Ban On Political Party Activities Lifted

[ColPyat]

TRT functionaries have told me that this was the critical thing in their big majorities.

Naturally.

Village headmen are the lowest elected position in Thailand, but elementary to communicate and explain government policies to the villagers.

TRT's base of success is that it has drawn all these villages into politics by a mix of modern marketing strategies and the on the ground knowledge of the 'October people' within TRT, and of course the inevitable canvasser network.

Different than under previous governments, the communication was in fact more of a two way street - village headmen did also communicate back to the government, and not just government decisions down.

Things are a lot more complex that the simple statements that TRT corrupted village headmen who then forced people to vote for TRT.

Conditions and local customs in villages have to be looked at. Of course it is not an ideal situation, but one cannot make TRT responsible for the results of decades of mis-development. No government in Thailand can possibly initiate changes without the use of village headmen.

Also now the junta uses the exact same system to communicate their policies, and this is much more of a top to bottom communication only.

Changes have to come, and that will take a lot of time. With the present disappearance of TRT this system has not disappeared. Education and equal opportunities are a key factor. But what the present government has done - such as taking away the rice subsidies, we are further from that goal than before.

A future weak coalition government between Democrats, and whichever local godfather parties they form coalitions with is not able to initiate these necessary changes either. It hasn't in the past, and that is one of the major reasons for TRT success.

And there are more than a few vested interests who are not comfortable with the idea that villagers might develop their own ideas how the country should be run, both within some of the many factions that made up TRT and very strongly within the present military government.

Things aren't as easy as bad evil TRT vs. the "virtuous and moral ones". I would strongly suggest to read Bowie's "Rituals of National Loyalty". This excellent book goes very deep into the complexities of village level Thailand, and how this is connected to Bangkok.

[ColPyat]

I agree 100% with both of your reply posts. I am trying to make some sense of the anti junta rallies.

If you want to make sense of what is going on i would strongly suggest to read the many books and studies i have suggested on countless occasions, and educate yourself about Thailand. Stop speculating, Thailand's problems outdate Thaksin, and will stay beyond Thaksin. Thaksin is not the root of Thailand's problems that led to this crises, he is just another part of the problem, as much as the military is, and any other political party, the bureaucracy, ad whatever else.

To see that - you will have to start learning.

Edited June 9, 2007 by ColPyat

[John K]

I agree 100% with both of your reply posts. I am trying to make some sense of the anti junta rallies.

If you want to make sense of what is going on i would strongly suggest to read the many books and studies i have suggested on countless occasions, and educate yourself about Thailand. Stop speculating, Thailand's problems outdate Thaksin, and will stay beyond Thaksin. Thaksin is not the root of Thailand's problems that led to this crises, he is just another part of the problem, as much as the military is, and any other political party, the bureaucracy, ad whatever else.

To see that - you will have to start learning.

I don’t disagree with you about that at all, however as I have said I find it more interesting to predict the next moves. I think Thailand is in a place it has never been before meaning more international because of Thaksin’s business sense. Because of that new school thinking I don’t know how much of the old school thinking can and will apply.

It is very clear to me the junta is not trying to prune the corruption but more like rip it out at the roots. A realistic approach however it will provide a huge shock to Thailand’s infrastructure as much has been integrated into the economy. That may be the motivation behind the anti junta rallies. The people that will be affected the most (corrupt) are crying the loudest and will do what they can to see the old school ways continue. In that sense colpyat I agree with you that history will try to repeat itself.

[ColPyat]

I don’t disagree with you about that at all, however as I have said I find it more interesting to predict the next moves. I think Thailand is in a place it has never been before meaning more international because of Thaksin’s business sense. Because of that new school thinking I don’t know how much of the old school thinking can and will apply.

It is very clear to me the junta is not trying to prune the corruption but more like rip it out at the roots. A realistic approach however it will provide a huge shock to Thailand’s infrastructure as much has been integrated into the economy. That may be the motivation behind the anti junta rallies. The people that will be affected the most (corrupt) are crying the loudest and will do what they can to see the old school ways continue. In that sense colpyat I agree with you that history will try to repeat itself.

I am sorry, but you completely confuse things here. I don't even know where to start as long as you still lack basic knowledge and replace that with pure speculation.

Read some books, goddammit. They are there to be read and learned from, for Christ's sake, and not ignored or used to decorate ones living room or office. Are you poor? I can copy you some of mine, free of charge. But read them.

I have a headache now.

[John K]

I don’t disagree with you about that at all, however as I have said I find it more interesting to predict the next moves. I think Thailand is in a place it has never been before meaning more international because of Thaksin’s business sense. Because of that new school thinking I don’t know how much of the old school thinking can and will apply.

It is very clear to me the junta is not trying to prune the corruption but more like rip it out at the roots. A realistic approach however it will provide a huge shock to Thailand’s infrastructure as much has been integrated into the economy. That may be the motivation behind the anti junta rallies. The people that will be affected the most (corrupt) are crying the loudest and will do what they can to see the old school ways continue. In that sense colpyat I agree with you that history will try to repeat itself.

I am sorry, but you completely confuse things here. I don't even know where to start as long as you still lack basic knowledge and replace that with pure speculation.

Read some books, goddammit. They are there to be read and learned from, for Christ's sake, and not ignored or used to decorate ones living room or office. Are you poor? I can copy you some of mine, free of charge. But read them.

I have a headache now.

Yes actually I would not mind that as long as they are not too long. If you have a summary version it would be nice. Just email them to me. As for the headache, I can fix that too but I need to charge.

[ColPyat]

Yes actually I would not mind that as long as they are not too long. If you have a summary version it would be nice. Just email them to me. As for the headache, I can fix that too but I need to charge.

Sorry, but they are long - that's why they are published as books.

Edited June 9, 2007 by ColPyat

[tettyan]

If I remember correctly one outcome of Chang Nois calculations was that TRT had lost the party list vote, and no matter what Colpyat says, no vote was inspired by PAD.

I remember the Chang Noi article too, but I didn't see any empirical evidence to back up their conspiracy theory.

I prefer to stick with the hard facts.

In 2005, TRT won 19 mil party list votes....

In 2006, they won only 16 mil, down by 3 mil....

But that was still way ahead of what the won in 2001, when the got 11 mil votes...

Some numbers (from a pro-Thaksin blogger, but based on figures from MATICHON newspaper): link

As you can see, while the "No vote" clearly won in Bangkok in the constitutency segment, for the party list segment, TRT and No votes were virtually tied (only 13,000 vote difference).

Edited June 9, 2007 by tettyan

[lukamar]

Yes actually I would not mind that as long as they are not too long.

There are no Cole's Notes for Thai history.

It is very clear to me the junta is not trying to prune the corruption but more like rip it out at the roots.

They are trying to rearrange it, pruning and ending it is all PR Spin. The military has been the most corrupt group in Thai History.

Saw a good bumper sticker today.. " Study your history or you will be condemned to repeating it."

[lukamar]

In 2005, TRT won 19 mil party list votes....

In 2006, they won only 16 mil, down by 3 mil....

But that was still way ahead of what the won in 2001, when the got 11 mil votes...

2001 - first win - 27% popular vote

2005 - Big win - 47% popular vote

2006 - Other parties boycotted and some TRT supporters just did not bother to vote, but still TRT got 40% of the total 3996881 eligible voters.

For John K. - The fact that 40% of the voting population feels they just lost their representatives, their party, their rice subsidies, their village fund, and their health care may well help you make some sense of the anti junta rallies. Thailand has seen nothing yet. Somewhere between 30 and 50% of the voting public has voted for the TRT over the last 6 years, that's huge in any country on earth and they will not go away quietly. In a way protests may defuse the emotion to some degree, if it becomes very quiet that is the time to duck and cover.

[John K]

For John K. - The fact that 40% of the voting population feels they just lost their representatives, their party, their rice subsidies, their village fund, and their health care may well help you make some sense of the anti junta rallies. Thailand has seen nothing yet. Somewhere between 30 and 50% of the voting public has voted for the TRT over the last 6 years, that's huge in any country on earth and they will not go away quietly. In a way protests may defuse the emotion to some degree, if it becomes very quiet that is the time to duck and cover.

OK I can go with that if the makeup of last nights rally was people from villages. I don’t want say if they were or were not rural Thais but that information would be nice to help formulate what may happen next.

Also I was not aware any of the items you said had been removed or in some list pending removal.

Edited June 10, 2007 by John K

[hammered]

For John K. - The fact that 40% of the voting population feels they just lost their representatives, their party, their rice subsidies, their village fund, and their health care may well help you make some sense of the anti junta rallies. Thailand has seen nothing yet. Somewhere between 30 and 50% of the voting public has voted for the TRT over the last 6 years, that's huge in any country on earth and they will not go away quietly. In a way protests may defuse the emotion to some degree, if it becomes very quiet that is the time to duck and cover.

OK I can go with that if the makeup of last nights rally was people from villages. I don’t want say if they were or were not rural Thais but that information would be nice to help formulate what may happen next.

Also I was not aware any of the items you said had been removed or in some list pending removal.

Reading the reports on 2bangkok.com it appears that there have been 2 different types of PTV style rally. The normal PTV rally of a few thousand who tended to be noisy, excited and like chanting. Then there was the Friday rally of 8000 provincial people which was very sedate and quiet and polite and even unenthusiatic. The chances are that Saturday was a mix of both groups.

http://www.2bangkok.com/07/rallies/june8-07.shtml

[lukamar]

OK I can go with that if the makeup of last nights rally was people from villages. I don’t want say if they were or were not rural Thais but that information would be nice to help formulate what may happen next.

From the videos I watched from today I would guess they were not rural people, hard to tell without being there but they did not look like the people I see in the North and Northeast. The daytime footage was a mixed group with a lot of women and kids and the evening footage seemed to have more middle aged men.

While we like to think of the TRT as having a following only from the North and Northeast we have to remember their coverage was across Thailand , less in the South. It should not be of any surprise if they can mobilize people from inside the metro Bangkok area as they swept the Bangkok area in 2005 taking 32 0f 37 seats..

[John K]

It almost sounds like they are responding to some sort of propaganda or other disinformation. However too soon to say and more info is needed. The quickest way is to see what topics made the group vocal. According to the Bangkok post Thaksin was a theme with t-shirts and pictures and that certainly implies paid participants. When is he due in court? I think in 2 weeks or so.

[ColPyat]

It almost sounds like they are responding to some sort of propaganda or other disinformation. However too soon to say and more info is needed. The quickest way is to see what topics made the group vocal. According to the Bangkok post Thaksin was a theme with t-shirts and pictures and that certainly implies paid participants. When is he due in court? I think in 2 weeks or so.

Propaganda and disinformation, Thaksin T-shirts means paid participants?

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

Thaksin T-shirts are on sale at Sanam Luang. Paid participants (even though that issue again is a bit more complex, with many nuances) are a feature in all such demonstration, including the PAD. Propaganda? The perception of many of these people simply is that before Thaksin they have gotten not much, while under Thaksin many long overdue reforms were initiated from which they have benefited. You can't blame them from being angry that many of those benefits were withdrawn after the military takeover.

[lukamar]

propaganda or other disinformation. ....... According to the Bangkok Post ....

There is propaganda or other disinformation from all sides. You have to ask yourself who the big winners and the big losers will be in the end. If the rural poor of Thailand see themselves as the big loser there could be some serious trouble. No one has to pay the rural poor to know they are going to get screwed in the end, that's the thing people do not understand.

Also remember, Thailand does not have a free press and the CNS has warned them all on numerous occasions on the way they should act for the good of the country. Things like closing the radio stations recently has just reminded them who is allowing them to earn their meal ticket.

[John K]

It almost sounds like they are responding to some sort of propaganda or other disinformation. However too soon to say and more info is needed. The quickest way is to see what topics made the group vocal. According to the Bangkok post Thaksin was a theme with t-shirts and pictures and that certainly implies paid participants. When is he due in court? I think in 2 weeks or so.

Propaganda and disinformation, Thaksin T-shirts means paid participants?

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

Thaksin T-shirts are on sale at Sanam Luang. Paid participants (even though that issue again is a bit more complex, with many nuances) are a feature in all such demonstration, including the PAD. Propaganda? The perception of many of these people simply is that before Thaksin they have gotten not much, while under Thaksin many long overdue reforms were initiated from which they have benefited. You can't blame them from being angry that many of those benefits were withdrawn after the military takeover.

Not means, I said implies that changes the statements meaning to be open to the possibility. I also said more information is needed. All I was doing was sharing some initial thoughts based on the little information available. As for what was taken away, can you please list them. As far as I know nothing was removed unless it happened on a day I was not particularly paying attention. Things that were promised and never given, well I can’t say that is Thaksin. From my memory that is true with every politician including from the USA. To rally about losing something that was never in hand is a bit to think about.

[ColPyat]

As far as I know nothing was removed unless it happened on a day I was not particularly paying attention.

On many occasions it was posted that the rice subsidies have been scrapped, resulting in a much lowered income for farmers.

Many populist programs these people have benefited from are in jeopardy, such as the U-athorn scemes for housing, schoarships for the poor, etc.

[ando]

Does the proposed new constitution head off the possibility of another "no vote"?

[slimdog]

Does the proposed new constitution head off the possibility of another "no vote"?

Article 71 of the new Constitution does state that every Thai National must vote, (same as the 1997 Constitution) therefore there will most probably still be a "No-Vote" option on any ballot. However to avoid the possibilities of what happened last year there is a new article (Article 91) which amongst other things states:

In the case where the number of members of the House of Representatives following

a general election is less than 400 but not less than 95 percent of the total number of

members of the House of Representatives, the House of Representatives shall consist of

existing members of the House and election for missing members shall be held until the

total number of 400 is attained.

Under the 1997 constitution ALL seats had to be filled before member could be sworn in, which did make it far easier to cancel the election, as the first sitting of the house had yet to take place, therefore no government to dissolve, (which can only be done with H.M permission).

[sriracha john]

Read some books, goddammit.

1 tablet four times a day.

[sriracha john]

As far as I know nothing was removed unless it happened on a day I was not particularly paying attention.

On many occasions it was posted that the rice subsidies have been scrapped, resulting in a much lowered income for farmers.

Many populist programs these people have benefited from are in jeopardy, such as the U-athorn scemes for housing, schoarships for the poor, etc.

Indeed, these programs filled with corruption and waste of precious resources are thankfully being scrutinized for discontinuance.

[ColPyat]

As far as I know nothing was removed unless it happened on a day I was not particularly paying attention.

On many occasions it was posted that the rice subsidies have been scrapped, resulting in a much lowered income for farmers.

Many populist programs these people have benefited from are in jeopardy, such as the U-athorn scemes for housing, schoarships for the poor, etc.

Indeed, these programs filled with corruption and waste of precious resources are thankfully being scrutinized for discontinuance.

...so we can get back to the old days with programs for the wealthy only, and equally filled with corruption. How could one possibly think about wasting resources for those dirty peasants.

[blaze]

As far as I know nothing was removed unless it happened on a day I was not particularly paying attention.

On many occasions it was posted that the rice subsidies have been scrapped, resulting in a much lowered income for farmers.

Many populist programs these people have benefited from are in jeopardy, such as the U-athorn scemes for housing, schoarships for the poor, etc.

Indeed, these programs filled with corruption and waste of precious resources are thankfully being scrutinized for discontinuance.

If they haven't already been scrutinized- how do you know they were filled with corruption and waste of precious resources?

[John K]

That actually bring us back full circle to who was at the rally. By this account about subsidies it was farmers. But was that what the rally was about? From all indications it was lead by a group of people who are in the process of being investigated for crimes and losing all the money that was never meant to be theirs anyway. Not much to do about the average Thai and what meager crumbs the TRT sent their way after they took their cut. The face of the rally was Anti Junta, but in reality the heart was anti justice.

[tettyan]

As far as I know nothing was removed unless it happened on a day I was not particularly paying attention.

On many occasions it was posted that the rice subsidies have been scrapped, resulting in a much lowered income for farmers.

Many populist programs these people have benefited from are in jeopardy, such as the U-athorn scemes for housing, schoarships for the poor, etc.

Well, the scholarship program isn't just in jeoprady, it's been scrapped completely. Now, the program got some bad press because some students had a very difficult time adapting. But many more struggled hard and managed to do well for themselves. And just as the program was adjusting decently after its growing pains, this gov't cancels the entire program, forcing all these poor students to head home. All that hard work for nothing .... think about how you would all feel?

[jdinasia]

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

Paid participants (even though that issue again is a bit more complex, with many nuances) are a feature in all such demonstration, including the PAD.

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

[ColPyat]

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

Paid participants (even though that issue again is a bit more complex, with many nuances) are a feature in all such demonstration, including the PAD.

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

By staying neutral, and not allowing myself to be blinded by emotionally based political preferences.

[jdinasia]

LOL ...

[lukamar]

The face of the rally was Anti Junta, but in reality the heart was anti justice.

I have to agree with you the big loser in all this in the end will be the Thai justice system. To be more specific the courts. While they applied the rule of law in the TRT case involving the paying of other parties correctly, they applied a decree by a non elected junta retroactively. This act is called ex post facto and is seen as a violation of the rule of law as it applies in a free and democratic society. There are huge implications in this that those outside the legal community do not understand. By doing this they, the appointed court, have applied a decree, not a law, that was not passed into law in parliament by elected officials, retroactively. Retroactive laws have always been avoided in international jurisprudence as it puts the whole system in jeopardy. If a retroactive law causes a defendant to face a larger punishment than he would have under the laws that existed at the time of his alleged crime as there is no way of knowing if the defendant would have committed the crime if he knew in advance of the crime that he/she would face larger punishments. Secondly by applying Announcement #27 the court gave a degree of legitimacy to the coup by taking a decree, not passed into law by an elected parliament, and applying it AS A LAW, in effect telling the country that coups are now acceptable behavior in Thailand. The big loser in the future will be the Thai courts, who have in the past not had the best track record, as those who remember Thaksin 2001 will attest. There has not been a lot of chatter about the dissolution in legal circles but a lot about the ex post facto application of the #27 ruling. The court may have given some legitimacy to the September coup who appointed them, but in doing that the Court lost legitimacy itself and has set a unhealthy precedent that "ex post facto" can be used in Thailand in all manner of cases in the future as the government or a dictatorship sees fit. Unfortunately here, Justice is the big loser in Thailand.

[jdinasia]

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

Paid participants (even though that issue again is a bit more complex, with many nuances) are a feature in all such demonstration, including the PAD.

How do you manage to come up with all that stuff?

By staying neutral, and not allowing myself to be blinded by emotionally based political preferences.

LOL ...

thought I should add to the LOL .... before someone got upset ColPyat you were NEVER nuetral regarding PAD or Thaksin. But to say that all such demonstration <sic> had paid participants is a bit over the top!

Edited June 10, 2007 by jdinasia