said is true; this is scary.....

Are you shaking in your boots? You should be!

Thanks for your support from The American Association of The Blind

Trump is the greatest thing since sliced bread, perfect leader for North Korea -Russia-Iran Axis of Evil 😀 @Mr Awesome

Edited 12 hours ago12 hr by SiSePuede419
Axis supporters

In my lifetime, there haven't been many predictions that have come true, so I take them with a grain of salt. The only really big prediction I remember was in a newsletter put out by ARCO around 1970 that listed the reasons the USSR was going to dissolve. It was 20 years early but their point-by-point reasons were correct.

But then again, there are surprises

From AI

• 2.5 Months Before (July 15, 2008): Amid a massive credit crunch and mounting pressure on mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bush held a press conference declaring that the "long-term foundations of the economy" were strong.

  [1]

• 6.5 Months Before (March 14, 2008): Speaking to The Economic Club of New York, Bush explicitly argued against government intervention, stating that "massive government bailout[s] [are] not the answer" and pointing to low unemployment as proof of the economy's "fundamental strength." [1]

The Sudden Pivot:
The narrative changed abruptly on September 24, 2008. Just nine days after claiming the markets were resilient, Bush gave a televised Address to the Nation where he warned that "our entire economy is in danger" and requested the $700 billion TARP bailout program to prevent a "long and painful recession." [1, 2]

37 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Thanks for your support from The American Association of The Blind

Trump is the greatest thing since sliced bread, perfect leader for North Korea -Russia-Iran Axis of Evil 😀 @Mr Awesome

Once again, The American Association for the Blind should be looking forward to their "Glorious Victory" in upcoming election...

Lots of sunshine coming in November, snowflakes. 😅

8 hours ago, HolmesEquivelant said:

Another “the sky is falling “. thread.

None of the previous ones came true.

Why should we believe this one.

We still have 3 months before complete economic collapse that was predicted for the Trump 2 year mark by our resident financial guru and hedge fund manager @Wingate .

Still have that red Vespa, shorty? You know, real women like The Beast, which is 6 6 6, or now 6 7 6. That means 6 feet, 7 $ figure income, and---well---manhood worthy of its name. Sorry!

I hope that Navy pension is not your sole source of retirement income, because govt pensions are at risk, at least in current dollars.

In the US currently, the bottom 80% are not faring so well, as inflation is really biting. It's already kind of a depression for them. Of course the tariffs didn't help, nor did Trump's war of choice, which has oil prices 45% higher than on 27 February. His trade war with Canada is also not going to help, as a few hundred thousand US jobs are tied to Canada, as is oil, electricity, aluminum, and wood and paper products. Maybe Trump will be selling Bum Guns out of his White House Grift Shop, as toilet paper is going to get very dear.

Your messiah is on pace to add $10,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt during Term 2, if he survives (Polymarket and Kalshi say "No"). Combine that with the $8,400,000,000,000 he loaded on in Trump 1.0, and the serial bankrupt-er will have presided over 40% of the total US Debt built up by the other 45 Presidents.

Those issues, however, are small things. As AI tools are absorbed, UE is going to shoot up. Already the labor force is smaller than in 2000, despite US population jumping by 80 million or so. The Participation Rate keeps dropping, That's not good, as the $40 trillion National Debt has little room to grow, especially since Trump has alienated many of the foreigners who have been funding 25% of it. If the 5-6 folks working to make AI not just useful tools, but instead foist ASI on the other 8.5 billion humans, the US Depression will be like a mosquito bite, relative to what swarming AI agents will do. That's another story, but folks would be wise to listen to experts like Yoshua Bengio, Ilya Sutskever, Connor Leahy, Roman Yampolskiy, Sir Geoffrey Hinton, Max Tegmark, etc.

Even absent ASI, the demographics are not looking good. Population growth is slowing, though admittedly not as bad as South Korea. Boomers are strapped in retirement as Trump's inflation continues to rise, so they listen to Tom Selleck and get a reverse mortgage. Imagine how many houses will be on the books of banks as Boomers die off. And how about the value of the mortgages banks hold? As UE rises, so will the ring of "keys in the envelop" sent to banks. All those private equity firms who have spent since 2008 scoffing up tracts of residences, and who borrowed heavily, are going to be hit will falling prices (see Japan, to get some idea of what happens to home prices as demand fades with population decline....some home prices away from major cities have fallen 95% since 1989).

And how many winners is AI and data centers going to produce? The equity market is 45% the AI buildout, with firms running up enormous debt and engaging in a daisy chain of cross fertilization. Not every AI model is going to be a winner, so when the winner is chosen (it could even be an open weight Chinese model, "valued" at <10% of what Anthropic and OpenAI are valued at), there's going to be a lot of Pets.com and MySpace.

If you had any actual knowledge of economics, you'd be as wealthy as me. Yes, I get things wrong, but on balance I've done rather well, il hamdu l'illah. Economic ignorance is a fly in search of a windshield.

Yes. Let's waste our time talking about something we have Zero ability to change. If you are Rich, Influential, or a Celebrity maybe the elected leaders may listen a little.

Better spending your time figuring out how to live your life the best you can.

Isn't that why we live in Thailand?

In a word...

If one is outside the USA and one's only sources of information are the mainstream media platforms, it would be easy to conclude another Great Depression is on the horizon for the USA, and maybe it is. The financial problems are obvious and hard to ignore. The rising national debt, continued deficit spending, asset bubbles, a potential credit market collapse, entitlement spending and the effects of a broken healthcare system, and a shifting geopolitical landscape. On the other hand, this is no longer 1929. I do find it interesting, though, to compare current America to France as it was during the period just prior to the French Revolution. Lots of similarities, although with important differences.

My personal belief is that no matter what party is supposedly in charge in the US, the only real tool they have to prevent a systemic collapse is more money printing. Certain financial institutions really are "too big to fail." And what will result will be a slow but certain devaluation of the US Dollar. It's currently the world reserve currency and that isn't going to change anytime soon, as there is no feasible replacement on the horizon.

No, but Canada will be very soon.

Again.

Another British who hates America?

3 hours ago, fredwiggy said:

Most Americans are not depressed, the country isn't bad because of Trump, everyone I talk to daily there is doing well, with the only negatives the rise in some prices, which happens all the time everywhere. Move back, like you said you would, and you'll see it's the same old country that was there all along. Some of us have family and friends there and visit yearly so know what's going on.

People need to unplug from MSM, and bias blogs, vloaggers.

47 minutes ago, J Branche said:

Yes. Let's waste our time talking about something we have Zero ability to change. If you are Rich, Influential, or a Celebrity maybe the elected leaders may listen a little.

Better spending your time figuring out how to live your life the best you can.

Isn't that why we live in Thailand?

Nothing we do would affect any aspect of national govt. Just local elections. Those the make an effort are doing just fine. Those that don't ... oh well, they seem to be waiting for more hand outs.

50 minutes ago, J Branche said:

Yes. Let's waste our time talking about something we have Zero ability to change. If you are Rich, Influential, or a Celebrity maybe the elected leaders may listen a little.

Better spending your time figuring out how to live your life the best you can.

Isn't that why we live in Thailand?

That's exactly why the issue needs to be discussed. Not because we can change it, but because we need to understand it and we need to understand what may happen next and plan our finances accordingly.

Edited 10 hours ago10 hr by jas007

Two factors that must be considered here, number one what goes up must come down, and number two the economy is cyclical it always has been and it always will be.

When you add to that the fact that the stock market is over inflated to a stunning degree, price to earning ratios are way out of whack, and the debt load is currently unsustainable, you have a potential recipe for disaster.

During times of prosperity (or shall I say inflated stock markets) people tend to get somewhat dizzy and they forget about history. Whether or not there will be a full-scale depression nobody really knows but there is going to be a monster correction. And it's not going to happen too far down the road.

I would not be surprised if the Dow dropped to between 5, 000 and 10,000 points, and I would not be surprised if real estate prices dropped by more than half in the western world.

This is not a doomsday scenario this is just a cold hard look at facts and reality. Dream all you want about the economy going ever upward and never correcting, but that's never happened in the history of mankind.

18 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I would not be surprised if the Dow dropped to between 5, 000 and 10,000 points, and I would not be surprised if real estate prices dropped by more than half in the western world.

This is not a doomsday scenario this is just a cold hard look at facts and reality. Dream all you want about the economy going ever upward and never correcting, but that's never happened in the history of mankind.

This would actually be a good thing to see. A healthy correction. A great buying opportunity for certain stocks and a good opportunity for younger people who have been priced out of the housing market.

Can the OP please post their degrees in economics? It's like this riclag guy and all his nonsense which originates from no actual education. Just Breitbart right wing nonsense.

Your brain is not trained to the conclusions you present. Stop already.

1 hour ago, Wingate said:

Still have that red Vespa, shorty? You know, real women like The Beast, which is 6 6 6, or now 6 7 6. That means 6 feet, 7 $ figure income, and---well---manhood worthy of its name. Sorry!

I hope that Navy pension is not your sole source of retirement income, because govt pensions are at risk, at least in current dollars.

In the US currently, the bottom 80% are not faring so well, as inflation is really biting. It's already kind of a depression for them. Of course the tariffs didn't help, nor did Trump's war of choice, which has oil prices 45% higher than on 27 February. His trade war with Canada is also not going to help, as a few hundred thousand US jobs are tied to Canada, as is oil, electricity, aluminum, and wood and paper products. Maybe Trump will be selling Bum Guns out of his White House Grift Shop, as toilet paper is going to get very dear.

Your messiah is on pace to add $10,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt during Term 2, if he survives (Polymarket and Kalshi say "No"). Combine that with the $8,400,000,000,000 he loaded on in Trump 1.0, and the serial bankrupt-er will have presided over 40% of the total US Debt built up by the other 45 Presidents.

Those issues, however, are small things. As AI tools are absorbed, UE is going to shoot up. Already the labor force is smaller than in 2000, despite US population jumping by 80 million or so. The Participation Rate keeps dropping, That's not good, as the $40 trillion National Debt has little room to grow, especially since Trump has alienated many of the foreigners who have been funding 25% of it. If the 5-6 folks working to make AI not just useful tools, but instead foist ASI on the other 8.5 billion humans, the US Depression will be like a mosquito bite, relative to what swarming AI agents will do. That's another story, but folks would be wise to listen to experts like Yoshua Bengio, Ilya Sutskever, Connor Leahy, Roman Yampolskiy, Sir Geoffrey Hinton, Max Tegmark, etc.

Even absent ASI, the demographics are not looking good. Population growth is slowing, though admittedly not as bad as South Korea. Boomers are strapped in retirement as Trump's inflation continues to rise, so they listen to Tom Selleck and get a reverse mortgage. Imagine how many houses will be on the books of banks as Boomers die off. And how about the value of the mortgages banks hold? As UE rises, so will the ring of "keys in the envelop" sent to banks. All those private equity firms who have spent since 2008 scoffing up tracts of residences, and who borrowed heavily, are going to be hit will falling prices (see Japan, to get some idea of what happens to home prices as demand fades with population decline....some home prices away from major cities have fallen 95% since 1989).

And how many winners is AI and data centers going to produce? The equity market is 45% the AI buildout, with firms running up enormous debt and engaging in a daisy chain of cross fertilization. Not every AI model is going to be a winner, so when the winner is chosen (it could even be an open weight Chinese model, "valued" at <10% of what Anthropic and OpenAI are valued at), there's going to be a lot of Pets.com and MySpace.

If you had any actual knowledge of economics, you'd be as wealthy as me. Yes, I get things wrong, but on balance I've done rather well, il hamdu l'illah. Economic ignorance is a fly in search of a windshield.

1. Well well, I’m surprised you replied. Your normal SOP is to post and hide. Avoiding any challenge to your “claims”. Not impressive for a Langley boy.

2. I’ll respond to part of your reply as the other 90% is your typical jibberish recycled over and over that’s never been proven correct.

3. In all fairness I’m a little early as your doomsday predictions become official in January. I’m confident nothing drastic will happen until then

4. I knew I struck a nerve by you replying when you normally don’t. My Vespa is doing fine in storage while I summer in San Diego/Coronado in my paid for California condo. Just attended my Navy west coast reunion. Not rented out. I can return anytime. Unplug the fridge, lock the door and head to SAN and board business class. Perfect for my lifestyle.

5. You are correct. I’m under 6’ . Still maintain my 32 inch waist. Have you surpassed 36 yet?

6. I have 7 figures in an IRA through consistently maxing out tax fax deferred accounts over the years through dollar cost averaging and not changing jobs every 3 years for pension vesting.

7. Well above 6 inches and equally as important, girth . The ladies prefer that.

8. No, my Navy pension is not my sole income. Total of 5 income streams.

   Too bad you don’t. Your record of changing jobs whenever the going got tuff prevented vesting.

9. Have you informed your friend Admiral McRaven his Navy pension will be worthless soon based on your “claims”?I’m sure he would feel honored to receive sound advice from you. After all , you know it all.

10. The rest of your posts is your typical Trump hating gibberish . Doesn’t warrant a reply.

11. In closing you’re probably not a bad guy for a GEN X . Just misguided with no direction and being brainwashed by the left and Jimmy Kimmel.

12. I’ll remind you again in January. You know you can count on me.

Edited 8 hours ago8 hr by HolmesEquivelant

5 hours ago, fredwiggy said:

It might be better to sticking with things you know about, as you haven't been to the US in decades and, like some others here, are only going by videos and some likely biased newscasts.

Most Americans are not depressed, the country isn't bad because of Trump, everyone I talk to daily there is doing well, with the only negatives the rise in some prices, which happens all the time everywhere.

Move back, like you said you would, and you'll see it's the same old country that was there all along. Some of us have family and friends there and visit yearly so know what's going on.

Doom and gloom videos by people who are likely depressed has some thinking things are worse than they are. Like a tourist visiting and thinking they know the country by eating in a few restaurants and seeing a few sites, you need to move back and live there to know.

I spend a lot of time traveling back and forth to America and when you say everybody that you're talking to alot of people there, that are doing well you must be mixing with a pretty elite group, might I suggest the top 5%? It offers a very skewed view of reality.

A lot of people that I talk to are struggling and the place is becoming unaffordable for most. I have friends that are commercial real estate agents and the number of commercial vacancies right now is perhaps higher than it's ever been. Retail is really suffering, as there is a true crisis of confidence going on right now.

Unless you own a home free and clear these days you're pretty well screwed in America.

42 minutes ago, Priorexpat said:

Can the OP please post their degrees in economics? It's like this riclag guy and all his nonsense which originates from no actual education. Just Breitbart right wing nonsense.

Your brain is not trained to the conclusions you present. Stop already.

I'm not sure what degrees the OP has, but what he has posted is hardly "Breitbart right wing nonsense." Just obvious observations that anyone who has been paying attention could have made. None of it is rocket science. Demographic shifts, health care costs, entitlements, inflation, the national debt. The numbers are readily available to anyone who bothers to look. Of course, there are geopolitical concerns that one should also consider, but you can't really argue with the problems presented.

So, let me guess, YOU have a degree in economics? My guess is no, absolutely not. If you did you would surely realize that not only is another "Great Depression" possible, but could actually be in the cards sometime soon. Nobody wants to see that, but don't pretend it isn't possible.

33 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Most Americans are not depressed, the country isn't bad because of Trump, everyone I talk to daily there is doing well, with the only negatives the rise in some prices, which happens all the time everywhere.

Most Americans are not depressed

True but depression is at record highs, 18.3% of U.S. adults said they currently had or were being treated for depression — about 47.8 million people. That's roughly 8 percentage points higher than 2015.

Technically correct, but fails to correctly see the trend line.

the country isn't bad because of Trump

Of course not, the American Association for the Blind blames Biden for all of Trump's failures, not Trump.

They would have to admit they were wrong, which is impossible in their tiny minds.

everyone I talk to daily there is doing well

Whatever you say, Bubble Boy--that's just a biased sample space fallacy...a broad conclusion about an entire population based on a sample that is skewed.

with the only negatives the rise in some prices, which happens all the time everywhere.

False.

Biden gas in 2025 < Trump gas 2026

Biden grocery store prices 2025 < Trump grocery store prices 2026

Biden electricity prices 2025 < Trump electricity prices 2026

You are bad at math. That's why you're a Conservative. 😘

59 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I spend a lot of time traveling back and forth to America and when you say everybody that you're talking to alot of people there, that are doing well you must be mixing with a pretty elite group, might I suggest the top 5%? It offers a very skewed view of reality.

A lot of people that I talk to are struggling and the place is becoming unaffordable for most. I have friends that are commercial real estate agents and the number of commercial vacancies right now is perhaps higher than it's ever been. Retail is really suffering, as there is a true crisis of confidence going on right now.

Unless you own a home free and clear these days you're pretty well screwed in America.

Actually all of my friends besides one are doing okay, while the one is a little above that, as well as all they talk to, as I ask them how things are going all the time. Almost half in New Jersey and the other almost half in Texas, the rest in New York, Florida, Oregon, Michigan, California, Colorado, and a few others scattered around. Most everyone in America has been struggling for this whole century.

Wages have risen as well as the prices, and it is hard to stay above, but as always, they do.

My one friend has been building houses for 40 years and knows the market as well as anyone, and he sells them as fast as he builds them, in New Jersey, which is one of the most expensive states.People have been flocking to Texas for 2 decades by the thousands because real estate there is lower than most places. People all still are going out to east by the millions so they're still okay in America.

11 hours ago, GammaGlobulin said:

This is scary stuff.

Is that "Dr. Jiang"?

One of the biggest charlatans on Youtube.

He doesn't even have a Phd.

It should be illegal to put a "Dr." attached to your name without a medical degree or a Phd.