The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[highdiver]

its been an early morning for our dooms day brigade....

never mind reality in the true world of business is different to those who are negetive.....

FED FUND RATE

Foreign capital flows after Fed rate cut

Foreign capital continues to flow into the Kingdom for portfolio and direct investment following the United States Federal Reserve rate cut. However, the baht remains relatively stable, according to the Bank of Thailand.

Its deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee said yesterday foreign funds continued to flow in, particularly to the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

The Fed last week aggressively cut its fund rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4.75 per cent. This narrowed the gap between US rates and the Thailand central bank's policy rate of 3.25 per cent.

Inflows are illustrated in net foreign buying on the local exchange. Since the Fed cut, foreigners have been net buyers of Bt4.52 billion worth of shares.

As well as portfolio investment, :D there has been an influx of foreign direct investment . This is attributed to sound economic fundamentals, reflecting insignificant changes in national competitiveness, central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

"Direct investment inflows continue because the fundamental analysis from the outside still looks good," she said.

This has eased worries over competitiveness. However, some sectors of the economy have lost out to rivals in other countries, she said.

In addition, the bank noted the baht had not appreciated as much as some neighbours' currencies, in spite of capital inflow.

-The Nation

Anoma Srisukkasem

[highdiver]

LOFT to expand more branches by next year

Japanese-speciality store LOFT plans to invest up to Bt500 million to open its two new branches in Bangkok next year after celebrating its 10ht anniversary of its first branch at Siam Discovery this year.

wow they did not hear abou the crisis.

[highdiver]

PA subsidiary sells Samui Hotel 2

Pacific Assets said its wholly-owned subsidiary, Samui Holding Co Ltd, sells 46.66 million shares of Samui Hotel 2 Co Ltd or 66.66 per cent to Lehman Brothers Investments Pte Ltd at the price of 206.47 million.

so Lehman Brothers are not reading this forum and have not followed bingo's advice regarding investment in thailand....

[highdiver]

Auto manufacturing continues rising

A number of 109,486 vehicles were manufactured in August, up 3.91 per cent from the same period last year, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.

Of total, 59,111 units were manufactured for exports while the remaining 50,075 units for domestic market.

In the first eight months of this year, the accummulated number of manufactured vehicles reached 816,235 units, up 2.47 per cent year on year.

there is definatly a crisis....

[highdiver]

Exports are firmly back on track

Overseas sales grow 17.9% after July slowdown; imports up 14%

i know it was posted a few days ago but it still nice to trmind the doom gloom brigade what its like in the real world.

[Mid]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

Thailand: Political instability continues to dampen vehicle sales

By Automotive World staff writer (MVR)

21 September, 2007

Vehicle sales in Thailand fell 9.4% year-on-year in the 1 January-31 August period, local newspaper Bangkok Post reports, citing data provided by Toyota Thailand, which compiles statistics for the industry.

snip

Source: Automotive World

knives to a gun fight ............................

bump .....................

[bingobongo]

looks like the junta ran out of lollipops.........oh well, the boys in green are in control so i guess all is well......but who cares as long as there is som tham

the ministry spin cycle is working overtime it appears....

Japanese investors worried

Japanese investors and traders are worried about several issues related to their continued business in Thailand and are particularly concerned that amendments to the Foreign Business Act (FBA) may hamper their investment or reinvestment in the Kingdom.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/28...ss_30050520.php

[chinthee]

Auto manufacturing continues rising

A number of 109,486 vehicles were manufactured in August, up 3.91 per cent from the same period last year, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.

Of total, 59,111 units were manufactured for exports while the remaining 50,075 units for domestic market.

In the first eight months of this year, the accummulated number of manufactured vehicles reached 816,235 units, up 2.47 per cent year on year.

there is definatly a crisis....

There isn't a crisis per se, but there is indeed a crisis of confidence, to wit: IKEA. Entrenched industries won't be an accurate gauge for this, but rather, new inward investor confidence.

Combined with this is the recent destabilizing of Burma; the southern conflict and other factors, including the attractiveness of India, Vietnam and China.

Thailand is in a precarious position regardless of how rosy we wish to paint the picture. It needs to get its house in order, get the elections underway, no matter how fixed, and get the FBA sorted.

[highdiver]

oh the crisis continues....

BOT: August exports up 18.4%

Bank of Thailand on Friday revealed that Thailand's exports expanded 18.4 per cent year on year at the value of US$13.82 billion.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s senior director Amara Sriphayak said that the high export growth rate bouyed the economy in the month, when domestic demand also picked up.

"This attributed to the clearer political situation, after the referendum of the Constitution, as well as the higher spending from the public sector and relaxes monetary policies," Amara said.

The central bank noted that private investment would gradually pick up as expected.

- The Nation

[highdiver]

Export growth, demand improve Published on September 29, 2007

Thailand's economic picture looked much rosier last month, with not only a big jump in exports, but also a growing revival in domestic demand.

Business confidence also brightened, as the Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for the three months ahead shot past the 50-point mark for the first time in six months, to 50.2.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/29...ss_30050667.php

there is a crisis....!!!!

[cclub75]

oh the crisis continues....

BOT: August exports up 18.4%

You might want to cool off your enthousiasm a bit... And look at the figures in... THB.

Bingo, the +18.4 % changes itself in a +7.5 %...

But mai pen rai, you could say.

Again, look at the details. Here for instance, with the indices of prices and volumes.

And you would see that :

-agriculture :

In THB, the prices have decreased of 10 % between august 2006 and august 2007.

Meanwhile, the volume has increased… of 8 % !

-manufactured goods (the bulk of thai exports)

It’s even worse. Prices in THB went down 8 %… meanwhile volumes went up 14,5 % !

So, I know what you are going to say :

-huge productivity gains... We can (seriously) doubt it.

-the problem is neutralized by the fact that thai exporters are also importing (in USD). True... but not for all of them.

So what to think of this situation ? Margins are crushed.

Some thai exporters are simply selling more for less. Is it sustainable ?

We will see probably on Q4 the financial toll of this crazy race....

Last point : in 10 to 15 days we will have the first glimpse on september's figures.

We should bet : we will see a correction of august's anomaly.

Edited October 1, 2007 by cclub75

[Jai Dee]

Thai economist warns of fragile fiscal position

Thailand’s fiscal position has begun to become fragile since the tax collection and state revenue have declined continuously while social costs have risen, according to the Bank of Thailand.

Songtham Pinto, economist of the BoT’s Monetary Policy Group, said Thailand’s fiscal burdens had increased since the economic crisis in 1997.

The government needed to bear debt burdens incurred by the Financial Institutions Development Fund in an amount of around 10 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

It resulted in public debts soaring from 13-14 per cent of GDP before the crisis to 57 per cent in the post-crisis period.

He said the increased fiscal burdens had made the country’s fiscal position become more fragile. However, the fiscal policy implementation for the economic recovery had gained momentum.

This, coupled with the government’s clear policy implementation plan, had gradually improved the country’s fiscal position.

The central bank economist pointed out that the government's expenditure in the past accounted for 18.2 per cent of GDP compared to 36.6 per cent and 26.3 per cent of the industrialised countries and developing countries in Asia.

He conceded the changing economic, financial and fiscal development might fuel risks and burdens to the fiscal position.

A study found the government’s fiscal structure risks had increased as the tax collection is expected to decline due to the implementation of the free trade area agreements.

Regarding ways to manage the fiscal risk, he said, the tax collection system needed to be improved to ensure efficiency of the taxation.

Source: TNA - 05 October 2007

[Mid]

TRADE / EXPORTS

Slow growth likely for Q4

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Wednesday October 10, 2007

Thailand's exports in the fourth quarter are expected to show the slowest growth in 22 quarters due to lower purchase orders in key markets and a strong baht, the Thai Chamber of Commerce believes.

snip

bangkokpost.net

oops , guess they didn't get the memo about the elections spurring unbridled spending ...........................

[soundman]

TRADE / EXPORTS

Slow growth likely for Q4

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Wednesday October 10, 2007

Thailand's exports in the fourth quarter are expected to show the slowest growth in 22 quarters due to lower purchase orders in key markets and a strong baht, the Thai Chamber of Commerce believes.

snip

bangkokpost.net

oops , guess they didn't get the memo about the elections spurring unbridled spending ...........................

Maybe not!

However, they didn't take into account the six month lag time between the currency gaining strength and exhisting 6 - 12 month sales contracts not getting renewed....

[cclub75]

The Mother Of All Threads shall continue.

“Weak domestic demand has resulted in a 7.6 per cent annualised drop in auto sales during the first nine months of this year, with the total sale of only 451,326 units, according to the data compiled by Tri Petch Isuzu Sales Co Ltd.

According to Tri Petch, amid economic and political uncertainties, consumers in September still delayed their purchases despite special campaigns from all auto companies. In the month, the number of sold vehicles also dropped 1.24 per cent from the previous month. Only 53,491 units were sold in September.” (Nation)

[Mid]

despite special campaigns

very special they were too ,

plenty of massaged figures around to try and discredit this 7.6 per cent annualised drop in auto sales during the first nine months of this year

should not the Sept figures turn up this week ?

Edited October 14, 2007 by Mid

[AGareth2]

Is this a TV longest thread record?

[cclub75]

plenty of massaged figures around to try and discredit this 7.6 per cent annualised drop in auto sales during the first nine months of this year

should not the Sept figures turn up this week ?

We will have the september figures of the BOT (private consumption indicators, with the figures of passenger cars and moto sold per month) on october the 31.

[bingobongo]

hey how about that......

Businesspeople still uncertain about economic recovery: Survey

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=32255

[usatrader]

Just when the sky is falling, there comes the clarity of context, perhaps?

Click below;

Personal (Socialism TAX) burdens of the West;

http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/tax_chart.jpg

[Prakanong]

Just when the sky is falling, there comes the clarity of context, perhaps?

Click below;

Personal (Socialism TAX) burdens of the West;

http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/tax_chart.jpg

Do you mean direct taxation or both direct and indirect?

Socialism - you do not know the meaning of the word - learn it on Fox News did you?

[cclub75]

Personal (Socialism TAX) burdens of the West;[/b]

Eventhough I agree (yes Europe is freaking socialist, or more precisely "collectivist"), what's... the point ? I mean with Thailand ?

[bingobongo]

Just when the sky is falling, there comes the clarity of context, perhaps?

Click below;

Personal (Socialism TAX) burdens of the West;

http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/tax_chart.jpg

not sure your point given this is a forum about thailand, but regardless, i prefer the "socialist" west to the police state junta third world

[bingobongo]

how about that...............

Fixed income families to be affected by price rises

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=32291

[Mid]

^

hang on , aren't we in the 4th quarter ?

this is when the recovery is supposed to start ain't it ?

the small print is that $100 / barrel oil that's coming any day now ,

[cclub75]

this is when the recovery is supposed to start ain't it ?

the small print is that $100 / barrel oil that's coming any day now ,

No problem. The BOT is not afraid at all. "The BOT predicts the Dubai oil price will fall to about $71 or $72 next year, thanks to new supply and decreasing demand. This would allow the economy to expand in the range of 4.5-6 percent, except in the worst-case scenario, in which the oil price would skyrocket to $82.30 a barrel." (Nation)

And this is why, they maintain that CPI won't increase : "She said core and headline inflation would also remain in the forecast range."

Their only hope, and actually their mindset : surge of oil price... will not last...

As for "new supply"... Opec is obviously unable to increase its production.

And "decreasing demand"... Again a wish. For the moment, that is not linked to any fact.

[Mid]

^

yep , relax , we can all relax .............................

from that article

Moreover, oil-price adjustments will occur automatically. The rising price of oil will dampen the world's economy, resulting in the oil price eventually declining, she said.

and that darn pig is flying past the window again .

[midas]

^

yep , relax , we can all relax .............................

from that article

Moreover, oil-price adjustments will occur automatically. The rising price of oil will dampen the world's economy, resulting in the oil price eventually declining, she said.

and that darn pig is flying past the window again .

no you don't understand - its just that they have an unonorthodox approach to economics here

it's probably taken from the same textbook which advocates raising the prices when things don't sell !

[thaiman]

do you want to know why people are scared to come to thailand now? I'll be very blunt, and to the point. no bullshit.

4) the rising baht, (what the <deleted>#k, from 42 to 34 like within a year. that's 20%+. not such a deal now right??!?)

This is the only reason not to visit right now. No bang for your buck!

[bingobongo]

Edited October 20, 2007 by bingobongo