Cambodia And Vietnam: Bad Alternatives

[SoCal]

Texas BBQ

206 Pasteur, D3

HCMC, Vietnam

[Furbie]

See, the problem with being an American today is easy access to knowledge, which unfortunately includes easy access to one-sided knowledge and people who really love to selectively promote information because it falls in line with their view of things – a tactic knows as selective arguments, or cherry picking.

snip...

Well Furbie, I'm sorry but I have to disagree with what you wrote here. 90% of the mainstream media is owned by a small number of corporations aligned and with an evident conflict of interest, that's what the masses use to form their opinion.

I don't see why you think it's unfortunate that some people is smart enough to think out of the box and use the internet to research and exchange opinions ( Here I'm guessing you refer to the net as an easy access to knowledge). An open access to various opinions is an enrichment for a free society in my book.

Cherry picking is not a product of the easy access to knowledge.

No, what I find unfortunate is that people cherry pick the information that supports their cause – it is now just to easy to find sources that will back any opinion, no matter how ridiculous the source. Most people are not disciplined enough to look at subject matter intelligently and objectively, they tend to look at it passionately; which is why you can convince someone that the problems in the world today are not your government's fault, it's the American government's fault, so go hijack a plane and kill innocent people. Why look at your own crappy situation, clearly it's someone else's fault this happened – the Jews, the Americans, the blacks, the whites, the purples – never mind we are an oil rich country whose leaders hog all the money and natural resources and buy a Mercedes for each day of the week – its because of America you don't have a job and have to sit around with nothing to do all day but read the Koran.

Again, saying that the atrocities committed by the Khmer Rouge are because of America's bombing of Cambodia is to ignore reality and the role of half a dozen actors in Cambodian politics long before America arrived on the scene. It would be the same as me saying it was because of Chinese intervention in Cambodian affairs or Vietnamese intervention in Cambodian affairs (and I can find lots of info to support this) – which is much closer to the truth, but still not there. How about the French who made no move to help establish some system of working local government? Or how about blaming the Cambodian elite, who for hundreds of years gave away pieces of the country to Thailand and Vietnam as their petty rulers attacked each other in civil war after civil war for power? Now we are getting somewhere, these people have been locked in a bitter power struggle over who will rule the country for ages – only now do we see it settling down.

That is the problem with easy access to information – most people are looking to make a point and look for the information to make that point, as opposed to looking at the information with skepticism and using it to form an opinion after examining competing information.

My original point is, it is tough to be an American, because people all over the world have an opinion already, based not of facts, but passion. Then, they go on line and see someone who wrote that America is responsible for this, America is responsible for that…blah, blah, blah. Ah ha, see I knew it, America is bad – the mainstream media has an agenda. So, again, the problem with being an American today, is easy access to (inaccurate) information, and the people who run around claiming it is fact.

[shochu]

I have no doubts vietnam is on the way up and I do hope they succeed in reaching a good level of economic benefits, but I have to wonder.

I spent a month in vietnam and traveled down the length of the country and always considered it a possible place to invest. When I was there a few years a go, and sensed the energy, I couldn't help thinking how everyone was scrambling to get to the top and I will be the first to admit the vietnamese know how to work hard.

But what I wonder is, after the late 90's when many firms pulled out due to the lengthy problems in getting things through and all the palm greasing - and now with the supposed changes I have heard about regarding all this and how they are now more pro-business - having just recently talked to a friend who was there not too long ago - saying that things were still the same and perhaps just large businesses with connections were going in because they really had no choice - and they were willing to put up with the hassles to be close to china.

Have the companies just bitten the bullet and are just going with it, or have things really improved. I am hearing they are still constantly moving the goal posts and changing the rules just to get a cut. And as I mentioned in an earlier post - even the vietnamese are having problems getting things done.

The dude - although you say it is alll clearly written re: the business rules - we all know that we still have to go through the individuals who may be asking for their cut. AND I have never been to a country where I had to work hard at not being ripped off. How have things improved in this respect?

And I do recall the owner of Q-Bar saying he would never go back to vietnam after starting his bar there.

If someone - thedude - Tyree-D. - can explain - I'm sure it would be helpful for many here who might be contemplating a venture in the country.

Ultimately, how have things improved? Can someone explain?

[SoCal]

Shochu,

I have been comming to Vietnam on business since '01, and living here since '05. Vietnam is changing at a very rapid pace, and if you haven't been here in a few years, then it is fairly safe to say that you haven't really been.

It is fairly easy to do business here, and much like anywhere else, I have friends who are successful and others who seem to only find failure despite their best efforts.

I have never been hit up for tea money, or palm greasing as you like to call it. I sometimes pay for favors, but I am never asked. The authorities are very welcoming to foreigners whether business or tourist, and largely because of this go out of their way to not hit you up. Now, they may very well hit up your staff, wife, etc., but they will not tangle with you, and if you confront them they will back down. At least by my experience.

Most of the postings here are by people that have no idea what they are talking about, or some strange history lesson. If you are serious about investment, then come check it out for yourself, and make your own decision.

Personaly, I enjoy myself in Thailand more. Find Vietnam better for investment, and cheaper and easier (visa, etc) to live.

[JR Texas]

Shochu,

I have been comming to Vietnam on business since '01, and living here since '05. Vietnam is changing at a very rapid pace, and if you haven't been here in a few years, then it is fairly safe to say that you haven't really been.

It is fairly easy to do business here, and much like anywhere else, I have friends who are successful and others who seem to only find failure despite their best efforts.

I have never been hit up for tea money, or palm greasing as you like to call it. I sometimes pay for favors, but I am never asked. The authorities are very welcoming to foreigners whether business or tourist, and largely because of this go out of their way to not hit you up. Now, they may very well hit up your staff, wife, etc., but they will not tangle with you, and if you confront them they will back down. At least by my experience.

Most of the postings here are by people that have no idea what they are talking about, or some strange history lesson. If you are serious about investment, then come check it out for yourself, and make your own decision.

Personaly, I enjoy myself in Thailand more. Find Vietnam better for investment, and cheaper and easier (visa, etc) to live.

JR Texas to SoCal: Thank you so much for that informative post. So, Vietnam is better in terms of starting a business, visa issues, and cost of living (the latter surprised me). Thailand is better for "enjoyment." By enjoyment do you mean the girls, food, culture, other? Have you found a big difference between northern and southern Vietnam? Do Westerners prefer one to the other region? Thanks.

[thedude]

sochu, the legal framework is a basic building block for investment, its one of the first things serious investors study to understand where exactly the risks are and where their fallback position is. the problem with thailand now is that no one knows where the fallback position is.

business in asia is never straightforward, and vietnam in particular remains a challenging place to do business because there is still a lot of red tape and you have to look after a lot of interests. but the flip side is that once you get set up, a large market opens itself up to you and you are not unfairly treated to limit your competitiveness. if you get in early, the upside potential is better than more mature economies like in thailand.

how is it different from before? for one, vietnam just joined the WTO and so there's more at stake for it to comply to international standards including guarantees for protection of investment. secondly there is a new team of ministers in power in vietnam, including the new prime minister who is from the south and they are pro-growth and pro-market reform as opposed to the older generation of party bureaucrats.

[Plus]

I have no doubt that Vietnam will go up and up and up economically, just like Thailand grew by 10% annualy and was a darling of all sorts of investors.

Now everyone is high and full of hope but by the laws of nature it won't last forever and how Vietnam responds to its inevitable problems will be a real test.

Pretty soon hormons will start playing up, bureaucracy will become a problem, business will want to get into power and protect its turf, old party guard won't give up easily and so on. In the long term maybe the question of political system not catching up with the rest of the country will be the most important.

Things move faster now than twenty years ago. Dot com bubble went through all the stages in just five years, for example. Vietnam will become a crowded place sooner than Thailand, too.

[dumspero]

Plus- Agreed. Few posters seem to share this view.

Many talk about how easy it is right now to set up a business, get a visa, etc. So maybe they are addressing Vietnam as a short term viable alternative to Thailand. But they are missing the point/not responding re long term.

Similarly with Thailand, many point to the immediate uncertainty and yet don't talk about why this particular period of short term uncertainty will mean any kind of larger scale long term uncertainty (which of course would be different from past periods of uncertainty in Thailand).

Guess it's driven by people reading the OP the way they want, and nothing wrong with that I suppose. For those looking over the next few years, sure I would agree Vietnam and Cambodia are no problem. But for people making predictions about ten years from now, I just don't see anyone explaining how or why Vietnam or Cambodia will cope with their growing pains better than Thailand.

I know I keep making this point on this topic, but am hoping someone will respond to this point rather than history lessons (although interesting) or how they can stay in Cambodia or Vietnam right now, have a business and a visa and it's all so great compared to Thailand right now given the visa situation.

[SoCal]

JR- Thailand has much more options for someone who wants to live a more western lifestyle. This too is changing in Vietnam, but Vietnam is still behind the curve on this aspect. For western type things Vietnam can be more expensive due to supply and demand, but over all I would say Vietnam is cheaper, and making headway on the western aspects (activities/food) as supply increases. I can go to Texas BBQ (popular American hang out) and have a hamburger for $2, and a beer for $0.75. This is in a big/popular western restaurant, and would judge quite reasonable. Per your previous posts, for some reason Vietnamese love BBQ, and make up about 75% of the clientele.

A very nice aspect about Vietnam, and don't ask me why, is that the dollar only continues to strengthen against the dong. Years ago it was 6,000 to 1. When I moved here it was 15,900 to 1. Now it is about 16,100 to 1. Lowering costs on western things and an appreciating dollar make Vietnam a nice alternative to many other areas. Also, because of less foreigners at this point the labor market is still quite strong. Even teachers make $2,500-3,000/mo.

As far as investment, I would stay away from that, at least for a year after moving here. It takes time to observe, and most importantly to build the relationships you need. Relationships are important is Asia, and maybe even more so in Vietnam. If you know the right people, you can experience unsurpassed returns on your investment. I invested 1 billion in a venture, and was handed back 2.5 billion 6 months later. That is pretty unheard of in most regions of the world, but is quite commonplace here.

North and south Vietnam are almost two different worlds. I live in HCM, but I enjoy HAN. HCM is probably a better place for western things, and business minded people.

Plus- You are quite right. Should be true of anywhere. That is not a reason to not catch the wave, when you can realize ROI at 200-300%. I value my local partner's business prowess more than just about anybody, and he estimates 3-4 more years of this type of crazy ROI. Who is to say what happens after that. A leveling off, a downturn, etc? Only Dunspero sits in his arm chair, never having visited either HCM or PNH, and stares into his crystal ball claiming to know the future. Thailand is going to overcome all it's present difficulties, and Cambodia and Vietnam are going to slip into political instability/anarchy. Easy to say. Hard to prove or disprove. Personaly I plan to be where the going is good, and always have an exit strategy regardless of if I am living in BKK, SGN, or even the USA. I would be perfectly content to pack my bags in 4-5 years and head back to Thailand. Now a days I see no compelling reason.

[dumspero]

SoCal- Is that what I said? That Vietnam and Cambodia will slip into anarchy? And I'm in an armchair, or workig hard elsewhere in the Pacific Rim? Anyway, good for you and best wishes with your business.

[Temporaneo]

Shochu,

I have been comming to Vietnam on business since '01, and living here since '05. Vietnam is changing at a very rapid pace, and if you haven't been here in a few years, then it is fairly safe to say that you haven't really been.

It is fairly easy to do business here, and much like anywhere else, I have friends who are successful and others who seem to only find failure despite their best efforts.

I have never been hit up for tea money, or palm greasing as you like to call it. I sometimes pay for favors, but I am never asked. The authorities are very welcoming to foreigners whether business or tourist, and largely because of this go out of their way to not hit you up. Now, they may very well hit up your staff, wife, etc., but they will not tangle with you, and if you confront them they will back down. At least by my experience.

Most of the postings here are by people that have no idea what they are talking about, or some strange history lesson. If you are serious about investment, then come check it out for yourself, and make your own decision.

Personaly, I enjoy myself in Thailand more. Find Vietnam better for investment, and cheaper and easier (visa, etc) to live.

How are visa rules in Vietnam ? For what I know , there is not even the Visa Exemption on Arrival, you need to get a VISA at Vietnam Embassy before your trip. And once it expires, can you extend it ?

Also are you allowed to own your condo/house or it is like China were all land belongs to the Party...ermmmhhh...I meant... to the People ?

If you change your $ in dong to purchase bonds/stocks/businesses will you be able to change them back to $ and wire them out country when disinvesting ?