Thai Stocks

[bingobongo]

Thailand Court Ruling Creates `Buying Opportunity'

By Dominic G. Diongson

June 14 (Bloomberg)

"His Thai Focused Equity Fund Ltd., a $300 million hedge fund"

this guy runs a $300 million hedge fund, of course he is going to say "buy", as the little guy gets suckered in to buy, he will sell, and he makes his fees reagardless of what the SET does

sort of like a realtor saying it is always a good time to buy real estate

Edited June 14, 2007 by bingobongo

[Arkady]

Thailand Court Ruling Creates `Buying Opportunity'

By Dominic G. Diongson

June 14 (Bloomberg)

Foreigners have been net buyers for most of this year and have become even more bullish since the Const Tribunal ruling. Locals are still net sellers for the most part, since they are more sensitive to the noise made by Thaksin's paid rabble rousers. The Nation has it spot on today. Toxin likes to act tough and stir up trouble here but he ain't coming back to face the music. The longer term for the economy still looks murky and there are many intractable problems to address, particularly competitiveness and the related problems of education, corruption and complacency and selfishness of the elite. Therefore Thailand faces a lower long term sustainable growth rate than most of Asia over the next decade or more. However, it is at a low point now and investment (private and government) are set to rebound along with private consumption. The key point to focus on is the elections which are not going to be postponed. They will bring hope of better things to come, even though the reality will be disappointing. BUY now rather than chase prices later on when Thai retail investors finally become net buyers indicating the final blow off stage in the market.

Edited June 15, 2007 by Arkady

[Donnyboy]

Thailand Court Ruling Creates `Buying Opportunity'

By Dominic G. Diongson

June 14 (Bloomberg)

Foreigners have been net buyers for most of this year and have become even more bullish since the Const Tribunal ruling. Locals are still net sellers for the most part, since they are more sensitive to the noise made by Thaksin's paid rabble rousers. The Nation has it spot on today. Toxin likes to act tough and stir up trouble here but he ain't coming back to face the music. The longer term for the economy still looks murky and there are many intractable problems to address, particularly competitiveness and the related problems of education, corruption and complacency and selfishness of the elite. Therefore Thailand faces a lower long term sustainable growth rate than most of Asia over the next decade or more. However, it is at a low point now and investment (private and government) are set to rebound along with private consumption. The key point to focus on is the elections which are not going to be postponed. They will bring hope of better things to come, even though the reality will be disappointing. BUY now rather than chase prices later on when Thai retail investors finally become net buyers indicating the final blow off stage in the market.

any paticular sectors or stocks you r'mend?

[Arkady]

Thailand Court Ruling Creates `Buying Opportunity'

By Dominic G. Diongson

June 14 (Bloomberg)

"His Thai Focused Equity Fund Ltd., a $300 million hedge fund"

this guy runs a $300 million hedge fund, of course he is going to say "buy", as the little guy gets suckered in to buy, he will sell, and he makes his fees reagardless of what the SET does

sort of like a realtor saying it is always a good time to buy real estate

I have no connection with the guy in question but you are wrong about hedge fund managers in general. Realtors cannot recommend shorting the property market or going temporarily to cash and nor can long only fund managers. This is a hedge fund that can short the market, individual stocks and the baht and go to a cash position of well over 50%, if it is bearish. It can also leverage through borrowing and futures and over-the-counter options, if the manager is very bullish about the market. Hedge fund managers are not going to attract new money by sounding bullish all the time and getting it wrong. I am also not defending the breed in particular as adding value on a consistent basis but they do have to live and die by their market calls and have nothing to gain by faking them.

[Mid]

Trading Summary Classified by

Investor Types

As of 14 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 5,524.07 5,373.67 150.41

Institution 1,429.38 1,076.94 352.44

Foreign 3,930.88 4,433.72 -502.84

Total Trading Value 10,884.33 M.Baht

and what happened to last weeks supposed support level ??

down , down , down , and the flames rose higher ................

[Mid]

Thailand: Stocks Increase On Announcement

June 14, 2007 11 35 GMT

Thai army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin appeared on television June 14 to deny rumors that he is set to fire Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont or impose martial law in Thailand. Thailand's benchmark stock exchange, the SET, fell 2.2 percent June 13 as a result of the rumors, but increased by a little more than 1 percent following the announcement.

give me two ,

ok , I'll give you one back ,

see how you've increased ??

[Arkady]

Trading Summary Classified by

Investor Types

As of 14 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 5,524.07 5,373.67 150.41

Institution 1,429.38 1,076.94 352.44

Foreign 3,930.88 4,433.72 -502.84

Total Trading Value 10,884.33 M.Baht

and what happened to last weeks supposed support level ??

down , down , down , and the flames rose higher ................

You have to be able to cope with the volatility of Thailand which is consistently more than the S & P 500 or MSCI Global and look at trends of more than one day. Every one should invest according to their own risk appetite and expectations of returns. I have been increasing my exposure to Thai equities over the last few weeks and continue to do so on a 6-9 month view. Personally, in addition to individual Thai stocks I like the Thai Fund (TTF) in New York which is at a 5% premium to NAV but has often traded at a 20% premium in recent years and probably willl again before year end. Invest or not is your own choice.

[Mid]

Invest or not is your own choice.

respected ,

my beef is with the rose coloured glasses crew.

ps , worth a read , the info is in the second half of the article

Thai listed companies record over THB 110 billion in profits for Q1/2007

Edited June 15, 2007 by Mid

[Arkady]

Invest or not is your own choice.

respected ,

my beef is with the rose coloured glasses crew.

ps , worth a read , the info is in the second half of the article

Thai listed companies record over THB 110 billion in profits for Q1/2007

Earnings in 1Q07 are <deleted>, particularly banks which represent a sizeable chunk. But that is likely to be close to the inflexion point. Thai equities are still priced in the expectation that earnings will not recover. I just received something from McQuarrie indicating they think EPS growth for their own universe of Thai stocks will be 9.7% in 07 and 14.9% in 08, following -9.7% in 06. The negative momentum seemed to have come thro into 1Q07 and maybe they need to revise down a bit but it is expectations for 08 that will drive share prices over the next few months (not the actual reality of 08 earnings). McQ put the market on 9.5x earnings for 08 and a 4.9% which is quite a compelling value argument at about a 20% discount to the next cheapest market, Korea, particularly if sentiment over 08 earnings will turn more positive generally.

[Mid]

all of the above is built on the premise that the elections will solve the problems .

Good gains to be had , if they do

I'm definitely wait 'n see till the referendum.

[Arkady]

all of the above is built on the premise that the elections will solve the problems .

Good gains to be had , if they do

I'm definitely wait 'n see till the referendum.

I am not sure if they will or not but expectations are likely to be that they will. The referendum could certainly create problems but I think that the CNS will have to present a modified version of the 97 constitution as an alternative which will lessen the problems. Anyway it may create another buying opportunity.

[Taggart]

International Herald Tribune

10 years after Asian crisis, recovery is uneven

Published: June 19, 2007

Investors got a flashback to the 1997 crisis in December when the Thai central bank imposed capital controls in an attempt to weaken the currency, sending Thai stocks plummeting 15 percent in one day and rattling regional markets.

Authorities quickly exempted stocks and foreign direct investment from the rules, helping the market bounce back. Investors were also reassured to know that Thailand had US$65 billion in foreign currency reserves, far more than in 1997.

Still, Thailand's bungled effort to impose capital controls underscore the lingering challenges that Asia's emerging economies face in handling international money flows in search of higher returns.

[dairy queen]

Interesting day on the SET. Volumes were huge today [compared to recently]. Nearly THB 47 bn. Could this be the start of the bull market?

The SET has been creepting up ever since the capital controls - 20%+ has been added since the market tanked.

After today SET 1,000 in the near term seems possible...Even likely...I scoffed at the idea just a couple of days ago...

Foreigners are leading the charge so far...

---------------------------[TRADING DATE:03 Jul 2007]--------------------------

STOCK TRADING(SET) BUY - SELL - BUY+SELL %

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[VALUE (K.Baht)] 3 Jul 2007

CUSTOMER 21,945,816 | 30,780,435 | 52,726,251 (56.17%)

INSTITUTE 6,368,192 | 5,361,126 | 11,729,318 (12.49%)

FOREIGN 18,613,816 | 10,786,262 | 29,400,078 (31.32%)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 46,927,824 | 46,927,823 | 93,855,646 (100.0%)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[VALUE/MONTH (K.Baht)] 2 Jul 2007 - 03 Jul 2007

CUSTOMER 34,843,086 | 46,337,459 | 81,180,545 (57.07%)

INSTITUTE 9,783,764 | 8,655,528 | 18,439,292 (12.96%)

FOREIGN 26,489,105 | 16,122,968 | 42,612,073 (29.95%)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 71,115,955 | 71,115,955 | 142,231,910 (100.0%)

---------------------------[TRADING DATE:03 Jul 2007]--------------------------

Edited July 3, 2007 by dairy queen