The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[soundman]

thank you for bringing this back on treck.

i agree with you that most of those that come and go are the ones that are probably complaining once they lost out.

I live in samui but I dont realy work any more. I am invested through the BOI in agriculture mainly in rubber plantations using a modern planting and harvesting methods to increase yield. I am also invested through the BOI in several hight tech projects. on a personal level I have invested in a few businesses in samui mainly with local partners and business is booming.

by the way in your line of sound there is one company here called AVID (sound and video)that is doing so well its recruiting more an more people all the time.

I bellive that thailand is moving forward and that regardless of those posts originating from those who are not here there is a sense of development and investment. I frequently meet investors and they all are confident that there is a huge potential in thailand.

So you are predominantly an investor. Glad to see that your investments are working positively for you.

BOI consideration is not "exactly" easy to come by. Hi-tech - "thailand no have" - no problems until they work out how to do it themselves. Should sell that yield increasing technology to the Shan.

As far as doing AV production (concerts etc) on Samui - There is not one major hire company that will go to that Island without being paid up-front. The most common method of payment is 30% down, 20% after setup & "rumors have it" - your equipment back on the ferry in the morning or a bullet if you insist on payment of the balance. Very rare to get a "big" act to Samui. In comparisson, Surat & NST have large performances weekly.

Cheers.

[VegasVic]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

What's laughable is most of the negative foreigner posters on here couldn't even afford to buy a motorbike here in the first place without breaking out into a cold sweat.

Maybe we can start a 'Falang Charity Shop' for all of the bitter foreigners who despise the idea of Thais having MUCH more money than them; owning new cars and pickups, owning large houses and condos etc.

I've never been in a country where the foreigner population contains so many drop-outs, bums, neer-do-wells and losers.

two of the most ignorant and arrogant posters continue to display their combined ignorance .............

pick up sales domestically have also declined ,

and Palms knowledge of the gender of the Governor of the BOT is legendary ...........................

Mid, I am happy to see you are familiar with one of my favorite books of all time "Zen and the art of motorcycle maitainence" it's kind of an underground classic here in the states among us boomers! It is likely that Palm is just projecting his current substandard situation in life on the rest of us, I figured Palm out long ago and don't even waste time responding to him any longer. It's actually kind of sad, the poor chaps constant mantra about "all those poor farang bums who are just scaping by in Thailand" (when in fact many of the posters he assails actually live very comfortable lives in the states or elseware) and his unwillingness to recognize the downturn in the Thai economy brought on primarily by the strong baht. There does seem to be a growing consensous that if the FED cuts the funds rate by 50-75 basis points by years end, that it will actually help the dollar to appreciate (and in turn will help the baht to weaken), which will hopefully help to moderate the downturn in the Thai economy. Lets hope that consensous is correct for the sake of the Thai people, and of course all those "drop-out, bum, neer-do-well and loser farangs" (I couldn't resist) I hope that Palms' life, or at least his outlook on life improves, as it must be very depressing to be so bitter all of the time!

After Palm's insistance a while back that there was 'no evidence' of hedge funds causing an asset bubble I wonder if he is ready to admit he was 100% wrong, or would that be out of character for him?

The man changes with the wind - one time he is talking about multiples of condo's he is buying now its down to two - <deleted>?

Thailand does attract them - he will be ex-SAS next with a line to the biggest diamond in the world but its a secret.

Very odd people on TV. I've never said I was buying 'multiples of condos'. But if making things up makes you feel better, its amusing to read

I own 2 condos in Thailand, and purchased a third a few months ago at the Prime 11 in Suk 11. It will be finished in 18 months. Once all the payments are made in about 18 months time, I'll own 3 in Thailand.

What part didn't you understand?

I'm still waiting patiently for the huge downturn in prime condo prices. But since none of you whingers can actually afford to buy anything decent here anyway (Mid says he can't even scrape together 95,000 baht for PR!), I look forward to your great economic advice.

I'm not bitter at all in Thailand - I am having a GREAT time here in Thailand - funny reading how it upsets you all so much. Lots of cash, lots of free time, great restaurants, great travel around Asia, starting to play golf etc. Spending lots of time with great Thais; educated, considerate, honest, reliable, fun people. And a few foreigners who mostly run their own businesses (in Thailand and abroad).

Just because you get all upset when anyone points out your incomes are lower than checkout staff in supermarkets in the West, you have little immature tantrums like a bunch of schoolboys. It's easy to see why you are all so bitter about Thailand and the Thai people; your personal dreadful economic circumstances in Thailand show you for what you are; economic washouts.

Its great to see there is still life in the 'Bitter Falangs Personal Economies in Crisis' thread.

I just finished posting on the other forums I follow here on TV and was going to log off, but I couldn't resist coming here to the Palm-Highdiver pump fest! You guys don't by any chance cohabitate in that hut in Koh Samui do you? By the way I am not 60+ years old, I am 49 and have been fortunate to grow up in America and saved my $ and made some very good invesments in real estate and equities over the years and now I am retired at an early age and do enjoy playing golf nearly everyday! As for that he** hole in Arizona (Sedona) that I reside in, sometime you should ask a well traveled American or European about Sedona and you may be quite surpised as to just what a he** hole it is! My wife is Thai and her entire family still lives in Thailand and hence my interest in Thailand. I also believe that despite the current economic downturn in Thailand the long term prospects for Thailand are very good, and it may surprise you to know I do have a long term investment in Thailand in the form of a tree farm near Wang Nam Khiao (I think that is how it is spelled?) where my wifes family has 20 rai of land. In 8 years time the sale of these trees (about 1100) should provide economic prosperity for generations of my wifes family yet to come. Try and have a nice day

[A_Traveller]

A request to VegasVic, there is a mystical key often labelled Enter. This has the ability to break text into paragraphs.

The advantage of this key is it makes text more accessible and even provides for the possibility of sectioning information by subject.

Please consider using said key which might, make your contributions readable to we mere mortals.

Regards

Edited September 10, 2007 by A_Traveller

[xbusman]

totaly agree with you.

in this froum we have 3 types of posters

1.those who live in thailand and enjoy it. and see the prosperity and the opertuntiy as well as those investors that just cant stop pouring in.

2.those who live in thailand but see the economy developing but its bad for them thus they cant afford it any more..and they cant afford to buy a new condo or afford a permanant residency for 3000usd those possters are lovingly called the dooms day brigade that find every negetivre news to support the fact that they will not be abler to live here in the near future..

3. those that dont even live here but have some intrest and thus posting views from a far based on cut and paste posts

4. Those that live here & make their money in Thai Baht in SME type businesses & don't rely on outside income.

The state of the Thai economy being up or down is very important to our minority group. We are the ones who aren't afraid to back up our words with actions.

So don't stuff this thread up with all your squabling....

Soundman.

Thanks Soundman, I like to think that I fit in that category. I have an export company that represents manufacturers in Thailand, Taiwan and China. Five years ago, the happening place was Thailand and we had a great business. I have steadily watched my manufacturers close, my products move to China, and my business dismantled here piece by piece as the baht steadily rose. Despite desperately trying to hold on, it looks like my final products will finally leave Thailand in the next year and with them, alas, so will I. During this rapid degeneration over the past two years, I was looking for solutions and explanations on what was happening and what could be done to combat it, hence my interest in the economy for exactly the reasons you stated. Perhaps my personal doom and gloom is strictly export related and related only to the wide range of manufacturers I used to work with here. Wouldnt you be a little gloomy to be forced to move from Thailand to China?

I am looking for that ray on sunshine that will bring Thailand back into the export game, as yet I have not found it. When the Thai baht is stronger than the Taiwan dollar, something is seriously out of whack and the ramifications for an export economy that allows that to happen is very concerning. The culture here facilitates denial of problems, rendering obtuse unpleasant facts or information, its just the way things are done here good or bad. Having a tenuous hold in a foreign country and not being a native speaker, we need to keep our radar on high for all events, particularly those which might overwhelm us.

This discussion of the economy seems to take on a religious fervor with small regard for the reality. The reality, as best I can tell, is that Thailand has some very strong fundamentals but faces some challenges that might be difficult if not impossible to overcome. I think that a desperate struggle is already in motion, but of course I am looking at it from an export side. There are many pieces to this elephant and the report of single blind man is hardly comprehensive. I just have the advantage of knowing something about 60% of this elephant.

Conversations about lollipops or whinging farangs do little to help clarify the situation. The predictions of anyone economically no matter how well educated are probably only slightly better than what can be gotten at Erawan on a Sunday afternoon. I think it was Motley Fool that crunched the numbers and found only 10% of fund managers beat the Dow Index in any five year period. What does that tell you about the best and brightest?

In the end, because information is so scarce and if found at all, so massaged as to be worthless here, we should work hard at using our two ears to stay alert and prepared. Thanks to all for the personal comments, the data behind the numbers, the discussion of trends, the clarifications of market mechanisms. I am worried but not fatalistic regarding Thailands challenges, I just wish I had more faith in the ruling elite.

[highdiver]

No I am not American... however as of next week I am Thai. my citizenship application has been accepted.

How did this go, didn't see any Citizenships posited in the Gazette, did I miss it?

Regards

allready a thai. all the papers signed and staped.

[Prakanong]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

What's laughable is most of the negative foreigner posters on here couldn't even afford to buy a motorbike here in the first place without breaking out into a cold sweat.

Maybe we can start a 'Falang Charity Shop' for all of the bitter foreigners who despise the idea of Thais having MUCH more money than them; owning new cars and pickups, owning large houses and condos etc.

I've never been in a country where the foreigner population contains so many drop-outs, bums, neer-do-wells and losers.

two of the most ignorant and arrogant posters continue to display their combined ignorance .............

pick up sales domestically have also declined ,

and Palms knowledge of the gender of the Governor of the BOT is legendary ...........................

Mid, I am happy to see you are familiar with one of my favorite books of all time "Zen and the art of motorcycle maitainence" it's kind of an underground classic here in the states among us boomers! It is likely that Palm is just projecting his current substandard situation in life on the rest of us, I figured Palm out long ago and don't even waste time responding to him any longer. It's actually kind of sad, the poor chaps constant mantra about "all those poor farang bums who are just scaping by in Thailand" (when in fact many of the posters he assails actually live very comfortable lives in the states or elseware) and his unwillingness to recognize the downturn in the Thai economy brought on primarily by the strong baht. There does seem to be a growing consensous that if the FED cuts the funds rate by 50-75 basis points by years end, that it will actually help the dollar to appreciate (and in turn will help the baht to weaken), which will hopefully help to moderate the downturn in the Thai economy. Lets hope that consensous is correct for the sake of the Thai people, and of course all those "drop-out, bum, neer-do-well and loser farangs" (I couldn't resist) I hope that Palms' life, or at least his outlook on life improves, as it must be very depressing to be so bitter all of the time!

After Palm's insistance a while back that there was 'no evidence' of hedge funds causing an asset bubble I wonder if he is ready to admit he was 100% wrong, or would that be out of character for him?

The man changes with the wind - one time he is talking about multiples of condo's he is buying now its down to two - <deleted>?

Thailand does attract them - he will be ex-SAS next with a line to the biggest diamond in the world but its a secret.

Very odd people on TV. I've never said I was buying 'multiples of condos'. But if making things up makes you feel better, its amusing to read

I own 2 condos in Thailand, and purchased a third a few months ago at the Prime 11 in Suk 11. It will be finished in 18 months. Once all the payments are made in about 18 months time, I'll own 3 in Thailand.

What part didn't you understand?

I'm still waiting patiently for the huge downturn in prime condo prices. But since none of you whingers can actually afford to buy anything decent here anyway (Mid says he can't even scrape together 95,000 baht for PR!), I look forward to your great economic advice.

I'm not bitter at all in Thailand - I am having a GREAT time here in Thailand - funny reading how it upsets you all so much. Lots of cash, lots of free time, great restaurants, great travel around Asia, starting to play golf etc. Spending lots of time with great Thais; educated, considerate, honest, reliable, fun people. And a few foreigners who mostly run their own businesses (in Thailand and abroad).

Just because you get all upset when anyone points out your incomes are lower than checkout staff in supermarkets in the West, you have little immature tantrums like a bunch of schoolboys. It's easy to see why you are all so bitter about Thailand and the Thai people; your personal dreadful economic circumstances in Thailand show you for what you are; economic washouts.

Its great to see there is still life in the 'Bitter Falangs Personal Economies in Crisis' thread.

And in every post you display your ignorance.

Self actualisation on anonymous board - I bet your Thai friends are laughing at you as much as we are.

Mid life crisis - don't worry mate - you are not the first in Thailand

Edited September 11, 2007 by Prakanong

[ray23]

Xbusmen:

Thanks for a sensible post. Sorry to hear things are going that way for you.

A friend just recently relocated to China in a teaching position, much better pay and benefits. It has thus far been a pleasant surprise to him. Hope it goes the same way for you.

[Prakanong]

totaly agree with you.

in this froum we have 3 types of posters

1.those who live in thailand and enjoy it. and see the prosperity and the opertuntiy as well as those investors that just cant stop pouring in.

2.those who live in thailand but see the economy developing but its bad for them thus they cant afford it any more..and they cant afford to buy a new condo or afford a permanant residency for 3000usd those possters are lovingly called the dooms day brigade that find every negetivre news to support the fact that they will not be abler to live here in the near future..

3. those that dont even live here but have some intrest and thus posting views from a far based on cut and paste posts

4. Those that live here & make their money in Thai Baht in SME type businesses & don't rely on outside income.

The state of the Thai economy being up or down is very important to our minority group. We are the ones who aren't afraid to back up our words with actions.

So don't stuff this thread up with all your squabling....

Soundman.

Thanks Soundman, I like to think that I fit in that category. I have an export company that represents manufacturers in Thailand, Taiwan and China. Five years ago, the happening place was Thailand and we had a great business. I have steadily watched my manufacturers close, my products move to China, and my business dismantled here piece by piece as the baht steadily rose. Despite desperately trying to hold on, it looks like my final products will finally leave Thailand in the next year and with them, alas, so will I. During this rapid degeneration over the past two years, I was looking for solutions and explanations on what was happening and what could be done to combat it, hence my interest in the economy for exactly the reasons you stated. Perhaps my personal doom and gloom is strictly export related and related only to the wide range of manufacturers I used to work with here. Wouldnt you be a little gloomy to be forced to move from Thailand to China?

I am looking for that ray on sunshine that will bring Thailand back into the export game, as yet I have not found it. When the Thai baht is stronger than the Taiwan dollar, something is seriously out of whack and the ramifications for an export economy that allows that to happen is very concerning. The culture here facilitates denial of problems, rendering obtuse unpleasant facts or information, its just the way things are done here good or bad. Having a tenuous hold in a foreign country and not being a native speaker, we need to keep our radar on high for all events, particularly those which might overwhelm us.

This discussion of the economy seems to take on a religious fervor with small regard for the reality. The reality, as best I can tell, is that Thailand has some very strong fundamentals but faces some challenges that might be difficult if not impossible to overcome. I think that a desperate struggle is already in motion, but of course I am looking at it from an export side. There are many pieces to this elephant and the report of single blind man is hardly comprehensive. I just have the advantage of knowing something about 60% of this elephant.

Conversations about lollipops or whinging farangs do little to help clarify the situation. The predictions of anyone economically no matter how well educated are probably only slightly better than what can be gotten at Erawan on a Sunday afternoon. I think it was Motley Fool that crunched the numbers and found only 10% of fund managers beat the Dow Index in any five year period. What does that tell you about the best and brightest?

In the end, because information is so scarce and if found at all, so massaged as to be worthless here, we should work hard at using our two ears to stay alert and prepared. Thanks to all for the personal comments, the data behind the numbers, the discussion of trends, the clarifications of market mechanisms. I am worried but not fatalistic regarding Thailands challenges, I just wish I had more faith in the ruling elite.

Good post - I think along the same lines as you. The economy is diverse and in different segments and sectors there are winners and losers.

Of course its not all red roses and neither is it doom and gloom. Where is the genearal economy going though with respect to its competitors is one of the questions we should be asking

Who are Thailands competitors, which market sectors and segments?

Where does Thailand have competitive advantage - should it move into new segments?

Is the human capital rising in Thailand? - how does this compare to competitirs in the region / world?

What are the totality of economic indicators pointing towards - which ones are most important?

Investment may be rising but how does this compare with the region and/or similar economies?

What does a SWOT analysis look like for Thailand?

Looking out the window and seeing flowers in the garden and a nice lawn is no way to analyse ther economy and neither is taking figures in isoloation to see gloom.

[Heng]

Has the economy crashed yet?

[Prakanong]

Has the economy crashed yet?

Don't hold your breath

Looking at some interesting accounts last night - company with 21 million dollars cash at bank borrowing 15 million to invest in shares outside its core business!

Money must be cheap???

[Mid]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

What's laughable is most of the negative foreigner posters on here couldn't even afford to buy a motorbike here in the first place without breaking out into a cold sweat.

Maybe we can start a 'Falang Charity Shop' for all of the bitter foreigners who despise the idea of Thais having MUCH more money than them; owning new cars and pickups, owning large houses and condos etc.

I've never been in a country where the foreigner population contains so many drop-outs, bums, neer-do-wells and losers.

two of the most ignorant and arrogant posters continue to display their combined ignorance .............

pick up sales domestically have also declined ,

and Palms knowledge of the gender of the Governor of the BOT is legendary ...........................

It's not what you say, it's the thought behind it that counts, and I know there's never any thought behind anything you say.

infact thoughts must bean unfamiliar territory for you.

People can't say that you have absolutely nothing! After all, you have inferiority! and a very big one judging by your posts.

it must be a realy sad life living in Samui with nothing better to do then sitting on your pc and posting one liners on every post on every thread..

can't attack the message attack the messanger ...........................

FOOL

Edited September 11, 2007 by Mid

[LaoPo]

Has the economy crashed yet?

Don't hold your breath

Looking at some interesting accounts last night - company with 21 million dollars cash at bank borrowing 15 million to invest in shares outside its core business!

Money must be cheap???

Risky...I've seen a lot of people -lured by Banks (!)- go down under when they invested borrowed money in the stock market. Many of them with the overvalue of their house.

In your example the money of the core business as a probable guanrantee, which could bring down the same company.

LaoPo

[Prakanong]

Has the economy crashed yet?

Don't hold your breath

Looking at some interesting accounts last night - company with 21 million dollars cash at bank borrowing 15 million to invest in shares outside its core business!

Money must be cheap???

Risky...I've seen a lot of people -lured by Banks (!)- go down under when they invested borrowed money in the stock market. Many of them with the overvalue of their house.

In your example the money of the core business as a probable guanrantee, which could bring down the same company.

LaoPo

Yes its risky and that is why it was presented as so - more so that any other equity owners should be asking questions regarding strategy

Except

It is a listed company but it is mostly family owned so not many other shareholders to complain.

Luxury watch business with an outlet in Thailand as well.

[LaoPo]

Has the economy crashed yet?

Don't hold your breath

Looking at some interesting accounts last night - company with 21 million dollars cash at bank borrowing 15 million to invest in shares outside its core business!

Money must be cheap???

Risky...I've seen a lot of people -lured by Banks (!)- go down under when they invested borrowed money in the stock market. Many of them with the overvalue of their house.

In your example the money of the core business as a probable guanrantee, which could bring down the same company.

LaoPo

Yes its risky and that is why it was presented as so - more so that any other equity owners should be asking questions regarding strategy

Except

It is a listed company but it is mostly family owned so not many other shareholders to complain.

Luxury watch business with an outlet in Thailand as well.

Just curious, listed in which country or stock market ?

But, whether -mostly- family owned or not, I think it is a shameful step towards the remainder share holders...since their money is at risk as well.

LaoPo

[Naam]

Has the economy crashed yet?

it's only a matter of time. give it a decade or two

[unforgiven]

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy is in crisis and the government must stimulate state and private investment to make consumption recover if it wants to see the country weather the economic crisis, a leading economist warned Friday.

This seems a bit overblown. If the Thai economy is in crisis today, how would one describe its state in late 1997?

I wasn't living in Thailand in 1997 but as I recall it was limited to economic issues.

I don't think it's overblown one bit to describe the situation now as another crisis -and in fact I think it's

even worse now than in 1997 because now we have bitter divisions between the Thai people themselves-

and speculation that will be unrest........

get a grip!!!I was living in Thai in 97 and this is completely different.the thai middle class disapeared thanks to george soros and the devaluation of the thai baut,1 usd=55baut the stock market went from around 1200 to 200 overnight and many people were wiped out.The unrest today is a is a peanut.Thakisin is gone ,thank god and his cronies who were about to form a phyfdom are pissed.The Thai upperclass that weren't in thaxsins favour finally had enough and thaxsins maipulative attempts to bribe the rural peasants with the 20 bt medical scheme and the education increase were seem for what they are .The countries gdp contracted for a few years in the late 90'snot so now so relax . The country will grow by about 3% this year ,free elections will occur and thaxin will be held accountable.Thailand is looking good over a 5 year horizon

[LaoPo]

I was living in Thai in 97 and this is completely different.the thai middle class disapeared thanks to george soros and the devaluation of the thai baht,1 usd=55baht the stock market went from around 1200 to 200 overnight and many people were wiped out.

"The foreign ministers of the 10 ASEAN countries believed that the well co-ordinated manipulation of currencies was a deliberate attempt to destabilize the ASEAN economies. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused currency speculator George Soros of ruining Malaysia's economy with massive currency speculation, an accusation which few economists take seriously (Soros appears to have had his bets in against the Asian currency devaluations, incurring a loss when the crisis hit)."

I think the 1997 financial crisis was a little more complicated than addressing it to one man...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis

&

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo1297/index.htm

&

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/50/index-a.html

LaoPo

[Heng]

Has the economy crashed yet?

it's only a matter of time. give it a decade or two

Cool. Most of the analysts like to say in the next few months (every few months).

[John K]

Looking at some of the indicators that I see as critical to the economy, ex-pats spend between 10 and 20 times more than Thais, I don’t think there is much argument there. Looking at how many have left because of the visa law changes, Jacks Golf visa run service has gone from 14 runs a week to Cambodia to just 3 a week. That applies to VOA. Quick numbers 21% of what it was. Trace that across Thailand to see the scope. Those numbers are trackable to the regular economy and not the tourist economy.

The 30% rule on money for companies that is slowly disappearing is another self inflicted wound.

The bottom line is a significant part of the problem is self inflicted wounds by not thinking things out. I personally see this as traceable to the Thai education system. Take that a step further and you will see that this will lead to a very few smart people making the decisions, supported by greedy politicians, governing a population with paper educations and nothing between the ears to match that attractive document imprinted with a university seal.

Fielding potential politicians without the ability to think and resolve problems leads to the inability to remove the corrupt government with anything less than forceful means.

Once the government is removed a series of both temporary and permanent adjustments are set in place. The skill level of the replacement government will dictate the quality of the fixes. The replacement government must also content with delaying and sabotaging by the forcefully removed government. That has the tendency to distract and further divide the replacement government’s attention.

The cycle must be broken for Thailand to grow. The education system would need to be the first step however it will take over a decade for that seed to grow if planted today. The education system today only serves the few in power who implemented it.

The second step would be strong laws that promptly discourage people who would seek government office for self serving reasons. That will leave only truly dedicated people. It appears this process is nearly done.

The Third step is to review and modify any hastily enacted decisions that are hurting the economy. Once that is done then Thailand will have a fighting chance to re-board the global economy train.

[Prakanong]

"The cycle must be broken for Thailand to grow. The education system would need to be the first step however it will take over a decade for that seed to grow if planted today. The education system today only serves the few in power who implemented it.

The second step would be strong laws that promptly discourage people who would seek government office for self serving reasons. That will leave only truly dedicated people. It appears this process is nearly done."

While I agree broadly with the spending pattern of Expats (are people who need visa runs expats or extended holiday makerss) I doubt there are that many of them to make a difference in cnsumer spending vis a vis the Thai's - visa run guys are the bottom end of the marklet are they not plus the loss of consumer confidence by Thai's and thus lower consumer spending is larger by many factors than any expat losses.

Yes, education should be re-structured but I think 10 years is much too optimistic - how long did Singapore take to see the benefits of he system it set up and how far is Malaysia down the line?

Its your point about the system being changed to produce only dedicated people and this being nearly done - that is absolute hogwash. You really think there is going to be change. To paraphrase that crass term its going to be "Same same and no different".

I can remember the hope of the 97 constution (can you?) about changes and less corruption. I know of no Thai or foreign observer who thinks "strong laws that promptly discourage people who would seek government office for self serving reasons. That will leave only truly dedicated people. It appears this process is nearly done."

Reality is an option!

[John K]

Remove the incentive and the behavior stop.

Edited September 12, 2007 by John K

[Prakanong]

And your counter point is????????

- I have countered you points - please try to comprehend.

Your assumptions about the spending power of visa run expats and the effect on the Thai economy asa whole are rubbish.

How many visa run expats were there in the boom year's of the early 90's?

Your idea that laws are nearly in place to produce Thai politicians who are not corrupt and who are not in it for themsleves and cronies is laughable.

[John K]

What I am saying is a very general overview of how I see things. The need or desire to go into specifics is not my intent but only to encourage debate. Remove the fuel and the fire will die, replace the fuel with another type and the fire burns a different color.

[Prakanong]

What I am saying is a very general overview of how I see things. The need or desire to go into specifics is not my intent but only to encourage debate. Remove the fuel and the fire will die, replace the fuel with another type and the fire burns a different color.

Encouraging debate is laudable but it might sometime be prudent to look at the assumptions behind any positions stated to encourage that debate.

If the point can not be defended after even a little thought about it e the total effect on the Thai economy of visa run farangs!

Of course there are no official figures of this sample due to the visa's they are on and the fact most ofthem do not have work permits. There was a figure of circa 60K WP's but I do not know if that is BKK only or Thailand as a whole.

If you compare that to say Singapore with almost 900,000 permit holders of one sort or another you can see the comparitive difference on affects on the economy in that group.

[palm]

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year grew 4.4 percent against 4.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/6253875.html

Thai Firms confident export growth can hit 12.5%

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/12Sep2007_biz37.php

Nothing like a bit of economic reality to upset the whingers.

[Mid]

Nothing like a bit of economic reality

unlikely to be coming from one who is unaware of the gender of the BOT Governor .......................

[Mid]

Thai Firms confident export growth can hit 12.5%

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/12Sep2007_biz37.php

Dej Pathanasethpong, president of the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association, suggested that manufacturers invite trade partners, especially from the European Union, to make investments in Thailand.

Thailand refuses to sign agreement with EU on poll-watch mission

Wednesday, September 12, 2007 at 05:28

Bangkok (dpa) - Thailand has refused to sign an agreement with the European Union over sending election observers for the December 23 polls, effectively scotching the EU proposal, diplomatic sources said Wednesday.

snip

eux.tv

[Mid]

AGRIBUSINESS / CHICKEN AND SHRIMP

Olarn warns of more closures

ARANEE JAIIMSIN

Wednesday September 12, 2007

An increasing number of manufacturers will likely close unless the government can control the baht's value at 34 per US dollar within the next six months, according to banking expert Olarn Chaipravat. The Bank of Thailand should hire expert foreign-exchange traders to help manage exchange-rate policies, he said.

Dr Olarn, a former president of Siam Commercial Bank and central banker, said at least 300 factories in the textile, garment and furniture industries had been quietly closed over the past 18 months.

snip

bangkokpost.com

[Mid]

AGRIBUSINESS / CHICKEN AND SHRIMP

CPF profits hit by material costs

Company to refocus on brand-building

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

Wednesday September 12, 2007

Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc plans to focus on improving value-added content and expanding overseas sales to reduce the impact of the baht's appreciation on its exports, said Veeravat Kanchanadul, senior executive vice-president of the parent CP Group. The company would also focus on strengthening its brand image and boosting margins rather than simply increasing the quantity of shrimp and chicken exports, he said yesterday.

About 15-20% of its exports are in the form of processed food, which offer attractive margins, he said. Currently CPF derives 85% of its revenue from domestic sales and 15% from exports.

snip

bangkokpost.com

[Mid]

Slump in foreign visitors 15% fall in those booking via agents

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Published on September 12, 2007

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.

The association's figures show that the arrivals were down by 350,000 from 1.92 million in the first eight months of 2006.

snip

nationmultimedia.com