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The Thai Economy Is In Crisis


george

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OK I will read that when I get time

Even if it is a production line they still need highly skilled people on the lines - it is raising the human capital and I bet Vietnamese go to the USA for training and i bet USA based Viets transfer over thus raising the bar again.

Look at the other countries where chip fabrication goes on and the industries that build up around them to supply them.

It is these type of jobs Thailand needs - not importing parts, putting them together and exporting again like hard drives or whatever - the level is all wrong.

sorry for the snip ,but its getting to long.

Intel will not be flying people to the states. it will be importing forigners for the management positions. they will however be asisting loal s to get better and higer education.

As for your second point this is exactly the change that is taking place now in thailand. auto factories including R&D are hevily invested. and electronic assembly lines are being moved from korea and taiwn to thailand not only in assembling but producing the parts as well.

Thailand is the world’s largest hard disk drive producer, with four out of five of the world’s leading HDD manufacturers having established production bases in Thailand (specifically Seagate, Hitachi Global Storage Technology, Western Digital and Fujitsu).

Seagate cites the availability of skilled Thai workers as a top reason for locating in Thailand.

Currently, Thailand is home to more than 600 local software companies, employing 40,000 professionals, and Microsoft recently donated $2.8m partly to train more Thai software developers.

IBM thailand serves as a regional hub for the companies many projects in Asia.

if its realy intrest you then here is an article by a singaporean institute about ICT in thailand.

http://www.eusea2006.org/Website/programme...7-14.9623885989.

thailand is building a presence in IT and in bio reserch..

Edited by highdiver
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here's a bit more from 'divers current favourite conference ...........................

ECONOMY / SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

Experts warn of declining efficiency and cost-effectiveness

Friday September 14, 2007

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

Thailand has fallen behind in efficiency and cost-effectiveness, experts said at the Thailand Focus investors' seminar yesterday. Thai businesses' procurement is far less efficient than the international standard, said Phanit Laosirirat, executive director for Thailand Productivity Institute.

He said the country's competitiveness based on the IMD rankings had been falling steadily due to a lack of skilled labour, and poor management.

On the corporate level, local firms use more personnel in procurement than foreign companies. On average, 20 employees are used to procure one billion baht, compared to 4.31 internationally.

Local firms also spend more time on procurement and spend more on preparing the company's budget versus other countries in the region.

''The figures reflect that we don't have good contracted suppliers. And we don't have good business-to-business relationships,'' Dr Phanit said.

He said efficiency in procurement was lowest in the furniture business, followed by textiles, rubber and processed food.

He urged the next government to implement a master plan for productivity improvement for the industrial sector, which was introduced by the interim government two months ago.

snip

bangkokpost.com

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here's a bit more from 'divers current favourite conference ...........................

ECONOMY / SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

Experts warn of declining efficiency and cost-effectiveness

Friday September 14, 2007

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

Thailand has fallen behind in efficiency and cost-effectiveness, experts said at the Thailand Focus investors' seminar yesterday. Thai businesses' procurement is far less efficient than the international standard, said Phanit Laosirirat, executive director for Thailand Productivity Institute.

He said the country's competitiveness based on the IMD rankings had been falling steadily due to a lack of skilled labour, and poor management.

On the corporate level, local firms use more personnel in procurement than foreign companies. On average, 20 employees are used to procure one billion baht, compared to 4.31 internationally.

Local firms also spend more time on procurement and spend more on preparing the company's budget versus other countries in the region.

''The figures reflect that we don't have good contracted suppliers. And we don't have good business-to-business relationships,'' Dr Phanit said.

He said efficiency in procurement was lowest in the furniture business, followed by textiles, rubber and processed food.

He urged the next government to implement a master plan for productivity improvement for the industrial sector, which was introduced by the interim government two months ago.

snip

bangkokpost.com

1. it was not in the conference...

2. it was debated already a few hours ago....

but dont let us stand in your way..

please continue.....control c and control v

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here's a bit more from 'divers current favourite conference ...........................

ECONOMY / SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

Experts warn of declining efficiency and cost-effectiveness

Friday September 14, 2007

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

Thailand has fallen behind in efficiency and cost-effectiveness, experts said at the Thailand Focus investors' seminar yesterday. Thai businesses' procurement is far less efficient than the international standard, said Phanit Laosirirat, executive director for Thailand Productivity Institute.

He said the country's competitiveness based on the IMD rankings had been falling steadily due to a lack of skilled labour, and poor management.

On the corporate level, local firms use more personnel in procurement than foreign companies. On average, 20 employees are used to procure one billion baht, compared to 4.31 internationally.

Local firms also spend more time on procurement and spend more on preparing the company's budget versus other countries in the region.

''The figures reflect that we don't have good contracted suppliers. And we don't have good business-to-business relationships,'' Dr Phanit said.

He said efficiency in procurement was lowest in the furniture business, followed by textiles, rubber and processed food.

He urged the next government to implement a master plan for productivity improvement for the industrial sector, which was introduced by the interim government two months ago.

snip

bangkokpost.com

1. it was not in the conference...

2. it was debated already a few hours ago....

but dont let us stand in your way..

please continue.....control c and control v

Highdiver, to be fair, the bold sentence above was already mentioned in your link-report which was from 2006 and said on page #4:

"Thailand is not doing well in the IMD Competitiveness Factors Ranking 2000-2005...."

and thus, now repeated yesterday in 2007.

Although your report show some promising figures there are also disappointing facts especially in the 'communication' sector, like fixed landlines (phone) which is just 11.7/100 inhabitants (and that's extremely low) versus 50/100 for mobile phones.

Phones and Internet means 'COMMUNICATION' and learning, hearing, talking, spreading the word; I could go on...

Very disappointing is that just a mere 11.1% of the Thai population use Internet.

IMHO Internet is: learning, studying, improvement of knowledge and a gateway to International News at the same time.

But...the government is more focused on closing websites instead of letting people decide for themselves, read: censorship, as if the Thai couldn't decide for themselves what's good or not for them.... :D

Thailand has still a long way to go but in the meantime it's losing ground under it's feet to the competitiveness of neighbouring countries, no matter if they're the largest hard drive disk producers/exporters in the world, which factories were set up by foreign companies quite some time ago already...

It's not about how far Thailand already is, but WHAT is Thailand doing NOW to improve the economy and lifestyle for their citizens, of which 60% still work in Agriculture.

That majority is still under educated and I wonder WHAT the government did, or is planning to do to, educate them, starting with English, and, if they want to do more, even Mandarin...on a National scale!?

Edit:

I would like to add that if Thailand needs 20 people to procure 1 Million Baht, versus 4,31 people internationally, there's something very seriously wrong...!

It means that management & efficiency are poor, very poor and IF the so called Elite, including their owners of the factories which are closing down now, or closed already, would have been a little more intelligent and adaptive, it wouldn't have happened.

Instead they prefer to 'blame' the increased wages/salaries, higher Baht and competition, instead looking in a Thai Mirror.....! Yeah..right... :o

LaoPo

Edited by LaoPo
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I was living in Thai in 97 and this is completely different.the thai middle class disapeared thanks to george soros and the devaluation of the thai baht,1 usd=55baht the stock market went from around 1200 to 200 overnight and many people were wiped out.

"The foreign ministers of the 10 ASEAN countries believed that the well co-ordinated manipulation of currencies was a deliberate attempt to destabilize the ASEAN economies. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused currency speculator George Soros of ruining Malaysia's economy with massive currency speculation, an accusation which few economists take seriously (Soros appears to have had his bets in against the Asian currency devaluations, incurring a loss when the crisis hit)."

I think the 1997 financial crisis was a little more complicated than addressing it to one man...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis

&

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo1297/index.htm

&

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/50/index-a.html

LaoPo

It's like in the movie wall street when charlie sheen asks micheal douglas when he broke up teldar paper and he replies"because it was breakable".Soros need those factors to be present but once he acted he set in motion a caskade of actions :o

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Thailand's Surayud Says Thai Baht Stable, Economy Will Expand

By Rattaphol Onsanit and Shanthy Nambiar

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said the baht is stable and economic growth is on target for this year.

The Southeast Asian nation's economy will likely expand between ``4 percent and 4.5 percent,'' Surayud said, speaking during a weekly interview program on state-run Channel 11 television in Bangkok. ``Inflation is at the low end.''

Thailand has been relying on exports to spur an economy blighted by slumping consumer confidence after last year's military coup. A national election is scheduled by the end of this year and a democratic government should be restored by January, Surayud said last week.

The Bank of Thailand has cut its benchmark rate at five of six meeting this year to spur spending and investment. Consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in more than five years in August. Last week, Surayud said an ``expansionary fiscal policy,'' and government spending will support growth.

``The economic and investment direction looks positive,'' Surayud said. ``It looks like we are able to hand over the job to the next government.''

A new army chief is expected to be appointed to take over from junta leader Sondhi Boonyarataklin, who will retire from the military on Sept. 30. The military came into power after a coup ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

``The nomination is likely to be submitted to the king next week,'' for endorsement, Surayud said. ``The next army chief shouldn't get involved in politics if not necessary.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...orld_currencies

&

Asian Currencies Gain as Demand for Region's Assets May Rise

Elsewhere, the Thai baht was little changed this week at 34.25. Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Thailand's finance minister, said Sept. 12 the baht is ``quite stable.'' The government will boost economic expansion this year with public spending, Chalongphob said Sept. 7.

From:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...orld_currencies

LaoPo

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One year after coup, Thai economy mired in uncertainty

35 minutes ago

BANGKOK (AFP) — One year after Thailand's coup, the kingdom's economic growth ranks among the lowest in Southeast Asia as domestic demand and investment have slumped due to political uncertainty, analysts said.

The economy is expected to rise over four percent this year, far below average growth of 5.6 percent in the region led by Indonesia, Singapore and booming Vietnam, according to the Asian Development Bank.

snip

afp.google.com

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One year after coup, Thai economy mired in uncertainty

35 minutes ago

BANGKOK (AFP) — One year after Thailand's coup, the kingdom's economic growth ranks among the lowest in Southeast Asia as domestic demand and investment have slumped due to political uncertainty, analysts said.

The economy is expected to rise over four percent this year, far below average growth of 5.6 percent in the region led by Indonesia, Singapore and booming Vietnam, according to the Asian Development Bank.

snip

afp.google.com

Singapore is over 8% and Vietnam is over 10%

Looking at Thailand in isolation is meaningless - comparing to the region and competitors shows the true picture and its scary.

Golf and sex as their competitive advantage?

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Heng,

your family has interests in the pawn and loan business - what has been happening there ? general trends for pawning of items and loan defaults ?

Well, first of all we don't deal in "items" any more, only real estate deeds. The default rate has been even keel for some time now, certainly through these last two years. The last time we had a minor spike was a decade ago. Usually our loans don't drag out year upon year, most people (although there are certainly exceptions) pay off the interest and principle within a few days to a few weeks.

:o

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Well, first of all we don't deal in "items" any more, only real estate deeds. The default rate has been even keel for some time now, certainly through these last two years. The last time we had a minor spike was a decade ago. Usually our loans don't drag out year upon year, most people (although there are certainly exceptions) pay off the interest and principle within a few days to a few weeks.

:o

May I ask, Heng?

What rate of "dork bia" you charge on say a cash loan of 100K Baht with property worth five times that amount as collaterol?

Cheers,

Soundman.

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Well, first of all we don't deal in "items" any more, only real estate deeds. The default rate has been even keel for some time now, certainly through these last two years. The last time we had a minor spike was a decade ago. Usually our loans don't drag out year upon year, most people (although there are certainly exceptions) pay off the interest and principle within a few days to a few weeks.

:o

May I ask, Heng?

What rate of "dork bia" you charge on say a cash loan of 100K Baht with property worth five times that amount as collaterol?

Cheers,

Soundman.

No worries. 1.5% per month across the board, no matter what the value of the property. As a general rule, it has to be in the metro Bangkok or Chonburi areas. Collateral as in one has to agree to a sell by proxy contract in addition to the general loan contract.

:D

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And why didn't those peasants show up when overtime was on offer?

:o

and once again , Heng confirms he's ok with people starving .................................

If I wasn't concerned, I wouldn't be paying overtime. I'd just call it "an extra shift at the same rate."

:D

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thanks heng,

do you have friends that could tell you the trend at the moment for "items"

a friend said to me today

the financial hard ships are starting to happen in Udon,many shops closing people havnt got any work ect

is this happening in Bangkok also ?

From what I have gathered from friends and family over the years is that the default rate is not a good indicator of anything in particular because it can mean different things. You might get people not returning for their goods because they were stolen to begin with (in tourist towns, this "default" rate would sometimes -but not always- go up when tourist numbers were up or if the police were cracking down on something or other at a particular time... the latter happening without any particular corresponding economic condition) or because they didn't have the funds.

:o

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Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

Trouble lies ahead for exporters, mainly due to decreasing demand from the United States, Thailand's major export destination, said M.R. Pridiyathorn. He pinned hopes on public and private spending to prevent the Thai economy from further slipping.

snip

160907_news01.gif

bangkokpost.net

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PM pledges Bangkok subway

Today's Top Stories

Phetchabun - In an attempt to strengthen investor confidence, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont promised on Sunday his interim government would definitely begin new underground projects in the capital.

Regarding economic issues, Gen. Surayud said he had assured foreign investors that his government will continue the mega-projects, especially the subway system.

snip

bangkokpost.net

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Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

Trouble lies ahead for exporters, mainly due to decreasing demand from the United States, Thailand's major export destination, said M.R. Pridiyathorn. He pinned hopes on public and private spending to prevent the Thai economy from further slipping.

snip

160907_news01.gif

bangkokpost.net

Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

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I wouldn't be paying overtime. I'd just call it "an extra shift at the same rate."

nothing to do with the employement rules and regs ..............?

Nah, way too easy to bypass. This is out of the goodness of my cold, black, mechanical heart.

:o

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Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

snip

160907_news01.gif

bangkokpost.net

Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. :o But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis. :D

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

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Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

snip

160907_news01.gif

bangkokpost.net

Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. :D But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis. :D

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

:o:D:D

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Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. :o But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis. :D

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

Somehow we'll muddle through

A year after the military coup, has Thailand recovered economically with a more promising outlook?

Published on September 17, 2007

That is not definitely the case.

Consumer confidence remains lacklustre, hitting a new five-year low.

Investment continues to be weak.

Exports are slowing down.

Even worse, more than 300 labour-intensive companies have closed down because of the rising baht and structural problems.

The economy will grow at slightly over 4 per cent, much below the country's growth potential of 5-6 per cent.

snip

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation

one trusts Khun Thanong Khanthong ,

is not having problems with their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

once again Palm displays his ignorance and arrogance ................

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Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

snip

160907_news01.gif

bangkokpost.net

Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. :o But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis. :D

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

I would not be slagging anyone off about economics if I was you as it just makes you look thick as two short planks.

If you think a 4% GDP growth rate is healthy for a nation at the development stage of Thailand you are so wrong but whats new.

Vietnam over 10% and Singapore over 8% - thats GDP growth but then again you live in a 3rd world country and so you would not know any better.

BTW - how much is your monthly girlfriend payments?

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Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. :o But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis. :D

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

Somehow we'll muddle through

A year after the military coup, has Thailand recovered economically with a more promising outlook?

Published on September 17, 2007

That is not definitely the case.

Consumer confidence remains lacklustre, hitting a new five-year low.

Investment continues to be weak.

Exports are slowing down.

Even worse, more than 300 labour-intensive companies have closed down because of the rising baht and structural problems.

The economy will grow at slightly over 4 per cent, much below the country's growth potential of 5-6 per cent.

snip

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation

one trusts Khun Thanong Khanthong ,

is not having problems with their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

once again Palm displays his ignorance and arrogance ................

He seems to know a lot about monthly girlfriend payments hmmmmmm says a lot!

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ADB: Thai 2008 GDP forecast unchanged at 5%

Mon, September 17, 2007 : Last updated 16:03 hours

Asian Development Bank's country director, Thai Resident Mission, Jean-Pierre Verbiest said on Monday that while ADB has upgraded economic growth forecast for the region, it left Thailand's GDP growth prediction unchanged.

He said Thailand has missed its chance to boost confidence in economy over the past two years. Thus, the new government must implement economic policies that would boost consumer and investor confidence.

ADB forecast Thai GDP in 2007 and 2008 at 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, which is unchanged from earlier anticipation. However, it upgraded forecast for Southeast Asian region economic growth from 5.6 per cent to 6.1 per cent. - The Nation

Anoma Srisukkasem

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Big projects 'crucial' to Thai future

Pridiyathorn urges new govt to save economy

By Anucha Charoenpo

Sunday September 16, 2007

Former deputy prime minister Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday urged decisive action by the next government to push ahead with mega-projects that he says are crucial to rescue Thailand from a sluggish economy.

snip

160907_news01.gif

bangkokpost.net

Very misleading graph, why does the axis start at 4%.

I find it very strange that people see +4% GDP growth as terrible, especially seeing all that has happened in that time period.

Very strange indeed. :o But then if you factor in the pitiful understanding of economics of all the whingers, plus their desperate finances caused by the strength of the baht, it all makes perfect sense.

Low inflation

Strong balance of payments

Healthy GDP growth

Incredibly low unemployment

Mobile workforce

Booming exports

If this is a crisis, then the entire world is in an economic crisis. :D

If you look at macro economic fundamentals, and speak with significant companies in Thailand actually manufacturing and exporting, you get a very different picture of Thailand from the neer-do-well foreigner brigade who are unable to meet their monthly girlfriend payments because their $2000 pension is hammered by a strong Thai baht.

I would not be slagging anyone off about economics if I was you as it just makes you look thick as two short planks.

If you think a 4% GDP growth rate is healthy for a nation at the development stage of Thailand you are so wrong but whats new.

Vietnam over 10% and Singapore over 8% - thats GDP growth but then again you live in a 3rd world country and so you would not know any better.

BTW - how much is your monthly girlfriend payments?

so what do you consider a good GDP for thailand at this stage?

how can you compare Thailnd vietnam and Singapore whrn each one is in a different stage?

the GDP is avariable factor. it can easily be changed up by more govement spending. which are planed.

baring in mind that Thailand is sitting on a mountain of forign reserves it should not be a problem to do that.

then again a growth rate in GDP as you see in Vietnam was the same in thailand when it was in the same stage.

As for singapore. take the GDP equasion and remove the investment factor of 2 multi billion dollar casinos and the GDP will be different.

singapore however will soon relaise that a high growth in GDP originating from domestic input has a price of inflation only to b controlled by a higher tax as passed on July.

comparing economies of different stages is ait like apple and oranges.

how would you define the stage thailnd is at the moment and what do you feel is the right GDP rate for this stage?

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