Covid-19 effect: Thai economy takes 7.8% hit for 2020 - recovery two years away

 

Image: Manager 

 

The monetary policy committee of the Bank of Thailand estimates that the Thai economy will contract 7.8% this year due to the disastrous effect of the coronavirus pandemic. 

 

This is a slight improvement of previous forecasts of 8.1% due to better Gross Domestic Product figures from June, reported Manager.

 

However, the bottom line is that the Thai economy will take at least two years to recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.

 

Source: Manager

 

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Anyone else questioning the validity of their declaration that the economy is only taking a 7.8% hit?  

 

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

Thai economy will contract 7.8% this year due to the disastrous effect of the coronavirus pandemic. 

no, Thai economy will contract 7.8% this year due to the disastrous effect of the governments knee jerk reaction to shut down economy.

if anything, a few less retirees to feed

would be a positive in the bank balance

Edited September 26, 20205 yr by scammed

The Governor of Phuket has said that 70% of hotels, shops, bars and restaurants have closed in Phuket have closed. Of the open hotels they are operating at 20% capacity during the week and around 55% capacity at weekends and bank holidays. Pattaya is only slightly better. The only thing holding up exports is the export of gold without gold exports would be down over 15%. The baht is artificially high and the <deleted> is yet to hit the fan.

Seems a total piece of science fiction -7.8% drop to me. We keep hearing foreign tourism is 10-20% of Thai GDP. Even at 10% that is a drop of say 8% to the GDP on its own, allowing for some tourism in 1st qtr. On top of that , exports are down about 10% and businesses are shutting like turkeys being culled for Xmas. 

 

My estimate 15% easily

Add at least another two years to their two and then another two to be sure.  There is so much nonsense mouthed off by these people who only worry about their own income !

Sorry but the junta was already crashing the country down, down, down so unless there is a civilian government and the criminal generals are thrown in prison Thailand will never recover.

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

and businesses are shutting like turkeys being culled for Xmas

Aren't you stuck in Blackpool or was that someone else 

6 hours ago, impulse said:

Anyone else questioning the validity of their declaration that the economy is only taking a 7.8% hit?  

 

Me

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems a total piece of science fiction -7.8% drop to me. We keep hearing foreign tourism is 10-20% of Thai GDP. Even at 10% that is a drop of say 8% to the GDP on its own, allowing for some tourism in 1st qtr. On top of that , exports are down about 10% and businesses are shutting like turkeys being culled for Xmas. 

 

My estimate 15% easily

15% drop in GDP is a realistic number.

Worse is to follow as the real impact of Covid19 hits.

Many Export producing Factories have just Exported goods that are for Christmas / New Year consumption, and would have been ordered pre Covid

I doubt if the orders that are following are anything near as good for the Exporters, and will see a further reduction in their performance going into the New Year.

Also more Thai consumers are having to reel in their spending in order to keep the family wheels and House as the debt restructuring takes a grip